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Dealing with soft variables and data scarcity: lessons learnt from quantification in a participatory system dynamics modelling process 处理软变量和数据稀缺问题：从参与式系统动力学建模过程中的量化工作中汲取的经验教训
IF 4.8 3区 管理学
System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2024-04-14 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1770
Irene Pluchinotta, Ke Zhou, Nici Zimmermann
{"title":"Dealing with soft variables and data scarcity: lessons learnt from quantification in a participatory system dynamics modelling process","authors":"Irene Pluchinotta, Ke Zhou, Nici Zimmermann","doi":"10.1002/sdr.1770","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1770","url":null,"abstract":"System dynamics (SD) models are commonly used for structuring complex problems to support decision‐making. They are used to investigate areas in which limited knowledge is available, describing nonlinear relationships and including intangible elements. Although this explorative nature is one of the key advantages, it also represents a challenge for quantifying the intangible, i.e. more qualitative aspects of an SD model, especially when it is not possible to apply conventional analytical methods due to data scarcity. Procedures to obtain and analyse information using participatory approaches are limited. First, this article outlines existing quantification methods and related open questions when dealing with soft variables and data scarcity. Secondly, it summarises the quantification process developed during a participatory SD process, describing how we dealt with data scarcity and soft variables. Lastly, we suggest a quantification framework in relation to data availability and level of stakeholder engagement. © 2024 The Authors. <jats:italic>System Dynamics Review</jats:italic> published by John Wiley &amp; Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.","PeriodicalId":51500,"journal":{"name":"System Dynamics Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140592000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Building confidence in exploratory models 建立对探索性模型的信心
IF 4.8 3区 管理学
System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2024-04-12 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1769
George P. Richardson
{"title":"Building confidence in exploratory models","authors":"George P. Richardson","doi":"10.1002/sdr.1769","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1769","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51500,"journal":{"name":"System Dynamics Review","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140591413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A framework for using Theory of Constraints thinking processes and tools to complement qualitative system dynamics modelling 利用约束理论思维过程和工具补充定性系统动力学建模的框架
IF 4.8 3区 管理学
System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2024-03-14 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1768
Victoria J. Mabin, Robert Y. Cavana
{"title":"A framework for using Theory of Constraints thinking processes and tools to complement qualitative system dynamics modelling","authors":"Victoria J. Mabin, Robert Y. Cavana","doi":"10.1002/sdr.1768","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1768","url":null,"abstract":"While the tools currently used for qualitative system dynamics (Qual SD) modelling are very powerful in providing a holistic perspective and a framework for understanding complexity and change, they are often not explicitly designed to build and implement long‐term solutions based on that understanding. The Theory of Constraints (TOC) thinking processes and tools focus on these important aspects of the decision‐making process. We provide a six‐stage framework combining selected tools from TOC's thinking process and Qual SD's modelling process to provide a more rigorous systems thinking change process. We illustrate the methods and component tools via a case study on a complex societal issue (sale of alcohol in New Zealand supermarkets) developed for teaching purposes. We demonstrate the value of the framework, highlighting complementarities between tools, and show how specific insights emerged using each of the tools, with more insights resulting from using Qual SD and TOC collectively than separately. © 2024 The Authors. <jats:italic>System Dynamics Review</jats:italic> published by John Wiley &amp; Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.","PeriodicalId":51500,"journal":{"name":"System Dynamics Review","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140151030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Participatory modeling for high complexity, multi‐system issues: challenges and recommendations for balancing qualitative understanding and quantitative questions 高复杂性、多系统问题的参与式建模：平衡定性理解和定量问题的挑战与建议
IF 4.8 3区 管理学
System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2024-02-23 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1765
Arielle R. Deutsch, Leah Frerichs, Madeleine Perry, Mohammad S. Jalali
