Dendrochronologia最新文献

{"title":"Salinity regulates radial growth of Cynometra ramiflora L. in the Sundarbans mangrove ecosystem","authors":"Md. Qumruzzaman Chowdhury ,&nbsp;Swapan Kumar Sarker ,&nbsp;Shahadat Hossain,&nbsp;Md. Imam Hossain Imran,&nbsp;Anup Datta","doi":"10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126270","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126270","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The mangrove biome is threatened by global environmental changes (including sea level rise, SLR) and anthropogenic disturbances. In this context, understanding the growth dynamics of mangrove species is essential for designing effective management plans for critical mangrove ecosystems such as the Bangladesh Sundarbans. Therefore, this study aims to (1) identify the growth-ring boundaries and tested their periodicity (annual nature) in one of the ecologically important understory mangrove species, <em>Cynometra ramiflora</em> in the Bangladesh Sundarbans, (2) determine the influences of climate and river discharge on radial growth, and (3) examine the influence of habitat variables (e.g., regulators, resources and forest structure) on radial growth. The growth-ring boundaries of <em>C. ramiflora</em> were distinct on the polished wood discs and marked by a layer of flattened fibers mixed with parenchyma. The agreement between individual growth-ring series and chronology statistics enabled us to develop for the first time a 42-year-long chronology spanning from 1979 to 2021. The results indicate that growth rings are annual and could be used for age and growth rate estimations. Monsoonal and annual precipitation enhanced radial growth. Growth was also positively influenced by the amount of river discharge received prior to the onset of growth, particularly during the pre-monsoon. Generalized additive models (GAMs) revealed that among the habitat variables, salinity had a strong negative influence on radial growth of the studied species in the Sundarbans, while tree density and diameter heterogeneity (coefficient of variation, CoV of diameter at breast height) had positive influences. This study revealed that <em>C. ramiflora</em> growth is strongly dependent on soil salinity and highlighted the potential of this approach for improving the prediction of future tree growth and distribution in the face of projected global changes, in particular, SLR.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50595,"journal":{"name":"Dendrochronologia","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 126270"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142424865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Changes in the radial growth patterns of two dominant tree species in north-central China under climate warming","authors":"Jiachuan Wang ,&nbsp;Shuheng Li ,&nbsp;Yili Guo ,&nbsp;Yijie Han ,&nbsp;Qi Liu ,&nbsp;Yiqi Zhao ,&nbsp;Qiang Li","doi":"10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126269","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126269","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The radial growth pattern of alpine coniferous trees in the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere has an unstable and inconsistent response to climate warming. Understanding the growth trends of trees in the past and future is crucial for forest cultivation against the background of climate change. Thus, we used traditional dendroclimatological methods to analyze the radial growth patterns and stability in response to climate change of the two dominant species on Guancen Mountain and concluded that: (1) the radial growth of <em>Larix principis-rupprechtii</em> was more sensitive than that of <em>Picea meyeri</em> to climatic factors; (2) before and after the abrupt temperature change, the major controlling climatic factors for the radial growth of the two dominant species were spring precipitation and mean temperature, respectively; (3) before the abrupt temperature change, the radial growth of <em>L. principis-rupprechtii</em> was affected by the mean temperature in autumn, while that of <em>P. meyeri</em> was restricted by the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index in spring; after the abrupt temperature change, the major controlling climate factors of <em>L. principis-rupprechtii</em> and <em>P. meyeri</em> were winter drought and the combination of water and heat in summer, respectively; and (4) after the abrupt temperature change, the interannual basal area increments of the two species followed an upward trend, however, the radial growth rate of both species decreased after detrending, and the growth and development of both species were seriously stressed by drought. Under the background of climate warming, to explore the coping situation of different tree species in the same habitat, to provide theoretical and mechanism support for the future cultivation of forests according to local conditions, and to provide suggestions for the \"greening\" problem fundamentally.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50595,"journal":{"name":"Dendrochronologia","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 126269"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142424922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tree-ring anomalies as time markers for ice-core chronologies, with special reference to 5281 BCE as the possible date of the Kikai volcanic event","authors":"Varvara A. Bessonova ,&nbsp;Ludmila A. Gorlanova ,&nbsp;Rashit M. Hantemirov","doi":"10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126271","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126271","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The synchronization of Greenland and Antarctica ice core data with tree-ring data, other proxies, and direct observations of natural processes and events is important to understand past climatic variation and environmental change. One of the methods that is used to correct the dating of ice layers is to match volcanic eruption footprints in ice cores with tree rings, manifested as sulphate spikes and anomalous rings, respectively. In this study, we inventoried the occurrence of tree-ring anatomical anomalies and extremes in ring width during three 200-year