{"title":"Global, regional, and national burden of upper respiratory infections and otitis media, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/S1473-3099(24)00430-4","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S1473-3099(24)00430-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Upper respiratory infections (URIs) are the leading cause of acute disease incidence worldwide and contribute to a substantial health-care burden. Although acute otitis media is a common complication of URIs, the combined global burden of URIs and otitis media has not been studied comprehensively. We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 to explore the fatal and non-fatal burden of the two diseases across all age groups, including a granular analysis of children younger than 5 years, in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Mortality due to URIs and otitis media was estimated with use of vital registration and sample-based vital registration data, which are used as inputs to the Cause of Death Ensemble model to separately model URIs and otitis media mortality by age and sex. Morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian meta-regression tool using data from published studies identified via systematic reviews, population-based survey data, and cause-specific URI and otitis media mortality estimates. Additionally, we assessed and compared the burden of otitis media as it relates to URIs and examined the collective burden and contributing risk factors of both diseases.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>The global number of new episodes of URIs was 12·8 billion (95% uncertainty interval 11·4 to 14·5) for all ages across males and females in 2021. The global all-age incidence rate of URIs decreased by 10·1% (-12·0 to -8·1) from 1990 to 2019. From 2019 to 2021, the global all-age incidence rate fell by 0·5% (-0·8 to -0·1). Globally, the incidence rate of URIs was 162 484·8 per 100 000 population (144 834·0 to 183 289·4) in 2021, a decrease of 10·5% (-12·4 to -8·4) from 1990, when the incidence rate was 181 552·5 per 100 000 population (160 827·4 to 206 214·7). The highest incidence rates of URIs were seen in children younger than 2 years in 2021, and the largest number of episodes was in children aged 5-9 years. The number of new episodes of otitis media globally for all ages was 391 million (292 to 525) in 2021. The global incidence rate of otitis media was 4958·9 per 100 000 (3705·4 to 6658·6) in 2021, a decrease of 16·3% (-18·1 to -14·0) from 1990, when the incidence rate was 5925·5 per 100 000 (4371·8 to 8097·9). The incidence rate of otitis media in 2021 was highest in children younger than 2 years, and the largest number of episodes was in children aged 2-4 years. The mortality rate of URIs in 2021 was 0·2 per 100 000 (0·1 to 0·5), a decrease of 64·2% (-84·6 to -43·4) from 1990, when the mortality rate was 0·7 per 100 000 (0·2 to 1·1). In both 1990 and 2021, the mortality rate of otitis media was less than 0·1 per 100 000. Together, the combined burden accounted for by URIs and otitis media in 2021 was 6·86 million (4·24 to 10·4) years lived with disability and 8·16 million (4·99 to 12·0) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for al","PeriodicalId":49923,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Infectious Diseases","volume":" ","pages":"36-51"},"PeriodicalIF":36.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11680489/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142299641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Timothy W Russell, Hermaleigh Townsley, Joel Hellewell, Joshua Gahir, Marianne Shawe-Taylor, David Greenwood, David Hodgson, Agnieszka Hobbs, Giulia Dowgier, Rebecca Penn, Theo Sanderson, Phoebe Stevenson-Leggett, James Bazire, Ruth Harvey, Ashley S Fowler, Murad Miah, Callie Smith, Mauro Miranda, Philip Bawumia, Harriet V Mears, Lorin Adams, Emine Hatipoglu, Nicola O'Reilly, Scott Warchal, Karen Ambrose, Amy Strange, Gavin Kelly, Svend Kjar, Padmasayee Papineni, Tumena Corrah, Richard Gilson, Vincenzo Libri, George Kassiotis, Steve Gamblin, Nicola S Lewis, Bryan Williams, Charles Swanton, Sonia Gandhi, Rupert Beale, Mary Y Wu, David L V Bauer, Edward J Carr, Emma C Wall, Adam J Kucharski
