{"title":"Avoiding atmospheric anarchy: Geoengineering as a source of interstate tension","authors":"William Morrissey","doi":"10.1177/27538796231221597","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/27538796231221597","url":null,"abstract":"Idealized climate modeling of geoengineering, notably including stratospheric aerosol injection, routinely frames the practice as the provision of a global public good in the absence of geopolitical context. This study argues that the situation of geoengineering governance within individual state governments combined with the technology’s substantial, unforeseeable consequences present a potential security dilemma that heightens tensions between states and risks conflict, including potential environmental catastrophe. Initially, there is a brief overview of geoengineering technology and the associated concerns before highlighting four elements of the technology that potentially generate interstate tension: the potential for independent action, low costs, ambiguity surrounding deployment, and the possibility of counter-geoengineering. This is followed by a discussion of four speculative geoengineering scenarios intended to illustrate the complexity of potential geoengineering impacts on states’ strategic thinking and risks associated with solar geoengineering. The article outlines four scenarios derived by isolating the availability of counter-geoengineering and the controllability of geoengineering as drivers for contesting strategic climate outcomes. The scenarios emphasize possible geopolitical tensions that could emerge under geoengineering, encouraging further study of potential geoengineering efforts within international security.","PeriodicalId":513221,"journal":{"name":"Environment and Security","volume":"14 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139867925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Avoiding atmospheric anarchy: Geoengineering as a source of interstate tension","authors":"William Morrissey","doi":"10.1177/27538796231221597","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/27538796231221597","url":null,"abstract":"Idealized climate modeling of geoengineering, notably including stratospheric aerosol injection, routinely frames the practice as the provision of a global public good in the absence of geopolitical context. This study argues that the situation of geoengineering governance within individual state governments combined with the technology’s substantial, unforeseeable consequences present a potential security dilemma that heightens tensions between states and risks conflict, including potential environmental catastrophe. Initially, there is a brief overview of geoengineering technology and the associated concerns before highlighting four elements of the technology that potentially generate interstate tension: the potential for independent action, low costs, ambiguity surrounding deployment, and the possibility of counter-geoengineering. This is followed by a discussion of four speculative geoengineering scenarios intended to illustrate the complexity of potential geoengineering impacts on states’ strategic thinking and risks associated with solar geoengineering. The article outlines four scenarios derived by isolating the availability of counter-geoengineering and the controllability of geoengineering as drivers for contesting strategic climate outcomes. The scenarios emphasize possible geopolitical tensions that could emerge under geoengineering, encouraging further study of potential geoengineering efforts within international security.","PeriodicalId":513221,"journal":{"name":"Environment and Security","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139808213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Laurence L. Delina, Jon Gaviola, Homer Pagkalinawan
{"title":"Unveiling the climate–conflict nexus: Examining the influence of weather extremes on conflict emergence in the Philippine Bangsamoro","authors":"Laurence L. Delina, Jon Gaviola, Homer Pagkalinawan","doi":"10.1177/27538796241226780","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/27538796241226780","url":null,"abstract":"Extreme weather events have been closely associated with the escalation of violent conflicts. This article introduces empirical evidence that underscores the vulnerability of conflict emergence to extended deficit rainfall values within Maguindanao, a province situated in the Bangsamoro region of the southern Philippines. Using a combination of satellite data, hydrological analysis and an examination of conflict databases, our study unveils the pivotal role played by protracted droughts and intensified precipitation in fostering human insecurity, consequently elevating the likelihood of violent conflicts. Our research spotlights the climate–conflict nexus within this relatively less-explored geographical area. Our findings underscore a robust association between instances of violent conflicts, protracted deficits or episodes of intense rainfall, and the subsequent surge in food prices. Notably, disruptions in food prices align temporally with heightened participation in violent conflicts by individuals. In essence, the emergence of violent conflicts exacerbates fragility, thereby engendering a vicious cycle that intertwines climate change, conflict dynamics and the pursuit of peace.","PeriodicalId":513221,"journal":{"name":"Environment and Security","volume":" 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139616915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"When are peacekeepers “green?”","authors":"Tobias Böhmelt","doi":"10.1177/27538796231221176","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/27538796231221176","url":null,"abstract":"Although the focus of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations (PKOs) remains peace and security, missions may also have an environmental orientation. Such an emphasis is usually based on environmental goals and activities in operation mandates or deployed units on the ground dedicated to environmental matters. A “green” mission orientation can strengthen peacekeepers’ commitment to environmental protection and help promote environmental quality in host countries. However, little is known about what leads to an environmental mission orientation in the first place. This research contributes to addressing this question as I analyze the mission orientation of African PKOs since 1991. Consistent with the general rationale that interventions tend to strategically select themselves into the more difficult cases, I report evidence that peacekeepers are more likely to have a green orientation when host countries are more exposed to climate change and environmental stress. The analysis is complemented by a short qualitative study of UN peacekeeping in Somalia.","PeriodicalId":513221,"journal":{"name":"Environment and Security","volume":"66 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139386164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}