International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis最新文献

{"title":"Impacts of macroeconomic factors during COVID-19 pandemic on property loan impairments and overhang: case study of Malaysia","authors":"Woei-Chyi Chai, K. Tham, Chin Tiong Cheng, Kim Wing Chong, Kai Yun Yeoh","doi":"10.1108/ijhma-04-2024-0056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-04-2024-0056","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted the global economy, disrupting supply chains, causing job losses and altering consumer demand. In Malaysia, the real estate sector has been notably affected, with increased property impairments and overhang due to unprecedented uncertainty. Understanding these effects is crucial for policymakers and investors to prevent real estate and banking crises. This study aims to analyse the relationships between macroeconomic factors during the pandemic on property impairments and overhang, providing insights for maintaining macroeconomic stability. The findings will inform strategies for mitigating economic shocks, identifying opportunities, and guiding real estate policies in Malaysia and potentially globally.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This research article uses a time series ARDL regression analysis to examine pivotal macroeconomic factors including income, housing process, interest rates and unemployment on property loan impairments and property supply overhang in Malaysia. ARDL is effective to measure and analyse time series data, especially to understand the lagged impacts of macroeconomic factors. This can be seen by various economists in analysing macroeconomic factors affecting non-performing loans or the real estate finance using regression analyses both in Malaysia and other regions. The observations are gathered before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, spanning a five-year period with monthly frequency from 2018 to 2022.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The study emphasizes the critical importance of effectively managing unemployment and implementing policy interventions, such as moratoriums, to stabilize the economy and reduce the risk of loan impairments during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, this study highlights a significant inverse relationship between income per capita and loan impairments, underscoring the necessity for policies that promote economic growth and income equality. Initiatives targeting job creation, education and skills development can elevate income levels, thereby decreasing loan impairments. Lower lending interest rates during the pandemic also help mitigate the risk of loan impairments by facilitating borrowing, stimulating economic activity and enhancing financial well-being. Furthermore, the study suggests that while lower interest rates incentivize property developers and investors, understanding the intricate interaction between housing prices and supply is crucial for policymakers and stakeholders to effectively manage the housing market and ensure adequate housing supply, especially during crises.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000This paper provides insight for policymakers, regulators, investors and property consultants into the dynamic effects of key macroeconomic factors amidst a global recession in how they impact the real estate market with regards specifically to all types of property loan impairments and property supply overhang. The observat","PeriodicalId":504638,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141919321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of macroeconomic factors during COVID-19 pandemic on property loan impairments and overhang: case study of Malaysia","authors":"Woei-Chyi Chai, K. Tham, Chin Tiong Cheng, Kim Wing Chong, Kai Yun Yeoh","doi":"10.1108/ijhma-04-2024-0056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-04-2024-0056","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted the global economy, disrupting supply chains, causing job losses and altering consumer demand. In Malaysia, the real estate sector has been notably affected, with increased property impairments and overhang due to unprecedented uncertainty. Understanding these effects is crucial for policymakers and investors to prevent real estate and banking crises. This study aims to analyse the relationships between macroeconomic factors during the pandemic on property impairments and overhang, providing insights for maintaining macroeconomic stability. The findings will inform strategies for mitigating economic shocks, identifying opportunities, and guiding real estate policies in Malaysia and potentially globally.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This research article uses a time series ARDL regression analysis to examine pivotal macroeconomic factors including income, housing process, interest rates and unemployment on property loan impairments and property supply overhang in Malaysia. ARDL is effective to measure and analyse time series data, especially to understand the lagged impacts of macroeconomic factors. This can be seen by various economists in analysing macroeconomic factors affecting non-performing loans or the real estate finance using regression analyses both in Malaysia and other regions. The observations are gathered before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, spanning a five-year period with monthly frequency from 2018 to 2022.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The study emphasizes the critical importance of effectively managing unemployment and implementing policy interventions, such as moratoriums, to stabilize the economy and reduce the risk of loan impairments during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, this study highlights a significant inverse relationship between income per capita and loan impairments, underscoring the necessity for policies that promote economic growth and income equality. Initiatives targeting job creation, education and skills development can elevate income levels, thereby decreasing loan impairments. Lower lending interest rates during the pandemic also help mitigate the risk of loan impairments by facilitating borrowing, stimulating economic activity and enhancing financial well-being. Furthermore, the study suggests that while lower interest rates incentivize property developers and investors, understanding the intricate interaction between housing prices and supply is crucial for policymakers and stakeholders to effectively manage the housing market and ensure adequate housing supply, especially during crises.