{"title":"Real-time estimation of immunological responses against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in the UK: a mathematical modelling study.","authors":"Timothy W Russell, Hermaleigh Townsley, Joel Hellewell, Joshua Gahir, Marianne Shawe-Taylor, David Greenwood, David Hodgson, Agnieszka Hobbs, Giulia Dowgier, Rebecca Penn, Theo Sanderson, Phoebe Stevenson-Leggett, James Bazire, Ruth Harvey, Ashley S Fowler, Murad Miah, Callie Smith, Mauro Miranda, Philip Bawumia, Harriet V Mears, Lorin Adams, Emine Hatipoglu, Nicola O'Reilly, Scott Warchal, Karen Ambrose, Amy Strange, Gavin Kelly, Svend Kjar, Padmasayee Papineni, Tumena Corrah, Richard Gilson, Vincenzo Libri, George Kassiotis, Steve Gamblin, Nicola S Lewis, Bryan Williams, Charles Swanton, Sonia Gandhi, Rupert Beale, Mary Y Wu, David L V Bauer, Edward J Carr, Emma C Wall, Adam J Kucharski","doi":"10.1016/S1473-3099(24)00484-5","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S1473-3099(24)00484-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants and COVID-19 vaccination have resulted in complex exposure histories. Rapid assessment of the effects of these exposures on neutralising antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 infection is crucial for informing vaccine strategy and epidemic management. We aimed to investigate heterogeneity in individual-level and population-level antibody kinetics to emerging variants by previous SARS-CoV-2 exposure history, to examine implications for real-time estimation, and to examine the effects of vaccine-campaign timing.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Our Bayesian hierarchical model of antibody kinetics estimated neutralising-antibody trajectories against a panel of SARS-CoV-2 variants quantified with a live virus microneutralisation assay and informed by individual-level COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection histories. Antibody titre trajectories were modelled with a piecewise linear function that depended on the key biological quantities of an initial titre value, time the peak titre is reached, set-point time, and corresponding rates of increase and decrease for gradients between two timing parameters. All process parameters were estimated at both the individual level and the population level. We analysed data from participants in the University College London Hospitals-Francis Crick Institute Legacy study cohort (NCT04750356) who underwent surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 either through asymptomatic mandatory occupational health screening once per week between April 1, 2020, and May 31, 2022, or symptom-based testing between April 1, 2020, and Feb 1, 2023. People included in the Legacy study were either Crick employees or health-care workers at three London hospitals, older than 18 years, and gave written informed consent. Legacy excluded people who were unable or unwilling to give informed consent and those not employed by a qualifying institution. We segmented data to include vaccination events occurring up to 150 days before the emergence of three variants of concern: delta, BA.2, and XBB 1.5. We split the data for each wave into two categories: real-time and retrospective. The real-time dataset contained neutralising-antibody titres collected up to the date of emergence in each wave; the retrospective dataset contained all samples until the next SARS-CoV-2 exposure of each individual, whether vaccination or infection.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>We included data from 335 participants in the delta wave analysis, 223 (67%) of whom were female and 112 (33%) of whom were male (median age 40 years, IQR 22-58); data from 385 participants in the BA.2 wave analysis, 271 (70%) of whom were female and 114 (30%) of whom were male (41 years, 22-60); and data from 248 participants in the XBB 1.5 wave analysis, 191 (77%) of whom were female, 56 (23%) of whom were male, and one (<1%) of whom preferred not to say (40 years, 21-59). Overall, we included 968 exposures (vaccinations) across 1895 ser","PeriodicalId":49923,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Infectious Diseases","volume":" ","pages":"80-93"},"PeriodicalIF":36.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142299651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reflecting on lessons from the 2014–16 Ebola virus outbreak","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/s1473-3099(24)00817-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(24)00817-x","url":null,"abstract":"No Abstract","PeriodicalId":49923,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Infectious Diseases","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":56.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142887756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"BCG multifocal osteomyelitis","authors":"Chongwei Li, Jing Yin, Xiaojie Li, Tingting Yang, Liying Wang, Zhigang Tian, Linsheng Zhao, Hanquan Dong","doi":"10.1016/s1473-3099(24)00584-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(24)00584-x","url":null,"abstract":"<h2>Section snippets</h2><section><section><h2>Contributors</h2>CL conceptualised and designed the study, collected data, and drafted and revised the manuscript. LW selected the CT images. All authors provided patient care. The patient's mother provided written consent for the publication of this Clinical Picture.</section></section><section><section><h2>Declaration of interests</h2>We declare no competing interests.