Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences最新文献

{"title":"Exploring inferred geomorphological sediment thickness as a new site proxy to predict ground-shaking amplification at regional scale: application to Europe and eastern Türkiye","authors":"Karina Loviknes, F. Cotton, G. Weatherill","doi":"10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. To test whether a globally inferred sediment thickness value from geomorphological studies can be used as a proxy to predict earthquake site amplification, we derive site-amplification models from the relation between empirical amplification for sites in Europe and Türkiye and the geomorphological sediment thickness. The new site-amplification predictions are then compared to predictions from site-amplification models derived using the traditional site proxies, VS30 inferred from slope, slope itself, and geological era and slope combined. The ability of each proxy to capture the site amplification is evaluated based on the reduction in site-to-site variability caused by each proxy. The results show that the highest reduction is caused by geological era and slope combined, while the geomorphological sediment thickness shows a slightly larger or equal reduction in site-to-site variability as inferred VS30 and slope. We therefore argue that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification modelling on regional scale can give an important added value and that globally or regionally inferred models for soil and sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology can have a great potential in regional seismic hazard and risk assessments. Furthermore, the differences between the site-amplification maps derived from different proxies capture the epistemic uncertainty of site-amplification modelling. While the different proxies predict similar features on a large scale, local differences can be large. This shows that using only one proxy when predicting site amplification does not capture the full epistemic uncertainty, which is demonstrated by looking into detail on the site-amplification maps predicted for eastern Türkiye and Syria, where the devastating Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence occurred in February 2023.\u0000","PeriodicalId":508073,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":"30 21","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140737842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"SEATANI: hazards from seamounts in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands (eastern India)","authors":"Andrea Verolino, Su Fen Wee, Susanna Jenkins, Fidel Costa, A. Switzer","doi":"10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Submarine volcanism makes up approximately 85 % of volcanism that occurs on Earth, and its eruptions have the potential to cause several hazards including ash dispersal, pumice rafts, pyroclastic density currents, sector collapses, and tsunamis. Recent examples include the eruptions in Japan and in the Kingdom of Tonga in 2021 and 2022 respectively, but there has been little to no study of submarine volcanism in Southeast Asia and surroundings. Here we provide a compilation of 466 seamounts from the region, from different published sources, through the SEATANI dataset (Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands). We use this newly compiled dataset to assess on a regional level the seamount hazard potential and exposure potential as a springboard for future more quantitative hazard studies of the region. The hazard potential was assessed through seamount morphological and structural analyses, to determine the seamount evolution stage and grade of maturity. The exposure potential was evaluated with two different approaches: an areal analysis of the number of assets within a 100 km radius of each seamount and the development of a hazard-weighted seamount density map to highlight potential areas of interest for future more-in-depth studies. Our results show that there are several potentially hazardous seamounts in this region. Taiwan has the highest hazard and exposure potential, for all assets considered, while the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam have relatively high exposure potential for submarine communication cables and ship traffic density. The results from this work serve as a first step towards Southeast Asia and neighbouring countries becoming more resilient against and prepared for submarine volcanic eruptions in the region.\u0000","PeriodicalId":508073,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":"8 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140737948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Surface rupture kinematics of the 2020 Mw 6.6 Masbate (Philippines) earthquake determined from optical and radar data","authors":"Khelly Shan Sta. Rita, S. Valkaniotis, A. Lagmay","doi":"10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Optical correlation, interferometry, and field investigation of laterally offset features were undertaken to analyze the kinematics of the 2020 Mw 6.6 Masbate earthquake. Ground displacement fields show a peak left-lateral offset of 0.6 m corresponding to Mw 6.6 geodetic moment magnitude, with an average 0.4 m left-lateral slip. The slip distributions also indicate a single asperity located ∼200 m SE of the centroid. Post-seismic deformation estimates from interferometry highlight an at least 0.14 m left-lateral offset consistent with a Mw 6.2 post-seismic moment magnitude. The total and post-seismic slip distributions coincide with each other, with both peaks adjacent to the centroid. Slip measurements and the ∼28.2–41 km rupture length estimates from field and remote sensing datasets characterize the Masbate segment as capable of producing long ruptures with significant offsets despite the presence of interseismic creep. Post-seismic interferograms resolved the rupture far better than optical correlation, which was degraded due to high-amplitude noise from sensor and environmental sources. Nevertheless, this review of the 2020 Mw 6.6 Masbate earthquake provides a comprehensive slip measurement of the surface rupture and demonstrates the presence of two transtensional basins in the Masbate province, revealing new insights into the seismic hazard and seismotectonic setting of the central Philippines.