Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy最新文献

The Monetary Trilemma Need Not Hold in the Short Run: The Case of Hong Kong 货币三难困境在短期内不必成立：香港案例

Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993324500182

Shan Xue, Thomas D. Willett

{"title":"The Monetary Trilemma Need Not Hold in the Short Run: The Case of Hong Kong","authors":"Shan Xue, Thomas D. Willett","doi":"10.1142/s1793993324500182","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993324500182","url":null,"abstract":"The monetary trilemma autonomy has been at the heart of a great deal of international monetary analysis. It implies that countries with fixed exchange rates and no capital controls will lose monetary autonomy. What is often not recognized, however, is that the trilemma need not hold in the short run. If capital mobility is less than perfect, then countries can sterilize reserve flows and maintain a degree of monetary autonomy in the short run. Hong Kong has perfect conditions for the trilemma to hold even in the short run. It is a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate and no major capital controls. If the trilemma does not hold for Hong Kong in the short run, then it is likely to not hold for many other countries either. We investigate this issue using two approaches. One is to estimate the effects of changes in US interest rates on those in Hong Kong. As with earlier literature, we find that the pass-through is substantially less than one, indicating imperfect capital mobility. The second is to estimate whether Hong Kong has been able to engage in some degree of sterilization. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority uses a measure of the monetary base that differs from the standard International Monetary Fund definition. We test both measures and find evidence of partial sterilization of international reserve flows. These tests indicate that Hong Kong does have a degree of short-term monetary autonomy.","PeriodicalId":513187,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy","volume":"17 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141802866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Job Flow Patterns and Productivity Dynamics in Turkish Manufacturing 土耳其制造业的工作流程模式和生产力动态

Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993324500121

E. Dogan, M. Q. Islam, Mehmet Yazici

{"title":"Job Flow Patterns and Productivity Dynamics in Turkish Manufacturing","authors":"E. Dogan, M. Q. Islam, Mehmet Yazici","doi":"10.1142/s1793993324500121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993324500121","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we analyze the job creation and destruction process, and the productivity dynamics in Turkish manufacturing by size, export status, import status and ownership by using a comprehensive firm-level dataset for the period of 2010–2015. Our focus is on the effect of turnover, which is due to the entry and exit of firms, on both job flows and industrial productivity growth. Our results show that while small firms contribute most to job creation, it is the large firms that contribute most to productivity growth. Regarding ownership, domestic private firms perform better than foreign firms in both job creation and productivity growth. With respect to export status, even though non-exporters outperform exporters in job creation, exporters dominate the productivity growth. As for import status, in job creation, like in the case of export status, non-importers do better but in productivity growth, unlike in the export status, no group of firms dominate, more specifically importers’ and non-importers’ contributions are close to each other. Another interesting finding is that, turnover effect on industry productivity is positive but very low. The role of incumbent firms in generating productivity growth is much higher than that of entering and exiting firms.","PeriodicalId":513187,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy","volume":" 28","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141675882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

GVCs Embeddedness and Its Effects on Industrial Productivity: Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industries 全球价值链嵌入性及其对工业生产力的影响：土耳其制造业的证据

Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993324500170

Fatih Cemil Özbuğday, Shahid Mahmood Waqar

引用次数: 0

Identifying Fraud Financial Reports Based on Signs of Income Management Using Machine Learning Technology: The Case of Listed Companies in Vietnam 利用机器学习技术根据收入管理迹象识别欺诈性财务报告：越南上市公司案例

Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2024-05-09 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993324500133

Nguyen Anh Phong, P. H. Tam, Nguyen Thanh Tung

引用次数: 0

Understanding the Factors That Influence Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey: Exploring the Impact of Country Risks and Geopolitical Risk 了解影响土耳其外商直接投资的因素：探索国家风险和地缘政治风险的影响

Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2024-05-04 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993324500145

