European Journal of Agronomy最新文献

{"title":"Zinc fertilization and bud chip transplanting: Effects on zinc fractions, uptake and sugarcane productivity in calcareous soils","authors":"Navnit Kumar ,&nbsp;Lalita Rana ,&nbsp;Vipin Kumar ,&nbsp;Sumit Sow ,&nbsp;Gangadhar Nanda","doi":"10.1016/j.eja.2025.127801","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eja.2025.127801","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sugarcane has tremendous potential to enhance farmers' income; however, micronutrient deficiencies particularly zinc deficiency remain a major constraint in the calcareous soils, which limits sugarcane productivity and nutrient content due to less availability of zinc. A study conducted in Bihar, India over three consecutive years (2019–2022) at the Kalyanpur Farm, RPCAU, Pusa, Samastipur India to evaluate the effects of bud chip transplanting methods and different levels of zinc (Control, 5, 7.5, 10.0 and 12.5 kg ha⁻¹) on the concentration and availability of various zinc fractions in calcareous soil and to assess their contribution to zinc uptake by sugarcane. The conventional planting method significantly improved plant population (160100 ha⁻¹), plant height (302.5 cm), millable canes (115800 ha⁻¹), and cane yield (914 q ha⁻¹) compared to the furrow irrigated raised bed method. Although this method marginally enhanced soil zinc fractions, it did not improve yield. Zinc application had a notable effect on crop performance. The highest zinc dose (12.5 kg ha⁻¹) produced the tallest plants (318.3 cm), highest number of millable canes (123200 ha⁻¹) and maximum cane yield (988 q ha⁻¹). It also increased net assimilation rate, plant zinc concentration (28.82 mg kg⁻¹), zinc uptake (1058 g ha⁻¹) and post-harvest soil zinc availability (0.83 mg kg⁻¹). Economically, application of 12.5 kg zinc ha⁻¹ gave the highest gross return ($ 4103 U.S ha⁻¹), net return ($ 2104 U.S ha⁻¹), and benefit-cost ratio (2.06). Zinc application significantly increased the WSEZn, CAZn, OBZn and RZn in calcareous soil to soil total zinc. However, zinc-use efficiency peaked at 7.5 kg zinc ha⁻¹ (3.15 t cane kg⁻¹ zinc), suggesting diminishing returns at higher doses. The study concludes that conventional planting combined with optimal zinc fertilization in budchip settlings significantly enhances sugarcane productivity and zinc fractions, offering a sustainable strategy for micronutrient management in calcareous soils.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51045,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Agronomy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 127801"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144772153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Real-time risk assessment of rice chilling injury based on disaster processes in Northeast China","authors":"Bilige Sudu ,&nbsp;Sicheng Wei ,&nbsp;Suri Guga ,&nbsp;Cha Ersi ,&nbsp;Ying Guo ,&nbsp;Feng Zhi ,&nbsp;Teri Gele ,&nbsp;Zhenhua Dong ,&nbsp;Mula Na ,&nbsp;Zhijun Tong ,&nbsp;Xingpeng Liu ,&nbsp;Jiquan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.eja.2025.127802","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eja.2025.127802","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although global warming has reduced the frequency of large-scale severe chilling injury in Northeast China, such risks have not been eliminated. Regional and periodic chilling injury events still occur frequently and are even showing signs of increasing intensity. To enhance the capability of chilling injury identification and early warning, this study constructed a cumulative intensity index based on the daily accumulation process. Meteorological data from Northeast China (1991–2020) were used to analyze the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of rice chilling injuries. It also integrates sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) to assess crop adaptability. Furthermore, random forest (RF), the DSSAT crop model, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) were employed to incorporate a natural disaster risk index and develop a real-time risk assessment model for the rice chilling injury. The model was validated using three chilling events from 2002, 2017, and 2020. Results showed that during the tillering and booting stages, SIF is significantly negatively correlated with the cumulative intensity index, indicating that SIF had strong potential as an early remote sensing indicator for chilling injury. Through retrospective real-time risk assessments of three representative historical chilling injury events, we found that high-latitude rice growing areas are more vulnerable to chilling stress. For instance, during the 2002 chilling event, the proportion of moderate-risk areas rose to 49 %, while high-risk areas reached 17 %. This spatial distribution pattern reflects historical disaster trends and supports farmers and agricultural agencies in assessing chilling injury risk, enabling timely preventive measures and contributing to