Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences最新文献

{"title":"Micro-business participation in collective flood adaptation: lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam","authors":"J. Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, Matthias Garschagen","doi":"10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Although research on the impacts of climate change on small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and their adaptation to climate change risks has recently received more attention, the focus on micro-businesses and household businesses is still very limited. Micro-businesses and household businesses are adversely affected by compound flooding events – a situation that will become more acute in the future – but there is little attention in the scientific literature to their adaptation options and actual implementation. Against this background, the paper analyzes the following research questions. How are micro-businesses already responding to flooding? Are micro-businesses willing to collectively invest in future proactive adaptation efforts in their neighborhoods? What are the key drivers of and barriers to adaptation? Based on scenario-based field experiments in Ho Chi Minh City, our results show that micro-businesses could play a much larger role in collective adaptation. Often overlooked in adaptation research, their willingness to engage in collective action under severe constraints is surprising. The conceptual framework presented in this paper helps us to understand the key drivers of and barriers to micro-business willingness to participate in collective adaptation activities. The most important key barriers for micro-businesses are limited financial capacity and lack of support from local authorities. However, micro-businesses are willing to contribute depending on the concrete adaptation measure and financing options. If no financial contribution is expected, almost 70 % are willing to participate in awareness-raising campaigns. And although their financial capacity is very limited, 39 % of micro-businesses would contribute financially if the costs were shared with other businesses in their neighborhood and with local authorities. In this context, micro-businesses should be much more involved in adaptation plans and measures. Through their local embeddedness, they can be important multipliers in strengthening adaptive capacity at the local level.\u0000","PeriodicalId":508073,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":" 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141829269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparing components for seismic risk modelling using data from the 2019 Le Teil (France) earthquake","authors":"K. Trevlopoulos, P. Gehl, C. Negulescu, Helen Crowley, L. Danciu","doi":"10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk models are essential to improving our awareness of seismic risk, to its management, and to increasing our resilience against earthquake disasters. These models consist of a series of components, which may be evaluated and validated individually, although evaluating and validating these types of models as a whole is challenging due to the lack of recognized procedures. Estimations made with other models, as well as observations of damage from past earthquakes, lend themselves to evaluating the components used to estimate the severity of damage to buildings. Here, we are using a dataset based on emergency post-seismic assessments made after the Le Teil 2019 earthquake, third-party estimations of macroseismic intensity for this seismic event, shake maps, and scenario damage calculations to compare estimations under different modelling assumptions. First we select a rupture model using estimations of ground motion intensity measures and macroseismic intensity. Subsequently, we use scenario damage calculations based on different exposure models, including the aggregated exposure model in the 2020 European Seismic Risk Model (ESRM20), as well as different site models. Moreover, a building-by-building exposure model is used in scenario calculations, which individually models the buildings in the dataset. Lastly, we compare the results of a semi-empirical approach to the estimations made with the scenario calculations. The post-seismic assessments are converted to EMS-98 (Grünthal, 1998) damage grades and then used to estimate the damage for the entirety of the building stock in Le Teil. In general, the scenario calculations estimate lower probabilities for damage grades 3–4 than the estimations made using the emergency post-seismic assessments. An exposure and fragility model assembled herein leads to probabilities for damage grades 3–5 with small differences from the probabilities based on the ESRM20 exposure and fragility model, while the semi-empirical approach leads to lower probabilities. The comparisons in this paper also help us learn lessons on how to improve future testing. An improvement would be the use of damage observations collected directly on the EMS-98 scale or on the damage scale in ESRM20. Advances in testing may also be made by employing methods that inform us about the damage at the scale of a city, such as remote sensing or data-driven learning methods fed by a large number of low-cost seismological instruments spread over the building stock.