Environmental Research Letters最新文献

{"title":"A quantitative explanation for the large impacts of El Niño during its decaying stage","authors":"Xuanliang Ji, Juan Feng, Jianping Li, Xingrong Chen, Chunzai Wang","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5e9c","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5e9c","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This study examines the comparative atmospheric circulation and tropical sea surface temperature (SST) relationships during the developing and decaying stages of El Niño from a meridional structure standpoint. Results indicate a transition in the variability of the first two modes of the Hadley Circulation (HC) during these stages, with the first mode exhibiting a larger explained variance in the decaying stage. The regime change in HC variability corresponds to underlying anomalous SST distributions, as confirmed by sensitive experiments. Quantitative assessment reveals the HC-SST response amplitudes are approximately two times stronger during the decaying stage compared to the developing stage. Employing the Kuo-Eliassen (KE) equation, diabatic heating anomalies during the decaying stage explain the difference in air-sea response intensity between the two stages. Diabatic heating variations are identified as the primary contributor to amplification or reduction of air-sea response intensity during the respective El Niño stages, providing insights into the different air-sea processes throughout the El Niño lifespan.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141680765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Harnessing the potential: exploring development opportunities and charting strategic pathways for China’s enhanced engagement in international blue carbon cooperation","authors":"Zhijun Zhang, Zhengkai Mao, Jinpeng Wang","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5e9b","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5e9b","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In light of the urgent need to combat climate change and attain carbon neutrality, the development of blue carbon has emerged as a pivotal strategy for the global community. This approach offers significant potential for both mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change. As a result, international collaboration on blue carbon initiatives has become a focal point in the worldwide response to the climate crisis. China, blessed with extensive blue carbon resources, recognizes the development of these ecosystems as a critical component in its efforts to make a substantial contribution to the global endeavor to curb climate change and achieve sustainable environmental goals. This article offers a comprehensive analysis of China’s opportunities and challenges in international blue carbon collaboration. Despite its vast potential, China faces significant hurdles, including the degradation of blue carbon ecosystems, a delayed start in implementing blue carbon practices, and inconsistencies in the blue carbon standard system. To enhance its participation in global blue carbon initiatives, China should pursue several key strategies, including preserving and restoring its blue carbon ecosystems, strengthening domestic protection and application mechanisms, promoting the construction of an international blue carbon system, establishing a scientific cooperation platform to facilitate capacity building and technology transfer and advocating for an international blue carbon market trading mechanism. By prioritizing these key areas, China can simultaneously foster domestic blue carbon conservation and development while solidifying its role as a pivotal contributor to global climate change mitigation efforts.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141682864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Carbon dioxide removal and net zero emissions in Africa: An integrated assessment modelling based on three different land-based negative emission solutions","authors":"J. Ampah, Sandylove Afrane, H. Adun, Michael Dioha, E. Agyekum, A. A. Yusuf, Mudassar Naseer, O. Bamisile","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5dcf","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5dcf","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 As the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C rapidly diminishes, it is clear that, besides decarbonization, the world must remove gigatonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere. Yet, Africa, where many carbon removal schemes are planned, remains a \"blindspot\" in existing studies. There is limited understanding of the trade-offs and synergies associated with carbon removal within Africa’s energy-land-water system. To address this research gap, we model a stylized net-zero emissions (NZE) in Africa by 2050, with focus on three land-based biological carbon removal approaches: afforestation/reforestation (AR), bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and biochar. We find that by 2050, the total gross carbon removal is projected to reach 1.2 GtCO2/yr when all three carbon removal approaches are available, and 0.5 GtCO2/yr when Africa relies solely on AR. Pursuing NZE with only AR or AR alongside biochar in Africa would be the most expensive mitigation option and would lead to the lowest fossil fuel and industry CO2 emissions and CO2 removal. An NZE by 2050 in Africa could reduce cropland by 30-90% from 2020 to 2050, depending on the CDR deployment strategy adopted. Southern Africa would be particularly affected, facing significant challenges in balancing food security with climate goals. The highest increase in staple food prices will occur under AR only, while the availability of AR-BECCS-biochar produces the lowest rise in staple food prices. Our findings highlight the need for balanced and region-specific carbon dioxide removal strategies to ensure climate and other sustainability goals are met.