Geomatics Natural Hazards & Risk最新文献

{"title":"An integrated quantitative and qualitative approach for landslide susceptibility mapping in West Sikkim district, Indian Himalaya","authors":"Prakash Biswakarma, Varun Joshi, Hazem Ghassan Abdo, Hussein Almohamad, Ahmed Abdullah Al Dughairi, Motrih Al-Mutiry","doi":"10.1080/19475705.2023.2273781","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2023.2273781","url":null,"abstract":"Landslides rank as the third most common natural disaster globally, and the Indian Himalaya Region is no exception, experiencing severe impacts during the rainy season. This study focuses on creating a comparative landslide susceptibility map for the West Sikkim district in India using probabilistic and heuristic approaches. The frequency ratio (FR) and information value (IV) methods are employed for the probabilistic approach, while the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used for the heuristic approach. Eleven factors are considered in the analysis. The resulting landslide susceptibility (LS) map demonstrates accuracies of 77% for FR, 74% for IV, and 57% for AHP methods. Preliminary qualitative risk assessment is conducted, incorporating building and population density, as population and buildings are the most vulnerable elements in the society. The LS map with the highest accuracy (from FR) serves as the landslide potential factor, combined with building and population density as the risk damage potential factors for risk zonation. The resulting risk zonation map classifies the study area into high-risk (3%), medium-risk (14%), and low-risk (83%) zones. This study primarily addresses the 3% high-risk area where landslides pose a significant threat to population and infrastructure, aiming to inform policy implementation and mitigation measures.","PeriodicalId":51283,"journal":{"name":"Geomatics Natural Hazards & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135271723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Random forest-based multi-hazard loss estimation using hypothetical data at seismic and tsunami monitoring networks","authors":"Yao Li, Katsuichiro Goda","doi":"10.1080/19475705.2023.2275538","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2023.2275538","url":null,"abstract":"This article presents a novel approach to estimate multi-hazard loss in a post-event situation, resulting from cascading earthquake and tsunami events with machine learning for the first time. The proposed methodology combines the power of random forest (RF) with data that are simulated at seismic and tsunami monitoring locations. The RF model is well-suited for predicting highly nonlinear multi-hazard loss because of its nonparametric regression and ensemble learning capabilities. The study targets the cities of Iwanuma and Onagawa in Tohoku, Japan, where seismic and tsunami monitoring networks have been deployed. To encompass a diverse range of future multi-hazard loss estimation, an RF model is constructed based on 4000 simulated earthquake events with peak ground velocity and tsunami wave amplitude captured at ground-motion monitoring sites and offshore wave monitoring sensors, respectively. The incorporation of 10 ground-motion monitoring sites and five offshore wave monitoring sensors significantly enhances the model’s forecasting power, leading to a notable 60% decrease in mean squared error and 20% increase in the R2 value compared to scenarios where no monitoring sensors are utilized. By harnessing the capabilities of RF and leveraging detailed sensing data, RF achieves R2 values over 90%, which can contribute to enhanced disaster risk management.","PeriodicalId":51283,"journal":{"name":"Geomatics Natural Hazards & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135221192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Real-time flash flood forecasting approach for development of early warning systems: integrated hydrological and meteorological application","authors":"Joško Trošelj, Sridhara Nayak, Lena Hobohm, Tetsuya Takemi","doi":"10.1080/19475705.2023.2269295","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2023.2269295","url":null,"abstract":"This study proposes an integrated hydrometeorological modelling framework approach and methodology for flash flood Early Warning Systems in the Chugoku region of Japan. Unprecedented rainfall-induced hydrometeorological disasters and flash floods are increasingly occurring worldwide. Comprehensive efforts are conducted to simultaneously combine multiple disciplines into integrated modelling framework approaches to reduce disaster resilience. This enables more accurate hindcasts, reanalyses, real-time forecasts or nowcasts for flash floods. This study integrates proposed hydrological calibration approach with meteorological input. Two real-time rainfall forecasts by the Weather Research and Forecasting model forced by the Atmospheric Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA55) were used as input data to the hydrological model ensemble parameterized