Frontiers in Forests and Global Change最新文献

{"title":"Modeling branch attributes and biomass for Catalpa bungei plantations under various fertilization regimes","authors":"Zhuizhui Guan, Qingbin Zhang, Tiaozi Xu, Dong Chen, Yizeng Lu, Q. Han, Ningning Li, Wenjun Ma, Junhui Wang, Yan Su, Ji-yue Li, Q. Qiu, Qian He","doi":"10.3389/ffgc.2024.1261310","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2024.1261310","url":null,"abstract":"The development and morphology of branches, a crucial step in producing high-quality large-diameter lumber, may be influenced by fertilization. The response of branch attributes to different fertilization regimes, however, is still poorly understood. The Catalpa bungei plantations, which had been growing for 6 years in northern China, were chosen to study how various fertilization measures affected branch attributes. The two fertilization techniques used were hole fertilization (HF) and water and fertilizer integration (WF), with no fertilization (CK) as a control. The quantity, density, morphology (e.g., diameter, length, and angle), and position (e.g., height and orientation) of branches, and organ biomass of 18 standard trees (total of 516 branches) were investigated. The results demonstrated a considerable increase in tree height, diameter at breast height (DBH), canopy ratio, branch quantity, and organ biomass following the addition of fertilizer. Both the maximum branch diameter and the number of branches rose with fertilization. Following fertilization, the number of branches rose by 16% (HF) and 28% (WF) compared to non-fertilized trees, while the maximum branch diameter increased by 3.5% (HF) and 17.3% (WF), respectively. WF led to an increase in the number of branches and largest branch diameter in comparison to CK and HF. The length, angle, and diameter of branches, however, were not affected significantly by different fertilization treatments. There were roughly equal amounts of branches in four orientations. The mixed-model analysis revealed that the number of branches was positively correlated with branch density and tree height. The branch diameter increased with the increase of branch length and angle. The branch length was negatively correlated with branch height and angle. The branch angle showed a larger angle at the bottom of the canopy. Tree height plus diameter at breast height combined, or just the diameter at breast height indicator alone, can both reliably predict the total biomass of trees. The branch models created in this research may offer some theoretical backing for understanding the crown dynamics of valuable tree species in northern China.","PeriodicalId":507254,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Forests and Global Change","volume":"61 41","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140664012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Competition and density dependence in arid mountain forest stands: revealing the complex process from spatial patterns","authors":"Junlong Yang, Jian Yu, Guangping Wang, Xiaowei Li","doi":"10.3389/ffgc.2024.1354240","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2024.1354240","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the spatial patterns and interaction of trees is crucial for exploring forest dynamics. However, limited research has explored the spatial pattern and interactions between adult trees and their offspring population in arid mountain forest ecosystems. We investigated the spatial distribution and interaction of recruitment, survival, and mortality at different size classes in the Populus davidiana forest in the Luoshan Mountains (Ningxia, China), to gain insights into its stand dynamics. (1) This demonstrated the characteristic shift from an aggregated to random distribution as seedlings grew and developed into adult trees. (2) The adult trees exhibited strong positive and weak negative spatial associations with seedlings and saplings, respectively, with an increasing spatial scale, yet both stages underwent stark transitions from negative (1–15 m scales) to positive (> 20 m scale) associations. (3) Generally, the closer the individual trees were to each other, the greater the negative impact of neighboring trees on the size of an individual tree. (4) Additionally, adult trees strongly increased the risk of seedling mortality across the spatial scale of 0–50 m. (5) Live seedlings were less than the dead ones around dead seedlings. There was a stronger aggregation of dead seedlings than live seedlings. Moreover, the density-dependent mortality in our study rejected the random mortality hypothesis. In summary, these results suggest that spatial separation occurs between dead and live seedlings of P. davidiana. Under adult trees, negative dependence plays an important role in the arid mountain forest recruitment. Our findings will contribute to the restoration and conservation of arid mountain forests and provide theoretical support for forest management.","PeriodicalId":507254,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Forests and Global Change","volume":"61 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140677356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ash seedlings in a reciprocal transplant experiment—the extent of damage of mature forest stands affects ash offspring performance","authors":"Katharina S. Haupt, Katharina Mausolf, Jane Lassen, Pia Music, Marei Schippmann, Joachim Schrautzer, Alexandra