Journal of Mathematical Psychology最新文献

{"title":"Expected exponential discounting in inter-temporal decision making","authors":"Tom H. Rosenström ,&nbsp;Alasdair I. Houston","doi":"10.1016/j.jmp.2025.102927","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmp.2025.102927","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We present a novel interpretation of delay discounting – a theoretical mechanism by which decision-makers discount the current value of reward if it is obtained at a future time rather than immediately. The theory proposes that decision-makers rationally account for the natural phenomenon of compounded interests (use exponential discounting) but need to take an average or expected value over some uncertainty distribution for the compound interest rate. Hence, the name Expected Exponential Discounting (EED) theory of inter-temporal choice. We show that EED provides a mechanism that unifies multiple empirically discovered descriptive discounting functions and fits to key qualitative findings about delay discounting in humans under non-sequential contexts, such as for hypothetical questions about delayed rewards. The general, falsifiable and comparatively minimal EED theory provides a good sanity check for more complex accounts of delay discounting, but also supports the derivation of new empirical predictions and reference points.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50140,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Psychology","volume":"126 ","pages":"Article 102927"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144169561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Honey, I shrunk the irrelevant effects! Simple and flexible approximate Bayesian regularization","authors":"Diana Karimova ,&nbsp;Sara van Erp ,&nbsp;Roger Th.A.J. Leenders ,&nbsp;Joris Mulder","doi":"10.1016/j.jmp.2025.102925","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmp.2025.102925","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the social and behavioral sciences and related fields, statistical models are becoming increasingly complex with more parameters to explain intricate dependency structures among larger sets of variables. Regularization techniques, like penalized regression, help identify key parameters by shrinking negligible effects to zero, resulting in parsimonious solutions with strong predictive performance. This paper introduces a simple and flexible approximate Bayesian regularization (ABR) procedure, combining a Gaussian approximation of the likelihood with a Bayesian shrinkage prior to obtain a regularized posterior. Parsimonious (interpretable) solutions are obtained by taking the posterior modes. Parameter uncertainty is quantified using the full posterior. Implemented in the R package <span>shrinkem</span>, the method is evaluated in synthetic and empirical applications. Its flexibility is demonstrated across various models, including linear regression, relational event models, mediation analysis, factor analysis, and Gaussian graphical models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50140,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Psychology","volume":"126 ","pages":"Article 102925"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144169562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A concise mathematical description of active inference in discrete time","authors":"Jesse van Oostrum ,&nbsp;Carlotta Langer ,&nbsp;Nihat Ay","doi":"10.1016/j.jmp.2025.102921","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmp.2025.102921","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper we present a concise mathematical description of active inference in discrete time. The main part of the paper serves as a basic introduction to the topic, including a detailed example of the action selection mechanism. The appendix discusses the more subtle mathematical details, targeting readers who have already studied the active inference literature but struggle to make sense of the mathematical details and derivations. Throughout, we emphasize precise and standard mathematical notation, ensuring consistency with existing texts and linking all equations to widely used references on active inference. Additionally, we provide Python code that implements the action selection and learning mechanisms described in this paper and is compatible with <span>pymdp</span> environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50140,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Psychology","volume":"125 ","pages":"Article 102921"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Toward a unified perspective on assessment models, part II: Dichotomous latent variables","authors":"Stefano Noventa ,&nbsp;Jürgen Heller ,&nbsp;Sangbeak Ye ,&nbsp;Augustin Kelava","doi":"10.1016/j.jmp.2025.102926","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmp.2025.102926","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the past years, several theories for assessment have been developed within the fields of Psychometrics and Mathematical Psychology. The most notable are Item Response Theory (IRT), Cognitive Diagnostic Assessment (CDA), and Knowledge Structure Theory (KST). In spite of their common goals, these theories have been developed largely independently, focusing on slightly different aspects. In Part I of this three-part work, a general framework was introduced with the aim of achieving a unified perspective. The framework consists of two primitives (structure and process) and two operations (factorization and reparametrization) that allow to derive the models of these theories and systematize them within a general taxonomy. In this second contribution, the framework introduced in Part I is used to derive both KST and CDA models based on dichotomous latent variables, thus achieving a two-fold result: On the one hand, it settles the relation between the frameworks; On the other hand, it provides a simultaneous generalization of both frameworks, thus providing the foundations for the analysis of more general models and situations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50140,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Psychology","volume":"125 ","pages":"Article 102926"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144116015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Secure and perfect maximality","authors":"Federico