Theoretical EcologyPub Date : 2021-01-01Epub Date: 2021-05-27DOI: 10.1007/s12080-021-00514-w
Yun Tao, Jessica L Hite, Kevin D Lafferty, David J D Earn, Nita Bharti
{"title":"Transient disease dynamics across ecological scales.","authors":"Yun Tao, Jessica L Hite, Kevin D Lafferty, David J D Earn, Nita Bharti","doi":"10.1007/s12080-021-00514-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12080-021-00514-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Analyses of transient dynamics are critical to understanding infectious disease transmission and persistence. Identifying and predicting transients across scales, from within-host to community-level patterns, plays an important role in combating ongoing epidemics and mitigating the risk of future outbreaks. Moreover, greater emphases on non-asymptotic processes will enable timely evaluations of wildlife and human diseases and lead to improved surveillance efforts, preventive responses, and intervention strategies. Here, we explore the contributions of transient analyses in recent models spanning the fields of epidemiology, movement ecology, and parasitology. In addition to their roles in predicting epidemic patterns and endemic outbreaks, we explore transients in the contexts of pathogen transmission, resistance, and avoidance at various scales of the ecological hierarchy. Examples illustrate how (i) transient movement dynamics at the individual host level can modify opportunities for transmission events over time; (ii) within-host energetic processes often lead to transient dynamics in immunity, pathogen load, and transmission potential; (iii) transient connectivity between discrete populations in response to environmental factors and outbreak dynamics can affect disease spread across spatial networks; and (iv) increasing species richness in a community can provide transient protection to individuals against infection. Ultimately, we suggest that transient analyses offer deeper insights and raise new, interdisciplinary questions for disease research, consequently broadening the applications of dynamical models for outbreak preparedness and management.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12080-021-00514-w.</p>","PeriodicalId":51198,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Ecology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8156581/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39051509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Theoretical EcologyPub Date : 2021-01-01Epub Date: 2021-07-08DOI: 10.1007/s12080-021-00520-y
Peter C Jentsch, Chris T Bauch, Madhur Anand
{"title":"Fire mitigates bark beetle outbreaks in serotinous forests.","authors":"Peter C Jentsch, Chris T Bauch, Madhur Anand","doi":"10.1007/s12080-021-00520-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-021-00520-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Bark beetle outbreaks and forest fires have imposed severe ecological damage and caused billions of dollars in lost resources in recent decades. The impact of such combined disturbances is projected to become more severe, especially as climate change takes its toll on forest ecosystems in the coming years. Here, we investigate the impact of multiple disturbances in a demographically heterogeneous tree population, using an age-structured difference equation model of bark beetle outbreaks and forest fires. We identify two dynamical regimes for beetle and fire dynamics. The model predicts that fire helps dampen beetle outbreaks not only by removing host trees but also by altering the demographic structure of forest stands. We show that a stand thinning protocol, which reduces the population size of the largest few juvenile classes by a small percentage, is able to significantly reduce beetle-induced tree mortality. Our research demonstrates one approach to capturing compound disturbances in a mathematical model.</p>","PeriodicalId":51198,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Ecology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s12080-021-00520-y","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39791655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Correction to: Higher order interactions and species coexistence","authors":"Pragya Singh, Gaurav Baruah","doi":"10.1007/s12080-020-00492-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-020-00492-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51198,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Ecology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2020-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s12080-020-00492-5","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"53120171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Swarnendu Banerjee, Bapi Saha, M. Rietkerk, M. Baudena, J. Chattopadhyay
{"title":"Chemical contamination-mediated regime shifts in planktonic systems","authors":"Swarnendu Banerjee, Bapi Saha, M. Rietkerk, M. Baudena, J. Chattopadhyay","doi":"10.1007/s12080-021-00516-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-021-00516-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51198,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Ecology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2020-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s12080-021-00516-8","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43235735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Danet, Florian D. Schneider, F. Anthelme, S. Kéfi
{"title":"Indirect facilitation drives species composition and stability in drylands","authors":"A. Danet, Florian D. Schneider, F. Anthelme, S. Kéfi","doi":"10.1007/s12080-020-00489-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-020-00489-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51198,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Ecology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2020-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s12080-020-00489-0","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"53119947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Dorin, T. Taylor, M. Burd, Julián García, M. Shrestha, A. Dyer
{"title":"Competition and pollen wars: simulations reveal the dynamics of competition mediated through heterospecific pollen transfer by non-flower constant insects","authors":"A. Dorin, T. Taylor, M. Burd, Julián García, M. Shrestha, A. Dyer","doi":"10.1007/s12080-020-00490-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-020-00490-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51198,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Ecology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2020-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s12080-020-00490-7","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44819285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Inferring species interactions using Granger causality and convergent cross mapping","authors":"F. Barraquand, C. Picoche, M. Detto, F. Hartig","doi":"10.1007/s12080-020-00482-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-020-00482-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51198,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Ecology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2020-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s12080-020-00482-7","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"53119421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tatjana Thiel, Sarah Gaschler, K. Mody, N. Blüthgen, B. Drossel
{"title":"Impact of herbivore preference on the benefit of plant trait variability","authors":"Tatjana Thiel, Sarah Gaschler, K. Mody, N. Blüthgen, B. Drossel","doi":"10.1007/s12080-020-00487-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-020-00487-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51198,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Ecology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2020-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s12080-020-00487-2","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46576313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nathan G. Marculis, Jorge Arroyo-Esquivel, A. Hastings
{"title":"The role of between-patch dynamics in a metapopulation: a discrete-time modelling approach","authors":"Nathan G. Marculis, Jorge Arroyo-Esquivel, A. Hastings","doi":"10.1007/s12080-020-00486-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-020-00486-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51198,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Ecology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2020-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s12080-020-00486-3","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"53119678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}