\u0000","PeriodicalId":508073,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":"482 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140749837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A regional early warning for slushflow hazard","authors":"Monica Sund, H. A. Grønsten, Siv Å. Seljesæter","doi":"10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Slushflows are rapid mass movements of water-saturated snow. They release in gently sloping locations (<30°) and are hence not restricted to steep slopes. Slushflows are observed worldwide in areas with seasonal snow cover and pose a significant natural hazard in Norway. Hazard prediction and early warning are therefore crucial to prevent casualties and damage to infrastructure. A regional early warning for slushflow hazard was established in Norway in 2013–2014 as the first of its kind in the world. It has been operational since then. Four main variables are central in the methodology used: ground conditions, snow properties, air temperature, and water supply to snow. Gridded forecasting model simulations in the decision-making tool Varsom Xgeo, real-time data from automatic stations, and field observations from the field are assessed. Based on data from historical slushflows, a water supply–snow depth by snow type ratio has been developed as an assessment tool. This approach can be implemented in other areas with slushflow hazard where the necessary input data are available.\u0000","PeriodicalId":508073,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":"1170 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140748929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region","authors":"Patrick Olschewski, M. Dieng, H. Moutahir, Brian Böker, E. Haas, H. Kunstmann, P. Laux","doi":"10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The Mediterranean Basin is one of the regions most affected by climate change, which poses significant challenges to agricultural efficiency and food security. While rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation levels already impose great risks, the effects of compound extreme events (CEEs) can be significantly more severe and amplify the risk. It is therefore of high importance to assess these risks under climate change on a regional level to implement efficient adaption strategies. This study focuses on false-spring events (FSEs), which impose a high risk of crop losses during the beginning of the vegetation growing period, as well as heat–drought compound events (HDCEs) in summer, for a high-impact future scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The results for 2070–2099 are compared to 1970–1999. In addition, deviations of the near-surface atmospheric state under FSEs and HDCEs are investigated to improve the predictability of these events. We apply a multivariate, trend-conserving bias correction method (MBCn) accounting for temporal coherency between the inspected variables derived from the European branch of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX). This method proves to be a suitable choice for the assessment of percentile-threshold-based CEEs. The results show a potential increase in frequency of FSEs for large portions of the study domain, especially impacting later stages of the warming period, caused by disproportionate changes in the behavior of warm phases and frost events. Frost events causing FSEs predominantly occur under high-pressure conditions and northerly to easterly wind flow. HDCEs are projected to significantly increase in frequency, intensity, and duration, mostly driven by dry, continental air masses. This intensification is several times higher than that of the univariate components. This study improves our understanding of the unfolding of climate change in the Mediterranean and shows the need for further, locally refined investigations and adaptation strategies.\u0000","PeriodicalId":508073,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":"17 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140746052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?","authors":"N. Poncet, P. Lucas‐Picher, Y. Tramblay, Guillume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, A. Alias","doi":"10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Floods are the primary natural hazard in the French Mediterranean area, causing damages and fatalities every year. These floods are triggered by heavy precipitation events (HPEs) characterized by limited temporal and spatial extents. A new generation of regional climate models at the kilometer scale have been developed, allowing an explicit representation of deep convection and improved simulations of local-scale phenomena such as HPEs. Convection-permitting regional climate models (CPMs) have been scarcely used in hydrological impact studies, and future projections of Mediterranean floods remain uncertain with regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper, we use the CNRM-AROME CPM (2.5 km) and its driving CNRM-ALADIN RCM (12 km) at the hourly timescale to simulate floods over the Gardon d'Anduze catchment located in the French Mediterranean region. Climate simulations are bias-corrected with the CDF-t method. Two hydrological models, a lumped and conceptual model (GR5H) and a process-based distributed model (CREST), forced with historical and future climate simulations from the CPM and from the RCM, have been used. The CPM model confirms its ability to better reproduce extreme hourly rainfall compared to the RCM. This added value is propagated on flood simulation with a better reproduction of flood peaks. Future projections are consistent between the hydrological models but differ between the two climate models. Using the CNRM-ALADIN RCM, the magnitude of all floods is projected to increase. With the CNRM-AROME CPM, a threshold effect is found: the magnitude of the largest floods is expected to intensify, while the magnitude of the less severe floods is expected to decrease. In addition, different flood event characteristics indicate that floods are expected to become flashier in a warmer climate, with shorter lag time between rainfall and runoff peak and a smaller contribution of base flow, regardless of the model. This study is a first step for impact studies driven by CPMs over the Mediterranean.\u0000","PeriodicalId":508073,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":"76 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140747407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climatology of large hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database","authors":"Faye Hulton, David M. Schultz","doi":"10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Large hail (greater than 2 cm in diameter) can cause devastating damage to crops and property and can even cause loss of life. Because hail reports are often collected by individual countries, constructing a Europe-wide large-hail climatology has been challenging to date. However, the European Severe Storm Laboratory's European Severe Weather Database provides the only pan-European dataset for severe convective-storm reports. The database is comprised of 62 053 large-hail reports from 40 CE to September 2020, yet its characteristics have not been evaluated. Thus, the purpose of this study is to evaluate hail reports from this database for constructing a climatology of large hail. For the period 2000–2020, large-hail reports are most prominent in June, whereas large-hail days are most common in July. Large hail is mostly reported between 13:00–19:00 local time, a consistent pattern since 2010. The intensity, as measured by maximum hail size, shows decreasing frequency with increasing hailstone diameter and little change over the 20-year period. The quality of reports by country varies, with the most complete reporting being from central European countries. Thus, results suggest that despite its short record, many indications point to the dataset representing some reliable aspects of the European large-hail climatology, albeit with some limitations.