Dean Jolliffe ⓡ, Daniel Gerszon Mahler ⓡ, Christoph Lakner ⓡ, Aziz Atamanov ⓡ, Samuel Kofi Tetteh-Baah
{"title":"Poverty and Prices: Assessing the Impact of the 2017 PPPs on the International Poverty Line and Global Poverty","authors":"Dean Jolliffe ⓡ, Daniel Gerszon Mahler ⓡ, Christoph Lakner ⓡ, Aziz Atamanov ⓡ, Samuel Kofi Tetteh-Baah","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhae035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhae035","url":null,"abstract":"Purchasing power parities (PPPs) are used to estimate the international poverty line (IPL) in a common currency and account for relative price differences across countries when measuring global poverty. This paper assesses the impact of the 2017 PPPs on the nominal value of the IPL and global poverty. Updating the $1.90 IPL in 2011 PPP dollars to 2017 PPP dollars results in an IPL of $2.15—a finding that is robust to various methods. Based on an updated IPL of $2.15, the global extreme poverty rate in 2017 falls from the previously estimated 9.3 to 9.1 percent, reducing the count of people who are poor by 15 million. This is a modest change compared with previous updates of PPP data. The paper also assesses the methodological stability between the 2011 and 2017 PPPs, scrutinizes large changes at the country level, and updates alternative, complementary poverty lines with the 2017 PPPs.","PeriodicalId":501583,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142254172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"International Commodity Prices Transmission to Consumer Prices in Africa","authors":"Thibault Lemaire, Paul Vertier","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhae034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhae034","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, global commodity prices pass-through to consumer prices are estimated in Africa. The estimation sample includes monthly data for 48 countries over the period 2002m02–2021m04. Sixteen commodity prices are considered separately, rather than aggregate indices that use weights unrepresentative of consumption in Africa. Using local projections in a panel data set, the maximum estimated pass-through is of 23 percent, and the long-run pass-through is of about 20 percent, higher than usually found in the literature. Country-specific regressions are also considered: in the latter, the estimated pass-through is lower for countries with a higher GDP per capita, a lower share of food and energy in the consumption basket, a better quality of transport infrastructure, and a higher openness to trade. Finally, commodity-specific pass-throughs are correlated with the share of corresponding goods in the consumer basket and with the import dependency ratio for this commodity.","PeriodicalId":501583,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142269106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does the Source of FDI Matter? The Case of Tax Havens","authors":"Solomiya Shpak","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhae036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhae036","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates the benefits of FDI for firm performance, differentiating source countries between tax havens and non–tax havens. Using longitudinal data on more than 300,000 initially domestic firms in Ukraine between 1999 and 2013 and employing propensity score matching and panel data methods, this study finds that firms acquired by non–tax haven foreign investors experience substantial increases in employment, productivity, exports, and wages, but the gains are much lower and shorter-lived for firms receiving FDI from tax havens. These findings, based on econometric analysis of nearly the universe of Ukrainian businesses, are consistent with macroeconomic studies and anecdotal evidence that much of the tax-haven FDI in Ukraine actually represents domestic ownership channeled through offshore companies. This “round-trip FDI” results in negligible effects on firm performance and, at a macro level, it overstates the amount of genuine FDI flows into Ukraine.","PeriodicalId":501583,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142210864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Irene Brambilla, Andrés César, Guillermo Falcone, Guido Porto
{"title":"Organizational Hierarchies and Export Destinations","authors":"Irene Brambilla, Andrés César, Guillermo Falcone, Guido Porto","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhae032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhae032","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a new link relating export destinations and the organization of the firm: the production of higher-quality varieties exported to rich destinations induces firms to restructure their production processes, becoming organizationally more complex. A theoretical model with these features is presented and then the mechanisms are explored using a panel of Chilean manufacturing plants. The identification strategy of the paper relies on falling tariffs on Chilean products across destinations caused by the signature of Free Trade Agreements with high-income countries (the European Union, the United States, and South Korea). Results show that Chilean plants that were induced by these tariff reductions to start exporting to high-income destinations increased the number of hierarchical layers and upgraded the quality of their products. This involved the addition of qualified supervisors that facilitated the provision of higher product quality. These effects took place at new high-income exporting firms.","PeriodicalId":501583,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142210841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Xinshen Diao, Mia Ellis, Margaret McMillan, Dani Rodrik
{"title":"Africa's Manufacturing Puzzle: Evidence from Tanzanian and Ethiopian Firms","authors":"Xinshen Diao, Mia Ellis, Margaret McMillan, Dani Rodrik","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhae029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhae029","url":null,"abstract":"Recent growth accelerations in Africa are characterized by declining shares of the labor force employed in agriculture, increasing labor productivity in agriculture, and declining labor productivity in modern sectors such as manufacturing. To shed light on this puzzle, this study disaggregates firms in the manufacturing sector by average size, using two newly created firm-level panels covering Tanzania (2008–2016) and Ethiopia (1996–2017). The analysis identifies a dichotomy between larger firms with superior productivity performance that do not expand employment and small firms that absorb employment but do not experience much productivity growth. Large, more productive firms use highly capital-intensive techniques, in line with global technology trends but significantly greater than what would be expected based on these countries’ income levels or relative factor endowments.","PeriodicalId":501583,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141946317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"(Joint) Bank