Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice最新文献

{"title":"How will travel time use and perception be modified by autonomous vehicles? Insights from personal driving commuters and public transport commuters","authors":"Jingchen Dai ,&nbsp;Chenhao Zheng ,&nbsp;Wenxin Ma ,&nbsp;Ruimin Li","doi":"10.1016/j.tra.2025.104602","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tra.2025.104602","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are poised to transform travel time use and perception by eliminating the burden of driving and enabling various in-vehicle activities. Based on an online survey conducted in China, this study provides an empirical analysis on exploring people’s preferences for utilizing travel time in AVs. The analysis mainly focuses on car-driver commuters and public transport (PT) commuters by considering the sample size and future travel activity type (TAT) transform potential. Using rank-ordered probit models and random parameter ordered logit models, we analyzed the factors influencing commuters’ preferences for TATs during AV commutes and their acceptable increase in commuting time. Our findings reveal that the current TAT reference, the interest in productive use of travel time, and the experience level of autonomous driving remarkably affect TAT references for both commuter types, whereas the perceived travel subjective well-being is only a driving force for car-driver commuters engaging in well-being activities. Additionally, the heterogeneous effects of future TAT preferences on acceptable commuting time increase are observed, depending on the individuals’ attitudes toward different in-vehicle activities. For car-driver commuters, those inclined toward work/study activities are willing to accept extended commuting time; whereas for PT commuters, those who are least likely to engage in work/study activities are willing to accept high degrees of commuting time increase.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49421,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 104602"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144587592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling inertia and shock effects with panel data: An application to mode choice in Santiago","authors":"María Francisca Yáñez ,&nbsp;Elisabetta Cherchi ,&nbsp;Juan de Dios Ortúzar","doi":"10.1016/j.tra.2025.104593","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tra.2025.104593","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The mode choice process, especially in the case of commuter trips, reflects the strong tendency people have to simplify the assessment of their options when confronted with successive well-known decisions. Thus, repeating a “habitual” choice involving a potentially important inertia element over time is expected. However, while inertia effects increase the probability of maintaining the same choice in a stable situation, in a changing environment disrupted by a radical or significant policy intervention, user behaviour may be affected by a specific response to abrupt changes. Shock effects of this kind could increase the probability of individuals leaving their habitual choices.</div><div>The handling of such temporal effects has not received enough attention in practical studies, as most demand models rely on cross-sectional data. A few studies have attempted to incorporate inertia effects, but none include both inertia and shock effects. Here, we use data from the <em>Santiago Panel</em>, a well-known mode choice revealed preference panel built around the introduction of a radical new policy for the conurbation of Santiago de Chile. We aimed to incorporate the effects of three forces involved in the choice process: (1) the relative values of the modal attributes, (2) the inertia effect, and (3) the shock resulting from an abrupt policy intervention. We present the formulation of an inertia-shock model and its application to simulated and actual data (validating the models against new data not used during model estimation). Our results confirm the need to adequately consider such temporal effects when modelling changing systems. Otherwise, severe errors in model estimation may arise.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49421,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 104593"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144587591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The US federal tax incentive encourages buyers to lease and purchase electric vehicles","authors":"Kelly Hoogland ,&nbsp;Scott Hardman ,&nbsp;Debapriya Chakraborty ,&nbsp;David S. Bunch","doi":"10.1016/j.tra.2025.104605","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tra.2025.104605","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a survey of approximately 6200 California plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) adopters, including both battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) adopters, we investigate lessees’ and purchasers’ hypothetical adoption decisions in the absence of the federal tax credit. The findings indicate that many PEV adopters would not choose a PEV without the tax credit, with more PEV lessees reporting they would not adopt a PEV without the incentive. We find through logistic regression models that as the value of the federal tax credit increases, the more likely it is that if that tax credit were unavailable, PEV purchasers and lessees would choose a conventional vehicle or forego getting a new vehicle. The models also identify socio-demographic and vehicle characteristics associated with increased reliance on the federal tax credit. Purchasers and lessees without access to at-home charging are more dependent on the tax credit, suggesting the credit may be useful in encouraging PEV adoption for those without home charging, perhaps compensating for the higher costs and lower convenience of using public charging. Buyers of less expensive PEVs are also more reliant on the federal tax credit. While the mechanism established by the IRA allows all leased PEVs to receive the full tax credit as an upfront discount and bypass all vehicle and buyer eligibility requirements, Manufacturer Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) caps could ensure the credit is administered to those most reliant on it. The lack of sustainable long-term funding for financial incentives may have negative implications for PEV market growth, especially for those with increased barriers to adoption.