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Unsteady aerothermal asymmetry and control in rotor-stator cavities: A synergistic LES and CNN-LSTM framework 动静腔内非定常气动热不对称及其控制:一个协同LES和CNN-LSTM框架
IF 5.8 1区 工程技术
Aerospace Science and Technology Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ast.2025.110952
Yulong Yao , Bo Hu , Chuan Wang
{"title":"Unsteady aerothermal asymmetry and control in rotor-stator cavities: A synergistic LES and CNN-LSTM framework","authors":"Yulong Yao ,&nbsp;Bo Hu ,&nbsp;Chuan Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ast.2025.110952","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ast.2025.110952","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amidst global energy shortages and the pursuit of carbon neutrality, high-temperature rotating equipment such as gas turbines and aero-engines requires advanced thermal management technologies. This study focuses on the rotor–stator cavity (RSC) and employs large eddy simulation (LES) to systematically investigate the asymmetry and spatiotemporal evolution of heat flux under high-Reynolds-number conditions. The results reveal that the combined effects of centrifugal force, Coriolis force, and local vortical structures lead to pronounced non-uniformity in the thermal boundary layer along both the axial and circumferential directions, thereby inducing strong local temperature gradients and fluctuations in heat transfer coefficients. To overcome the limitations of conventional models in predicting complex turbulent heat transfer, a hybrid data-driven framework based on CNN-LSTM is developed. The model leverages convolutional neural networks to extract local spatial features and long short-term memory networks to capture temporal dependencies, achieving high-accuracy fitting of the time-series distribution of heat transfer coefficients on the rotor surface, with coefficients of determination exceeding 0.96. Its robust performance and adaptability under diverse turbulent conditions are thereby demonstrated. Furthermore, comparisons with experimental data confirm that LES can effectively reproduce the intricate heat flux structures within the RSC, while the CNN-LSTM model provides reliable support for rapid prediction and engineering optimization. Overall, this research deepens the understanding of heat transfer mechanisms in rotating flow fields and establishes a theoretical and technical foundation for intelligent cooling control and high efficiency thermal management, with promising potential for aerospace engineering applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50955,"journal":{"name":"Aerospace Science and Technology","volume":"168 ","pages":"Article 110952"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145093941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Experimental study of ignition and combustion of polyethylene-based hypergolic solid fuels in a lab-scale hybrid rocket motor 聚乙烯基自燃固体燃料在实验室规模混合火箭发动机中的点火与燃烧实验研究
IF 5.8 1区 工程技术
Aerospace Science and Technology Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ast.2025.110946
Wei-Che Lin, Gregory Young
{"title":"Experimental study of ignition and combustion of polyethylene-based hypergolic solid fuels in a lab-scale hybrid rocket motor","authors":"Wei-Che Lin,&nbsp;Gregory Young","doi":"10.1016/j.ast.2025.110946","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ast.2025.110946","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>One of the primary challenges for hybrid rockets is achieving fast, simple, and reliable ignition. The current study investigates the use of hypergolic solid fuels (HSFs) as a practical solution to meet this goal. A polyethylene-based HSF embedded with sodium borohydride (NaBH<sub>4</sub>) and manganese acetate tetrahydrate (Mn acetate) was tested in a lab-scale hypergolic hybrid rocket motor (HRM) using 90wt% rocket-grade hydrogen peroxide (RGHP). The heterogeneous reactions between RGHP and the embedded additives generated sufficient thermal energy and sparks for ignition. Experimental results showed that rapid ignition was achieved only in HSF grains with cut surfaces resulting in freshly exposed surfaces. At high oxidizer flow rates, unstable combustion behavior was observed, characterized by intermittent gas release and erratic motor vibrations. This behavior is hypothesized to result from oxidizer flooding and the explosion of hydrogen peroxide vapor near the fuel surface. Increasing the fuel port diameter and incorporating Mn acetate effectively mitigated this issue. Ignition delay times and fuel regression rates were measured and compared with existing literature. While ignition delay times showed no clear dependence on additive concentration or oxidizer mass flow rate, fuel regression rates increased with both. Using the empirical regression rate expression <span><math><mrow><mover><mi>r</mi><mi>˙</mi></mover><mo>=</mo><mi>a</mi><msubsup><mi>G</mi><mi>o</mi><mi>n</mi></msubsup></mrow></math></span>, an exponential factor of <span><math><mrow><mi>n</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>0.9</mn></mrow></math></span> was