national food security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51045,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Agronomy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 127802"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144772155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analyses of agronomic and system productivity of maize (Zea mays L.) - common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) Intercropping under organic and inorganic fertilization in southwestern Ethiopia","authors":"Hawi Mohammed Yasin ,&nbsp;Amsalu Nabiyu ,&nbsp;Tewdros Abebe","doi":"10.1016/j.eja.2025.127791","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eja.2025.127791","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The studies were carried out during the 2022 and 2023 cropping season at Jimma zone in Mana districts with the experiment laid out in randomized complete block design factorial with three replications to determine the appropriate Maize and common planting arrangement and better combination pattern. Among cropping system, farmyard manure and nitrogen rate application on plant height, Leaf number and leaf area by using single row of common bean with application of farmyard manure and 138kgN/ha provided 247.633 cm plant height, 14.80 leaf per plant and 850.84acm^{<strong>2</strong>} leaf area respectively. double row of common bean with farmyard manure and 92kgN/ha as well as without farmyard manure and 138kgN/ha provided statistically similar ear length, single and double row of common bean with application of farmyard manure and 138kgNha⁻¹ provided 14.69 and 14.80 tha^{<strong>−1</strong>} and 53.39 and 54.43 tha⁻¹ provided biomass and grain yield per hectare respectively. 1000-grain weight of maize for both Single and double row of bean with farmyard manure and application of 92kgNha⁻¹ and 138kgNha^-1 was significantly differ from other treatments by weighing 344.17 kg, 354.17 kg and 345.00 kg, 380.50 kg respectively for maize. In case of common bean, the Farmyard manure applied plots produced significantly a greater number of pods per plant and grain yield than the plots without Farmyard manure application. Depending on the above result it is advisable to use farmyard manure with double row of common bean by applying 138kgNha⁻¹ for the study area.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51045,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Agronomy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 127791"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144772154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Coupling phosphorus rate and type enhances maize yield by regulating salt ion homeostasis in coastal saline soil-crop systems","authors":"Shuaibing Wu ,&nbsp;Xingshuai Tian ,&nbsp;Botao Yu ,&nbsp;Jishi Zhang ,&nbsp;Huifang Zheng ,&nbsp;Qi Miao ,&nbsp;Hao Ying ,&nbsp;Zhenling Cui","doi":"10.1016/j.eja.2025.127789","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eja.2025.127789","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Phosphorus (P) management influences maize growth and mitigates salt stress in coastal saline soils, but how to match P rate and type to regulate soil–crop system ion equilibrium for higher yield and its driving mechanism remains unclear. We conducted a six-year field trial (2017–2022) to assess the effects of coupling P rates and types, including single superphosphate (SSP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and ammonium polyphosphate (APP), on maize yield, P uptake and P agronomic efficiency (PAE), soil–crop system cation homeostasis, and economic benefits in coastal saline soils. Pooling data from the six-year field trial, grain yield had a linear–plateau relationship with increasing P application rates under the three P types, showing an overall plateau yield of 8.51–9.21 Mg ha⁻¹ at 18.88–22.32 kg P ha⁻¹. At the inflection points level, the water-soluble sodium percentage (WSSP) was 59.9, the sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) was 2.2, and the cation ratio of soil structural stability (CROSS) was 2.5, all significantly lower than those under no P treatments. The corresponding inflection points for maize shoot ion ratios were 24.8 for Ca:Na, 172.4 for K:Na, and 18.2 for Mg:Na. The SSP under optimized P rate reduced WSSP by 12.1–12.9 %, SAR by 19.2–23.3 %, and CROSS by18.3–22.0 % more than the reduction observed for APP and MAP. Also, the SSP under optimized P rate resulted in higher maize shoot Ca:Na ratio (8.6–15.3 %), K:Na ratio (8.1–19.9 %) and Mg:Na ratio (11.1–25.3 %) than the ratios observed for APP and MAP. As a result, the SSP under optimized P rate resulted in higher maize yield (+8.06 %), PAE (+32.4 %), and net income (+18.2 %). This study provides insights into soil–crop system ionic homeostasis considering P rate and type, enhancing our understanding of the mechanisms by which salt ion balance affects crop yield and highlighting the critical role of P management in achieving sustainable agriculture in coastal saline soils.