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000This paper provides insight for policymakers, regulators, investors and property consultants into the dynamic effects of key macroeconomic factors amidst a global recession in how they impact the real estate market with regards specifically to all types of property loan impairments and property supply overhang. The observat","PeriodicalId":504638,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141919717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysing the home buyers’ purchasing behaviour in Bengaluru during the post-COVID-19 pandemic era through structural equation modelling","authors":"Srinivasa Reddy N.S., Sujata Khandai","doi":"10.1108/ijhma-05-2024-0070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-05-2024-0070","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000Housing is one of the basic necessities of humankind for survival and purchasing a home is often a substantial milestone. Individuals exhibit complex behaviour influenced by various factors while making decisions related to the purchase of residential properties. While most of the earlier studies have focused on understanding the purchasing behaviour of home buyers’ in developed countries, the research is limited on this topic in developing countries such as India. The booming information technology industry has rapidly increased the demand for residential properties among the migrant population in Bengaluru, India’s largest technology hub. Real estate developers strive to meet the requirements of prospective customers through innovative ways but face challenges in a competitive market.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000It is essential to understand the factors influencing home buyers’ purchase attitudes for increasing property sales. However, a lack of research on this subject is identified in the emerging city of Bengaluru. This study aims to analyse the determinants of home buying decisions for potential investors in Bengaluru through structural equation modelling to provide insights for the real estate industry to construct houses as per their customers’ needs.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000It was found that housing amenities, financial aspects, location conveniences and marketing services significantly influenced home buyers’ purchase decisions, whereas housing features do not.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The findings of this study offer valuable insights for governmental bodies to implement appropriate policies and for builders to design properties with features that cater to the target population, thereby promoting sustainable growth in the real estate industry.\u0000","PeriodicalId":504638,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141927256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Housing finance inaccessibility for Saudi Arabia’s low-income employees: are housing-related sustainable development goals 2030 under threat?","authors":"Raed Khamis Alharbi","doi":"10.1108/ijhma-05-2024-0071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-05-2024-0071","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose\u0000In developing countries, including achieving Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s (KSA) Vision 2030, housing loans for low-income employees are challenging and may thwart housing-related sustainable development goals (SDGs). Studies investigating housing finance inaccessibility for KSA Vision 2030 low-income earners and its impact on achieving housing-related SDGs are scarce. Hence, this study aims to investigate KSA housing financial inaccessibility and its effect on housing-related SDGs. Also, it offered suggestions for achieving housing provision in Vision 2030 and, by extension, improving housing-related SDGs.\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The study adopted a virtual interview approach and covered Alqassim, Riyadh and Medina. The researcher engaged 24 participants who were knowledgeable about KSA’s housing finance and SDGs. They include selected low-income earners, academicians, financial operators and government ministries/departments/agencies. The study manually analysed the collated data through a thematic approach and presented the main themes.\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Findings reveal that KSA’s low-income earners’ housing finance inaccessibility threatens Vision 2030 and housing-related SDGs. Inadequate funding of the Real Estate Development Fund, inability to make down payment, absence of collateral, insufficient household income and failure to recover the loan and associated charges from the auction were perceived major issues contributing to low-income earners’ house-loan rejection and recommended measures to improve achieving housing-related SDGs.\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The study investigated the factors contributing to low-income earners’ housing loan rejection and its impact on achieving KSA’s Vision 2030 and housing-related SDGs from the participants’ perspective. The findings reveal that low-income earners’ housing finance accessibility has been compounded by the slow recovery from the post-COVID-19 pandemic.\u0000","PeriodicalId":504638,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141795853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A review on American senior housing and financing decisions","authors":"Wei He, Wenqing Gao, Shaomeng Jia","doi":"10.1108/ijhma-04-2024-0057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-04-2024-0057","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose\u0000The world population is getting older and housing decisions matter to the security of retirement life and well-being. However, senior housing and financing decisions are largely overlooked in the literature. This study aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the senior housing and financing decisions in the USA.\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Using 2021 American Housing Survey data and ordinary least squares estimates, this paper studies senior housing and financing decisions in the 15 most populous US metropolitan areas. Multiple regressions are used to analyze the whole sample as well as various subsamples.\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000This paper finds strong evidence that seniors are more likely to own a house with a higher market value compared with nonseniors. More specifically, although race and gender do not matter in this relationship, it is less pronounced among those with higher education. Also, seniors, especially white senior homeowners, are more likely to have a lower mortgage debt burden due to a higher upfront down payment than nonseniors. Last, seniors are more likely to refinance their homes and receive cash than nonseniors.