obtained, indicating that the fuel regression rate is highly dependent on mass flux, potentially driven by heterogeneous surface reactions and hydrogen generation. Surface profilometry further revealed spatial variations in fuel regression and highlighted the significant impact of liquid spray impingement. The experimental findings in this study demonstrate the potential of employing HSFs to achieve a simple, reliable ignition and enhanced fuel regression in HRMs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50955,"journal":{"name":"Aerospace Science and Technology","volume":"168 ","pages":"Article 110946"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145093736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dynamic UAV path planning in mountainous terrain utilizing an arithmetic optimization algorithm incorporating adaptive thermal conduction search and elite population genetic strategies 基于自适应热传导搜索和精英群体遗传策略的山地无人机动态路径规划算法
IF 5.8 1区 工程技术
Aerospace Science and Technology Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ast.2025.110950
Wentao Wang, Jun Tian
{"title":"Dynamic UAV path planning in mountainous terrain utilizing an arithmetic optimization algorithm incorporating adaptive thermal conduction search and elite population genetic strategies","authors":"Wentao Wang,&nbsp;Jun Tian","doi":"10.1016/j.ast.2025.110950","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ast.2025.110950","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) is playing an increasingly vital role in application missions for mountainous terrain. The ruggedness of mountainous terrain and the presence of dynamic obstacles make UAV path planning highly challenging. The goal of dynamic UAV path planning in mountainous terrain is to design a safe, energy-efficient, and smooth path to help the UAV navigate through obstacle-laden areas, thereby ensuring the efficiency of task completion. This paper establishes a path planning model that includes multiple constraints such as energy consumption and security threats to transform the dynamic UAV path planning problem into an optimization problem that minimizes the path cost. Aiming at this optimization problem, an Arithmetic Optimization Algorithm incorporating adaptive Thermal conduction search, Quadratic interpolation and elite population Genetic strategies (TQGAOA) is proposed. The introduction of these strategies aims to enhance the exploration and exploitation performance of the algorithm in dynamic UAV path planning problem. The performance of TQGAOA is validated using the CEC2017 suite and compared with eight advanced algorithms, showing significant advantages in convergence and robustness. Comparative experiments in six mountainous terrain scenarios with dynamic obstacles show that TQGAOA can adapt flexibly to different levels of complexity, and obtain high-quality paths for UAV planning in a stable and efficient manner.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50955,"journal":{"name":"Aerospace Science and Technology","volume":"168 ","pages":"Article 110950"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Shear creep and failure model of bonded interface in solid rocket motors 固体火箭发动机粘结界面剪切蠕变及破坏模型
IF 5.8 1区 工程技术
Aerospace Science and Technology Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ast.2025.110915
Guanlin Ye , Haitao Sun , Kuangwei Deng , Dan Wu , Zhiqiang Zhang
{"title":"Shear creep and failure model of bonded interface in solid rocket motors","authors":"Guanlin Ye ,&nbsp;Haitao Sun ,&nbsp;Kuangwei Deng ,&nbsp;Dan Wu ,&nbsp;Zhiqiang Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ast.2025.110915","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ast.2025.110915","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>During vertical storage, the bonded interface of solid rocket motors (SRMs) is susceptible to gravity-induced shear creep, which can lead to debonding, cracking, and other damage that compromise the structural integrity and service life of SRMs. Focusing on the creep damage problem in vertically stored SRMs, this study utilizes simulation methods to analyze the stress-strain response of the bonded interface, and the results indicate that, under the combined effects of curing cooling and gravity loading, the interfacial shear stress in the head debonding area of vertical storage motors can be up to 0.3 MPa, and there is a risk of inducing creep damage. Based on this result, shear creep tests were conducted on the bonded interface under applied stresses ranging from 0.1 MPa to 0.85 MPa. The experimental results revealed interfacial shear failure occurs when the shear stress exceeds a critical threshold of 0.5 MPa. A shear creep model for the bonded interface was developed that can simultaneously characterize viscoelastic creep and progressive damage behavior by integrating a crack propagation element into the improved Burgers model. Model validation demonstrates that the fitting error is kept below 6.3 % during the non-destructive stage and does not exceed 11.9 % during the destructive stage, effectively achieving accurate characterization of the entire process from interfacial creep damage to failure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50955,"journal":{"name":"Aerospace Science and Technology","volume":"168 ","pages":"Article 110915"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145093738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Conceptual exploration of two-dimensional hypersonic configuration based on aerodynamic topology 基于气动拓扑的二维高超声速结构概念探索
