The Impact of Weather Shocks on Violent and Property Crimes in Jamaica

Abstract

Developing countries face the largest exposure to the negative effects of climate change. However, as temperature and rainfall patterns change, we have a limited understanding of their impact on these countries and the mitigation strategies that may be needed. In this paper, we utilize administrative panel data to examine the impact of weather shocks on violent and property crimes in Jamaica. We find strong evidence that a one-standard-deviation increase in the daily temperature (2○C) increases violent crime by 3.67 percent, due to an increase in the number of murders (3.44 percent), shootings (7.53 percent), and cases of aggravated assault (6 percent). However, our results suggest that temperature changes have no statistical impact on property crime. In addition, we find that a one-standard-deviation increase in rainfall (2 mm) reduces crimes such as shootings (1.53 percent), break-ins (2.27 percent), and larcenies (3.85 percent), but it has a minimal impact on other categories of crime.