\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000Constrained by the data limitations, this study specifically focuses on seniors’ housing and mortgage decisions. Future research could involve exploring seniors’ mortgage decisions by considering factors such as mortgage loan terms, borrower credentials and the evolving landscape of the senior housing market, among other aspects.\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The findings would help policymakers and contractors in the construction industry better understand the uniqueness of challenges in the senior housing market and develop effective housing policies and programs that cater to the needs of the elderly. A comprehensive understanding of the senior housing market would also help seniors make informed purchase and financing decisions.\u0000\u0000Social implications\u0000The authors propose providing financial education to the elderly, particularly those of disadvantaged status, to improve their expertise and bargaining skills in the mortgage loan application process.\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This paper contributes to understanding the dynamic senior housing market, which encounters challenges and opportunities associated with the aging population. The study fills the gap of limited research regarding seniors’ housing decision and their financing choices in the USA and would help policymakers and contractors in the construction industry develop effective housing policies and programs that cater to the needs of the elderly.\u0000","PeriodicalId":504638,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141795802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Homeownership through asnaf home financing in Malaysia: an empirical investigation","authors":"Hanudin Amin","doi":"10.1108/ijhma-05-2024-0066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-05-2024-0066","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose\u0000The purpose of this study is to examine asnafs’ acceptance of home financing in Malaysia.\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This work developed and introduced the maqasid theory of consumer behaviour (MTCB) to examine the effects of educational programmes, mortgage welfare, consumer justice and Islamic debt policy on receptiveness. Data analysis involving 733 respondents was conducted using partial least squares (PLS), where SmartPLS4.0 software comes into play.\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000In the core model, the effects of the MTCB’s variables helped shape the development of asnaf home financing acceptance.\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000This study was based on quantitative data and geographical constraints.\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The findings provide valuable inputs for the Joint Committee Body (JCB), combining Islamic banks and State Islamic Religious Councils to develop action plans for improving the facility offered.\u0000\u0000Social implications\u0000This work functioned as a social benchmark for improving Islamic home financing that includes asnafs’ homeownership.\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000A new conceptual framework for asnaf home financing drawn from MTCB is developed in the context of asnafs’ homeownership.\u0000","PeriodicalId":504638,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141796505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Housing search activity and quantiles-based predictability of housing price movements in the USA","authors":"Rangan Gupta, Damien Moodley","doi":"10.1108/ijhma-12-2023-0166","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-12-2023-0166","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose\u0000Recent evidence from a linear econometric framework infers that housing search activity, captured from Google Trends data, can predict housing returns for the USA at a national and regional (metropolitan statistical area [MSA]) level. Based on search theory, the authors, however, postulate that search activity can also predict housing returns volatility. This study aims to explore the possibility of using online search activity to predict both housing returns and volatility.\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Using a k-th order non-parametric causality-in-quantiles test allows us to test for predictability in a robust manner over the entire conditional distribution of both housing price returns and its volatility (i.e. squared returns) by controlling for nonlinearity and structural breaks that exist in the data.\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The analysis over the monthly period of 2004:01 to 2021:01 produces results indicating that while housing search activity continues to predict aggregate US house price returns, barring the extreme ends of the conditional distribution, volatility is relatively strongly predicted over the entire quantile range considered. The results carry over to an alternative (the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-based) metric of volatility, higher (weekly)-frequency data (over January 2018–March 2021) and to over 84% of the 77 MSAs considered.\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study regarding predictability of overall and regional US housing price returns and volatility using search activity, based on a non-parametric higher-order causality-in-quantiles framework, which is insightful to investors, policymakers and academics.\u0000","PeriodicalId":504638,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141099451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating rational and irrational factors towards explicating investment satisfaction and reinvestment intentions: a study in the context of direct residential real estate","authors":"Sharmila Devi R., Swamy Perumandla, S. Bhattacharyya","doi":"10.1108/ijhma-01-2024-0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-01-2024-0004","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this study is to understand the investment decision-making of real estate investors in housing, highlighting the interplay between rational and irrational factors. In this study, investment satisfaction was a mediator, while reinvestment intention was the dependent variable.