D. B. Kalmaz, T. Adebayo

{"title":"Understanding the Factors That Influence Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey: Exploring the Impact of Country Risks and Geopolitical Risk","authors":"D. B. Kalmaz, T. Adebayo","doi":"10.1142/s1793993324500145","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993324500145","url":null,"abstract":"The primary objective of this study is to investigate the determinants of foreign direct investment, with a specific focus on per capita GDP (GDP), alongside various risk factors including economic risk (ER), financial risk (FR), political risk (PR), and geopolitical risk (GPR), in the context of Turkey. This investigation employs an innovative wavelet methodology to analyze the relationships among these variables. The empirical analysis entails the application of wavelet coherence, as well as multiple wavelet coherence (MWC) and partial wavelet coherence (PWC) techniques, to evaluate the strength and significance of relationships between different time series while considering the influence of other related time series. Utilizing quarterly data spanning from 1988Q1 to 2020Q4, this study seeks to fill a gap in the existing literature by examining the nexus between these factors in both time and frequency domains, a novel approach in this field. The findings from the wavelet coherence analysis reveal that GDP, PR, FR, and ER positively impact FDI inflows, whereas GPR exerts a negative influence across various time and frequency intervals. Moreover, the outcomes of MWC and PWC analyses underscore the significant effects of the control variables on the relationships under investigation. Based on these findings, the study puts forth noteworthy policy implications aimed at fostering a more conducive environment for FDI in Turkey.","PeriodicalId":513187,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy","volume":"95 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141013513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impact of ISO 14000 on Energy Intensity of Manufacturing Plants in India ISO 14000 对印度制造工厂能源强度的影响

Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2024-05-04 DOI: 10.1142/s179399332450011x

B. Goldar, Amrita Goldar

引用次数: 0

Validating India’s Withdrawal from RCEP and Its Regional Future 验证印度退出 RCEP 及其区域未来

Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2024-04-03 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500229

Monika Jain

{"title":"Validating India’s Withdrawal from RCEP and Its Regional Future","authors":"Monika Jain","doi":"10.1142/s1793993323500229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993323500229","url":null,"abstract":"The withdrawal of India from negotiations on the world’s largest trade pact, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), in November 2019 was a major setback for proponents of regional economic unity. This paper tries to evaluate India’s concerns and also the way forward for India. A review of trade between RCEP countries post-implementation is done to analyze India’s stand against joining the block. India decided to opt out of the agreement because of adverse trade balance, impact on the dairy sector, economic slowdown, experience with Free trade agreements (FTAs), China factor, data localization, rules of origin, and the experience of ASEAN countries with Sino-FTA have been some of the factors responsible for this decision. Bilateral trade agreements with Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Korea, Rep.and ASEAN were already in place. So, trade between India and 12 RCEP member countries would not have changed after India’s inclusion in RCEP. There was fear of a massive surge in imported manufactures from China and dairy imports from Australia and New Zealand. This paper also evaluates the long-term repercussions of this decision and whether India missed out on becoming part of the global value chain & having greater market access through this block. India’s experience following protectionist policies did not yield the desired results in the past. So, an in-depth analysis has been done to validate if India has made a mistake by not joining RCEP or if India’s concerns and fears were justified and its regional future.","PeriodicalId":513187,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy","volume":"60 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140747289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Tale of Two Trilemmas: Comparing the International Monetary and Financial Trilemmas 两个难题的故事：比较国际货币和金融难题

Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2024-03-26 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993324500078

Thomas D. Willett, Graham Bird

{"title":"A Tale of Two Trilemmas: Comparing the International Monetary and Financial Trilemmas","authors":"Thomas D. Willett, Graham Bird","doi":"10.1142/s1793993324500078","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993324500078","url":null,"abstract":"We critically analyze and compare the analytical structures of the international monetary and financial trilemmas. The first structure says that countries cannot have all three of fixed exchange rates, free capital mobility, and monetary autonomy. The second argues that countries cannot have all three of financial globalization, absence of financial crises, and financial autonomy. While the monetary trilemma is often described as being based on the Mundell–Fleming model, this is true only under the assumption of perfect capital mobility. Imperfect mobility can be caused by factors other than capital controls and in this case the constraints of the monetary trilemma need not be binding in the short run. In order to have a mechanism to provide balance of payments equilibrium, however, the theory of economic policy demonstrates that the monetary trilemma must be binding in the long run. While pointing to an important issue the financial trilemma formulation does not provide the most useful way to analyze the tradeoffs generated by financial globalization. More useful for this purpose is the literature on international externalities and public goods. We also argue that for many countries, giving up monetary autonomy will be more costly than giving up financial policy autonomy.","PeriodicalId":513187,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy","volume":"120 37","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140380901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