\u0000","PeriodicalId":508073,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":"17 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141643897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global application of a regional frequency analysis to extreme sea levels","authors":"Thomas P. Collings, Niall Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, S. Muis, William V. Sweet, P. Bates","doi":"10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Coastal regions face increasing threats from rising sea levels and extreme weather events, highlighting the urgent need for accurate assessments of coastal flood risk. This study presents a novel approach to estimating global extreme sea level (ESL) exceedance probabilities using a regional frequency analysis (RFA) approach. The research combines observed and modelled hindcast data to produce a high-resolution (∼1 km) dataset of ESL exceedance probabilities, including wave setup, along the entire global coastline (excluding Antarctica). The methodology presented in this paper is an extension of the regional framework of Sweet et al. (2022), with innovations introduced to incorporate wave setup and apply the method globally. Water level records from tide gauges and a global reanalysis of tide and surge levels are integrated with a global ocean wave reanalysis. Subsequently, these data are regionalised, normalised, and aggregated and then fit with a generalised Pareto distribution. The regional distributions are downscaled to the local scale using the tidal range at every location along the global coastline obtained from a global tide model. The results show 8 cm of positive bias at the 1-in-10-year return level when compared to individual tide gauges. The RFA approach offers several advantages over traditional methods, particularly in regions with limited observational data. It overcomes the challenge of short and incomplete observational records by substituting long historical records with a collection of shorter but spatially distributed records. These spatially distributed data not only retain the volume of information but also address the issue of sparse tide gauge coverage in less populated areas and developing nations. The RFA process is illustrated using Cyclone Yasi (2011) as a case study, demonstrating how the approach can improve the characterisation of ESLs in regions prone to tropical cyclone activity. In conclusion, this study provides a valuable resource for quantifying the global coastal flood risk, offering an innovative global methodology that can contribute to preparing for – and mitigating against – coastal flooding.\u0000","PeriodicalId":508073,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":"90 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141642811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall","authors":"Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, K. Barnhart, N. Oakley","doi":"10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Communities downstream of burned steep lands face increases in debris-flow hazards due to fire effects on soil and vegetation. Rapid postfire hazard assessments have traditionally focused on quantifying spatial variations in debris-flow likelihood and volume in response to design rainstorms. However, a methodology that provides estimates of debris-flow inundation downstream of burned areas based on forecast rainfall would provide decision-makers with information that directly addresses the potential for downstream impacts. We introduce a framework that integrates a 24 h lead-time ensemble precipitation forecast with debris-flow likelihood, volume, and runout models to produce probabilistic maps of debris-flow inundation. We applied this framework to simulate debris-flow inundation associated with the 9 January 2018 debris-flow event in Montecito, California, USA. When the observed debris-flow volumes were used to drive the probabilistic forecast model, analysis of the simulated inundation probabilities demonstrates that the model is both reliable and sharp. In the fully predictive model, however, in which debris-flow likelihood and volume were computed from the atmospheric model ensemble's predictions of peak 15 min rainfall intensity, I15, the model generally under-forecasted the inundation area. The observed peak I15 lies in the upper tail of the atmospheric model ensemble spread; thus a large fraction of ensemble members forecast lower I15 than observed. Using these I15 values as input to the inundation model resulted in lower-than-observed flow volumes which translated into under-forecasting of the inundation area. Even so, approximately 94 % of the observed inundated area was forecast to have an inundation probability greater than 1 %, demonstrating that the observed extent of inundation was generally captured within the range of outcomes predicted by the model. Sensitivity analyses indicate that debris-flow volume and two parameters associated with debris-flow mobility exert significant influence on inundation predictions, but reducing uncertainty in postfire debris-flow volume predictions will have the largest impact on reducing inundation outcome uncertainty. This study represents a first step toward a near-real-time hazard assessment product that includes probabilistic estimates of debris-flow inundation and provides guidance for future improvements to this and similar model frameworks by identifying key sources of uncertainty.\u0000","PeriodicalId":508073,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":"36 24","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141649169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe","authors":"Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, K. Bedka, H. J. Punge, T. Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, I. Cerenzia, S. Di Sabatino","doi":"10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The challenges associated with reliably observing and simulating hazardous hailstorms call for new approaches that combine information from different available sources, such as remote sensing instruments, observations, or numerical modelling, to improve understanding of where and when severe hail most often occurs. In this work, a proxy for hail frequency is developed by combining overshooting cloud top (OT) detections from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) weather satellite with convection-permitting High rEsolution ReAnalysis over Italy (SPHERA) reanalysis predictors describing hail-favourable environmental conditions. Atmospheric properties associated with ground-based reports from the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD) are considered to define specific criteria for data filtering. Five convection-related parameters from reanalysis data quantifying key ingredients for hailstorm occurrence enter the filter: most unstable convective available potential energy (CAPE), K index, surface lifted index, deep-layer shear, and freezing-level height. A hail frequency estimate over the extended summer season (April–October) in south-central Europe is presented for a test period of 5 years (2016–2020). OT-derived hail frequency peaks at around 15:00 UTC in June–July over the pre-Alpine regions and the northern Adriatic Sea. The hail proxy statistically matches with ∼63 % of confirmed ESWD reports, which is roughly 23 % more than the previous estimate over Europe coupling deterministic satellite detections with coarser global reanalysis ambient conditions. The separation of hail events according to their severity highlights the enhanced appropriateness of the method for large-hail-producing hailstorms (with hailstone diameters ≥ 3 cm). Further, signatures for missed small-hail occurrences are identified, which are characterized by lower instability and organization and warmer cloud top temperatures.