previously. This approach was applied to seven major rivers to evaluate river discharges real-time forecasts accuracy during the Heavy Rainfall Event of July 2018. Long lead-times of up to 29 h with a satisfactory reproducible range of Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency were obtained using both meteorological forecast for all rivers cumulatively. This indicates that the proposed integrated hydrometeorological approach enables accurate flash flood real-time forecasting for this event. Similarly, the joint hydrometeorological approach enables framework for development of real-time flash food forecasting application in Japan and presumably worldwide.","PeriodicalId":51283,"journal":{"name":"Geomatics Natural Hazards & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136311493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mechanism of rock burst in deep gob-side entry based on dynamic and static stress: a case study","authors":"Zepeng Han, Linming Dou, Siyuan Gong, Jiliang Kan, Shuai Chen, Xiaoyi He","doi":"10.1080/19475705.2023.2271636","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2023.2271636","url":null,"abstract":"Deep gob-side entry (DGSE) shows rock burst risk under the condition of kilometer depth and hard roof. Based on the established conditions of the Tengdong coal mine, theoretical analysis, microseismic (MS) monitoring, and numerical modeling were used to study the rock burst mechanism of DGSE. Results show that MS events mainly occurred on the solid side of DGSE and the intense dynamic load was mainly caused by the breaking of low hard roof strata, which can release 2.64 × 105 J elastic energy per meter. The surrounding stress of DGSE was asymmetrical due to the coal pillar yielding and hanging roof’s weight, and the load of coal pillar is negatively correlated with that of solid. Simulation shows the vertical stress evolution of coal pillar and solid shows significant diversity. Coal pillar’s vertical stress first drops sharply, and then increases gradually, finally stable at 10.6 MPa with the DGSE’s excavation. Contrarily, solid’s vertical stress gradually rises and was finally stable at 40.9 MPa. Under roof dynamic loading, the vibration velocity of the entry’s top was higher than that of the floor which was caused by the increase of the propagation distance and the reflection and diffraction effect of waves. The vibration velocity of the coal pillar was significantly higher than that of the solid which is because higher stress can lead to faster attenuation of vibration velocity. After dynamic loading, the coal pillar’s principal stress and principal stress difference decreased while that of the solid can be divided into two drop areas and one rising area. Periodic pressure relief that was carried out in the rising area can reduce the rock burst risk on the solid side of DGSE.","PeriodicalId":51283,"journal":{"name":"Geomatics Natural Hazards & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136311876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Land use and climate change-induced soil erosion mapping in a sub-tropical environment","authors":"Subodh Chandra Pal, Rabin Chakrabortty, Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam, Paramita Roy, Indrajit Chowdhuri, Asish Saha, Aznarul Islam, Romulus Costache, Edris Alam","doi":"10.1080/19475705.2023.2270129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2023.2270129","url":null,"abstract":"One of the most important aspects of the ‘sub-tropical’ monsoon-influenced environment is the issue of ‘soil erosion’ and its related ‘land degradation’. On the other hand, the climate in this area has become quite extreme. According to this viewpoint, it is important to research a future ‘soil erosion’ scenario in front of the probable effects of climate change and land use change. For the objective of assessing the extent of soil erosion in this area, this study took into account both the USLE and the RUSLE. Compared to the USLE that has been validated, RUSLE has a comparatively greater quantitative efficiency. In RUSLE, the ‘very high’ (>20) and ‘high’ (15–20) ‘soil erosion’ zones tend to be associated with the ‘north-western, western, south-western, and southern’ regions of the river basin. The ‘soil erosion’ that will occur in the future has been estimated by taking into account the projected rainfall, land use and land cover (LULC). ‘Soil erosion’ has increased from the previous time to the projected time. Predicted R factor values for SSP 585 range from 399.92 to 493.72. In addition, a growing erosion tendency associated with increased shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) has been found.","PeriodicalId":51283,"journal":{"name":"Geomatics Natural Hazards & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136261553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigation of landslide dam life span using prediction models based on multiple machine learning algorithms","authors":"Hao Wu, Tingkai Nian, Zhigang