Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics最新文献_第2页

Reconstructing the Antarctic ice-sheet shape at the Last Glacial Maximum using ice-core data 利用冰芯资料重建末次盛冰期南极冰盖形状

4区数学

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-18 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlad078

Fiona E Turner, Caitlin E Buck, Julie M Jones, Louise C Sime, Irene Malmierca Vallet, Richard D Wilkinson

{"title":"Reconstructing the Antarctic ice-sheet shape at the Last Glacial Maximum using ice-core data","authors":"Fiona E Turner, Caitlin E Buck, Julie M Jones, Louise C Sime, Irene Malmierca Vallet, Richard D Wilkinson","doi":"10.1093/jrsssc/qlad078","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad078","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is the Earth’s largest store of frozen water; understanding how it changed in the past allows us to improve projections of how it, and sea levels, may change. Here, we use previous AIS reconstructions, water isotope ratios from ice cores, and simulator predictions of the relationship between the ice-sheet shape and isotope ratios to create a model of the AIS at the Last Glacial Maximum. We develop a prior distribution that captures expert opinion about the AIS, generate a designed ensemble of potential shapes, run these through the climate model HadCM3, and train a Gaussian process emulator of the link between ice-sheet shape and isotope ratios. To make the analysis computationally tractable, we develop a preferential principal component method that allows us to reduce the dimension of the problem in a way that accounts for the differing importance we place in reconstructions, allowing us to create a basis that reflects prior uncertainty. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample from the posterior distribution, finding shapes for which HadCM3 predicts isotope ratios closely matching observations from ice cores. The posterior distribution allows us to quantify the uncertainty in the reconstructed shape, a feature missing in other analyses.","PeriodicalId":49981,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135154123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

High-resolution global precipitation downscaling with latent Gaussian models and non-stationary stochastic partial differential equation structure 基于隐高斯模型和非平稳随机偏微分方程结构的高分辨率全球降水降尺度

IF 1.6 4区数学

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-06 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlad084

Jiachen Zhang, Matthew Bonas, Diogo Bolster, Geir-Arne Fuglstad, S. Castruccio

{"title":"High-resolution global precipitation downscaling with latent Gaussian models and non-stationary stochastic partial differential equation structure","authors":"Jiachen Zhang, Matthew Bonas, Diogo Bolster, Geir-Arne Fuglstad, S. Castruccio","doi":"10.1093/jrsssc/qlad084","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad084","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Obtaining high-resolution maps of precipitation data can provide key insights to stakeholders to assess a sustainable access to water resources at urban scale. Mapping a non-stationary, sparse process such as precipitation at very high spatial resolution requires the interpolation of global datasets at the location where ground stations are available with statistical models able to capture complex non-Gaussian global space–time dependence structures. In this work, we propose a new approach based on capturing the spatially varying anisotropy of a latent Gaussian process via a locally deformed stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) with a buffer allowing for a different spatial structure across land and sea. The finite volume approximation of the SPDE, coupled with integrated nested Laplace approximation ensures feasible Bayesian inference for tens of millions of observations. The simulation studies showcase the improved predictability of the proposed approach against stationary and no-buffer alternatives. The proposed approach is then used to yield high-resolution simulations of daily precipitation across the United States.","PeriodicalId":49981,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86900064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Models and methods for analysing clustered recurrent hospitalisations in the presence of COVID-19 effects. 分析存在 COVID-19 影响的聚类复发性住院的模型和方法。

IF 1.6 4区数学

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-06 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlad082

Xuemei Ding, Kevin He, John D Kalbfleisch

{"title":"Models and methods for analysing clustered recurrent hospitalisations in the presence of COVID-19 effects.","authors":"Xuemei Ding, Kevin He, John D Kalbfleisch","doi":"10.1093/jrsssc/qlad082","DOIUrl":"10.1093/jrsssc/qlad082","url":null,"abstract":"Recurrent events such as hospitalisations are outcomes that can be used to monitor dialysis facilities' quality of care. However, current methods are not adequate to analyse data from many facilities with multiple hospitalisations, especially when adjustments are needed for multiple time scales. It is also controversial whether direct or indirect standardisation should be used in comparing facilities. This study is motivated by the need of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to evaluate US dialysis facilities using Medicare claims, which involve almost 8,000 facilities and over 500,000 dialysis patients. This scope is challenging for current statistical software's computational power. We propose a method that has a flexible baseline rate function and is computationally efficient. Additionally, the proposed method shares advantages of both indirect and direct standardisation. The method is evaluated under a range of simulation settings and demonstrates substantially improved computational efficiency over the existing R package survival. Finally, we illustrate the method with an important application to monitoring dialysis facilities in the U.S., while making time-dependent adjustments for the effects of COVID-19.","PeriodicalId":49981,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10782460/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82474150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing present and future risk of water damage using. Response to Comments 评估当前和未来的水损害风险。评论回复

IF 1.6 4区数学

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2023-08-16 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlad067

Claudio Heinrich‐Mertsching, J. C. Wahl, A. Ordoñez, M. Stien, John Elvsborg, O. Haug, T. Thorarinsdottir

引用次数: 0

Ankur Dutta’s contribution to the Discussion of “The First Discussion Meeting on Statistical aspects of climate change” Ankur Dutta对“气候变化统计方面的第一次讨论会议”讨论的贡献

IF 1.6 4区数学

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2023-08-16 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlad052

Ankur Dutta

引用次数: 0

Estimating a brain network predictive of stress and genotype with supervised autoencoders. 用监督自编码器估计预测压力和基因型的脑网络。

IF 1.6 4区数学

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlad035

Austin Talbot, David Dunson, Kafui Dzirasa, David Carlson

引用次数: 0

Proposer of the vote of thanks to Narayanan, Kosmidis and Dellaportas and contribution to the Discussion of “Flexible marked spatio-temporal point processes with applications to event sequences from association football” 向Narayanan, Kosmidis和Dellaportas表示感谢，并对“灵活标记时空点过程在足协足球事件序列中的应用”的讨论作出贡献

IF 1.6 4区数学

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2023-07-28 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlad071

D. Karlis

引用次数: 0

Ron Yurko and Rebecca Nugent’s contribution to the Discussion of “Flexible marked spatio-temporal point processes with applications to event sequences from association football” by Narayanan, Kosmidis and Dellaportas Ron Yurko和Rebecca Nugent对Narayanan、Kosmidis和delaportas关于“灵活的标记时空点过程与足协足球事件序列的应用”的讨论的贡献

IF 1.6 4区数学

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2023-07-27 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlad069

Ronald Yurko, Rebecca Nugent

引用次数: 0

Seconder of the vote of thanks to Narayanan, Kosmidis and Dellaportas and contribution to the Discussion of “Flexible marked spatio-temporal point processes with applications to event sequences from association football” 其次，感谢Narayanan, Kosmidis和delaportas对“灵活的标记时空点过程及其在足协足球事件序列中的应用”的讨论所做的贡献

IF 1.6 4区数学

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2023-07-27 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlad072

Leonardo Egidi

引用次数: 0

Paul Smith’s contribution to the Discussion of “Flexible marked spatio-temporal point processes with applications to event sequences from association football” by Narayanan, Kosmidis and Dellaportas Paul Smith对Narayanan, Kosmidis和delaportas关于“灵活的标记时空点过程在足协足球事件序列中的应用”的讨论的贡献

IF 1.6 4区数学

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2023-07-26 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlad070

Paul A. Smith

引用次数: 0