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Wasserstein barycenter for link prediction in temporal networks 时间网络中链路预测的Wasserstein重心
IF 2 3区 数学
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society Pub Date : 2023-08-02 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnad088
A. Spelta, N. Pecora
{"title":"Wasserstein barycenter for link prediction in temporal networks","authors":"A. Spelta, N. Pecora","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad088","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad088","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We propose a flexible link forecast methodology for weighted temporal networks. Our probabilistic model estimates the evolving link dynamics among a set of nodes through Wasserstein barycentric coordinates arising within the optimal transport theory. Optimal transport theory is employed to interpolate among network evolution sequences and to compute the probability distribution of forthcoming links. Besides generating point link forecasts for weighted networks, the methodology provides the probability that a link attains weights in a certain interval, namely a quantile of the weights distribution. We test our approach to forecast the link dynamics of the worldwide Foreign Direct Investments network and of the World Trade Network, comparing the performance of the proposed methodology against several alternative models. The performance is evaluated by applying non-parametric diagnostics derived from binary classifications and error measures for regression models. We find that the optimal transport framework outperforms all the competing models when considering quantile forecast. On the other hand, for point forecast, our methodology produces accurate results that are comparable with the best performing alternative model. Results also highlight the role played by model constraints in the determination of future links emphasising that weights are better predicted when accounting for geographical rather than economic distance.","PeriodicalId":49983,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73410662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Predictive Analytics Using Statistics and Big Data: Concepts and Modelling 使用统计和大数据的预测分析:概念和建模
IF 2 3区 数学
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society Pub Date : 2023-08-02 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnad089
D. Thangam
{"title":"Predictive Analytics Using Statistics and Big Data: Concepts and Modelling","authors":"D. Thangam","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad089","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad089","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49983,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89660961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Statistical Methods for Mediation, Confounding and Moderation Analysis Using R and SAS 使用R和SAS的中介、混淆和调节分析的统计方法
IF 2 3区 数学
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society Pub Date : 2023-08-02 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnad090
S. Lazic
{"title":"Statistical Methods for Mediation, Confounding and Moderation Analysis Using R and SAS","authors":"S. Lazic","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad090","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad090","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49983,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75748964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bernardini, Cibella, and Solari’s contribution to the Discussion of ‘A system of population estimates compiled from administrative data only’ by J. Dunne and L.-C. Zhang Bernardini, Cibella和Solari对J. Dunne和l . c . c .对“仅从行政数据编制的人口估计系统”的讨论的贡献。张
IF 2 3区 数学
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society Pub Date : 2023-08-02 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnad100
A. Bernardini, Nicoletta Cibella, Fabrizio Solari
{"title":"Bernardini, Cibella, and Solari’s contribution to the Discussion of ‘A system of population estimates compiled from administrative data only’ by J. Dunne and L.-C. Zhang","authors":"A. Bernardini, Nicoletta Cibella, Fabrizio Solari","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad100","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49983,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81223633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Eleanor Law’s contribution to the Discussion of ‘A system of population estimates compiled from administrative data only' by John Dunne and Li-Chun Zhang 埃莉诺·劳对约翰·邓恩和张立春关于“仅从行政数据编制的人口估计系统”的讨论的贡献
IF 2 3区 数学
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnad096
E. C. Law
{"title":"Eleanor Law’s contribution to the Discussion of ‘A system of population estimates compiled from administrative data only' by John Dunne and Li-Chun Zhang","authors":"E. C. Law","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad096","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad096","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49983,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society","volume":"71 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80852043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Christine P. Chai's contribution to the Discussion of “A system of population estimates compiled from administrative data only” by John Dunne and Li-Chun Zhang 柴静对约翰·邓恩和张立春讨论“仅从行政数据编制的人口估计系统”的贡献
IF 2 3区 数学
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnad099
Christine P Chai
{"title":"Christine P. Chai's contribution to the Discussion of “A system of population estimates compiled from administrative data only” by John Dunne and Li-Chun Zhang","authors":"Christine P Chai","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad099","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49983,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81416011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Paul A. Smith’s contribution to the Discussion of “A system of population estimates compiled from administrative data only” by John Dunne and Li-Chun Zhang 保罗·A·史密斯对约翰·邓恩和张立春讨论“仅从行政数据编制的人口估计系统”的贡献
IF 2 3区 数学
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society Pub Date : 2023-07-28 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnad098
Paul A. Smith
{"title":"Paul A. Smith’s contribution to the Discussion of “A system of population estimates compiled from administrative data only” by John Dunne and Li-Chun Zhang","authors":"Paul A. Smith","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad098","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad098","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49983,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society","volume":"141 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79093527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Danny Pfeffermann’s contribution to the discussion of “A system of population estimates compiled from Administrative data only” By John Dunne and Li-Chun Zhang 丹尼·普费弗曼对约翰·邓恩和张立春关于“仅从行政数据编制的人口估计系统”的讨论的贡献
IF 2 3区 数学
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society Pub Date : 2023-07-28 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnad097
D. Pfeffermann
{"title":"Danny Pfeffermann’s contribution to the discussion of “A system of population estimates compiled from Administrative data only” By John Dunne and Li-Chun Zhang","authors":"D. Pfeffermann","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad097","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad097","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49983,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81201717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unveiling Venice’s hotels competition networks from dynamic pricing digital market 从动态定价的数字市场揭示威尼斯的酒店竞争网络
IF 2 3区 数学
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society Pub Date : 2023-07-28 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnad085
Mirko Armillotta, K. Fokianos, A. Guizzardi
{"title":"Unveiling Venice’s hotels competition networks from dynamic pricing digital market","authors":"Mirko Armillotta, K. Fokianos, A. Guizzardi","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad085","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad085","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We study the dynamic price competition of hotels in Venice using publicly available data scraped from an online travel agency. This study poses two main challenges. First, the time series of prices recorded for each hotel encompasses a twofold time frame. For every single asking price for an overnight stay on a specific day, there is a corresponding time series of asking prices along the booking window on the online platforms. Second, the competition relations between different hoteliers is clearly unknown and needs to be discovered using a suitable methodology. We address these problems by proposing a novel Network Autoregressive model which is able to handle the peculiar threefold data structure of the data set with time-varying coefficients over the booking window. This approach allows us to uncover the competition network of the market players by employing a quick data-driven algorithm. Independent, mixed, and leader–follower relationships are detected, revealing the competitive dynamics of the destination, useful to managers and stakeholders.","PeriodicalId":49983,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75025021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Natalie Shlomo’s Contribution to the Discussion of 'A system of population estimates compiled from administrative data only' by John Dunne and Li-Chun Zhang Natalie Shlomo对John Dunne和Li-Chun Zhang关于“仅从行政数据编制的人口估计系统”的讨论的贡献
IF 2 3区 数学
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society Pub Date : 2023-07-28 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnad101
N. Shlomo
{"title":"Natalie Shlomo’s Contribution to the Discussion of 'A system of population estimates compiled from administrative data only' by John Dunne and Li-Chun Zhang","authors":"N. Shlomo","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad101","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49983,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72822970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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