\u0000","PeriodicalId":508073,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140748034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing LISFLOOD-FP with the next-generation digital elevation model FABDEM using household survey and remote sensing data in the Central Highlands of Vietnam","authors":"Laurence Hawker, J. Neal, J. Savage, Thomas Kirkpatrick, Rachel Lord, Yanos Zylberberg, Andre Groeger, Truong Dang Thuy, Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, Pham Khanh Nam","doi":"10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Flooding is an endemic global challenge with annual damages totalling billions of dollars. Impacts are felt most acutely in low- and middle-income countries, where rapid demographic change is driving increased exposure. These areas also tend to lack high-precision hazard mapping data with which to better understand or manage risk. To address this information gap a number of global flood models have been developed in recent years. However, there is substantial uncertainty over the performance of these data products. Arguably the most important component of a global flood model is the digital elevation model (DEM), which must represent the terrain without surface artifacts such as forests and buildings. Here we develop and evaluate a next generation of global hydrodynamic flood model based on the recently released FABDEM DEM. We evaluate the model and compare it to a previous version using the MERIT DEM at three study sites in the Central Highlands of Vietnam using two independent validation data sets based on a household survey and remotely sensed observations of recent flooding. The global flood model based on FABDEM consistently outperformed a model based on MERIT, and the agreement between the model and remote sensing was greater than the agreement between the two validation data sets.\u0000","PeriodicalId":508073,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":"14 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139776515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data","authors":"Joseph Smith, C. Birch, John Marsham, S. Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, George Pankiewicz","doi":"10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The Maritime Continent (MC) regularly experiences powerful convective storms that produce intense rainfall, flooding and landslides, which numerical weather prediction models struggle to forecast. Nowcasting uses observations to make more accurate predictions of convective activity over short timescales (∼ 0–6 h). Optical flow algorithms are effective nowcasting methods as they are able to accurately track clouds across observed image series and predict forward trajectories. Optical flow is generally applied to weather radar observations; however, the radar coverage network over the MC is not complete and the signal cannot penetrate the high mountainous regions. In this research, we apply optical flow algorithms from the pySTEPS nowcasting library to satellite imagery to generate both deterministic and probabilistic nowcasts over the MC. The deterministic algorithm shows skill up to 4 h on spatial scales of 10 km and coarser and outperforms a persistence nowcast for all lead times. Lowest skill is observed over the mountainous regions during the early afternoon, and highest skill is seen during the night over the sea. A key feature of the probabilistic algorithm is its attempt to reduce uncertainty in the lifetime of small-scale convection. Composite analysis of 3 h lead time nowcasts, initialised in the morning and afternoon, produces reliable ensembles but with an under-dispersive distribution and produces area under the curve scores (i.e. ratio of hit rate to false alarm rate across all probability thresholds) of 0.80 and 0.71 over the sea and land, respectively. When directly comparing the two approaches, the probabilistic nowcast shows greater skill at ≤ 60 km spatial scales, whereas the deterministic nowcast shows greater skill at larger spatial scales ∼ 200 km. Overall, the results show promise for the use of pySTEPS and satellite retrievals as an operational nowcasting tool over the MC.\u0000","PeriodicalId":508073,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":"282 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139836110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data","authors":"Joseph Smith, C. Birch, John Marsham, S. Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, George Pankiewicz","doi":"10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The Maritime Continent (MC) regularly experiences powerful convective storms that produce intense rainfall, flooding and landslides, which numerical weather prediction models struggle to forecast. Nowcasting uses observations to make more accurate predictions of convective activity over short timescales (∼ 0–6 h). Optical flow algorithms are effective nowcasting methods as they are able to accurately track clouds across observed image series and predict forward trajectories. Optical flow is generally applied to weather radar observations; however, the radar coverage network over the MC is not complete and the signal cannot penetrate the high mountainous regions. In this research, we apply optical flow algorithms from the pySTEPS nowcasting library to satellite imagery to generate both deterministic and probabilistic nowcasts over the MC. The deterministic algorithm shows skill up to 4 h on spatial scales of 10 km and coarser and outperforms a persistence nowcast for all lead times. Lowest skill is observed over the mountainous regions during the early afternoon, and highest skill is seen during the night over the sea. A key feature of the probabilistic algorithm is its attempt to reduce uncertainty in the lifetime of small-scale convection. Composite analysis of 3 h lead time nowcasts, initialised in the morning and afternoon, produces reliable ensembles but with an under-dispersive distribution and produces area under the curve scores (i.e. ratio of hit rate to false alarm rate across all probability thresholds) of 0.80 and 0.71 over the sea and land, respectively. When directly comparing the two approaches, the probabilistic nowcast shows greater skill at ≤ 60 km spatial scales, whereas the deterministic nowcast shows greater skill at larger spatial scales ∼ 200 km. Overall, the results show promise for the use of pySTEPS and satellite retrievals as an operational nowcasting tool over the MC.\u0000","PeriodicalId":508073,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":"27 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139776352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}