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000A quantitative, cross-sectional and descriptive research design was used, gathering data from a sample of 550 residential real estate investors using a multi-stage stratified sampling technique. The partial least squares structural equation modelling disjoint two-stage approach was used for data analysis. This methodological approach allowed for an in-depth examination of the relationship between rational factors such as location, profitability, financial viability, environmental considerations and legal aspects alongside irrational factors including various biases like overconfidence, availability, anchoring, representative and information cascade.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000This study strongly supports the adaptive market hypothesis, showing that residential real estate investor behaviour is dynamic, combining rational and irrational elements influenced by evolutionary psychology. This challenges traditional views of investment decision-making. It also establishes that behavioural biases, key to adapting to market changes, are crucial in shaping residential property market efficiency. Essentially, the study uncovers an evolving real estate investment landscape driven by evolutionary behavioural patterns.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000This research redefines rationality in behavioural finance by illustrating psychological biases as adaptive tools within the residential property market, urging a holistic integration of these insights into real estate investment theories.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The study reshapes property valuation models by blending economic and psychological perspectives, enhancing investor understanding and market efficiency. These interdisciplinary insights offer a blueprint for improved regulatory policies, investor education and targeted real estate marketing, fundamentally transforming the sector’s dynamics.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000Unlike previous studies, the research uniquely integrates human cognitive behaviour theories from psychology and business studies, specifically in the context of residential property investment. This interdisciplinary approach offers a more nuanced understanding of investor behaviour.\u0000","PeriodicalId":504638,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140366737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Market approach to provision of housing to low-income households in urban Malawi: a panacea or further dispossession?","authors":"S. Zuka","doi":"10.1108/ijhma-11-2023-0161","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-11-2023-0161","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of market-based approach to provision of housing to low-income households in urban Malawi.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study was conducted in Blantyre, Malawi, between 2019 and 2022 and used both quantitative (household survey) and qualitative (in-depth interviews and document study) methods of data collection. Interviews were conducted with key players and investors in the housing sector. Household survey data were analyzed through descriptive statistics, which allowed the generation of descriptive housing valuables, whereas qualitative data were analyzed through content analysis.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000This paper demonstrates that, rather than ameliorating the housing problems facing low-income households, the market approach to provision of housing in Malawi has worsened the housing situation in the country. This is so because the market approach to the provision of housing in Malawi is not only enforcing the logic of capitalistic accumulation in the housing sector but also supporting mechanisms of exclusion based on economic stratification within the community.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000Completeness of data over time as there is no market data bank available in the country.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The findings from this study suggest that some degree of state intervention in addressing the housing problem in Malawi is required.\u0000\u0000\u0000Social implications\u0000The study findings suggest that a market approach to the provision of housing can increase social inequality as low-income households face challenges in accessing housing.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000There is a paucity of research on the effects of the market approach on the provision of affordable housing to low-income households in Malawi. This paper assesses this important policy gap and provides significant policy directions.\u0000","PeriodicalId":504638,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140080222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparative analysis of different approaches to the Ukrainian residential property market evolution modelling and its forecast for the years 2019–2024","authors":"V. Yakubovsky, Kateryna Zhuk","doi":"10.1108/ijhma-11-2023-0160","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-11-2023-0160","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of various approaches to the residential property market evolution modelling and to examine the macroeconomic fundamentals that have shaped this market development in Ukraine in recent years.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The study uses a comprehensive data set encompassing relevant macroeconomic indicators and historical apartment prices. Multifactor linear regression (MLR) and ridge regression (RR) models are constructed to identify the impact of multiple predictors on apartment prices. Additionally, the ARIMAX model integrates time series analysis and external factors to enhance modelling and forecasting accuracy.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The investigation reveals that MLR and RR yield accurate predictions by considering a range of influential variables. The hybrid ARIMAX model further enhances predictive performance by fusing external indicators with time series analysis. These findings underscore the effectiveness of a multidimensional approach in capturing the complexity of housing price dynamics.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This research contributes to the real estate modelling and forecasting literature by providing an analysis of multiple linear regression, RR and ARIMAX models within the specific context of property price prediction in the turbulent Ukrainian real estate market. This comprehensive analysis not only offers insights into the performance of these methodologies but also explores their adaptability and robustness in a market characterized by evolving dynamics, including the significant influence of external geopolitical factors.\u0000","PeriodicalId":504638,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140426939","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}