Shan","doi":"10.1080/19475705.2023.2273213","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2023.2273213","url":null,"abstract":"A rapid and accurate prediction of a landslide dam’s life span is of significant importance for emergency geological treatment. However, current prediction models for the state of a landslide dam are based solely on geomorphological indexes, and do not take into consideration attribute properties such as landslide types, trigger factors, and dam types. This study investigates the relationships between a landslide dam’s geometry and the capacity of the barrier lake and proposes fitting models, which supplement the current landslide dam database. Subsequently, six predictive models for landslide dam life span are established, utilizing machine learning algorithms such as logistic regression, k-nearest neighbors, support vector machine, Naïve Bayes, decision tree, and random forest, which consider five factors, including geometry parameters and attribute properties. The performances of these six models are analyzed and compared to a typical prediction model, the dimensionless blockage index (DBI). The results suggest that the models established in this study not only have a consistent absolute accuracy as the DBI model, but also overcome the disadvantage that a large number of cases cannot be judged by the DBI model. Among the formulated machine learning models, the random forest model exhibits the highest absolute accuracy (89%), lowest error rate (7%), lowest false alarm rate (15%), and no uncertainty rate. Additionally, three renowned landslide dams, namely the Costantino, Hsiaolin, and Baige landslide dams, are analyzed to illustrate the applicability of the established machine learning models. The study results provide essential guidance for the predictions and emergency geological treatments of landslide dam disasters.","PeriodicalId":51283,"journal":{"name":"Geomatics Natural Hazards & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136382093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantitative analysis method for infrared characterization of coal damage under load based on image enhancement and pixel extraction","authors":"Tianxuan Hao, Meiqi Yuan, Fan Li, Guoqing Wang","doi":"10.1080/19475705.2023.2272574","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2023.2272574","url":null,"abstract":"To explore the quantification method of infrared thermal image characteristics in the coal loaded-damage process and better reflect the infrared precursor information and damage evolution of coal, in this paper, a new index based on the color extraction of thermal image pixel points, infrared high-temperature anomaly area ratio (IHAR), is proposed to quantitatively analyze the infrared thermal image characteristics in combination with image processing technology. The results show that: after the denoising and enhancement based on the double-domain decomposition and improved CLAHE algorithm, the infrared thermal image effect is improved; the change of IHAR index is controlled by stress, with significant characteristics of stages, which are synchronized and consistent with the infrared thermal image sequence; The precursors of IHAR show significant increase and fluctuation, and the time point is around 60% to 65% of the peak stress; compared with other infrared indicators, IHAR is better in terms of stage, easy identification of precursors, and validity of damage characterization, which can effectively reflect the evolution process of coal loaded damage, and provide early warning information for coal destabilization monitoring.","PeriodicalId":51283,"journal":{"name":"Geomatics Natural Hazards & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135166079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Gas drainage and optimal arrangement of boreholes based on permeability anisotropy","authors":"Minke Duan, Meijuan Lu, Ke Yang, Ruiqi Ban, Xuelong Hu, Changbao Jiang, Xin Lyu","doi":"10.1080/19475705.2023.2272573","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2023.2272573","url":null,"abstract":"Based on the true triaxial dynamic anisotropic permeability model of coal and rock, a multi field coupling mathematical model of structurally anisotropic coal seams under true triaxial stress was established, and a numerical simulation experiment of porous dry gas drainage in anisotropic coal seams was conducted using the COMSOL Multiphysics numerical simulation software. It was found that with an increase in the permeability anisotropy ratio, the greater the ratio of the long and short axes of the elliptical pressure isoline was, the denser was the gas streamline in the dominant seepage direction. As the permeability anisotropy ratio increased, the gas extraction volume and rate decreased. When the permeability was isotropic, the gas drainage volume of the uniformly arranged rectangular boreholes was the largest. However, when the permeability was anisotropic, the gas extraction volume and rate were the largest along the y-direction layout (perpendicular to the