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51045,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Agronomy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 127789"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144763955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Grazing modified the effects of insects on plants in grasslands: A meta-analysis","authors":"Wenjun Wang ,&nbsp;Fujiang Hou","doi":"10.1016/j.eja.2025.127787","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eja.2025.127787","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extensive research on worldwide grassland ecosystems indicates that grazing substantially influences grass-livestock interactions and the analysis of chemical elements. The impact of grazing, especially its intensity, on the interaction between insects and plants remains ambiguous. A synthesis of 56 field research was performed to examine the effects and severity of grazing on insects and plants. The study aimed to determine if experimental and environmental factors influence the effect of grazing on insect diversity. The principal findings demonstrate that grazing intensity significantly detrimentally affects insect species richness and diversity. This pattern may be ascribed to grazing-induced changes in plant community heterogeneity, which subsequently influences insect populations. Higher stocking rates resulted with substantial decreases in insect species richness, but moderate grazing intensities had no noticeable impact. Notably, differences in insect richness and variety in response to grazing were strongly correlated with meteorological and topographic parameters such as mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and elevation. While this analysis focuses on the complex effects of grazing on insect biodiversity, its impact on species richness and diversity appears to be less pronounced than its significant impact on insect community composition, which is consistent with previous research findings. These results underscore the complex interplay between grazing regimes, environmental variables, and trophic interactions in grassland ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51045,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Agronomy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 127787"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144763957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What agronomic and environmental factors drive coffee yield in Burundi? A country-wide study.","authors":"Alain Kagisye ,&nbsp;Anaclet Nibasumba ,&nbsp;Gilbert Nduwayo ,&nbsp;Charles L. Bielders","doi":"10.1016/j.eja.2025.127788","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eja.2025.127788","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Arabica coffee accounts for 70 % of Burundi's trade income. However, production has been steadily declining. The objective of this study was therefore to identify the agronomic and environmental factors driving coffee yield on smallholder farms across Burundi. For this purpose, a diagnostic survey was conducted on 155 coffee plantations across three key agroecological zones: Mumirwa, the Humid Central Plateau, and the Dry Central Plateau. Data collection included plot and management characteristics, soil fertility variables, and yield. Yield surveys were conducted over two successive years to account for production cyclicity. Principal component analysis, random forest and boundary line analysis were used for data analysis. Average yields of washed merchant coffee were 887 kg ha⁻¹ for Mumirwa, 1115 kg ha⁻¹ for the Humid Central Plateau, and 1268 kg ha⁻¹ for the Dry Central Plateau, with maximum yields reaching 1891, 2533, and 2262 kg ha⁻¹, respectively. Based on the random forest analysis, soil organic carbon, mulch thickness and soil magnesium content were the most important variables for explaining yield. On average, Burundi’s coffee plantations experience a 59 % yield deficit. The most yield-limiting factors included inadequate weeding and mulching, aging plantations, soil acidity, as well as phosphorus, exchangeable bases and soil organic carbon content. These factors varied across regions. Renewal of plantations, better management practices, and addressing specific soil fertility issues are key to improve yields, for which the study proposes revised norms. The study also highlighted the importance of considering coffee yield cyclicity to avoid misidentifying yield-limiting factors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51045,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Agronomy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 127788"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144763956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimization of nitrogen allocation and remobilization improves nitrogen use efficiency of winter wheat in the North China Plain","authors":"Jingli Ma ,&nbsp;Kai Zhang ,&nbsp;Baoting Fang ,&nbsp;Xiaojie Wang ,&nbsp;Shuli