Erfmeier","doi":"10.3389/ffgc.2024.1355098","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2024.1355098","url":null,"abstract":"In past decades, ash dieback has caused a rapid decline of European ash (Fraxinus excelsior) in temperate forests of Europe. Numerous studies focus on mitigating the negative impacts of ash dieback to forest ecosystems or identifying resistant genotypes. The role of natural selection toward genotypes withstanding ash dieback for ash regeneration has been less frequently studied with experimental means to date. This is, however, necessary in times of global change, because the preservation of ash in Europe’s forests will depend, above all, on the adaptability of the future generations of ash trees. To quantify the extent and effects of ash dieback severity for ash regeneration we selected five forest stands moderately damaged and five forest stands highly damaged by ash dieback, in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany. We reciprocally transplanted naturally regenerated ash seedlings sampled in the field between these 10 sites. A shading treatment added to each half of the plots per site was meant to test for effects of altered light conditions in the herb layer due to canopy opening caused by ash dieback. With this approach, we tested seedling survival, performance and fungal infection for an interacting effect of origin and target site in regard to ash dieback severity and environmental factors over 2 years and recorded leaf traits (specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content) in the second year. Reduced light conditions under the shading nets had strong effects, influencing first year performance and infection probability as well as second year survival, growth and leaf trait characteristics. Soil conditions had only a marginal influence on transplanted seedlings. Transplantation direction between moderately and highly damaged sites affected infection marginally during the first year and survival as well as leaf traits significantly during the second year. Most notably, seedlings transplanted from moderately damaged to severely damaged sites exhibited the highest infection probability and lowest SLA, while seedlings transplanted vice versa were least likely to be infected and exhibited the highest SLA. Results hint at a first filtering effect by the ash dieback history of a forest stand and might indicate a transition from ecologically to evolutionary driven differentiation of ash seedling responses.","PeriodicalId":507254,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Forests and Global Change","volume":"27 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140673381","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Summer climate information recorded in tree-ring oxygen isotope chronologies from seven locations in the Republic of Korea","authors":"En-Bi Choi, Jun-Hui Park, Masaki Sano, T. Nakatsuka, Jeong-Wook Seo","doi":"10.3389/ffgc.2024.1269346","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2024.1269346","url":null,"abstract":"The Republic of Korea is characterized by its north-to-south stretch and high mountain ranges along the eastern coast, resulting in terrain with higher elevation in the east and lower in the west. These geographical features typically lead to regional climate differences, either based on latitude or from east to west. In the present study, for effectiveness, the entire Korean peninsula was divided into four regions based on the geographical features: The Northeast Coast (NEC), Central Inland (MI), Southeast Coast (SEC), and South Coast (SC). Two test sites were chosen from each region, except for the SC. The linear relationship between the altitude of sites and the mean oxygen isotope ratio (δ18O) revealed a negative correlation; the highest (1,447 m a.s.l.) and the lowest altitude (86 m a.s.l.) sites had a mean δ18O of 27.03‰ and 29.67‰, respectively. The sites selected from the same region exhibited stronger correlation coefficients (0.75–0.79) and Glk (Gleichläufigkeit) (74–83%) between the tree-ring oxygen isotope chronologies (δ18OTR chronologies) than those from different regions (0.60–0.69/70–79%). However, subtle variations in pattern were observed in the comparison period during a few selected intervals (approximately 10 years). All the regional δ18OTR chronologies exhibited positive correlations with either June or July temperatures over Korea, whereas negative correlations with regional summer precipitation and SPEI-3. Moreover, the chronologies showed notable negative correlations with the water condition of western Japan. The findings of this study can be used as a scientific reference for the study of variations of rainfall in East Asia using δ18OTR chronology.","PeriodicalId":507254,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Forests and Global Change","volume":"17 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140674223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Growth responses to elevated environmental humidity vary between phenological forms of Picea abies","authors":"A. Sellin, Katrin Heinsoo, P. Kupper, Riho Meier, Eele Õunapuu-Pikas, Taavi Reinthal, K. Rosenvald, A. Tullus","doi":"10.3389/ffgc.2024.1370934","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2024.1370934","url":null,"abstract":"Global warming promotes geographical variability in climate, although the trends differ for the lower and higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. By the