IF 5.8 1区 工程技术
Aerospace Science and Technology Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ast.2025.110944
Peng Liao , Baopeng Luo , Zheng Chen , Peng Bai , Yudong Zhang , Chuanzhen Liu
{"title":"Conceptual exploration of two-dimensional hypersonic configuration based on aerodynamic topology","authors":"Peng Liao ,&nbsp;Baopeng Luo ,&nbsp;Zheng Chen ,&nbsp;Peng Bai ,&nbsp;Yudong Zhang ,&nbsp;Chuanzhen Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ast.2025.110944","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ast.2025.110944","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Due to the biomimetic design paradigm reaching its limit in this speed domain, what the configuration of hypersonic aircraft should be is a question that needs to be explored. In order to achieve generative design that does not rely on prior knowledge, an aerodynamic topology design method based on parameterized level set method (PLSM) and adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) was established to explore the potential forms of two-dimensional hypersonic configurations. Singularities inherent in aerodynamic topological configurations were systematically classified and identified, with invalid specimens filtered using discrimination algorithms. The results indicate that aerodynamic topology design can obtain various complex topology structures, and some configurations during the optimization process exhibit similar results and flow mechanisms to those of artificially innovative designs such as high-pressure capture wings. The effects of constraints on optimization outcomes were comparatively analyzed. It indicates that aerodynamic topology design can perform generative design without relying on design experience, and that this design paradigm has the potential to explore new conceptual aerodynamic configurations for aircraft.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50955,"journal":{"name":"Aerospace Science and Technology","volume":"168 ","pages":"Article 110944"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145095885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Off-policy reinforcement learning control for space manipulators based on object detection via convolutional neural networks 基于卷积神经网络目标检测的空间机械臂离策略强化学习控制
IF 5.8 1区 工程技术
Aerospace Science and Technology Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ast.2025.110914
Hongji Zhuang , Wenlong Lu , Qiang Shen , Shufan Wu , Vladimir Yu. Razoumny , Yury N. Razoumny
{"title":"Off-policy reinforcement learning control for space manipulators based on object detection via convolutional neural networks","authors":"Hongji Zhuang ,&nbsp;Wenlong Lu ,&nbsp;Qiang Shen ,&nbsp;Shufan Wu ,&nbsp;Vladimir Yu. Razoumny ,&nbsp;Yury N. Razoumny","doi":"10.1016/j.ast.2025.110914","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ast.2025.110914","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper proposes a vision-based control framework that integrates convolutional neural network-based object detection with off-policy reinforcement learning to address the engineering demands of autonomy, robustness, and high control performance in space manipulator operations, as well as to fill gaps in existing vision-based control research. A two-loop architecture comprising a detection loop and a control loop is constructed, with a combined-variable approach employed to simplify the complex image-space dynamics of the space manipulator. On the vision side, a state-of-the-art single-stage object detection network is enhanced with a depth regression module to provide real-time distance feedback. On the control side, an off-policy reinforcement learning algorithm is adopted to achieve model-free optimal control. The proposed integrated vision-based control strategy is validated through both verification and comparative simulations, demonstrating superior autonomy, robustness, and control performance, as well as advantages over the other representative vision-based control method.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50955,"journal":{"name":"Aerospace Science and Technology","volume":"168 ","pages":"Article 110914"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145219742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A new parallel multi-harmonic neural network adaptive filtering hybrid control algorithm for helicopter active vibration control under variable working conditions 针对直升机变工况下的主动振动控制,提出了一种新的并行多谐神经网络自适应滤波混合控制算法
IF 5.8 1区 工程技术
Aerospace Science and Technology Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ast.2025.110942