{"title":"Participatory modeling for high complexity, multi‐system issues: challenges and recommendations for balancing qualitative understanding and quantitative questions","authors":"Arielle R. Deutsch, Leah Frerichs, Madeleine Perry, Mohammad S. Jalali","doi":"10.1002/sdr.1765","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1765","url":null,"abstract":"Community stakeholder participation can be incredibly valuable for the qualitative model development process. However, modelers often encounter challenges for participatory modeling projects focusing on high‐complexity, synergistic interactions between multiple issues, systems, and granularity. The diverse stakeholder perspectives and volumes of information necessary for developing such models can yield qualitative models that are difficult to translate into quantitative simulation or clear insight for informed decision‐making. There are few recommended best practices for developing high‐complexity, participatory models. We use an ongoing project as a case study to highlight three practical challenges for tackling high‐complexity, multi‐system issues with system dynamics tools. These challenges include balanced and respectful stakeholder engagement, defining boundaries and levels of variable aggregation, and timing and processes for qualitative/quantitative model integration. Our five recommendations to address these challenges serve as a foundation for further research on methods for developing translatable qualitative multi‐system models for informing actions for systemic change. © 2024 System Dynamics Society.","PeriodicalId":51500,"journal":{"name":"System Dynamics Review","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139945799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
History of the Beer Game 啤酒游戏的历史
IF 4.8 3区 管理学
System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2024-02-22 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1767
Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano
{"title":"History of the Beer Game","authors":"Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano","doi":"10.1002/sdr.1767","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1767","url":null,"abstract":"This article describes the history of the Beer Game. By triangulating information from literature, archival analysis, and interviews with experts in the field, the main changes in the game over its almost 70-year history are identified. The article discusses three aspects of the game: 1) its structure (phases of its history, stocks and flows, parameters, etc.); 2) the process for playing the game; and 3) the game debrief. The structure of the Beer Game, and the process for running it, have stabilized over the years into what is now a de facto standard approach. Additional work is needed in the game debrief, specifically in the clarification of key insights and messages (depending on the context of the use of the game), in how to communicate such messages to different audiences, and in the development of support materials for its delivery. © 2024 UChicago Argonne, LLC. <i>System Dynamics Review</i> published by John Wiley &amp; Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.","PeriodicalId":51500,"journal":{"name":"System Dynamics Review","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139969174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What is (quantitative) system dynamics modeling? Defining characteristics and the opportunities they create 什么是（定量）系统动力学建模？定义特征及其带来的机遇
IF 4.8 3区 管理学
System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1762
Asmeret Naugle, Saeed Langarudi, Timothy Clancy
{"title":"What is (quantitative) system dynamics modeling? Defining characteristics and the opportunities they create","authors":"Asmeret Naugle, Saeed Langarudi, Timothy Clancy","doi":"10.1002/sdr.1762","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1762","url":null,"abstract":"A clear definition of system dynamics modeling can provide shared understanding and clarify the impact of the field. We introduce a set of characteristics that define quantitative system dynamics, selected to capture core philosophy, describe theoretical and practical principles, and apply to historical work but be flexible enough to remain relevant as the field progresses. The defining characteristics are: (1) models are based on causal feedback structure, (2) accumulations and delays are foundational, (3) models are equation-based, (4) concept of time is continuous, and (5) analysis focuses on feedback dynamics. We discuss the implications of these principles and use them to identify research opportunities in which the system dynamics field can advance. These research opportunities include causality, disaggregation, data science and AI, and contributing to scientific advancement. Progress in these areas has the potential to improve both the science and practice of system dynamics. © 2024 The Authors. <i>System Dynamics Review</i> published by John Wiley &amp; Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.","PeriodicalId":51500,"journal":{"name":"System Dynamics Review","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139768278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Descriptive design structure matrices for improved system dynamics qualitative modeling 用于改进系统动力学定性建模的描述性设计结构矩阵
IF 4.8 3区 管理学
System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2024-01-18 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1764
Rameez R. Qureshi, David N. Ford, Charles M. Wolf