DFQF Market Access Schemes Offered by the QUAD Countries to Least Developed Countries’ Products and the Volatility of the Utilization Rate of these Schemes QUAD 国家向最不发达国家产品提供的 DFQF 市场准入计划和这些计划利用率的波动情况

Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2024-03-26 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993327500013

S. Gnangnon

{"title":"DFQF Market Access Schemes Offered by the QUAD Countries to Least Developed Countries’ Products and the Volatility of the Utilization Rate of these Schemes","authors":"S. Gnangnon","doi":"10.1142/s1793993327500013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993327500013","url":null,"abstract":"Members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) have been keen in supporting the integration of the least developed countries (LDCs) into the global trading system. A major Decision adopted by WTO Trade Ministers in favor of LDCs was the one concerning the Duty-Free-Quota-Free (DFQF) market access for products originating in LDCs. This paper investigates whether the DFQF market access schemes offered by the Quadrilateral (i.e., Canada, the European Union, Japan and the United States) to LDCs have helped reduce the volatility of the utilization rates of these generous preferences. To perform the analysis, we compare LDCs’ performance in terms of the volatility of the utilization rate of the DFQF market access schemes with countries that would have been included in the LDC category but were not. These countries did not enjoy the benefits of the DFQF schemes, as their products received less generous preferential treatment than LDCs’ products. The comparison of the performance of LDCs with this set of countries was made over the period 2014-2019 versus the period 2004–2013. Results have revealed that the DFQF market access initiative has genuinely been instrumental in reducing the volatility of the utilization rate of these generous preferences schemes by LDCs. Moreover, countries with higher utilization rates of GSP programs experience a larger negative effect of the DFQF schemes on the volatility of the utilization of GSP programs than countries with lower utilization rates of these programs. The policy implications of the analysis are discussed.","PeriodicalId":513187,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy","volume":"101 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140379755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Impact of Participating in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement and Potential Export Markets for Vietnamese Rice: An Application of Augmented Gravity Model 参与《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）对越南大米潜在出口市场的影响：增强引力模型的应用

Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2024-03-06 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993324500042

Jadhav Chakradhar, Trinh Thanh Thao

{"title":"The Impact of Participating in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement and Potential Export Markets for Vietnamese Rice: An Application of Augmented Gravity Model","authors":"Jadhav Chakradhar, Trinh Thanh Thao","doi":"10.1142/s1793993324500042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993324500042","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we investigate the potential effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement on Vietnam’s rice exports from 2000 to 2016. For this analysis, we employ the panel data augmented gravity model with some modifications. The estimated results suggest a positive relationship between Vietnam’s per capita export and the capita real gross domestic product (GDP) of the importer, Vietnam’s rice production, export price, and ASEAN dummy. We confirm that there is a negative relationship between Vietnam’s per capita rice export value and import country agricultural land and import tariffs. Additionally, this paper forecasts Vietnam’s rice export value per capita at each market in RCEP partners by using the autoregressive model. Our forecast results show that among RCEP members, Vietnam has potential markets if import tariff reductions are lowered in Singapore, Brunei, Korea, Japan, and Malaysia. To reap the benefits of rice exports’ potential, Vietnam must move from low-grade and cheap rice to high-quality rice production instead of expanding rice production and exports with the following implications: changing its present rice trading partners to potential markets and adopting market-oriented policies to meet the international demand and to increase the export elasticity of rice.","PeriodicalId":513187,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy","volume":"104 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140260966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0