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141686451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Public attitudes and emotions toward novel carbon removal methods in alternative sociotechnical scenarios","authors":"Emily Cox, Rob Bellamy, Laurie Waller","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5dd0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5dd0","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Despite high expectations about the role of carbon removal in meeting global climate targets, many of the proposed techniques remain nascent. This is especially so for techniques with potential for large-scale, permanent removal of CO2, such as Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) and Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE). In such a context, understanding public attitudes is crucial but challenging, since we do not have enough information about the sociotechnical configurations which might accompany such proposals over future timescales. Carbon removal at scale will not take place in a vacuum – it will co-evolve within political, social, economic, and legal structures which in turn will have a strong influence on public attitudes. This study used a nationally-representative survey (n=1,978) in the UK to test the impact of alternative sociotechnical systems on public attitudes to DACCS and OAE. Participants were randomly assigned to one of five scenario conditions, representing different forms of governance logic (top-down vs bottom-up) and market logic (planned vs liberal economy), plus one with minimal sociotechnical information. We find that the scenario condition significantly impacted perceptions of OAE, with participants preferring its implementation within a bottom-up, planned economy scenario, and rejecting scenarios which most closely resembled the status quo. There were no significant differences between scenarios for DACCS, suggesting that the technology may be more flexible across alternative sociotechnical arrangements. OAE arouses more negative emotions, particularly worry about impacts on ocean ecosystems, whereas DACCS arouses more hope. We found that climate worry is associated with stronger emotions – both positive and negative – toward both techniques, thus CDR could be polarising for the most climate-worried, likely due to tensions between climate urgency and concerns about deterring emissions reductions. The most important criteria for future CDR deployment were deemed to be biodiversity, durability, and cost, with a strong discourse around the current cost-of-living crisis.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141685626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial integration for firm and load-following wind generation","authors":"Javier López Prol, Fernando de Llano Paz, Anxo Calvo Silvosa, S. Pfenninger, Iain Staffell","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5d7d","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5d7d","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Wind power has considerable potential to decarbonise electricity systems due to its low cost and wide availability. However, its variability is one factor limiting uptake. We propose a simple analytical framework to optimise the distribution of wind capacity across regions to achieve a maximally firm or load-following profile. We develop a novel dataset of simulated hourly wind capacity factors for 111 Chinese provinces, European countries and US states spanning ten years (~10 million observations). This flexible framework allows for near-optimal analysis, integration of demand, and consideration of additional decision criteria without additional modelling. We find that spatial integration of wind resources optimising the distribution of capacities provides significant benefits in terms of higher capacity factor or lower residual load and lower variability at sub-, quasi- and inter-continental levels. We employ the concept of firmness as achieving a reliable and certain generation profile and show that, in the best case, the intercontinental interconnection between China, Europe and the US could restrict wind capacity factors to within the range of 15-40% for 99% of the time. Smaller configurations corresponding to existing electricity markets also provide more certain and reliable generation profiles than isolated individual regions.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141693655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rotational complexity across US counties is currently insufficient to observe yield gains in major crops","authors":"E. Burchfield, Michael S Crossley, Katherine S. Nelson","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad300b","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad300b","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Landscape complexity promotes ecosystem services and agricultural productivity, and often encompasses aspects of compositional or configurational land cover diversity across space. However, a key agricultural diversification practice, crop rotation, extends crop land cover complexity concurrently across space and time. Long-term experiments suggest that complex crop rotations can facilitate yield increases in major crops. Using a compiled county-annual panel dataset, we examined whether yield benefits of crop rotational complexity were apparent on a landscape scale in the conterminous US for four major crops between 2008-2020. We found that the benefit of rotational complexity was only apparent for cotton and winter wheat, and that the benefit for wheat was driven by one region. Corn exhibited the opposite pattern, wherein higher yields were consistently obtained with lower rotational complexity, while soybean yield appeared relatively insensitive to rotational complexity. Effects of rotational complexity were sometimes influenced by agrochemical usage. Positive effects of rotational complexity were only apparent with high fertilizer for soybean and wheat, and with low fertilizer for cotton. Corn yield in high-complexity, low-yielding counties appeared to improve with high fertilizer inputs. For the overwhelming majority of acres growing these major crops, crop rotation patterns were quite simple, which when combined with the short time span of available data, may explain the apparent discrepancy between long-term experiments and nationwide data. Current demand and incentives that promote highly intensified and specialized agriculture likely hinder realization of the benefits of rotational complexity for production of key crops in the US. Increasing rotational complexity where major crops are grown thus remains an underutilized approach to mitigate landscape simplification and to promote ecosystem services and crop yields.