Validating India’s Withdrawal from RCEP and Its Regional Future

Monika Jain
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Abstract

The withdrawal of India from negotiations on the world’s largest trade pact, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), in November 2019 was a major setback for proponents of regional economic unity. This paper tries to evaluate India’s concerns and also the way forward for India. A review of trade between RCEP countries post-implementation is done to analyze India’s stand against joining the block. India decided to opt out of the agreement because of adverse trade balance, impact on the dairy sector, economic slowdown, experience with Free trade agreements (FTAs), China factor, data localization, rules of origin, and the experience of ASEAN countries with Sino-FTA have been some of the factors responsible for this decision. Bilateral trade agreements with Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Korea, Rep.and ASEAN were already in place. So, trade between India and 12 RCEP member countries would not have changed after India’s inclusion in RCEP. There was fear of a massive surge in imported manufactures from China and dairy imports from Australia and New Zealand. This paper also evaluates the long-term repercussions of this decision and whether India missed out on becoming part of the global value chain & having greater market access through this block. India’s experience following protectionist policies did not yield the desired results in the past. So, an in-depth analysis has been done to validate if India has made a mistake by not joining RCEP or if India’s concerns and fears were justified and its regional future.
验证印度退出 RCEP 及其区域未来
印度于 2019 年 11 月退出世界上最大的贸易协定--区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP)的谈判,这对区域经济统一的支持者来说是一个重大挫折。本文试图评估印度的担忧以及印度的未来之路。本文回顾了 RCEP 实施后各国之间的贸易情况,分析了印度反对加入该地区的立场。印度决定退出该协定的原因包括:不利的贸易平衡、对乳制品行业的影响、经济放缓、自由贸易协定(FTAs)的经验、中国因素、数据本地化、原产地规则以及东盟国家在中国-自由贸易协定方面的经验。印度已经与日本、马来西亚、新加坡、泰国、韩国和东盟签订了双边贸易协定。因此,在印度加入 RCEP 后,印度与 12 个 RCEP 成员国之间的贸易不会发生变化。人们担心从中国进口的制成品以及从澳大利亚和新西兰进口的乳制品会大量激增。本文还评估了这一决定的长期影响,以及印度是否错过了成为全球价值链的一部分并通过这一区块获得更多市场准入的机会。印度过去实施保护主义政策的经验并未取得预期效果。因此,我们进行了深入分析,以验证印度不加入 RCEP 是否犯了错误,或者印度的担忧和恐惧是否合理,以及印度的地区未来。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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