end of the current century, the climate models project an increase of up to 20–30% in summer precipitation for northern Europe, accompanied by an increase in atmospheric humidity. Information on the effects of increasing precipitation and air humidity on the performance of northern trees is scant.We studied the effects of artificially elevated air relative humidity (RH) and soil moisture on growth, phenology and needle/shoot morphology of 5-year-old Norway spruce (Picea abies) saplings at the Free Air Humidity Manipulation (FAHM) experimental site in eastern Estonia. The trees were subjected to three treatments: C – control, ambient conditions; H – air humidification, mean relative humidity ~ + 5%; I – soil irrigation, precipitation +15%. Trees from pure stands were sampled from three experimental plots per treatment in 2022.The needle morphology of P. abies was insensitive to moderate changes in air humidity and soil water content in northern mesic conditions. In contrast, the humidity treatments significantly affected shoot size, which decreased in the following order: C > I > H. This finding indicates a certain deceleration of the development of trees’ assimilating surface under elevated air humidity. The humidity manipulation did not influence the timing of bud burst, but the trees differentiated between two phenological forms – early-and late-flushing forms. Trees growing under elevated RH exhibited slower growth rates compared to trees in C and I treatments. The early-flushing trees grew faster, while the late-flushing trees performed better under increasing environmental humidity.At high latitudes, the increasing precipitation and concomitant rise in atmospheric humidity counteract the enhancement of trees’ growth and forest productivity predicted for boreal forests due to global warming. Given that the late phenological form of P. abies is more tolerant of wetter climates and less threatened by late spring frosts, it has a greater potential to adapt to regional climate trends predicted for northern Europe.","PeriodicalId":507254,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Forests and Global Change","volume":" 38","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140689109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Patterns and drivers of tree species diversity in a coniferous forest of northwest China","authors":"Wendong Wang, Jingjing Zhao, Baojiang Zhang, Gang Deng, Alimu Maimaiti, Zhongjun Guo","doi":"10.3389/ffgc.2024.1333232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2024.1333232","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the pattern of species diversity and underlying ecological determinants driving a forest ecosystem is fundamental to conservation biology and forest management. Boreal forests play an irreplaceable role in providing ecosystem services and maintaining the carbon cycle globally, yet research attention remains disproportionately limited and lacking throughout time.Based on field measurement data from a large (25 ha) fully-mapped coniferous forest plot, the present study quantified patterns of species diversity and their determinants in Kanas of Xinjiang, northwest China. We applied linear regression analysis to test the effects of biotic and soil factors on alpha-diversity and local contribution of beta diversity (LCBD), and then we adopted path analysis to test the determinants that affected the species diversity index.Our results revealed that alpha-diversity indices did not vary greatly across different subplots, and richness value (between 2 and 6) was low in Kanas. Noteworthy is the discerned negative association between the average diameter at breast height (DBH) and species richness, suggesting that areas with smaller DBH values tend to harbor greater species richness. For beta-diversity, a higher value was observed in the substory layer (0.221) compared to both the canopy layer (0.161) and the understory layer (0.158). We also found that the species abundance distance matrix of biological and soil environmental factors were significantly correlated with species geographic distance matrices. More importantly, our results showed that average DBH and soil pH would affect the alpha diversity indices, and average DBH, soil Ph, average height and soil total Phosphorous would affect the beta diversity indices. Soil pH also indirectly affected the LCBDunder, LCBDsub, and LCBDcan (p ≤ 0.001), upon mediation of alpha diversity indices. Overall, our results provide crucial revelations about species diversity patterns in boreal forests, and insights that can support the protection of forest biodiversity in China.","PeriodicalId":507254,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Forests and Global Change","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140693180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling the impacts of hot drought on forests in Texas","authors":"Shakirudeen Lawal, Jennifer Costanza, Frank H. Koch, Robert M. Scheller","doi":"10.3389/ffgc.2024.1280254","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2024.1280254","url":null,"abstract":"Under climate change, drought is increasingly affecting forest ecosystems, with subsequent consequences for ecosystem services. An historically exceptional drought in Texas during 2011 caused substantial tree mortality. We used 2004–2019 Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data and state-wide weather data to examine the climatic conditions associated