Environmental and Ecological Statistics最新文献_第2页

A pre-whitening with block-bootstrap cross-correlation procedure for temporal alignment of data sampled by eddy covariance systems 用于涡度协方差系统采样数据时间配准的预白化与分块-bootstrap 交叉相关程序

IF 3.8 4区环境科学与生态学

Environmental and Ecological Statistics Pub Date : 2024-04-21 DOI: 10.1007/s10651-024-00615-9

Vitale Domenico, Fratini Gerardo, Helfter Carol, Hortnagl Lukas, Kohonen Kukka-Maaria, Mammarella Ivan, Nemitz Eiko, Nicolini Giacomo, Rebmann Corinna, Sabbatini Simone, Papale Dario

{"title":"A pre-whitening with block-bootstrap cross-correlation procedure for temporal alignment of data sampled by eddy covariance systems","authors":"Vitale Domenico, Fratini Gerardo, Helfter Carol, Hortnagl Lukas, Kohonen Kukka-Maaria, Mammarella Ivan, Nemitz Eiko, Nicolini Giacomo, Rebmann Corinna, Sabbatini Simone, Papale Dario","doi":"10.1007/s10651-024-00615-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-024-00615-9","url":null,"abstract":"The eddy covariance (EC) method is a standard micrometeorological technique for monitoring the exchange rate of the main greenhouse gases across the interface between the atmosphere and ecosystems. One of the first EC data processing steps is the temporal alignment of the raw, high frequency measurements collected by the sonic anemometer and gas analyser. While different methods have been proposed and are currently applied, the application of the EC method to trace gases measurements highlighted the difficulty of a correct time lag detection when the fluxes are small in magnitude. Failure to correctly synchronise the time series entails a systematic error on covariance estimates and can introduce large uncertainties and biases in the calculated fluxes. This work aims at overcoming these issues by introducing a new time lag detection procedure based on the assessment of the cross-correlation function (CCF) between variables subject to (i) a pre-whitening based on autoregressive filters and (ii) a resampling technique based on block-bootstrapping. Combining pre-whitening and block-bootstrapping facilitates the assessment of the CCF, enhancing the accuracy of time lag detection between variables with correlation of low order of magnitude (i.e. lower than (-1)) and allowing for a proper estimate of the associated uncertainty. We expect the proposed procedure to significantly improve the temporal alignment of the EC time-series measured by two physically separate sensors, and to be particularly beneficial in centralised data processing pipelines of research infrastructures (e.g. the Integrated Carbon Observation System, ICOS-RI) where the use of robust and fully data-driven methods, like the one we propose, constitutes an essential prerequisite.","PeriodicalId":50519,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Ecological Statistics","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140625874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Optimal estimation of the length-biased inverse Gaussian mean with a case study on Eastern Tropical Pacific dolphins 长度偏置反高斯平均值的最优估算与东太平洋热带海豚案例研究

IF 3.8 4区环境科学与生态学

Environmental and Ecological Statistics Pub Date : 2024-04-18 DOI: 10.1007/s10651-024-00611-z

Sudeep R. Bapat, Neeraj Joshi

引用次数: 0

A mathematical model with uncertainty quantification for allelopathy with applications to real-world data 不确定性量化的等位基因数学模型与真实世界数据的应用

IF 3.8 4区环境科学与生态学

Environmental and Ecological Statistics Pub Date : 2024-04-17 DOI: 10.1007/s10651-024-00612-y

Vicente J. Bevia, Juan-Carlos Cortés, Ana Moscardó, Cristina Luisovna Pérez, Rafael-Jacinto Villanueva