Wang ,&nbsp;Lina Jiang ,&nbsp;Zhimin Wang ,&nbsp;Baozhen Hao","doi":"10.1016/j.eja.2025.127782","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eja.2025.127782","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the allocation and remobilization of nitrogen within canopy during grain filling is crucial for improving nitrogen use efficiency in wheat. How nitrogen fertilizer management in the North China Plain (NCP) determines nitrogen use efficiency by impacting the allocation and remobilization of nitrogen at the individual organs scales remains unclear. To address this, a two-year field study quantified organ-specific nitrogen allocation and remobilization dynamics across canopy hierarchies under varying nitrogen doses (0–330 kg ha⁻¹). Results demonstrated a quadratic response of grain yield to nitrogen doses, peaking at 241 kg N ha⁻¹ (8.23 Mg ha⁻¹), and nitrogen doses of 180–220 kg ha⁻¹ synchronized nitrogen supply with grain nitrogen-sink development, maximizing remobilization. Nitrogen remobilization efficiency (NRE) was positively associated with nitrogen efficiency parameters and grains spike⁻¹. Organ-level analysis revealed that upper-canopy organs (flag leaf, first internode) maintained stable NRE (75–85 %) across nitrogen regimes, while lower-canopy organs (3rd/4th leaves/internodes) exhibited significant plasticity (NRE: 57–79 %), with reduced nitrogen supply increasing NRE of lower-canopy organs. Reduced nitrogen supply elevated nitrogen allocation to spikes at anthesis by 20.0 %, concurrently enhancing spike NRE by 9.7 %. These dynamics demonstrate that strategic nitrogen reduction simultaneously preserves photosynthetic capacity in the upper canopy, exploits lower-canopy plasticity for efficient remobilization, and prioritizes spike development as a high-efficiency nitrogen sink. To reconcile productivity and sustainability, we propose to exploit NRE plasticity in lower canopy organs through precision nitrogen placement, combined with nitrogen-sink enhancement via either breeding or growth regulators to increase grains per spike.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51045,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Agronomy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 127782"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144723442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A multidimensional analytical framework for the selection of soft wheat varieties for dryland environments based on agronomic productivity, stability, nitrogen use efficiency and economic parameters","authors":"Qudratullah Soofizada,&nbsp;Antonio Pescatore,&nbsp;Simone Orlandini,&nbsp;Marco Napoli","doi":"10.1016/j.eja.2025.127786","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eja.2025.127786","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Wheat production in arid and semi-arid regions is constrained by environmental variability and limited input availability, especially nitrogen. The use of a novel multidimensional analytical framework is proposed to permit the selection of the most suitable bread wheat varieties for Afghanistan, optimizing the aforementioned constraints. The objective was to (i) evaluate 33 varieties across 6 environments, and (ii) to develop a novel robust analytical framework integrating agronomic performance, nitrogen use efficiency (NUE), stability metrics, and economic return for the identification of the most stable, high-performing varieties. Environmental factors explained over 80 % of the variance in grain yield (GY) and straw yield (SY). Significant genotype × environment interactions enabled the identification of broadly adapted genotypes. Varieties 28 and 32 exceeded 4.0 t ha⁻¹ GY with high stability across environments. Nitrogen uptake efficiency (Nt/Ns) ranged from 0.41 to 0.72, with varieties 11, 19 and 20 combining high NUE traits with consistent performance. Protein content was mostly environment-driven, with variety 15 showing exceptional stability and quality. The Net Nitrogen-adjusted Margin (NNaM), an economic index combining yield, NUE, and grain protein, was significantly associated with Nt/Ns and SY. A linear regression model explained 96.5 % of NNaM variability, highlighting the value of integrating physiological and economic traits. The derived composite index allowed for multi-trait ranking. From this, only varieties 28, 32 and 15 emerged as optimal candidates. This integrative framework facilitates the selection of productive, resource-efficient wheat varieties for Afghanistan farming and offers a scalable approach for breeding programs in arid and semi-arid agro-ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51045,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Agronomy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 127786"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144723441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The use of ecoclimatic indices to investigate climate impact on wine grape yield at local scale","authors":"Laura