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Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling最新文献

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The impact of natural disasters on the spread of COVID-19: a geospatial, agent-based epidemiology model 自然灾害对新冠肺炎传播的影响：地理空间、基于病原体的流行病学模型
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling Pub Date : 2020-09-14 DOI: 10.1101/2020.09.12.20193433
M. V. W. de Vries, L. Rambabu
{"title":"The impact of natural disasters on the spread of COVID-19: a geospatial, agent-based epidemiology model","authors":"M. V. W. de Vries, L. Rambabu","doi":"10.1101/2020.09.12.20193433","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.12.20193433","url":null,"abstract":"Natural disasters and infectious diseases result in widespread disruption to human health and livelihood. At the scale of a global pandemic, the co-occurrence of natural disasters is inevitable. However, the impact of natural disasters on the spread of COVID-19 has not been extensively evaluated through epidemiological modelling. We create an agent-based epidemiology model based on COVID-19 clinical, epidemiological, and geographic data. We first model 35 scenarios with varying natural disaster timing and duration for a COVID-19 outbreak in a theoretical region. We then evaluate the potential effect of an eruption of Vesuvius volcano on the spread of COVID-19 in Campania, Italy. In a majority of cases, the occurrence of a natural disaster increases the number of disease related fatalities. For a natural disaster fifty days after infection onset, the median increase in fatalities is 2, 59, and 180% for a 2, 14, and 31-day long natural disaster respectively, when compared to the no natural disaster scenario. For the Campania case, the median increase in fatalities is 1.1 and 2.4 additional fatalities per 100,000 for eruptions on day 1 and 100 respectively, and 60.0 additional fatalities per 100,000 for an eruption close to the peak in infections (day 50). Our results show that the occurrence of a natural disaster in most cases leads to an increase in infection related fatalities, with wide variance in possible outcomes depending on the timing of the natural disaster relative to the peak in infections and the duration of the natural disaster.","PeriodicalId":51195,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44225059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Correction to: Statistical field theory of the transmission of nerve impulses 更正：神经脉冲传输的统计场论
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling Pub Date : 2020-03-12 DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-16896/v1
Gianluigi Zangari del Balzo
{"title":"Correction to: Statistical field theory of the transmission of nerve impulses","authors":"Gianluigi Zangari del Balzo","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-16896/v1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-16896/v1","url":null,"abstract":"An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.","PeriodicalId":51195,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling","volume":"18 1","pages":"1"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43229491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Method for generating multiple risky barcodes of complex diseases using ant colony algorithm 基于蚁群算法的复杂疾病多重风险条形码生成方法
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling Pub Date : 2017-02-01 DOI: 10.1186/s12976-017-0050-0
Xiong Li, Wen Jiang
{"title":"Method for generating multiple risky barcodes of complex diseases using ant colony algorithm","authors":"Xiong Li, Wen Jiang","doi":"10.1186/s12976-017-0050-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12976-017-0050-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51195,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87589452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
The role of mobility and health disparities on the transmission dynamics of Tuberculosis 流动性和健康差异对结核病传播动态的作用
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling Pub Date : 2017-01-28 DOI: 10.1186/s12976-017-0049-6
Victor M. Moreno, B. Espinoza, K. Barley, Marlio Paredes, Derdei Bichara, A. Mubayi, C. Castillo-Chavez
{"title":"The role of mobility and health disparities on the transmission dynamics of Tuberculosis","authors":"Victor M. Moreno, B. Espinoza, K. Barley, Marlio Paredes, Derdei Bichara, A. Mubayi, C. Castillo-Chavez","doi":"10.1186/s12976-017-0049-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12976-017-0049-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51195,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s12976-017-0049-6","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65719652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Estimating the subcritical transmissibility of the Zika outbreak in the State of Florida, USA, 2016 估计2016年美国佛罗里达州寨卡疫情的亚临界传播力
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling Pub Date : 2016-11-09 DOI: 10.1186/s12976-016-0046-1
Linh Dinh, G. Chowell, K. Mizumoto, H. Nishiura
{"title":"Estimating the subcritical transmissibility of the Zika outbreak in the State of Florida, USA, 2016","authors":"Linh Dinh, G. Chowell, K. Mizumoto, H. Nishiura","doi":"10.1186/s12976-016-0046-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12976-016-0046-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51195,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s12976-016-0046-1","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65719600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 35
A physiologically-based flow network model for hepatic drug elimination III: 2D/3D DLA lobule models 基于生理的肝脏药物消除血流网络模型III: 2D/3D DLA小叶模型
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling Pub Date : 2016-03-03 DOI: 10.1186/s12976-016-0034-5
V. Rezania, D. Coombe, J. Tuszynski
{"title":"A physiologically-based flow network model for hepatic drug elimination III: 2D/3D DLA lobule models","authors":"V. Rezania, D. Coombe, J. Tuszynski","doi":"10.1186/s12976-016-0034-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12976-016-0034-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51195,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling","volume":"72 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s12976-016-0034-5","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65719342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 16
Modeling glucose and free fatty acid kinetics in glucose and meal tolerance test 葡萄糖和膳食耐量试验中葡萄糖和游离脂肪酸动力学建模
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling Pub Date : 2016-03-02 DOI: 10.1186/s12976-016-0036-3
Yanjun Li, C. Chow, A. Courville, A. Sumner, V. Periwal
{"title":"Modeling glucose and free fatty acid kinetics in glucose and meal tolerance test","authors":"Yanjun Li, C. Chow, A. Courville, A. Sumner, V. Periwal","doi":"10.1186/s12976-016-0036-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12976-016-0036-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51195,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s12976-016-0036-3","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65719581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Toward precision medicine of breast cancer 向乳腺癌精准医学迈进
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling Pub Date : 2016-02-29 DOI: 10.1186/s12976-016-0035-4
N. Carels, Lizania Spinasse, T. Tilli, J. Tuszynski
{"title":"Toward precision medicine of breast cancer","authors":"N. Carels, Lizania Spinasse, T. Tilli, J. Tuszynski","doi":"10.1186/s12976-016-0035-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12976-016-0035-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51195,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s12976-016-0035-4","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65719571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 51
A group matrix representation relevant to scales of measurement of clinical disease states via stratified vectors 通过分层载体与临床疾病状态测量尺度相关的组矩阵表示
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling Pub Date : 2016-02-09 DOI: 10.1186/s12976-016-0031-8
J. Sawamura, Shigeru Morishita, J. Ishigooka
{"title":"A group matrix representation relevant to scales of measurement of clinical disease states via stratified vectors","authors":"J. Sawamura, Shigeru Morishita, J. Ishigooka","doi":"10.1186/s12976-016-0031-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12976-016-0031-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51195,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s12976-016-0031-8","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65719332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Simulation and qualitative analysis of glucose variability, mean glucose, and hypoglycemia after subcutaneous insulin therapy for stress hyperglycemia 模拟和定性分析葡萄糖变异性、平均葡萄糖和低血糖后皮下胰岛素治疗应激性高血糖
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling Pub Date : 2016-01-27 DOI: 10.1186/s12976-016-0029-2
R. Strilka, M. Stull, Michael S. Clemens, Stewart C. McCaver, S. Armen
{"title":"Simulation and qualitative analysis of glucose variability, mean glucose, and hypoglycemia after subcutaneous insulin therapy for stress hyperglycemia","authors":"R. Strilka, M. Stull, Michael S. Clemens, Stewart C. McCaver, S. Armen","doi":"10.1186/s12976-016-0029-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12976-016-0029-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51195,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s12976-016-0029-2","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65719315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
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