Jiangtao Deng , Chenxi Wang , Xingwu Zhang , Tian Chen , Xuefeng Chen
{"title":"A new parallel multi-harmonic neural network adaptive filtering hybrid control algorithm for helicopter active vibration control under variable working conditions","authors":"Jiangtao Deng ,&nbsp;Chenxi Wang ,&nbsp;Xingwu Zhang ,&nbsp;Tian Chen ,&nbsp;Xuefeng Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ast.2025.110942","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ast.2025.110942","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Helicopter vibration primarily originates from high-order harmonic vibrations induced by rotor loads. Complex external operating conditions and rotor variable-speed technologies necessitate active vibration control systems capable of adapting to frequency-varying vibrations. Conventional Filtered-x Least Mean Square (FxLMS) algorithms employ constant single convergence factors, making it difficult to adapt to variable working conditions. This paper proposes a new parallel multi-harmonic neural network adaptive filtering hybrid control algorithm to suppress multi-harmonic vibrations under variable working conditions. Bandpass filters are adopted to separate multiple harmonics for parallel control. Leveraging neural networks' strong approximation and memory capabilities, the proposed algorithm conducts reinforcement learning-guided supervised training across multiple environments, significantly enhancing training efficiency and the network's adaptability to frequency changes. In addition, state normalization and denormalization methods are adopted to eliminate the influence of vibration amplitude variation on the network control performance. Concurrently, adaptive filtering ensures the steady-state performance of the algorithm. An active vibration control system for helicopters equipped with electromagnetic inertial actuators has been established. The simulation and experimental results show that compared with the conventional FxLMS algorithm, the proposed control algorithm has a better convergence speed and similar multi-harmonic control effect. Meanwhile, the results of various variable working condition experiments also verify that the proposed algorithm has better adaptability and robustness, thereby effectively adapting to the active vibration control of helicopters with variable rotor speeds.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50955,"journal":{"name":"Aerospace Science and Technology","volume":"168 ","pages":"Article 110942"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145095714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Coupled effects of spatial configuration and phase difference on the aerodynamics of dragonfly-inspired tandem wings 空间构型和相位差对蜻蜓启发串联翼气动特性的耦合影响
IF 5.8 1区 工程技术
Aerospace Science and Technology Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ast.2025.110943
Xiaojun Yang Prof , Haozhe Wang , Yang Luo , Wenqing Yang , Zhantao Li
{"title":"Coupled effects of spatial configuration and phase difference on the aerodynamics of dragonfly-inspired tandem wings","authors":"Xiaojun Yang Prof ,&nbsp;Haozhe Wang ,&nbsp;Yang Luo ,&nbsp;Wenqing Yang ,&nbsp;Zhantao Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ast.2025.110943","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ast.2025.110943","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The tandem wing configuration of dragonflies, combined with the coupling of multiple motion parameters, exhibits distinctive aerodynamic characteristics that enable agile maneuvering across a wide range of flight conditions. In this study, a numerical simulation approach is employed to analyze the coupled effects of spatial configuration (horizontal spacing and vertical spacing) and phase difference on the aerodynamics of dragonfly-inspired tandem wings in terms of force coefficients, vortex dynamics, and aerodynamic power. The results show that, at small phase differences (less than 45°), increasing the horizontal spacing (2c) between the two wings weakens the downwash effect and enhances the peak lift coefficient of the hindwing, while increasing the vertical spacing (2c) strengthens the wake-capturing effect, leading to a 60% increase in the peak thrust coefficient of the hindwing. Meanwhile, increases in both horizontal and vertical wing spacing enhances propulsion efficiency (η) but reduces power loading (PL). At large phase differences (greater than 135°), increasing wing spacing weakens both lift and thrust while improving power loading. These results provide guidance for the aerodynamic optimization and design of tandem flapping-wing vehicles under varying flight requirements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50955,"journal":{"name":"Aerospace Science and Technology","volume":"168 ","pages":"Article 110943"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145105198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Thermo-optical modelling of transparent multilayer panels for space applications in low Earth orbit 近地轨道空间应用透明多层板的热光学建模
IF 5.8 1区 工程技术
Aerospace Science and Technology Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ast.2025.110890