Savings, Female Empowerment, and Child Labor in Rural Ethiopia","authors":"Jose Galdo","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhae024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhae024","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines whether the random allocation of single and joint savings accounts to cash crop farmers in rural Ethiopia is associated with increased savings and changes in decision-making authority and control over resources that could ultimately affect child labor and schooling resource allocations. Consistent with posited channels of intrahousehold bargaining models, women from households assigned to the joint saving treatment group show significant gains in autonomy and control of savings resources, broader financial empowerment, and increased labor participation. Positive effects on school participation and attendance are reported for girls, although point estimates are measured imprecisely. In a setting where schooling and child labor are not mutually exclusive, children work more when joint deposit accounts are available. In the absence of impacts on household income, this increase in child labor is explained by complementarities between adult farm labor and child labor in the household production function, which is reinforced by lumpy investments in labor-intensive agricultural inputs that likely increased the opportunity costs of children's time.","PeriodicalId":501583,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141197272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Food Transfers, Cash Transfers, Behavior Change Communication and Child Nutrition: Evidence from Bangladesh","authors":"Akhter Ahmed, John Hoddinott, Shalini Roy","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhae023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhae023","url":null,"abstract":"This paper reports the results of two 2-year randomized control trials in two poor rural areas of Bangladesh. Treatment arms included monthly cash transfers, monthly food rations of equivalent value to the cash transfers, and mixed monthly cash and food transfers, and treatment arms—one with food and one with cash—that combined transfers with nutrition-behavior communication change (BCC). This design enables a comparison of transfer modalities within the same experiment. Intent-to-treat estimators show that cash transfers and nutrition BCC had a large impact on nutritional status, a 0.25 standard deviation increase in height-for-age z-scores and a 7.8 percentage point decrease in stunting prevalence. No other treatment arm affected anthropometric outcomes. Mechanisms underlying these impacts are explored. Improved diets—particularly increased intake of animal source foods in the cash plus BCC arm—are consistent with the improvements observed in this paper.","PeriodicalId":501583,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141147939","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Gendered Impact of Digital Jobs Platforms: Experimental Evidence from Mozambique","authors":"Sam Jones, Kunal Sen","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhae019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhae019","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the impact of digital labor-market platforms on jobs outcomes using a randomized encouragement design embedded in a longitudinal survey of Mozambican technical-vocational college graduates. We differentiate between platforms targeting formal jobs, where jobseekers direct their search, and informal tasks, where clients seek workers. Our analysis reveals statistically insignificant intent-to-treat and complier-average treatment effects for headline employment outcomes in the full sample. Notably, while the average male moderately benefits from platform usage, women do not. Rather, they are less responsive to the encouragement nudge, and female treatment compliers report higher reservation wages and lower job search. This suggests digital platforms can inadvertently perpetuate gender disparities in labor markets.","PeriodicalId":501583,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140936305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Better Roads, Better Off? Evidence on Upgrading Roads in Tanzania","authors":"Christelle Dumas, Ximena Játiva","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhae017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhae017","url":null,"abstract":"Spatial isolation is considered to be one of the main determinants of poverty. Therefore, many transport investments are undertaken with the stated objective of poverty reduction. This paper evaluates the effect of a Tanzanian program that rehabilitated 2,500 km of major roads on rural livelihoods. The analysis uses a large set of variables describing household behavior in order to provide a complete picture of the adjustments. The identification consists of combining a household fixed effects strategy with propensity score matching. Some damaging effects of the program are found on the rural population in the two years following the intervention: the price of rice decreases; households reallocate labor away from agriculture and provide more wage work, but the increase in wage income does not compensate for the loss in agricultural income. Nor do households seem to be benefiting from the fall in the price of rice at consumption level. These results are consistent with rural households facing increased competition due to reduced transportation costs.","PeriodicalId":501583,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140616065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Impact of Weather Shocks on Violent and Property Crimes in Jamaica","authors":"Nicholas A. Wright, Aubrey M. Stewart","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhae016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhae016","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Developing countries face the largest exposure to the negative effects of climate change. However, as temperature and rainfall patterns change, we have a limited understanding of their impact on these countries and the mitigation strategies that may be needed. In this paper, we utilize administrative panel data to examine the impact of weather shocks on violent and property crimes in Jamaica. We find strong evidence that a one-standard-deviation increase in the daily temperature (2○C) increases violent crime by 3.67 percent, due to an increase in the number of murders (3.44 percent), shootings (7.53 percent), and cases of aggravated assault (6 percent). However, our results suggest that temperature changes have no statistical impact on property crime. In addition, we find that a one-standard-deviation increase in rainfall (2 mm) reduces crimes such as shootings (1.53 percent), break-ins (2.27 percent), and larcenies (3.85 percent), but it has a minimal impact on other categories of crime.","PeriodicalId":501583,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"52 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140723742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}