{"title":"A mathematical model with uncertainty quantification for allelopathy with applications to real-world data","authors":"Vicente J. Bevia, Juan-Carlos Cortés, Ana Moscardó, Cristina Luisovna Pérez, Rafael-Jacinto Villanueva","doi":"10.1007/s10651-024-00612-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-024-00612-y","url":null,"abstract":"We revisit a deterministic model for studying the dynamics of allelopathy. The model is formulated in terms of a non-homogeneous linear system of differential equations whose forcing or source term is a piecewise constant function (square wave). To account for the inherent uncertainties present in this natural phenomenon, we reformulate the model as a system of random differential equations where all model parameters and the initial condition are assumed to be random variables, while the forcing term is a stochastic process. Taking extensive advantage of the so-called Random Variable Transformation (RVT) method, we obtain the solution of the randomized model by providing explicit expressions of the first probability density function of the solution under very general assumptions on the model data. We also determine the joint probability density function of the non-trivial equilibrium point, which is a random vector. If the source term is a time-dependent stochastic process, the RVT method might not be applicable since no explicit solution of the model is available. We then show an alternative approach to overcome this drawback by applying the Liouville–Gibbs partial differential equation. All the theoretical findings are illustrated through several examples, including the application of the randomized model to real-world data on alkaloid contents from leaching thornapple seed.","PeriodicalId":50519,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Ecological Statistics","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140615439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exploring the effects of temperature on demersal fish communities in the Central Mediterranean Sea using INLA-SPDE modeling approach 利用 INLA-SPDE 建模方法探索温度对地中海中部底栖鱼类群落的影响

IF 3.8 4区环境科学与生态学

Environmental and Ecological Statistics Pub Date : 2024-04-06 DOI: 10.1007/s10651-024-00609-7

Claudio Rubino, Giada Adelfio, Antonino Abbruzzo, Mar Bosch-Belmar, Manfredi Di Lorenzo, Fabio Fiorentino, Vita Gancitano, Francesco Colloca, Giacomo Milisenda

{"title":"Exploring the effects of temperature on demersal fish communities in the Central Mediterranean Sea using INLA-SPDE modeling approach","authors":"Claudio Rubino, Giada Adelfio, Antonino Abbruzzo, Mar Bosch-Belmar, Manfredi Di Lorenzo, Fabio Fiorentino, Vita Gancitano, Francesco Colloca, Giacomo Milisenda","doi":"10.1007/s10651-024-00609-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-024-00609-7","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change significantly impacts marine ecosystems worldwide, leading to alterations in the composition and structure of marine communities. In this study, we aim to explore the effects of temperature on demersal fish communities in the Central Mediterranean Sea, using data collected from a standardized monitoring program over 23 years. Computationally efficient Bayesian inference is performed using the integrated nested Laplace approximation and the stochastic partial differential equation approach to model the spatial and temporal dynamics of the fish communities. We focused on the mean temperature of the catch (MTC) as an indicator of the response of fish communities to changes in temperature. Our results showed that MTC decreased significantly with increasing depth, indicating that deeper fish communities may be composed of colder affinity species, more vulnerable to future warming. We also found that MTC had a step-wise rather than linear increase with increasing water temperature, suggesting that fish communities may be able to adapt to gradual changes in temperature up to a certain threshold before undergoing abrupt changes. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the non-linear dynamics of fish communities when assessing the impacts of temperature on marine ecosystems and provide important insights into the potential impacts of climate change on demersal fish communities in the Central Mediterranean Sea.","PeriodicalId":50519,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Ecological Statistics","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140585249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Can two-way Foreign Direct Investment promote green technology spillover in Belt and Road countries? An analysis based on the moderator variable of the technology gap 双向外商直接投资能否促进 "一带一路 "国家的绿色技术外溢？基于技术差距调节变量的分析

IF 3.8 4区环境科学与生态学

Environmental and Ecological Statistics Pub Date : 2024-04-02 DOI: 10.1007/s10651-024-00607-9

Liguo Zhang, Suining Gan, Cuiting Jiang, Xiang Cai

{"title":"Can two-way Foreign Direct Investment promote green technology spillover in Belt and Road countries? An analysis based on the moderator variable of the technology gap","authors":"Liguo Zhang, Suining Gan, Cuiting Jiang, Xiang Cai","doi":"10.1007/s10651-024-00607-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-024-00607-9","url":null,"abstract":"The rapid growth of two-way foreign direct investment (FDI) is a striking feature of the Belt and Road (B&R). Can two-way FDI promote green technology spillover (GTS) from the B&R countries? Does the technology gap moderate GTS? And what is the underlying mechanism? To this end, this paper systematically analyses the impact of two-way FDI on GTS based on panel data of 64 B&R countries from 2001 to 2020. Three significant findings were obtained: first, there is a dynamic effect between two-way FDI and GTS, and the technology gap always adjusts this relationship positively. Second, \"Iron needs to be hard.\" Whether \"going out\" or \"coming in,\" GTS is confined to a certain extent. The B&R countries must rely on their capabilities to build higher-quality, independently controllable key technology chains. Finally, the technology effect of two-way FDI always inhibits GTS, and the technology gap between the B&R countries and technology frontier countries is the \"valley of death\" which is difficult to cross but has to cross. These findings have targeted policy implications for the B&R countries to capture better GTS.","PeriodicalId":50519,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Ecological Statistics","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140585387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Calibrated EMOS: applications to temperature and wind speed forecasting 校准 EMOS：应用于温度和风速预报