T. Massano ,&nbsp;Benjamin Bois ,&nbsp;Marielle Adrian ,&nbsp;Giorgia Fosser ,&nbsp;Marco Gaetani","doi":"10.1016/j.eja.2025.127790","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eja.2025.127790","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The impact of climate variability on wine grape yield is assessed using ecoclimatic indices tailored to the crop's specific life cycle stages during the whole growing season and specific key phenological periods. These periods are selected through a validated phenological development model that accounts for various grape varieties. The risk of crop losses due to the main cryptogamic vine diseases is also considered. This study actively involves winegrowers as yield data are provided by two Italian wine consortia, situated in Lombardia and Toscana (Italy), respectively. It considers the unique characteristics of each study region, operating at a local scale with a focus on specific grape varieties. The ecoclimatic indices are correlated with grape yield data using single and multiple regression analyses. The contribution of each ecoclimatic index to the yield formation process is evaluated and the portion of total yield variability explained by these predictors, both individually and in linear combination, is quantified. The results obtained explained 25–50 % of yield variance and identified key ecoclimatic indices based on the region and the case considered. Recognizing the scarcity of existing literature on grapevine yield modelling, this paper presents a novel set of ecoclimatic indices, meticulously derived from the latest insights into climate's impact on grapevine development. Furthermore, the innovative methodology outlined here is designed also for application in future climate projections, enabling a comprehensive investigation of climate change and its potential ramifications on grape yield.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51045,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Agronomy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 127790"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144739161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Contrasting trends in wheat production exist across Australia in response to climate","authors":"Roger A. Lawes ,&nbsp;Rose Roche ,&nbsp;Rebecca O. Darbyshire ,&nbsp;Aswin Singaram Natarajan ,&nbsp;Chris M. Herrmann","doi":"10.1016/j.eja.2025.127785","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eja.2025.127785","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Context</h3><div>The wheat dominated dryland cropping zone in Australia occupies over 50 million hectares. Climate change has impacted production but reports on the scale and magnitude vary.</div></div><div><h3>Objective</h3><div>This study defines the spatial extent of production trends in potential wheat yield from 1990 to 2023 across Australia and discuss the innovations required to adapt to a changing climate.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Here, we simulate wheat production. 30,482 simulations of potential wheat yield were run using climate grids, crop simulation models and national soils grids to evaluate the production trends across Australia from 1990 to 2023. Simulation output is summarised, and features related to production trends in wheat potential yield, and mean levels of production, incrop rainfall, fallow rainfall, soil water at sowing, frost and heat damage and season length were created from the simulation output. Cluster analysis of these features generated 6 distinct agro-ecological zones (AEZ) of production across Australia.</div></div><div><h3>Results and conclusions</h3><div>On average, potential yield declined at a rate of 12.5 kg/ha/yr or by 12 % over 33 years. The trends varied from a 40 % increase for 1.7 million hectares in the North zone, to a 33 % decline across 4.7 million hectares in the Far East zone of Central and Eastern NSW. The frequency of drought cycles also ranged from 6.8 years for the Interior Edge and South-Central zones to 11.3 years for the Southern zone. Notably, every AEZ experienced an increase in fallow rainfall, and a moderate decline of incrop rainfall. The magnitude of these increases and decreases, combined with changes in frost and heat stress, influenced the scale of the change in potential yield over time.</div></div><div><h3>Significance</h3><div>Innovations must concentrate on effectively utilising fallow rainfall to enhance water and nutrient use efficiency and seek to mitigate the effects of frost and heat stress at the end of the growing season. The type and magnitude of the intervention required to address climate change impacts on wheat yield vary markedly between the 6 zones.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51045,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Agronomy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 127785"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144739163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}