{"title":"A Proposed Probabilistic Extension of the Halpern and Pearl Definition of 'Actual Cause'.","authors":"Luke Fenton-Glynn","doi":"10.1093/bjps/axv056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/bjps/axv056","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Joseph Halpern and Judea Pearl ([2005]) draw upon structural equation models to develop an attractive analysis of 'actual cause'. Their analysis is designed for the case of deterministic causation. I show that their account can be naturally extended to provide an elegant treatment of probabilistic causation. 1Introduction2Preemption3Structural Equation Models4The Halpern and Pearl Definition of 'Actual Cause'5Preemption Again6The Probabilistic Case7Probabilistic Causal Models8A Proposed Probabilistic Extension of Halpern and Pearl's Definition9Twardy and Korb's Account10Probabilistic Fizzling11Conclusion.</p>","PeriodicalId":509962,"journal":{"name":"The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science","volume":"68 4","pages":"1061-1124"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/bjps/axv056","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"35957375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Counterfactual Desirability.","authors":"Richard Bradley, H Orri Stefánsson","doi":"10.1093/bjps/axv023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/bjps/axv023","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The desirability of what actually occurs is often influenced by what could have been. Preferences based on such value dependencies between actual and counterfactual outcomes generate a class of problems for orthodox decision theory, the best-known perhaps being the so-called Allais paradox. In this article we solve these problems by extending Richard Jeffrey's decision theory to counterfactual prospects, using a multidimensional possible-world semantics for conditionals, and showing that preferences that are sensitive to counterfactual considerations can still be desirability-maximizing. We end the article by investigating the conditions necessary and sufficient for a desirability function to be a standard expected-utility function. It turns out that the additional conditions imply highly implausible epistemic principles. 1Two Paradoxes of Rational Choice2Jeffrey Desirability3Counterfactuals 3.1Probability and desirability of counterfactuals3.2Representations4Counterfactual-Dependent Preferences 4.1Preference actualism and desirability maximization4.2Modelling Allais's and Diamond's preferences5Ethical Actualism and Separability 5.1Independence and additive separability5.2 Ethical actualism5.3Expected utility, separability, and ethical actualism6Concluding Remarks7Appendix.</p>","PeriodicalId":509962,"journal":{"name":"The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science","volume":"68 2","pages":"485-533"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/bjps/axv023","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"36659262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Sameness of age cohorts in the mathematics of population growth.","authors":"A Akkerman","doi":"10.1093/bjps/45.2.679","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/bjps/45.2.679","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>\"Considering age groups as part of cohorts, implicit in LLM [a Leslie-Lotka finitist model], causes difficulty, manifested by the extensionality paradox. The proposition made here was that cohorts are empirical temporal entities, while age groups are theoretical entities, references only. Cohort is a multitude of persons born at the same time interval, throughout the totality of their lives. Age group, on the other hand, is a concept only, constituted by the notion of the age interval....A model of household and population growth based on the household composition matrix yields results that are inherently different from these of LLM.\"</p>","PeriodicalId":509962,"journal":{"name":"The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science","volume":"45 ","pages":"679-91"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"1994-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/bjps/45.2.679","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"22015597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}