dominant seepage direction), followed by the rhombus layout, and the smallest along the x-direction layout. Based on the test results, an optimal arrangement principle of multi holes pumping boreholes along the vertical dominant seepage direction was proposed.","PeriodicalId":51283,"journal":{"name":"Geomatics Natural Hazards & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135267956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revisiting the seismic hazards of faults surrounding the 2022 Ms6.8 Luding earthquake, Sichuan, China","authors":"Yujiang Li, Haoqing Liu, Cheng Yang","doi":"10.1080/19475705.2023.2272569","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2023.2272569","url":null,"abstract":"The occurrence of the Ms6.8 Luding earthquake on 5 September 2022 filled the seismic gap in the southeastern segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone and transferred stress to the surrounding faults, which attracted much more attention to the seismic hazard. In this study, we calculate the coseismic Coulomb stress changes caused by the Ms6.8 Luding earthquake and analyze its relationship with the relocated aftershocks, and further explore the stress evolution before the Luding earthquake and seismic hazards on the surrounding faults after it. The results show significant coseismic Coulomb stress increases in the northern Anninghe fault zone and the coseismic unruptured section of the southeastern Xianshuihe fault zone. Aftershocks are highly correlated with the positive coseismic Coulomb stress change, wherein eight out of eleven aftershocks of M ≥ 3.0 occurred in areas with significant stress increases ranging from 0.03 MPa to 0.44 MPa, indicating the triggering effect. The Moxi fault experiences co- and post-seismic Coulomb stress changes due to historical M ≥ 7.0 strong earthquakes since 1515, which help understand the seismogenic mechanism of the Luding earthquake. Moreover, the Luding earthquake advanced the potential earthquakes in the northern section of the Anninghe fault zone by approximately 60 years, further highlighting the potential seismic hazards.","PeriodicalId":51283,"journal":{"name":"Geomatics Natural Hazards & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135366938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unlocking the hidden potential: groundwater zone mapping using AHP, remote sensing and GIS techniques","authors":"Rahul S. Shelar, Sachin B. Nandgude, Chaitanya B. Pande, Romulus Costache, Gamal A. El-Hiti, Abebe Debele Tolche, Cao Truong Son, Krishna Kumar Yadav","doi":"10.1080/19475705.2023.2264458","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2023.2264458","url":null,"abstract":"Groundwater resource problems are increasing development and planning challenges due to climate change and overexploitation, necessitating assessments of their potential and productivity. The study area has been facing a groundwater level decline problem for many years, and these results can help increase the groundwater level in the basaltic rock area. In this research, we have worked on the demarcation and suitability of groundwater potential zones using GIS and Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) methods for the Urmodi River Basin. This research prepared eight thematic maps, that is, geomorphology, geology, drainage density, land use/land cover, elevation, lineament density and slope from satellite data and GIS methods, which play a primary factor in determining the proper groundwater potential zones. In this study, every thematic map was allocated weights depending on its specific characteristics and contribution to the groundwater potential capacity. The weights were determined using the AHP method, which considers the comparative significance of every layer about others. This weighting procedure allowed for a comprehensive assessment of the factors influencing groundwater potential in the Urmodi River basin. The resulting groundwater potential map was divided into four classes, that is, good, excellent, moderate, and poor. The study revealed that approximately 22.69% of the basin had excellent groundwater potential, 28.96% had good potential, 25.32% had moderate potential, and 22.92% had poor potential. These study findings suggest that a significant portion of the Urmodi River Basin exhibits good to moderate groundwater potential, indicating promising opportunities for sustainable groundwater utilization in the region. The groundwater potential zone map accuracy is 84% based on the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) method. These results can have implications for sustainable groundwater resources and provide a framework for conducting similar assessments in other regions. The results can be more important for sustainable development goals and helpful in increasing groundwater levels in the area.","PeriodicalId":51283,"journal":{"name":"Geomatics Natural Hazards & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135778753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}