with this elevated tree mortality.We measured moisture extremes (wet to dry) using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at two timescales (12- and 36-month). We quantified heat wave severity using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) over the same period. We performed statistical modeling of the relationship between tree mortality and these indices across four Texas regions (Southeast, Northeast, North Central, and South) and for prominent tree genera (Pinus, Juniperus, Quercus, Liquidambar, Prosopis, and Ulmus) as well as selected species: Quercus stellata, Q. virginiana, and Q. nigra.The highest tree mortality was observed between 2011 and 2013. We found similarity in the trends of the 12- and 36-month SPEI, both of which exhibited more extreme negative intensities (i.e., drought) in 2011 than other years. Likewise, we found that the extreme heat experienced in 2011 was much greater than what was experienced in other years. The heat waves and drought were more intense in East (i.e., Southeast and Northeast) Texas than Central (i.e., North Central and South) Texas. In gradient boosted regression models, the 36-month SPEI had a stronger empirical relationship with tree mortality than the 12-month SPEI in all regions except South Texas, where HWMId had more influence than SPEI at either timescale. The correlations between moisture extremes, extreme heat, and tree mortality were high; typically, mortality peaked after periods of extreme moisture deficit rather than surplus, suggesting that the mortality was associated with hot drought conditions. The effects of extreme heat outweighed those of SPEI for all tree genera except oaks (Quercus). This was also true for oak species other than water oak (Q. nigra). In generalized additive models, the median trend showed tree mortality of Prosopis was higher during conditions of moderate drought (SPEI36 ∼ –1) or worse, but for Pinus and Quercus, mortality started to become apparent under mild drought conditions (SPEI36 ∼ –0.5). The impacts of extreme heat on the mortality of Juniperus occurred when heat wave magnitude reached the ultra extreme category (HWMId > 80) but occurred at lower magnitude for Liquidambar.In summary, we identified risks to Texas forest ecosystems from exposure to climate extremes. Similar exposure can be expected to occur more frequently under a changing climate.","PeriodicalId":507254,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Forests and Global Change","volume":" 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140690761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Response of Alnus glutinosa to Phytophthora bark infections at ambient and elevated CO2 levels","authors":"Markéta Macháčová, Ivana Tomášková, T. Corcobado, Zoltan Nagy, S. Milanovic, Josef Janoušek, V. Pešková, Jaroslav Čepl, Salvador Gezan, O. Nakládal, Václav Zumr, Alina Kalyniukova, I. Milenković, Thomas Jung","doi":"10.3389/ffgc.2024.1379791","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2024.1379791","url":null,"abstract":"Mortality of the riparian alder population caused by Phytophthora pathogens has been studied for over 20 years throughout Europe, recently gaining more importance in the context of evident climate change. The main objective of this study was to examine the pathogenicity of species from the “Phytophthora alni complex” present in the Czech Republic (P. × alni and P. uniformis) and P. plurivora to Alnus glutinosa seedlings grown at ambient and elevated CO2 concentration.An underbark inoculation test was performed with seedlings grown from seeds collected from two Czech alder populations, one suffering from severe Phytophthora decline and the other disease-free.The results showed significant differences in lesion development and seedling mortality. After a 13-week experimental period, at both CO2 levels P. × alni and P. uniformis showed high aggressiveness to A. glutinosa seedlings causing lesions of variable sizes and mortality of 33.3%, and 45.8% of plants, respectively. In contrast, P. plurivora did not cause mortality to any plant, and lesion sizes did not differ significantly from those in control plants. Physiological measurements did not reveal any significant differences between Phytophthora species except for plants inoculated with P. plurivora showing increased values in specific physiological parameters 4 weeks post-inoculation. Net photosynthesis decreased over the measurement period in all treatments with significant differences found between measurements conducted 2 and 4 weeks after the inoculation. Transpiration showed a decreasing trend in all inoculated plants with no significant differences between Phytophthora species at both CO2 levels. Chemical analyses of root samples showed high variability in sugars and phenolic compounds related to the plant's health status.This is the first study to examine the response of alder seedlings to Phytophthora pathogens at different CO2 levels. The findings demonstrate high aggressiveness of P. × alni and P. uniformis and weaker aggressiveness of P. plurivora to alder seedlings regardless of the CO2 level.","PeriodicalId":507254,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Forests and Global Change","volume":"86 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140693860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tubakia spp., Didymella macrostoma and Apiognomonia errabunda causing leaf spot and anthracnose of Quercus robur in