{"title":"Descriptive design structure matrices for improved system dynamics qualitative modeling","authors":"Rameez R. Qureshi, David N. Ford, Charles M. Wolf","doi":"10.1002/sdr.1764","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1764","url":null,"abstract":"Qualitative modeling approaches can be useful in system information collection, model analysis, and formal model development. This is difficult when the number of elements and their interactions in the system is large. System dynamicists need additional tools and methods to conceptually model these large tightly coupled systems. We propose and test the Descriptive Design Structure Matrix (DDSM) as a qualitative system dynamics modeling tool and approach for systems with many elements and more interactions that can reasonably be modeled individually using traditional system dynamics methods. A DDSM consists of four parallel and internally consistent matrices that describe system interactions with binary relations, nontechnical text, technical text, and literature support. By including and documenting system information in multiple forms, DDSMs facilitate multiple stages of system dynamics modeling, improve modeler communication with system participants and domain experts, and improve model rigor. DDSM construction is described. A case study of the 2014 flooding in Kashmir is used to illustrate and test a DDSM and its application. Due to their compact format, DDSMs provide a useful visual communication aid, intuitive reasoning tool, and foundation for formal system dynamics modeling and analysis. © 2024 The Authors. <i>System Dynamics Review</i> published by John Wiley &amp; Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.","PeriodicalId":51500,"journal":{"name":"System Dynamics Review","volume":"201 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139518119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Generative agent‐based modeling: an introduction and tutorial 基于生成代理的建模：介绍和教程
IF 4.8 3区 管理学
System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1761
Navid Ghaffarzadegan, A. Majumdar, Ross Williams, Niyousha Hosseinichimeh
{"title":"Generative agent‐based modeling: an introduction and tutorial","authors":"Navid Ghaffarzadegan, A. Majumdar, Ross Williams, Niyousha Hosseinichimeh","doi":"10.1002/sdr.1761","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1761","url":null,"abstract":"We discuss the emerging new opportunity for building feedback‐rich computational models of social systems using generative artificial intelligence. Referred to as generative agent‐based models (GABMs), such individual‐level models utilize large language models to represent human decision‐making in social settings. We provide a GABM case in which human behavior can be incorporated into simulation models by coupling a mechanistic model of human interactions with a pre‐trained large language model. This is achieved by introducing a simple GABM of social norm diffusion in an organization. For educational purposes, the model is intentionally kept simple. We examine a wide range of scenarios and the sensitivity of the results to several changes in the prompt. We hope the article and the model serve as a guide for building useful dynamic models of various social systems that include realistic human reasoning and decision‐making. © 2024 System Dynamics Society.","PeriodicalId":51500,"journal":{"name":"System Dynamics Review","volume":"86 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139440630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A comparison of loop dominance methods: measures and meaning 环路主导地位方法的比较：测量方法和意义
IF 4.8 3区 管理学
System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2024-01-07 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1757
John Hayward, Paul A. Roach
{"title":"A comparison of loop dominance methods: measures and meaning","authors":"John Hayward, Paul A. Roach","doi":"10.1002/sdr.1757","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1757","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51500,"journal":{"name":"System Dynamics Review","volume":"15 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139448621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Techniques to enhance the public policy impact of qualitative system dynamics models 增强定性系统动力学模型对公共政策影响的技术
IF 4.8 3区 管理学
System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2023-12-26 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1758
G.A. (Guido) Veldhuis, E.M. (Eefje) Smits-Clijsen, R.P.M. (Rob) van Waas
{"title":"Techniques to enhance the public policy impact of qualitative system dynamics models","authors":"G.A. (Guido) Veldhuis, E.M. (Eefje) Smits-Clijsen, R.P.M. (Rob) van Waas","doi":"10.1002/sdr.1758","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1758","url":null,"abstract":"This article demonstrates techniques to enhance the public policy impact of qualitative system dynamics models. We focus on the effective use of a large causal loop diagram (CLD) to explore a multifaceted problem situation. We discuss the conditions that can lead to developing a large CLD, the challenges this presents, and techniques that can be used to overcome them. Several techniques are discussed related to an online group model-building (GMB) process, the use of quantitative data, visual model analyses using a software tool and reporting. The techniques are demonstrated using an impactful case study on the social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We reflect on the efficacy of the approach through the lens of systems thinking and conclude that the techniques made a positive contribution to all aspects of systems thinking. Several avenues for future work are discussed. © 2023 The Authors. <i>System Dynamics Review</i> published by John Wiley &amp; Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.","PeriodicalId":51500,"journal":{"name":"System Dynamics Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139067237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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