The impact of natural disasters on the spread of COVID-19: a geospatial, agent-based epidemiology model

Q1 Mathematics
M. V. W. de Vries, L. Rambabu
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Natural disasters and infectious diseases result in widespread disruption to human health and livelihood. At the scale of a global pandemic, the co-occurrence of natural disasters is inevitable. However, the impact of natural disasters on the spread of COVID-19 has not been extensively evaluated through epidemiological modelling. We create an agent-based epidemiology model based on COVID-19 clinical, epidemiological, and geographic data. We first model 35 scenarios with varying natural disaster timing and duration for a COVID-19 outbreak in a theoretical region. We then evaluate the potential effect of an eruption of Vesuvius volcano on the spread of COVID-19 in Campania, Italy. In a majority of cases, the occurrence of a natural disaster increases the number of disease related fatalities. For a natural disaster fifty days after infection onset, the median increase in fatalities is 2, 59, and 180% for a 2, 14, and 31-day long natural disaster respectively, when compared to the no natural disaster scenario. For the Campania case, the median increase in fatalities is 1.1 and 2.4 additional fatalities per 100,000 for eruptions on day 1 and 100 respectively, and 60.0 additional fatalities per 100,000 for an eruption close to the peak in infections (day 50). Our results show that the occurrence of a natural disaster in most cases leads to an increase in infection related fatalities, with wide variance in possible outcomes depending on the timing of the natural disaster relative to the peak in infections and the duration of the natural disaster.
自然灾害对新冠肺炎传播的影响:地理空间、基于病原体的流行病学模型
自然灾害和传染病对人类健康和生计造成广泛破坏。在全球大流行病的规模下,自然灾害的同时发生是不可避免的。然而,自然灾害对新冠肺炎传播的影响尚未通过流行病学模型进行广泛评估。我们基于新冠肺炎临床、流行病学和地理数据创建了一个基于代理的流行病学模型。我们首先对新冠肺炎在理论区域爆发的35种不同自然灾害时间和持续时间的情景进行建模。然后,我们评估了维苏威火山爆发对新冠肺炎在意大利坎帕尼亚传播的潜在影响。在大多数情况下,自然灾害的发生会增加与疾病相关的死亡人数。对于感染发生50天后的自然灾害,与无自然灾害的情况相比,持续2天、14天和31天的自然灾害死亡人数的中位数分别增加了2%、59%和180%。对于坎帕尼亚病例,第1天和第100天爆发的死亡人数增加中位数分别为每100000人增加1.1人和2.4人,接近感染高峰的爆发(第50天)每100000人额外增加60.0人。我们的研究结果表明,在大多数情况下,自然灾害的发生会导致与感染相关的死亡人数增加,可能的结果差异很大,这取决于自然灾害发生的时间相对于感染高峰和自然灾害的持续时间。
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来源期刊
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY-
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling is an open access peer-reviewed journal adopting a broad definition of "biology" and focusing on theoretical ideas and models associated with developments in biology and medicine. Mathematicians, biologists and clinicians of various specialisms, philosophers and historians of science are all contributing to the emergence of novel concepts in an age of systems biology, bioinformatics and computer modelling. This is the field in which Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling operates. We welcome submissions that are technically sound and offering either improved understanding in biology and medicine or progress in theory or method.
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