增强定性系统动力学模型对公共政策影响的技术

IF 1.7 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2023-12-26 DOI:10.1002/sdr.1758

G.A. (Guido) Veldhuis, E.M. (Eefje) Smits-Clijsen, R.P.M. (Rob) van Waas

{"title":"增强定性系统动力学模型对公共政策影响的技术","authors":"G.A. (Guido) Veldhuis, E.M. (Eefje) Smits-Clijsen, R.P.M. (Rob) van Waas","doi":"10.1002/sdr.1758","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This article demonstrates techniques to enhance the public policy impact of qualitative system dynamics models. We focus on the effective use of a large causal loop diagram (CLD) to explore a multifaceted problem situation. We discuss the conditions that can lead to developing a large CLD, the challenges this presents, and techniques that can be used to overcome them. Several techniques are discussed related to an online group model-building (GMB) process, the use of quantitative data, visual model analyses using a software tool and reporting. The techniques are demonstrated using an impactful case study on the social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We reflect on the efficacy of the approach through the lens of systems thinking and conclude that the techniques made a positive contribution to all aspects of systems thinking. Several avenues for future work are discussed. © 2023 The Authors. <i>System Dynamics Review</i> published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.","PeriodicalId":51500,"journal":{"name":"System Dynamics Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Techniques to enhance the public policy impact of qualitative system dynamics models\",\"authors\":\"G.A. (Guido) Veldhuis, E.M. (Eefje) Smits-Clijsen, R.P.M. (Rob) van Waas\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/sdr.1758\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This article demonstrates techniques to enhance the public policy impact of qualitative system dynamics models. We focus on the effective use of a large causal loop diagram (CLD) to explore a multifaceted problem situation. We discuss the conditions that can lead to developing a large CLD, the challenges this presents, and techniques that can be used to overcome them. Several techniques are discussed related to an online group model-building (GMB) process, the use of quantitative data, visual model analyses using a software tool and reporting. The techniques are demonstrated using an impactful case study on the social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We reflect on the efficacy of the approach through the lens of systems thinking and conclude that the techniques made a positive contribution to all aspects of systems thinking. Several avenues for future work are discussed. © 2023 The Authors. <i>System Dynamics Review</i> published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.\",\"PeriodicalId\":51500,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"System Dynamics Review\",\"volume\":\"1 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-12-26\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"System Dynamics Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"91\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1758\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"管理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"MANAGEMENT\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"System Dynamics Review","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1758","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"MANAGEMENT","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

本文展示了增强定性系统动力学模型对公共政策影响的技术。我们重点探讨了如何有效利用大型因果循环图（CLD）来探索多方面的问题情境。我们讨论了开发大型因果循环图的条件、所面临的挑战以及可以用来克服这些挑战的技术。我们讨论了与在线小组模型构建（GMB）过程、定量数据的使用、使用软件工具进行可视化模型分析以及报告有关的几种技术。我们通过一个关于 COVID-19 大流行病社会影响的案例研究来展示这些技术。我们从系统思维的角度反思了该方法的有效性，并得出结论：这些技术对系统思维的各个方面都做出了积极贡献。我们还讨论了未来工作的若干途径。© 2023 作者。系统动力学评论》由 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 代表系统动力学学会出版。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Techniques to enhance the public policy impact of qualitative system dynamics models

This article demonstrates techniques to enhance the public policy impact of qualitative system dynamics models. We focus on the effective use of a large causal loop diagram (CLD) to explore a multifaceted problem situation. We discuss the conditions that can lead to developing a large CLD, the challenges this presents, and techniques that can be used to overcome them. Several techniques are discussed related to an online group model-building (GMB) process, the use of quantitative data, visual model analyses using a software tool and reporting. The techniques are demonstrated using an impactful case study on the social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We reflect on the efficacy of the approach through the lens of systems thinking and conclude that the techniques made a positive contribution to all aspects of systems thinking. Several avenues for future work are discussed. © 2023 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

System Dynamics Review Multiple-

CiteScore

6.60

自引率

8.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： The System Dynamics Review exists to communicate to a wide audience advances in the application of the perspectives and methods of system dynamics to societal, technical, managerial, and environmental problems. The Review publishes: advances in mathematical modelling and computer simulation of dynamic feedback systems; advances in methods of policy analysis based on information feedback and circular causality; generic structures (dynamic feedback systems that support particular widely applicable behavioural insights); system dynamics contributions to theory building in the social and natural sciences; policy studies and debate emphasizing the role of feedback and circular causality in problem behaviour.