Laura Galuppi , Gianni Royer-Carfagni
{"title":"Thermo-optical modelling of transparent multilayer panels for space applications in low Earth orbit","authors":"Laura Galuppi ,&nbsp;Gianni Royer-Carfagni","doi":"10.1016/j.ast.2025.110890","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ast.2025.110890","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Space windows require transparent materials with superior mechanical, thermal and optical properties. While fused silica has been the traditional choice, acrylic glass is now favored in spacecraft for its cost-effectiveness and radiation shielding capacity, achieved due to radiation absorption. However, this can cause heating, with risks for material integrity especially in space stations at low Earth orbit (LEO), where radiation exposure is more severe than in spacecraft. We investigate the thermal and optical performance of multilayer panels operating in LEO, comparing packages with fused silica, acrylic glass or a combination of both. Using established material properties and a detailed energy transfer model, we calculate temperature distribution under extreme orbital conditions, similar to those on the Cupola of the International Space Station. Two key scenarios are analyzed, considering variations in solar, albedo, and Earth infrared radiation, as well as internal temperature control. The window transmissivity, when calculated within the visible spectrum of sunlight, determines the optical transparency. Our findings identify potential issues with acrylic glass when used in LEO, caused by high radiation absorption. More broadly, our methods permit the evaluation of alternative transparent materials for future applications, contributing to the development of space windows for long-term missions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50955,"journal":{"name":"Aerospace Science and Technology","volume":"168 ","pages":"Article 110890"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145219741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
PC-Transformer: Probabilistic flight trajectory prediction with multi-stage predictive coding PC-Transformer:基于多级预测编码的概率飞行轨迹预测
IF 5.8 1区 工程技术
Aerospace Science and Technology Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ast.2025.110910
Chenglong Ge, Jing Zhang, Linyu Wang, Xuebin Wang, Jiachen Yao, Tianhe Yang, Jianping Du
{"title":"PC-Transformer: Probabilistic flight trajectory prediction with multi-stage predictive coding","authors":"Chenglong Ge,&nbsp;Jing Zhang,&nbsp;Linyu Wang,&nbsp;Xuebin Wang,&nbsp;Jiachen Yao,&nbsp;Tianhe Yang,&nbsp;Jianping Du","doi":"10.1016/j.ast.2025.110910","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ast.2025.110910","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reliable Flight Trajectory Prediction (FTP) is fundamental to critical Air Traffic Management (ATM) applications. Existing FTP methods that employ deterministic point estimation fail to model multi-source uncertainties such as route adjustments and atmospheric turbulence in large-scale data. This limitation restricts the probabilistic outputs needed for risk-aware airspace decisions. To address this, we propose the Predictive Coding Transformer (PC-Transformer). Our approach integrates physical interpretability with high-order probabilistic reasoning through a three-stage framework. First, baseline predictions are generated using classical kinematic models. Second, residual encoding maps prediction errors to discrete index spaces, mitigating high-dimensional computational bottlenecks. Finally, probabilistic mapping is achieved via a multi-scale routing encoder and Mamba-Attention decoder. This captures non-Gaussian features and spatial-topological semantics during trajectory evolution. Extensive experiments on ADS-B datasetsfrom the OpenSky Network and ATC systems demonstrate several key findings: (1) Predictive coding significantly enhances baseline methods, yielding interpretable and highly accurate predictions. (2) PC-Transformer achieves substantial improvements in trajectory prediction accuracy over baseline models. It exhibits particularly strong long-term prediction performance, reducing the mean deviation error (MDE) by 24 %-35 %. (3) Across three representative airspace scenarios and three typical flight states, PC-Transformer accurately predicts basic flight modes from short-term historical trajectories. It also precisely estimates future waypoint motion states and outputs their corresponding probability distributions.Furthermore, the probabilistic outputs provide direct support for critical air traffic control decisions, significantly enhancing conflict detection reliability and slot allocation robustness compared to deterministic baselines.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50955,"journal":{"name":"Aerospace Science and Technology","volume":"168 ","pages":"Article 110910"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145095774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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