periods. These periods included three of the eight largest Holocene volcanic eruptions, each with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 7. The initial period spanned from 6560 to 6360 BCE and included the eruption of Ilyinsky Volcano in Kamchatka. The second period was from 5780 to 5580 BCE, during which Mount Mazama Volcano in North America erupted. The third period was from 5380 to 5180 BCE when the Kikai Volcano in the Japanese Islands erupted. Throughout the first two periods, no substantial tree-ring anomalies were observed suggesting the absence of any significant climate consequences of a major volcanic eruption. However, in the 5380–5180 BCE period, a clear sharp decline in tree growth and an exceptionally high frequency of tree-ring anomalies were identified in 5281 BCE and the subsequent 5 years. We propose that the exceptionally narrow light rings in these 6 years are indicative of the climatic impact resulting from the Kikai volcanic eruption. We suggest utilising the year 5281 BCE as the reference year for synchronising the Greenland and Antarctica ice core chronologies. In the case that our assumption is correct, this would imply the necessity to adjust the time of the event to an earlier date compared to the dates indicated by the existing ice core chronologies of the GICC05 (Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005), adjusted according to Kobashi (2017), and WD2014 used for creating HolVol 1.0 (Holocene ice-core volcanic eruption catalogue from 9500 BCE - 1900 CE) by 67 and 54 years, respectively, for the period around 5300 BCE. A verification of our assumption could be conducted by examining the nearby Miyake event, a spike in cosmogenic radiocarbon, of 5258 BCE. Ice core layers displaying potential signs of this event should be approximately 25 years later than the markers of the Kikai volcanic eruption.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50595,"journal":{"name":"Dendrochronologia","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 126271"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142444700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tree-ring blue intensity measurements from treeline sites in the Ural Mountains exhibit a strong summer temperature signal","authors":"Viktoria V. Agapova ,&nbsp;Alberto Arzac ,&nbsp;Vladimir V. Kukarskih ,&nbsp;Ulf Büntgen ,&nbsp;Jan Esper ,&nbsp;Alexander V. Kirdyanov","doi":"10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126267","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126267","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The high northern latitudes offer an ideal environment to analyze tree growth responses to unprecedented recent warming. In this study, for the first time, we explore the dendroclimatological potential of latewood blue intensity (LWBI) and delta blue intensity (DBI) at two Siberian larch (<em>Larix sibirica</em> Ledeb.) sites in the upper treeline ecotone of the Ural Mountains, northern Russia. To assess the climate signals encoded in LWBI and DBI, as well as tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD), we correlated these parameter-specific chronologies against monthly temperature means, precipitation totals, and the SPEI index. LWBI and BDI exhibit robust and stable positive correlations with summer temperature, higher than TRW but slightly lower than MXD at both sites, with marginal negative effects from precipitation and strong negative correlations with SPEI. As direct surrogates for MXD, LWBI and DBI from larch trees offer reasonable alternatives as proxies for temperatures in northern latitudes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50595,"journal":{"name":"Dendrochronologia","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 126267"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142319145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climatic and disturbances influence on tree-rings of Larix gmelinii in the southeast coastal area","authors":"Marina Evgenienva Rubleva ,&nbsp;Anna Stepanovna Vozmishcheva ,&nbsp;Svetlana Nikolaevna Bondarchuk","doi":"10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126264","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126264","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The vast region of North East Asia is covered by primary mixed conifer-broadleaved forests which include a range of different tree species. A key factor in the dynamics of these ecosystems is wind disturbance. According to reports, this factor will be increasingly important as a result of the poleward migration of tropical cyclones, a characteristic of which is strong wind. At the same time, global climate change may reduce the recovery potency of some species and lead to new combinations of species. Gmelin Larch is one of the key early succession species in the north of the region. In the southeastern part of its range (Russian Far East), this species has not been widely studied by dendroclimatologists and there are no dendroecological studies available. This study shows how the seasonal growth of Larix gmelinii responds to changes in climate, specifically to variations in precipitation and temperature. The study has established that these trees are more affected by rising temperatures than by consistent precipitation levels, provided there is no shortage of water. Interestingly, after the 1970s there was a change in the climate sensitivity of Larix gmelinii in June (the month with the strongest correlation). It went from a negative correlation with temperature to a positive correlation with precipitation. By using tree ring data, we were able to reconstruct the past history of forest disturbance. The peaks in this chronology coincide with those in earlier published dendroecological reconstructions for other species. They indicate that the radial growth of larch is sensitive to canopy changes. We recorded two release peaks in the 1960s and 2000s, during the period of meteorological observations. We attributed the first peak to the most powerful tropical cyclone Emma (1956). We assume also that the second peak reflects the recent intensification of tropical cyclones in the region. In our opinion, the change in microclimate as a result of disturbance has altered the relationship to climate in such a way that disturbance may cause tree growth to be dependent on precipitation. At the same time, such low correlations do not support a conclusion about the strong negative influence of the current climate on the trees.