System Dynamics Review最新文献_第2页

From text to model: Leveraging natural language processing for system dynamics model development 从文本到模型：利用自然语言处理技术开发系统动力学模型

IF 4.8 3区管理学

System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1780

G. A. Veldhuis, Dominique Blok, Maaike H. T. de Boer, G. J. Kalkman, Roos M. Bakker, Rob P.M. van Waas

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Integrating AI language models in qualitative research: Replicating interview data analysis with ChatGPT 在定性研究中整合人工智能语言模型：用 ChatGPT 复制访谈数据分析

IF 4.8 3区管理学

System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2024-05-22 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1772

Mohammad S. Jalali, Ali Akhavan

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Preparing for pandemic response in the context of limited resources 在资源有限的情况下准备应对大流行病

IF 4.8 3区管理学

System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2024-05-17 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1775

Jair Andrade, B. Beishuizen, M. Stein, Máire Connolly, Jim Duggan

{"title":"Preparing for pandemic response in the context of limited resources","authors":"Jair Andrade, B. Beishuizen, M. Stein, Máire Connolly, Jim Duggan","doi":"10.1002/sdr.1775","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1775","url":null,"abstract":"Pandemics are outbreaks of an infectious disease that increase morbidity and mortality over a wide geographic area. These events require large‐scale interventions from governments and health agencies to curtail transmission within a population. In assessing the impact of these interventions, policymakers avail themselves of simulations from compartmental models. However, it is commonplace that modellers employ fixed fractions to represent interventions, which implicitly assume that resources instantaneously and boundlessly adjust to the desired target and may predict overly optimistic outcomes. Here, we propose a model that integrates four crucial countermeasures subject to resource constraints. We present this structure utilising the concept of small models and frame the simulations in the context of a hypothetical spread of influenza in the Netherlands, drawing on empirical data. After incorporating resource constraints, we find that only a comprehensive response controls the disease. These findings highlight the need for improving strategic plans to support pandemic preparedness. © 2024 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.","PeriodicalId":51500,"journal":{"name":"System Dynamics Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140966244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Developing model‐based storytelling to share systemic insights to the public during the COVID‐19 pandemic 在 COVID-19 大流行期间，开发基于模型的故事讲述方式，向公众分享系统见解

IF 4.8 3区管理学

System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2024-05-16 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1771

Dan Gordon, Ali N. Mashayekhi, Andrada Tomoaia‐Cotisel, Hyunjung Kim, Babak Bahaddin, Luis F. Luna‐Reyes, David F. Andersen

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The lowly constant, elevated 卑微的常数，升高的

IF 4.8 3区管理学

System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2024-05-15 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1774

Leonard A Malczynski

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Generative AI and simulation modeling: how should you (not) use large language models like ChatGPT 生成式人工智能和仿真建模：如何（不）使用 ChatGPT 等大型语言模型

IF 4.8 3区管理学

System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2024-05-13 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1773

Ali Akhavan, Mohammad S. Jalali

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Dealing with soft variables and data scarcity: lessons learnt from quantification in a participatory system dynamics modelling process 处理软变量和数据稀缺问题：从参与式系统动力学建模过程中的量化工作中汲取的经验教训

IF 4.8 3区管理学

System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2024-04-14 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1770

Irene Pluchinotta, Ke Zhou, Nici Zimmermann

{"title":"Dealing with soft variables and data scarcity: lessons learnt from quantification in a participatory system dynamics modelling process","authors":"Irene Pluchinotta, Ke Zhou, Nici Zimmermann","doi":"10.1002/sdr.1770","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1770","url":null,"abstract":"System dynamics (SD) models are commonly used for structuring complex problems to support decision‐making. They are used to investigate areas in which limited knowledge is available, describing nonlinear relationships and including intangible elements. Although this explorative nature is one of the key advantages, it also represents a challenge for quantifying the intangible, i.e. more qualitative aspects of an SD model, especially when it is not possible to apply conventional analytical methods due to data scarcity. Procedures to obtain and analyse information using participatory approaches are limited. First, this article outlines existing quantification methods and related open questions when dealing with soft variables and data scarcity. Secondly, it summarises the quantification process developed during a participatory SD process, describing how we dealt with data scarcity and soft variables. Lastly, we suggest a quantification framework in relation to data availability and level of stakeholder engagement. © 2024 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.","PeriodicalId":51500,"journal":{"name":"System Dynamics Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140592000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Building confidence in exploratory models 建立对探索性模型的信心

IF 4.8 3区管理学

System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2024-04-12 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1769

George P. Richardson

引用次数: 0

A framework for using Theory of Constraints thinking processes and tools to complement qualitative system dynamics modelling 利用约束理论思维过程和工具补充定性系统动力学建模的框架

IF 4.8 3区管理学

System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2024-03-14 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1768

Victoria J. Mabin, Robert Y. Cavana

{"title":"A framework for using Theory of Constraints thinking processes and tools to complement qualitative system dynamics modelling","authors":"Victoria J. Mabin, Robert Y. Cavana","doi":"10.1002/sdr.1768","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1768","url":null,"abstract":"While the tools currently used for qualitative system dynamics (Qual SD) modelling are very powerful in providing a holistic perspective and a framework for understanding complexity and change, they are often not explicitly designed to build and implement long‐term solutions based on that understanding. The Theory of Constraints (TOC) thinking processes and tools focus on these important aspects of the decision‐making process. We provide a six‐stage framework combining selected tools from TOC's thinking process and Qual SD's modelling process to provide a more rigorous systems thinking change process. We illustrate the methods and component tools via a case study on a complex societal issue (sale of alcohol in New Zealand supermarkets) developed for teaching purposes. We demonstrate the value of the framework, highlighting complementarities between tools, and show how specific insights emerged using each of the tools, with more insights resulting from using Qual SD and TOC collectively than separately. © 2024 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.","PeriodicalId":51500,"journal":{"name":"System Dynamics Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140151030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Participatory modeling for high complexity, multi‐system issues: challenges and recommendations for balancing qualitative understanding and quantitative questions 高复杂性、多系统问题的参与式建模：平衡定性理解和定量问题的挑战与建议

IF 4.8 3区管理学

System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2024-02-23 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1765

Arielle R. Deutsch, Leah Frerichs, Madeleine Perry, Mohammad S. Jalali

{"title":"Participatory modeling for high complexity, multi‐system issues: challenges and recommendations for balancing qualitative understanding and quantitative questions","authors":"Arielle R. Deutsch, Leah Frerichs, Madeleine Perry, Mohammad S. Jalali","doi":"10.1002/sdr.1765","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1765","url":null,"abstract":"Community stakeholder participation can be incredibly valuable for the qualitative model development process. However, modelers often encounter challenges for participatory modeling projects focusing on high‐complexity, synergistic interactions between multiple issues, systems, and granularity. The diverse stakeholder perspectives and volumes of information necessary for developing such models can yield qualitative models that are difficult to translate into quantitative simulation or clear insight for informed decision‐making. There are few recommended best practices for developing high‐complexity, participatory models. We use an ongoing project as a case study to highlight three practical challenges for tackling high‐complexity, multi‐system issues with system dynamics tools. These challenges include balanced and respectful stakeholder engagement, defining boundaries and levels of variable aggregation, and timing and processes for qualitative/quantitative model integration. Our five recommendations to address these challenges serve as a foundation for further research on methods for developing translatable qualitative multi‐system models for informing actions for systemic change. © 2024 System Dynamics Society.","PeriodicalId":51500,"journal":{"name":"System Dynamics Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139945799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0