Quartieri","doi":"10.1016/j.jmp.2025.102922","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmp.2025.102922","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper introduces a refinement of maximality, called secure maximality, and a refinement of secure maximality, called perfect maximality. The effectivity of these refinements and the connection with other relevant optimality notions are investigated. Furthermore, necessary and sufficient conditions are provided for the secure maximality of all maximals and for the perfect maximality of all maximals as well as for the perfect maximality of all secure maximals. Several sufficient conditions for (as well as two characterizations of) the existence of secure and perfect maximals are established. The precise structure of the entire sets of secure and perfect maximals is examined for some specific classes of relations like interval orders that admit a certain type of representability by means of two real-valued functions, relations induced by cones and relations that admit linear multi-utility representations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50140,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Psychology","volume":"125 ","pages":"Article 102922"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143891925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using systems factorial technology for global model analysis of ACT-R’s core architectural assumptions","authors":"Christopher R. Fisher ,&nbsp;Joseph W. Houpt ,&nbsp;Othalia Larue ,&nbsp;Kevin Schmidt","doi":"10.1016/j.jmp.2025.102924","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmp.2025.102924","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cognitive architectures (CAs) are unified theories of cognition which describe invariant properties in the structure and function of cognition, including how sub-systems (e.g., memory, vision) interact as a coherent system. One problem stemming from the size and flexibility of CAs is deriving critical tests of their core architectural assumptions. To address this issue, we combine systems factorial technology (SFT) and global model analysis (GMA) into a unified framework called SFT-GMA. In the framework, the prediction space is defined in terms of qualitative classes of SFT models, and GMA identifies constraints on this space based on core architectural assumptions. Critical tests are then derived and tested with SFT. Our application of SFT-GMA to ACT-R revealed two key insights: (1) we identified critical tests despite many degrees of freedom in model specification, and (2) ACT-R requires serial processing of perceptual stimuli under most conditions. These processing constraints on perception are at odds with data reported in several published experiments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50140,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Psychology","volume":"125 ","pages":"Article 102924"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143929582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Coupling quantum-like cognition with the neuronal networks within generalized probability theory","authors":"Andrei Khrennikov ,&nbsp;Masanao Ozawa ,&nbsp;Felix Benninger ,&nbsp;Oded Shor","doi":"10.1016/j.jmp.2025.102923","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmp.2025.102923","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The past few years have seen a surge in the application of quantum-like (QL) modeling in fields such as cognition, psychology, and decision-making. Despite the success of this approach in explaining various psychological phenomena, there remains a potential dissatisfaction due to its lack of clear connection to neurophysiological processes in the brain. Currently, it remains a phenomenological approach. In this paper, we develop a QL representation of networks of communicating neurons. This representation is not based on standard quantum theory but on <em>generalized probability theory</em> (GPT), with a focus on the operational measurement framework (see section 2.1 for comparison of classical, quantum, and generalized probability theories). Specifically, we use a version of GPT that relies on ordered linear state spaces rather than the traditional complex Hilbert spaces. A network of communicating neurons is modeled as a weighted directed graph, which is encoded by its weight matrix. The state space of these weight matrices is embedded within the GPT framework, incorporating effect-observables and state updates within the theory of measurement instruments — a critical aspect of this model. Under the specific assumption regarding neuronal connectivity, the compound system <span><math><mrow><mi>S</mi><mo>=</mo><mrow><mo>(</mo><msub><mrow><mi>S</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>1</mn></mrow></msub><mo>,</mo><msub><mrow><mi>S</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub><mo>)</mo></mrow></mrow></math></span> of neuronal networks is represented using the tensor product. This <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>S</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>1</mn></mrow></msub><mo>⊗</mo><msub><mrow><mi>S</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span> representation significantly enhances the computational power of <span><math><mrow><mi>S</mi><mo>.</mo></mrow></math></span> The GPT-based approach successfully replicates key QL effects, such as order, non-repeatability, and disjunction effects — phenomena often associated with decision interference. Additionally, this framework enables QL modeling in medical diagnostics for neurological conditions like depression and epilepsy. While the focus of this paper is primarily on cognition and neuronal networks, the proposed formalism and methodology can be directly applied to a broad range of biological and social networks. Furthermore, it supports the claims of superiority made by quantum-inspired computing and can serve as the foundation for developing QL-based AI systems, specifically utilizing the QL representation of oscillator networks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50140,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Psychology","volume":"125 ","pages":"Article 102923"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143941112","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Boolean generalization of the information-gain model can eliminate specific reasoning errors","authors":"Chris Thornton","doi":"10.1016/j.jmp.2025.102918","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmp.2025.102918","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the