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49421,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 104605"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144580994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Measuring cost and time overruns: median-based metrics, reform effect, and simultaneous estimation","authors":"James Odeck","doi":"10.1016/j.tra.2025.104587","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tra.2025.104587","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper addresses three key gaps in transportation research on cost and time overruns: (1) the overuse of Mean Percentage Error (MPE), despite the Median Percentage Error (MdnPE) being more appropriate for skewed data; (2) limited evaluation of government interventions aimed at reducing overruns; and (3) the failure to account for the interdependence between cost and time overruns, leading to biased estimates. Using a dataset of 2,228 Norwegian road projects (1993–2016), we assess overruns using both MdnPE and MPE, evaluate the effects of major organizational reforms, and apply a Three-Stage Least Squares (3SLS) estimation to correct for endogeneity between cost and time overruns. Unlike some studies, we rely solely on statistically observable factors and avoid subjective explanations such as the planning fallacy or strategic misrepresentation.</div><div>Results show a median cost overrun of 4% (mean: 12%) and a median time overrun of 0% (mean: 18%), confirming a skewed data distribution. This demonstrates how MPE can exaggerate typical performance, while MdnPE offers a more representative measure of central tendency. Still, the choice between MPE and MdnPE should depend on the analytical objective—whether the goal is to highlight extreme cases or typical project performance.</div><div>We find that government reforms, particularly the introduction of full procurement competition and a Quality Assurance (QA) regime, significantly reduced overruns. However, results for time overruns vary by method: the Kruskal–Wallis test shows lower median time overruns during the QA and competition periods, while the 3SLS model—controlling for other project factors—reveals that the transition to full competition was associated with increased time overruns. This suggests that improvements in medians may reflect changing project composition rather than reform effects alone.</div><div>This study underscores the need to consider how overruns are evaluated and encourages the use of empirical evidence over speculative explanations like the planning fallacy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49421,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 104587"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144571709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the applicability of the 15-minute city: Insights from a spatial accessibility perspective","authors":"Xuan Feng ,&nbsp;Ning Jia ,&nbsp;Xiaohan Su ,&nbsp;Matthew D. Adams ,&nbsp;Yongqi Deng ,&nbsp;Shuai Ling","doi":"10.1016/j.tra.2025.104579","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tra.2025.104579","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The concept of a 15-minute city proposes that residents should have access to all basic services within a short walking distance from their homes. However, most previous studies have focused on macro-level urban planning or land use configurations, while fine-grained, community-level evaluations that integrate actual travel constraints such as road network structures and the spatial distribution of service facilities remain underdeveloped. To explore the current state of the 15-minute city’s implementation at the community level and identify potential improvements, this study takes City of Toronto as an empirical case, and incorporates road network-based isochrones into an improved two-step floating catchment area model to calculate the spatial distribution of accessibility. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is used to analyze the impact of road network structure and the number of facilities on accessibility. The analysis results indicate that current urban infrastructure cannot meet the travel demands of the 15-minute city, particularly for walking. In the case of other “x-minute cities,” extending the travel time threshold is associated with improved accessibility in certain urban areas, but these benefits are limited to regions around service hubs, while accessibility in other areas tends to show a decrease in accessibility. This study offers recommendations for improving the 15-minute accessibility. Namely, if policymakers aim to encourage more residents to meet their daily needs within a 15-minute radius, a targeted increase in the number of facilities in specific areas is necessary. This is particularly crucial for pedestrians in suburban areas, where adding more facilities is essential to enhance accessibility. Lastly, in areas where facilities are lacking, the benefits of solely promoting walkable communities are limited to the urban environment, and encouraging cycling could be a more effective strategy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49421,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 104579"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144571708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Willingness to pay for sustainable delivery: Evidence from young consumers in Italy and Norway","authors":"Marta Biancolin ,&nbsp;Lucia Rotaris ,&nbsp;Delphine Pernot","doi":"10.1016/j.tra.2025.104580","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tra.2025.104580","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The exponential growth of online shopping has created new operational and environmental challenges for last-mile distribution. Despite growing concerns about the environmental impact of e-commerce, little is known about consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce last-mile delivery emissions. This paper estimates WTP for offsetting delivery emissions, considering factors such as shopping habits, attitudinal influences, and country-specific preferences. A contingent valuation (CV) survey was conducted with 3,791 respondents in Italy and Norway—two countries with differing levels of environmental consciousness and social responsibility—and a hybrid mixed logit model (HMXL) was used to estimate WTP. The results show that frequent online shoppers are more likely to pay to reduce delivery emissions, with WTP varying by socio-demographic characteristics and