</section></section>","PeriodicalId":49923,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Infectious Diseases","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":56.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142887620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Correction to Lancet Infect Dis 2025; 25: e47–58","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/s1473-3099(24)00829-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(24)00829-6","url":null,"abstract":"<em>Wasserman S, Donovan J, Kestelyn E, et al. Advancing the chemotherapy of tuberculous meningitis: a consensus view.</em> Lancet Infect Dis <em>2025; <strong>25:</strong> e47–58</em>—In this Personal View, Prof Usha K Misra's affiliation should have been “Prof Emeritus T S Misra Medical College, Vivekanand Polyclinic and Institute of Medical Sciences and Apollo Medics Super Speciality Hospital, Lucknow, India”. This correction has been made to the online version as of Dec 27, 2024.","PeriodicalId":49923,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Infectious Diseases","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":56.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142887759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Research in brief","authors":"Priya Venkatesan","doi":"10.1016/s1473-3099(24)00828-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(24)00828-4","url":null,"abstract":"<h2>Section snippets</h2><section><section><h2>Effects of <em>Wolbachia</em> on alphaviruses</h2>A <span><span>study</span><svg aria-label=\"Opens in new window\" focusable=\"false\" height=\"20\" viewbox=\"0 0 8 8\"><path d=\"M1.12949 2.1072V1H7V6.85795H5.89111V2.90281L0.784057 8L0 7.21635L5.11902 2.1072H1.12949Z\"></path></svg></span> examined effects of transient somatic infection with two <em>Wolbachia</em> bacterial strains—wAlbB and wMel—on Sindbis virus, O’nyong-nyong virus, and Mayaro virus infections in <em>Aedes aegypti</em> mosquitoes. Researchers infected adult female <em>A aegypti</em> mosquitoes with either 0·1 μL of <em>Wolbachia</em> (10<sup>10</sup> bacteria per mL) or cell lysate control, followed by infection with Sindbis virus or O’nyong-nyong virus after 7 days, or Mayaro virus after 8 days. Sindbis virus infection rates (the proportion of</section></section><section><section><h2>Extrahepatic hepatitis E virus infection</h2>Infection with hepatitis E virus (HEV) can lead to extrahepatic manifestations, including diseases of the peripheral nervous system such as Bell's palsy and Guillain–Barré syndrome. A cell-culture model <span><span>study</span><svg aria-label=\"Opens in new window\" focusable=\"false\" height=\"20\" viewbox=\"0 0 8 8\"><path d=\"M1.12949 2.1072V1H7V6.85795H5.89111V2.90281L0.784057 8L0 7.21635L5.11902 2.1072H1.12949Z\"></path></svg></span> showed that human-specific induced primary neurons (generated from reprogrammed renal epithelial cells) were directly susceptible to HEV infection, particularly those neurons possessing neurites (eg, axons or dendrites). The neurons lacked innate immune responses at 5 days after challenge</section></section><section><section><h2>Lenacapavir for HIV prevention</h2>In a <span><span>phase 3 trial</span><svg aria-label=\"Opens in new window\" focusable=\"false\" height=\"20\" viewbox=\"0 0 8 8\"><path d=\"M1.12949 2.1072V1H7V6.85795H5.89111V2.90281L0.784057 8L0 7.21635L5.11902 2.1072H1.12949Z\"></path></svg></span> in seven countries, HIV-negative cisgender men, transgender individuals, and gender-non-binary individuals were assigned either subcutaneous lenacapavir every 26 weeks (927 mg as two 1·5 mL injections) or daily oral emtricitabine (200 mg)–tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF; 300 mg) tablets, and followed up at weeks 4, 8, and 13, then every 13 weeks. The primary endpoint of new HIV infection occurred in two of 2179 participants in the lenacapavir group (0·10 infections per 100</section></section><section><section><h2>Hepatitis B transmission during pregnancy</h2>The recommended standard of care to prevent mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B virus (HBV) during pregnancy is maternal TDF at gestational week 28, plus a HBV vaccine series and immunoglobulin for the infant at birth. However, HBV immunoglobulin is unavailable in some geographical areas. A randomised <span><span>trial</span><svg aria-label=\"Opens in new window\" focusable=\"false\" height=\"20\" viewbox=\"0 0 8 8\"><path d=\"M1.12949 2.","PeriodicalId":49923,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Infectious Diseases","volume":"11 20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":56.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142887770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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