IF 3.8 4区环境科学与生态学

Environmental and Ecological Statistics Pub Date : 2024-03-25 DOI: 10.1007/s10651-024-00606-w

Carlo Gaetan, Federica Giummolè, Valentina Mameli

{"title":"Calibrated EMOS: applications to temperature and wind speed forecasting","authors":"Carlo Gaetan, Federica Giummolè, Valentina Mameli","doi":"10.1007/s10651-024-00606-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-024-00606-w","url":null,"abstract":"Ensembles of meteorological quantities obtained from numerical models can be used for forecasting weather variables. Unfortunately, such ensembles are often biased and under-dispersed and therefore need to be post-processed. Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is a widely used post-processing technique to reduce bias and dispersion errors of numerical ensembles. In the EMOS approach, a full probabilistic prediction is given in the form of a predictive distribution with parameters depending on the ensemble forecast members. Parameters are then estimated and substituted, thus obtaining a so-called estimative predictive distribution. Nonetheless, estimative distributions may perform poorly in terms of the coverage probability of the corresponding quantiles. This work proposes the use of predictive distributions based on a bootstrap adjustment of estimative predictive distributions, in the context of EMOS models. These distributions are calibrated, which means that the corresponding quantiles provide exact coverage probabilities, in contrast to the estimative distributions. The introduction of the bootstrap calibrated procedure for EMOS is the innovative aspect of this study. The performance of the suggested calibrated EMOS is evaluated in two simulation studies, comparing the different predictive distributions by means of the log-score, the continuous ranked probability score, and the coverage of the corresponding predictive quantiles. The results of these simulation studies show that the proposed calibrated predictive distributions improve estimative solutions, both reducing the mean scores and producing quantiles with exact coverage levels. The good performance of the new calibrated EMOS is further stressed in two real data applications, one about maximum daily temperatures at sites located in the Veneto region (Italy) and the other one about wind speed forecasts at weather stations over Germany.","PeriodicalId":50519,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Ecological Statistics","volume":"71 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140300288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A comprehensive environmental exposure indicator and respiratory health in asthmatic children: a case study 综合环境暴露指标与哮喘儿童的呼吸健康：一项案例研究

IF 3.8 4区环境科学与生态学

Environmental and Ecological Statistics Pub Date : 2024-03-23 DOI: 10.1007/s10651-024-00610-0

Giovanna Cilluffo, Gianluca Sottile, Giuliana Ferrante, Salvatore Fasola, Velia Malizia, Laura Montalbano, Andrea Ranzi, Chiara Badaloni, Giovanni Viegi, Stefania La Grutta

{"title":"A comprehensive environmental exposure indicator and respiratory health in asthmatic children: a case study","authors":"Giovanna Cilluffo, Gianluca Sottile, Giuliana Ferrante, Salvatore Fasola, Velia Malizia, Laura Montalbano, Andrea Ranzi, Chiara Badaloni, Giovanni Viegi, Stefania La Grutta","doi":"10.1007/s10651-024-00610-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-024-00610-0","url":null,"abstract":"The primary goal of asthma management is to achieve and maintain asthma control, which can be influenced by environmental factors. This longitudinal study aimed to construct a comprehensive environmental indicator to predict asthma control in children with asthma in Palermo, Italy. The study included 179 asthmatic children aged 5–16 years. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to measure green cover, and the Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) framework was used to assess land use based on each home address. A land use regression (LUR) model centered on the home address estimated NO2 exposure for each child using GIS. An environmental indicator, including environmental and personal exposure, was formulated using an additive value model approach. A logistic regression mixed model assessed the association between the environmental indicator and uncontrolled asthma. A probability map of uncontrolled asthma was constructed. In conclusion, a comprehensive environmental indicator proved effective in identifying areas at higher and lower risk of uncontrolled asthma.","PeriodicalId":50519,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Ecological Statistics","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140199335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modeling wildland fire burn severity in California using a spatial Super Learner approach 利用空间超级学习者方法模拟加利福尼亚州野地火灾燃烧严重程度