Wason selection task, subjects show a tendency towards counter-logical behaviour. Evidence gained from this experiment raises questions about the role that deductive logic plays in human reasoning. A prominent explanation of the effect uses an information-gain model. Rather than reasoning deductively, it is argued that subjects seek to reduce uncertainty. The bias that is observed is seen to stem from maximizing information gain in this adaptively rational way. This theoretical article shows that a Boolean generalization of the information-gain model is potentially considered the normative foundation of reasoning, in which case several inferences traditionally considered errors are found to be valid. The article examines how this affects inferences involving both over-extension of logical implication and overestimation of conjunctive probability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50140,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Psychology","volume":"125 ","pages":"Article 102918"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143854276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Traits and tangles: An analysis of the Big Five paradigm by tangle-based clustering","authors":"Hanno von Bergen,&nbsp;Reinhard Diestel","doi":"10.1016/j.jmp.2025.102920","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmp.2025.102920","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using the recently developed mathematical theory of tangles, we re-assess the mathematical foundations for applications of the five factor model in personality tests by a new, mathematically rigorous, quantitative method. Our findings broadly confirm the validity of current tests, but also show that more detailed information can be extracted from existing data.</div><div>We found that the big five traits appear at different levels of scrutiny. Some already emerge at a coarse resolution of our tools at which others cannot yet be discerned, while at a resolution where these <em>can</em> be discerned, and distinguished, some of the former traits are no longer visible but have split into more refined traits or disintegrated altogether.</div><div>We also identified traits other than the five targeted in those tests. These include more general traits combining two or more of the big five, as well as more specific traits refining some of them.</div><div>All our analysis is structural and quantitative, and thus rigorous in explicitly defined mathematical terms. Since tangles, once computed, can be described concisely in terms of very few explicit statements referring only to the test questions used, our findings are also directly open to interpretation by experts in psychology.</div><div>Tangle analysis can be applied similarly to other topics in psychology. Our paper is intended to serve as a first indication of what may be possible.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50140,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Psychology","volume":"125 ","pages":"Article 102920"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143823837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cognitive models of decision-making with identifiable parameters: Diffusion decision models with within-trial noise","authors":"Michael D. Nunez ,&nbsp;Anna-Lena Schubert ,&nbsp;Gidon T. Frischkorn ,&nbsp;Klaus Oberauer","doi":"10.1016/j.jmp.2025.102917","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmp.2025.102917","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Diffusion Decision Models (DDMs) are a widely used class of models that assume an accumulation of evidence during a quick decision. These models are often used as measurement models to assess individual differences in cognitive processes such as evidence accumulation rate and response caution. An underlying assumption of these models is that there is internal noise in the evidence accumulation process. We argue that this internal noise is a relevant psychological construct that is likely to vary over participants and explain differences in cognitive ability. In some cases a change in noise is a more parsimonious explanation of joint changes in speed-accuracy tradeoffs and ability. However, fitting traditional DDMs to behavioral data cannot yield estimates of an individual’s evidence accumulation rate, caution, and internal noise at the same time. This is due to an intrinsic unidentifiability of these parameters in DDMs. We explored the practical consequences of this unidentifiability by estimating the Bayesian joint posterior distributions of parameters (and thus joint uncertainty) for simulated data. We also introduce methods of estimating these parameters. Fundamentally, these parameters can be identified in two ways: (1) We can assume that one of the three parameters is fixed to a constant. We show that fixing one parameter, as is typical in fitting DDMs, results in parameter estimates that are ratios of true cognitive parameters including the parameter that is fixed. By fixing another parameter instead of noise, different ratios are estimated, which may be useful for measuring individual differences. (2) Alternatively, we could use additional observed variables that we can reasonably assume to be related to model parameters. Electroencephalographic (EEG) data or single-unit activity from animals can yield candidate measures. We show parameter recovery for models with true (simulated) connections to such additional covariates, as well as some recovery in misspecified models. We evaluate this approach with both single-trial and participant-level additional observed variables. Our findings reveal that with the integration of additional data, it becomes possible to discern individual differences across all parameters, enhancing the utility of DDMs without relying on strong assumptions. However, there are some important caveats with these new modeling approaches, and we provide recommendations for their use. This research paves the way to use the deeper theoretical understanding of sequential sampling models and the new modeling methods to measure individual differences in internal noise during decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50140,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Psychology","volume":"125 ","pages":"Article 102917"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143799868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}