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50595,"journal":{"name":"Dendrochronologia","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 126264"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142312109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Local and regional climatic constraints of shrub and tree growth near the treeline","authors":"J. Julio Camarero ,&nbsp;Antonio Gazol ,&nbsp;Elisa Tamudo ,&nbsp;Pavel A. Moiseev ,&nbsp;Michele Colangelo ,&nbsp;Cristina Valeriano","doi":"10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126256","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126256","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Many treeline and shrublines are not responding to climate warming as fast as expected. This lack of responsiveness could be explained by other non-thermal, climate drivers operating at the cold edge of distribution of trees and shrubs. To determine which are the main climate drivers of tree and shrub radial growth near the treeline we measured ring width and related it to climate variables (temperature, precipitation, snow depth) and vegetation greenness (NDVI, Normalized Different Vegetation Index). We compared two dwarf shrub (<em>Vaccinium uliginosum</em>, <em>Dryas octopetala</em>) and three tree species (<em>Larix sibirica</em>, <em>Picea obovata</em>, <em>Pinus uncinata</em>) sampled in three treeline sites: Polar or Northern Urals, Southern Urals, and Spanish Pyrenees. Dwarf shrubs presented lower first-order autocorrelation (AR1) than trees, excepting in the N. Urals site. In this site, <em>V. uliginosum</em> showed a negative growth trend, whereas this tendency was observed in <em>P. obovata</em> and <em>P. uncinata</em> trees from the S. Urals and Pyrenees sites, respectively. Shrub and tree growth indices correlated with NDVI at different months. Trees showed stronger and positive growth responses to warmer summer conditions and also negative responses to precipitation in the N. and S. Urals. The growth of <em>D. octopetala</em> in the Pyrenees was enhanced by prior-winter and current-spring precipitation showing a strong correlation with May snow depth (<em>r</em> = 0.66, <em>p</em> = 0.0006, period 1998−2020). Dwarf shrubs and trees coexisting near the treeline differently responded to regional climate variability. Our findings indicate a strong dependence of shrubs and trees on local (e.g., snow depth) and regional (e.g., growing-season air temperature) climate conditions, respectively.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50595,"journal":{"name":"Dendrochronologia","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 126256"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1125786524000936/pdfft?md5=4e2c88e77eefb321c03808ae8eea949b&pid=1-s2.0-S1125786524000936-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142151600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Collecting large diameter cores from living trees with commercial drill bits and increment borers","authors":"Lee Grace ,&nbsp;Erin Price ,&nbsp;Emily Crumley ,&nbsp;Phil Guillery ,&nbsp;Victor Deklerck ,&nbsp;Kent Elliott ,&nbsp;Ellen Crocker","doi":"10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126255","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126255","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Foresters and scientists worldwide rely on the use of increment borers to collect wood cores from living trees for dendrochronology and a range of other applications. While there are many different types of increment borers, 4–5 mm diameter manual borers are most frequently used. Although these standard-size devices have a long history with well-established protocols, a range of newer analyses require the collection of larger diameter cores from living trees. To meet these needs, researchers worldwide have developed an array of techniques to collect these types of samples but little information is available comparing approaches and synthesizing options. Here, we summarize work testing several different commonly employed techniques for excising larger width (∼10 mm diameter) cores from living trees, comparing strengths and weaknesses of each approach. In addition to informing the selection of methods and equipment for researchers collecting larger diameter cores, this information may also provide new ideas for exploring core collection options beyond traditional increment borers.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50595,"journal":{"name":"Dendrochronologia","volume":"87 ","pages":"Article 126255"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142122635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interspecific, conspecific, and ontogenetic responses of tree rings to climate: A case study utilizing Carya glabra, Carya ovata, Carya tomentosa, and Quercus montana from an Oak-Hickory Forest in Southeastern Ohio","authors":"Aaron J. Rudolph ,&nbsp;Rebecca S. Snell,&nbsp;Elena Delach,&nbsp;Brian C. McCarthy","doi":"10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126254","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126254","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate change in eastern North America is likely to impact the abundance and distribution of the region’s tree species. However, determining the degree to which species will be impacted by altered climates is challenging. Dendrochronology research aimed at understanding relationships between climate and annual ring-width is one way of understanding how climate change may impact forest communities. Oak (<em>Quercus</em> spp.) and hickory (<em>Carya</em> spp.) are two foundational groups of trees likely to undergo changes in abundance and distribution due to climate change. The goal of this study was to compare the radial growth climate sensitivity of three common and co-occurring hickory species (<em>Carya glabra</em>, <em>Carya ovata</em>, and <em>Carya tomentosa</em>) to ecologically similar <em>Quercus montana</em> in southeast Ohio. Also, this study compared