\u0000","PeriodicalId":508073,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":"58 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141652672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An improved dynamic bidirectional coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic model for efficient flood inundation prediction","authors":"Yanxia Shen, Zhenduo Zhu, Qi Zhou, Chunbo Jiang","doi":"10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. To improve computational efficiency while maintaining numerical accuracy, coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic models based on non-uniform grids are used for flood inundation prediction. In these models, a hydrodynamic model using a fine grid can be applied to flood-prone areas, and a hydrologic model using a coarse grid can be used for the remaining areas. However, it is challenging to deal with the separation and interface between the two types of areas because the boundaries of the flood-prone areas are time dependent. We present an improved Multigrid Dynamical Bidirectional Coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic Model (IM-DBCM) with two major improvements: (1) automated non-uniform mesh generation based on the D-infinity algorithm was implemented to identify the flood-prone areas where high-resolution inundation conditions are needed and (2) ghost cells and bilinear interpolation were implemented to improve numerical accuracy in interpolating variables between the coarse and fine grids. A hydrologic model, the 2D nonlinear reservoir model, was bidirectionally coupled with a 2D hydrodynamic model that solves the shallow-water equations. Three cases were considered to demonstrate the effectiveness of the improvements. In all cases, the mesh generation algorithm was shown to efficiently and successfully generate high-resolution grids in those flood-prone areas. Compared to the original M-DBCM (OM-DBCM), the new model had lower root-mean square errors (RMSEs) and higher Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSEs), indicating that the proposed mesh generation and interpolation were reliable and stable. It can be adequately adapted to the real-life flood evolution process in watersheds and provide practical and reliable solutions for rapid flood prediction.\u0000","PeriodicalId":508073,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":"7 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141665229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tsunami hazard assessment in the South China Sea based on geodetic locking of the Manila subduction zone","authors":"Guangsheng Zhao, X. Niu","doi":"10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. This study provides a dataset and shows the spatial distribution of tsunami hazard in the South China Sea sourced from the Manila subduction zone. The plate motion data around the Manila subduction zone are used to invert the geodetic locking of the Manila subduction zone, further used to estimate the maximum possible magnitude and applied to obtain a more reliable tsunami hazard assessment. The spatial distribution of tsunami wave height with a 1000-year return period is shown, and several high-hazard areas in the South China Sea are pointed out. Uncertainties in the seismic source are explored, including the slip heterogeneity, the upper limit of seismic magnitude and segmentation. The impact of the locking distribution and randomness of slip on tsunami hazard assessment demonstrates that the traditional uniform slip assumption significantly underestimates the tsunami hazard. Moreover, the assessment results involving the effect of the locking distribution should be more realistic and show a larger tsunami height than when only considering the stochastic slip in most areas, which should prompt coastal management agencies to enhance tsunami prevention awareness.\u0000","PeriodicalId":508073,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":"93 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141664241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports","authors":"C. Ryder, Clément Bezier, H. Dacre, R. Clarkson, V. Amiridis, E. Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Z. Kipling, A. Benedetti, M. Parrington, S. Rémy, M. Vaughan","doi":"10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Atmospheric mineral dust aerosol constitutes a threat to aircraft engines from deterioration of internal components. Here we fulfil an overdue need to quantify engine dust ingestion at airports worldwide. The vertical distribution of dust is of key importance since ascent/descent rates and engine power both vary with altitude and affect dust ingestion. We use representative jet engine power profile information combined with vertically and seasonally varying dust concentrations to calculate the “dust dose” ingested by an engine over a single ascent or descent. Using the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) model reanalysis, we calculate climatological and seasonal dust dose at 10 airports for 2003–2019. Dust doses are mostly largest in Northern Hemisphere summer for descent, with the largest at Delhi in June–August (JJA; 6.6 g) followed by Niamey in March–May (MAM; 4.7 g) and Dubai in JJA (4.3 g). Holding