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140080119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulating the impact of typhoons on Air‐Sea CO2 Fluxes on the northern coastal area of the South China Sea","authors":"Zhao Meng, Yuping Guan, Yang Feng","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad300e","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad300e","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The South China Sea is a typhoon-prone region, and previous studies have shown that typhoons have significant impacts on air-sea CO2 fluxes. However, the effect of typhoons on the northern coastal area of the South China Sea is not well understood owing to limited observational data. In this study, we used a coupled model to simulate the impact of four typhoons (Hato, Mangkhut, Nida, and Merbok) on the partial pressure of CO2 in seawater (pCO2sea) and the CO2 fluxes in this area. Our results show that the coupled model effectively reproduces the spatial pattern of pCO2sea in this region. The response of pCO2sea to typhoons was determined by typhoon-induced vertical mixing and coastal upwelling, along with initial oceanic conditions. Typhoon Nida caused a decrease in pCO2sea with Total Alkalinity (TA) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) being the primary factors. However, typhoons Hato, Mangkhut, and Merbok caused an increase in pCO2sea with Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) playing a more prominent role. The average CO2 fluxes during the passage were approximately 6-14 times higher than those before typhoon passage. These results enhance our understanding of the effect of typhoons on air-sea CO2 fluxes over the northern coastal area of the South China Sea.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140080797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of tropical sea surface temperature on extreme precipitation in Pakistan during the summer of 2022","authors":"Yulan Luo, Lin Liu, Yun Zhang, Shahbaz Mehmood, Yang Yang, Guang Yang, Yongliang Duan, Qiuchi Li, Ai Zeng, Weidong Yu","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad2f77","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2f77","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In August 2022, Pakistan experienced an unprecedented precipitation event that caused significant damage. Analysis of the observations reveals that this extreme rainfall is primarily driven by anomalous atmospheric zonal advection, resulting in an anomalous water vapor concentration in Pakistan. The climatological meridional advection also contributes to this flooding. Anomalous easterly winds and low-level vertical convection combine to be critical factors contributing to the moisture concentration over the country. Further investigation identifies the air-sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean and abnormal warming over the Arabian Sea are crucial factors influencing this extreme flooding event. The concurrent occurrence of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event and the warming sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the northern Arabian Sea intensifies the easterly winds over Pakistan, helping to transfer the anomalous water vapor from the remote region into Pakistan, ultimately contributing to the extreme flooding in 2022.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140081407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modulation of the impact of winter-mean warm Arctic-cold Eurasia pattern on Eurasian cold extremes by the subseasonal variability","authors":"Sai Wang, Minghu Ding, Guancheng Li, Wen Chen","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad2caf","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2caf","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Utilizing ERA5 data, this study provides evidence that both the winter-mean state and subseasonal variability (SSV) of the warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern significantly influence the frequency of cold extremes in Eurasia. The positive phase of winter-mean WACE (WACEMean) or a stronger SSV of WACE (WACESSV) corresponds to a higher occurrence of cold extremes over central Eurasia and East Asia. Furthermore, the study reveals that the impact of WACEMean on the cold extremes is modulated by WACESSV. During years characterized by a positive WACEMean and enhanced WACESSV, the associated winter-mean anticyclonic anomalies, combined with amplified subseasonal circulation fluctuations over the northern Eurasia continent, contribute to a significant increase in the blocking frequency over the Ural-Siberia region. This, in turn, contributes to an intensified occurrence of cold extremes in central Eurasia and East Asia. In contrast, during the years with a positive WACEMean but reduced WACESSV, in the absence of significant changes in the subseasonal circulation fluctuations, the winter-mean anticyclonic anomalies over the northern Eurasia continent do not exert a significant impact on Ural-Siberian blocking frequency by themselves. Consequently, there are no notable anomalies in the frequency of cold extremes over central Eurasia and East Asia. Finally, this study reveals that the differences in the distribution of the frequency anomalies in the blocking between the two sets of years are attributed to the constructive and destructive superposition of anomalies in subseasonal circulation fluctuations related to the WACEMean and WACESSV.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139957297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Agrivoltaic system design tools for managing trade-offs between energy production, crop productivity and water consumption","authors":"Emily Warmann, G. D. Jenerette, Greg Barron-Gafford","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad2ab8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2ab8","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Agrivoltaic systems that locate crop production and photovoltaic energy generation on the same land have the potential to aid the transition to renewable energy by reducing the competition between food, habitat, and energy needs for land while reducing irrigation requirements. Experimental efforts to date have not adequately developed an understanding of the interaction among local climate, array design and crop selection sufficient to manage trade-offs in system design. This study simulates the energy production, crop productivity and water consumption impacts of agrivoltaic array design choices in arid and semi-arid environments in the Southwestern region of the United States. Using the Penman-Monteith evapotranspiration model, we predict agrivoltaics can reduce crop water consumption by 30-40% of the array coverage level, depending on local climate. A crop model simulating productivity based on both light level and temperature identifies afternoon shading provided by agrivoltaic arrays as potentially beneficial for shade tolerant plants in hot, dry settings. At the locations considered, several designs and crop combinations exceed land equivalence ratio (LER) values of 2, indicating a doubling of the output per acre for the land resource. These results highlight key design axes for agrivoltaic systems and point to a decision support tool for their development.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139958193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}