conspecific radial-growth climate responses between canopy and subcanopy trees to assess the impacts of climate and drought on subcanopy forest layers. All four species in the forest canopy demonstrated significant positive relationships to growing season precipitation, significant negative relationships with growing season temperature, and significant positive relationships with growing season site water balance. Subcanopy chronologies for all four species demonstrated weaker growth responses to climate, with only <em>Carya glabra</em> demonstrating significant growth relationships with May precipitation and site water balance. Additionally, the increased drought resistance of subcanopy trees provided some evidence of the forest overstory buffering the impacts of climate variability on understory trees. Overall, ontogenetic differences in tree sensitivity to climate variability and drought show that climate change likely has the potential to influence the forest understory, but the degree to which systems are impacted may be highly species-specific.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50595,"journal":{"name":"Dendrochronologia","volume":"87 ","pages":"Article 126254"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141991084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sensitivity of sub-annual grey pine (Pinus sabiniana) stem growth to water supply and demand in central California","authors":"Jackie Y. Ho ,&nbsp;Miriam R. Johnston ,&nbsp;Matthew P. Dannenberg ,&nbsp;Antoine Cabon ,&nbsp;Paul R. Moorcroft","doi":"10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126253","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126253","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><em>Pinus sabiniana</em> (grey pine) is a common associate of <em>Quercus douglasii</em> (blue oak) in the iconic, ecologically-rich, and economically-relevant Mediterranean woodland savannah of California, USA. While there are dozens of <em>Q. douglasii</em> sites in the International Tree-Ring Data Bank, <em>P. sabiniana</em> was conspicuously absent, and little is known about its growth patterns or water relations. Here, we introduce a new tree-ring chronology of <em>P. sabiniana</em> collected in central California and assess climatic drivers of annual and sub-annual growth. Specifically, we examine earlywood, latewood, and total annual ring widths and analyse their relationships with variables related to water supply (precipitation, soil moisture) and water demand (air temperature, potential evaporation rate). Annual and earlywood widths had nearly identical responses to climate, likely because annual widths mostly consisted of earlywood (mean: 88 %). In both cases, growth was strongly and positively associated with water supply and negatively associated with water demand. Soil moisture was, by far, the strongest and most temporally-consistent correlate of <em>P. sabiniana</em> growth: correlations between soil moisture and annual growth were &gt;0.8 for five contiguous 3-month seasons. Other variables were significant, in part, because of their influence on soil moisture. The association between latewood growth and climate was qualitatively similar but weaker and, with the exception of soil moisture, more seasonally localised (precipitation was relevant in winter and early spring and water demand variables were relevant in summer, somewhat later in the season than for total ring width and earlywood). Further, <em>P. sabiniana</em> growth was nearly always more sensitive to soil moisture than growth of either co-located <em>Q. douglasii</em> or <em>P. ponderosa</em> (ponderosa pine) at a neighbouring site, suggesting that it may act as a particularly sensitive harbinger of drought stress in this ecosystem.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50595,"journal":{"name":"Dendrochronologia","volume":"87 ","pages":"Article 126253"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141991085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Declining trends in long-term Pinus pinea L. growth forecasts in Southwestern Spain","authors":"Fabio Natalini ,&nbsp;Reyes Alejano ,&nbsp;Marta Pardos ,&nbsp;Rafael Calama ,&nbsp;Javier Vázquez-Piqué","doi":"10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126252","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126252","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Warmer and drier climate is among the main factors of the declining processes reported and expected for the future in the Mediterranean forest ecosystems. <em>Pinus pinea</em> is one the main Mediterranean conifers and its largest populations are in SW Spain, providing multifunctional services. The sensitivity of this species to drought is known, but the potentiality of its productivity to decline in SW Spain has not been yet assessed. We modeled <em>P. pinea</em> growth with climate covariates and a large set of tree ring chronologies from the beginning of the 20th century to the 2010s. Then we forecast annual increments over the period 2030–2100 using regionalized estimates of a global change model in three scenarios of greenhouse gas concentration. The climatic conditions between winter and mid spring were the most significant for the model. The climate predictions indicated an increase of potential water stress, and our forecasts described downturn trends of the annual growth, more accentuated in the scenario with the highest emissions and temperatures. These are the first long-term forecasts of growth of <em>P. pinea</em> in SW Spain. Our model cannot be directly applied at higher latitudes, where previous studies have shown differences in climate-growth relationships, but provides a benchmark for research and forestry of the potential climate-driven decrease of productivity of the <em>P. pinea</em> populations in the Southern Iberian Peninsula.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50595,"journal":{"name":"Dendrochronologia","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 126252"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1125786524000894/pdfft?md5=a796b9b5ec6721b0a8c9575d03528005&pid=1-s2.0-S1125786524000894-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141960765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}