IF 3.8 4区环境科学与生态学

Environmental and Ecological Statistics Pub Date : 2024-03-22 DOI: 10.1007/s10651-024-00601-1

Nicholas Simafranca, Bryant Willoughby, Erin O’Neil, Sophie Farr, Brian J. Reich, Naomi Giertych, Margaret C. Johnson, Madeleine A. Pascolini-Campbell

{"title":"Modeling wildland fire burn severity in California using a spatial Super Learner approach","authors":"Nicholas Simafranca, Bryant Willoughby, Erin O’Neil, Sophie Farr, Brian J. Reich, Naomi Giertych, Margaret C. Johnson, Madeleine A. Pascolini-Campbell","doi":"10.1007/s10651-024-00601-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-024-00601-1","url":null,"abstract":"Given the increasing prevalence of wildland fires in the Western US, there is a critical need to develop tools to understand and accurately predict burn severity. We develop a novel machine learning model to predict post-fire burn severity using pre-fire remotely sensed data. Hydrological, ecological, and topographical variables collected from four regions of California — the site of the Kincade fire (2019), the CZU Lightning Complex fire (2020), the Windy fire (2021), and the KNP Fire (2021) — are used as predictors of the differenced normalized burn ratio. We hypothesize that a Super Learner (SL) algorithm that accounts for spatial autocorrelation using Vecchia’s Gaussian approximation will accurately model burn severity. We use a cross-validation study to show that the spatial SL model can predict burn severity with reasonable classification accuracy, including high burn severity events. After fitting and verifying the performance of the SL model, we use interpretable machine learning tools to determine the main drivers of severe burn damage, including greenness, elevation, and fire weather variables. These findings provide actionable insights that enable communities to strategize interventions, such as early fire detection systems, pre-fire season vegetation clearing activities, and resource allocation during emergency responses. When implemented, this model has the potential to minimize the loss of human life, property, resources, and ecosystems in California.","PeriodicalId":50519,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Ecological Statistics","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140199226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

On the effect of confounding in linear regression models: an approach based on the theory of quadratic forms 关于线性回归模型中混杂因素的影响：基于二次形式理论的方法

IF 3.8 4区环境科学与生态学

Environmental and Ecological Statistics Pub Date : 2024-03-22 DOI: 10.1007/s10651-024-00604-y

Martina Narcisi, Fedele Greco, Carlo Trivisano

{"title":"On the effect of confounding in linear regression models: an approach based on the theory of quadratic forms","authors":"Martina Narcisi, Fedele Greco, Carlo Trivisano","doi":"10.1007/s10651-024-00604-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-024-00604-y","url":null,"abstract":"In the last two decades, significant research efforts have been dedicated to addressing the issue of spatial confounding in linear regression models. Confounding occurs when the relationship between the covariate and the response variable is influenced by an unmeasured confounder associated with both. This results in biased estimators for the regression coefficients reduced efficiency, and misleading interpretations. This article aims to understand how confounding relates to the parameters of the data generating process. The sampling properties of the regression coefficient estimator are derived as ratios of dependent quadratic forms in Gaussian random variables: this allows us to obtain exact expressions for the marginal bias and variance of the estimator, that were not obtained in previous studies. Moreover, we provide an approximate measure of the marginal bias that gives insights of the main determinants of bias. Applications in the framework of geostatistical and areal data modeling are presented. Particular attention is devoted to the difference between smoothness and variability of random vectors involved in the data generating process. Results indicate that marginal covariance between the covariate and the confounder, along with marginal variability of the covariate, play the most relevant role in determining the magnitude of confounding, as measured by the bias.","PeriodicalId":50519,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Ecological Statistics","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140199206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Sequential hypothesis testing for selecting the number of changepoints in segmented regression models 在分段回归模型中选择变化点数量的顺序假设检验

IF 3.8 4区环境科学与生态学

Environmental and Ecological Statistics Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1007/s10651-024-00605-x

引用次数: 0