the Mura-Drava-Danube Biosphere Reserve","authors":"M. Zlatković, Markus Sallmannshofer, Silvio Schueler, Thomas L. Cech, Milutin Djilas, Gernot Hoch, Katharina Lapin, N. Ogris, B. Piškur, K. Schwanda, S. Stojnić, M. Westergren, Saša Orlović","doi":"10.3389/ffgc.2024.1363141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2024.1363141","url":null,"abstract":"The Mura-Drava-Danube transboundary UNESCO Biosphere Reserve represents one of the best-preserved wetlands in Europe. The Reserve’s riparian forests play a significant role in ecosystem functioning and pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) is one of the keystone species of these forests. In recent years, pedunculate oak trees in the Reserve displayed symptoms of necrotic lesions on their leaves. The lesions varied in size, from small, circular to irregular reddish brown to grayish spots to larger necrotic areas that resembled leaf anthracnose and extended along the leaf nerves. In 2021, symptomatic leaves were collected in three countries of the Reserve, i.e. Austria, Slovenia, and Serbia to identify the causative agents of these diseases. Fungal cultures were obtained from symptoms and identified using morphology and multilocus phylogenetic analyses of the ITS rDNA, partial LSU rDNA, tef 1-α, BT2, CAL, ACT, and RPB2 genes. The fungi were identified as Tubakia dryina, Tubakia sp. (Tubakia dryinoides sensu lato), Didymella macrostoma, and Apiognomonia errabunda. Pathogenicity tests done by inoculating the leaves of one-year old pedunculate oak plants revealed that the isolated fungi caused symptoms as those seen in the forest. To our knowledge, this study represents the first report of D. macrostoma as the cause of pedunculate oak leaf spot disease in Serbia and worldwide. It is also the first finding of Tubakia leaf spot disease of pedunculate oak caused by T. dryina in Austria and Serbia. Moreover, Tubakia sp. was proven to be another causative agent of Tubakia leaf spot disease. Additionally, oak anthracnose caused by A. errabunda was found for the first time on pedunculate oak leaves in Austria and Slovenia. During the past decade, pedunculate oak trees have been facing increasing threats from multiple abiotic and biotic factors which has resulted in decline and absence of natural regeneration of these trees. The results of this study add to the understanding of the contributing factors to the decline of pedunculate oak in riparian forests and are important for the development of management strategies to counteract this decline.","PeriodicalId":507254,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Forests and Global Change","volume":" 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140691388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Cytospora chrysosperma in Xinjiang, China under climate change scenarios","authors":"Quansheng Li, Shanshan Cao, Wei Sun, Zhiyong Zhang","doi":"10.3389/ffgc.2024.1370365","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2024.1370365","url":null,"abstract":"Cytospora canker caused by Cytospora chrysosperma has a wide range of hazards in Xinjiang, seriously affecting the development of Xinjiang’s characteristic forest and fruit industries. Climate change affects the distribution of fungal species and may exacerbate the risk of forest diseases such as cytospora canker. The present study was conducted on C. chrysosperma and makes predictions of potentially suitable area based on 133 records of C. chrysosperma distribution points and 47 environmental factors. We applied the MaxEnt model adjusted by the Kuenm package for feature class parameters (FC) and regularization multipliers (RM) to explore the main environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of C. chrysosperma. And then we predicted its spatial distribution pattern and centroid change trend in potentially suitable area under three different Representative Concentration Pathways in the current scenario, 2041–2070, and 2071–2,100. The results showed that the optimal model with parameters FC = LQ and RM = 0.3 had the lowest model complexity and overfitting, and the model predicted with very high accuracy, AUC = 0.971 ± 0.0019. Considering the percent contribution, permutation importance of jackknife and single-factor response curve, the main environmental factors affecting its geographical distribution are precipitation seasonality (bio15), aspect cosine (aspectcosine), monthly variability in potential evapotranspiration (PETseasonality), and mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of the coldest quarter (PETColdestQuarter), with a cumulative contribution rate reaching 70.8%. Under the current climate scenarios, the total suitable area for C. chrysosperma is 82.35 × 104 km2, and the highly suitable area is 5.49 × 104 km2, accounting for 6.67% of the total suitable area, primarily located in the Tacheng, Yili, and Changji regions. Meanwhile, centroid transfer analysis indicates a tendency for its distribution to migrate towards lower latitudes under future climatic conditions. The MaxEnt model proposed in this study can be used to predict the distribution and risk of C. chrysosperma in Xinjiang and provide guidance for the prevention and control of cytospora canker.","PeriodicalId":507254,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Forests and Global Change","volume":"112 s428","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140694322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}