patterns at altitudes coincident with peak dust concentrations can lead to substantial quantities of dust ingestion, resulting in a larger dose than the take-off, climb, and taxi phases. We compare dust dose calculated from CAMS to spaceborne lidar observations from two dust datasets derived from the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). In general, seasonal and spatial patterns are similar between CAMS and CALIOP, though large variations in dose magnitude are found, with CAMS producing lower doses by a factor of 1.9 to 2.8, particularly when peak dust concentration is very close to the surface. We show that mitigating action to reduce engine dust damage could be achieved, firstly by moving arrivals and departures to after sunset and secondly by altering the altitude of the holding pattern away from that of the local dust peak altitude, reducing dust dose by up to 44 % and 41 % respectively. We suggest that a likely low bias of dust concentration in the CAMS reanalysis should be considered by aviation stakeholders when estimating dust-induced engine wear.\u0000","PeriodicalId":508073,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":"114 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141665788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying hazard resilience by modeling infrastructure recovery as a resource-constrained project scheduling problem","authors":"Taylor Glen Johnson, Jorge Leandro, D. Ahadzie","doi":"10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Reliance on infrastructure by individuals, businesses, and institutions creates additional vulnerabilities to the disruptions posed by natural hazards. In order to assess the impacts of natural hazards on the performance of infrastructure, a framework for quantifying resilience is presented. This framework expands upon prior work in the literature to improve the comparability of the resilience metric by proposing a standardized assessment period. With recovery being a central component of assessing resilience, especially in cases of extreme hazards, we develop a recovery model based upon an application of the resource-constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP). This recovery model offers the opportunity to assess flood resilience across different events and also, theoretically, between different study areas. The resilience framework and recovery model have been applied in a case study to assess the resilience of building infrastructure to flooding hazards in Alajo, a neighborhood in Accra, Ghana. For the three flood events investigated (5-, 50-, and 500-year return periods) and the chosen standardized assessment period (300 d), the “300 d resilience” successfully shows a meaningful decreasing trend (0.94, 0.82, and 0.69) with increasing hazard magnitude. This information is most valuable for identifying the vulnerabilities of building infrastructure, assessing the impacts resulting in reduced performance, coordinating responses to flooding events, and preparing for the subsequent recovery. This framework expands upon prior work in the literature to improve the comparability of the resilience metric by proposing a standardized assessment period, the “n-time resilience”.\u0000","PeriodicalId":508073,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":" 36","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141679330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila","authors":"H. Lauer, Carmeli M. C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, Jörn Birkmann","doi":"10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Managed retreat, a key strategy in climate change adaptation for areas with high hazard exposure, raises concerns due to its disruptive nature, vulnerability issues and overall risk in the new location. On-site upgrading or near-site resettlement is seen as more appropriate and effective compared to a relocation far from the former place of living. However, these conclusions often refer to only a very limited set of empirical case studies or do not sufficiently consider different context conditions and phases in resettlement. Against this background, this paper examines the conditions and factors contributing to community resilience of different resettlement projects in Metro Manila. In this urban agglomeration reside an estimated 500 000 informal households, with more than 100 000 occupying high-risk areas. In light of the already realized and anticipated climate change effects, this precarious living situation exposes families, already socio-economically vulnerable, to an increased risk of flooding. The response of the Philippine government to the vexing problem of informal dwellers has been large-scale resettlement from coasts, rivers and creeks to state-owned sites at urban fringes. However, only very few resettlement projects could be realized as in-city projects close to the original living space. The study employs a sequential mixed-method approach, integrating a large-scale quantitative household survey and focus group discussions (FGDs) for a robust comparison of resettlement types. Further, it reveals community-defined enabling factors for managed retreat as climate change adaptation strategy. Results indicate minor variations in well-being conditions between in-city and off-city resettlement, challenging the expected impact of a more urban setting on resilience. Instead, essential prerequisites for resettlement involve reduced hazard exposure, secure tenure and safety from crime. Beyond these essential conditions, social cohesion and institutional support systems emerge as significant influencers for the successful establishment of well-functioning new settlements. With this findings, the study contributes to the expanding body of literature on managed retreat, offering a comprehensive evaluation based on extensive datasets and providing entry points for the improvement of retreat as a climate change adaptation strategy.\u0000","PeriodicalId":508073,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":"132 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141681970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}