types of products purchased online. Belief in societal environmental responsibility significantly influences WTP, especially among Norwegian respondents. Additionally, awareness of the environmental damage caused by delivery emissions plays a crucial role in shaping the WTP. To our knowledge, this is the first study to estimate the WTP for offsetting last-mile delivery emissions using CV and HMXL, comparing countries with differing environmental sensitivities. These findings offer valuable insights for e-retailers seeking strategies to reduce last-mile emissions and for policymakers promoting sustainable urban freight distribution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49421,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 104580"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144570210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decoding the impact of audiovisual street environment features on cycling volumes: Insights from street view imagery and machine learning","authors":"Ming Gao ,&nbsp;Congying Fang","doi":"10.1016/j.tra.2025.104586","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tra.2025.104586","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the relationship between the audiovisual environment of streets and cycling behavior is crucial for designing more inclusive and responsive transport environments. However, most previous studies have concentrated on the macro-level aspects of the built environment, such as land-use mix, while overlooking the street-space quality characteristics that influence cyclists’ on-site perceptions. Although research has explored the role of objective visual features, studies on the audiovisual environment of streets and its perceived impact remain scarce. This study combines street view imagery, Strava Heatmap data, and interpretable machine learning to investigate the nonlinear and interactive effects of street-level spatial quality on cycling volumes. The results indicate that (1) auditory characteristics—especially noise intensity and sound quality—exert a significant and often stronger influence on cycling volume than visual features alone, challenging visual-centric planning assumptions; (2) several spatial features show nonlinear or threshold effects (e.g., green view index and soundscape eventfulness exhibit inverted U-shaped curves), indicating that excessive environmental richness may reduce cycling appeal (3) synergistic and antagonistic interactions exist between visual and auditory elements—for instance, natural sounds can mitigate the negative impact of high noise, while enclosed visual environments amplify it. These findings provide empirical evidence that optimizing—rather than maximizing—street-level sensory stimuli is essential for promoting active travel. Building on this insight, our study offers practical guidance for policymakers and urban designers to implement more targeted and context-sensitive interventions, and underscores the potential of integrating audiovisual design into sustainable transport planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49421,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 104586"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144563123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Consumer preferences and willingness to pay for data privacy in automated vehicles","authors":"Youlin Huang ,&nbsp;Lixian Qian","doi":"10.1016/j.tra.2025.104585","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tra.2025.104585","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although automated vehicles (AVs) are promising to revolutionize the urban mobility, the public raises substantial concerns over the ineffective management of data privacy, while data is crucial for AVs to enhance algorithm and assign legal responsibilities. Given the research gap, we conduct a stated preference experiment to investigate consumer preferences for data privacy of AVs. Discrete choice analysis based on a mixed logit model shows that price premium for data privacy protection, data ownership, and location of data storage significantly affect consumers’ choice of AVs, while the types of collected data and frequency of data collection have insignificant influence. Further, a latent class model identifies two distinct segments for adopting AVs, one showing open-minded attitude towards data privacy or having privacy fatigue, who even oppose collecting no data for AVs, and the other segment with negative data privacy experience and lack of trust towards AVs preferring AVs collecting only location data or no data. We make contributions by revealing not only preferences for data privacy protection of AVs but also the preference heterogeneity for data privacy by different consumer groups. Our research offers rich implications for automakers and policymakers to manage users’ data privacy of AVs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49421,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 104585"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144549395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An assessment framework for 15-minute Cities: Progress worldwide and the impact of urban form","authors":"Hui Wang,&nbsp;Ka Ho Tsoi,&nbsp;Becky P.Y. Loo","doi":"10.1016/j.tra.2025.104583","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tra.2025.104583","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The 15-minute city concept has underscored a commitment to redefine urban life with a more sustainable future. Given the challenges of achieving the 15-minute city and diverse geographic contexts, this study proposes an evaluation framework for assessing the feasibility and progress towards this goal across 35 major cities worldwide in Europe, South America, North America, Asia and Oceania. This framework is a time-sensitive and systematic approach integrating place-based accessibility and population-based measures. Spatial boundaries, facility data, General Transit Feed Specification data and population metrics are used as inputs. There are two key series of indicators: the Basic 15-minute Indicators (<em>1opp15Min_C</em>), ensuring at least one opportunity for each essential facility type, and the Optimal 15-minute Indicators (<em>3opp15Min_C</em>), providing at least three opportunities for each facility type. The latter emphasises the importance of diversity and choice in service provision. The progress of these 35 cities is then classified into one of three categories: “achieved,” “achievable,” and “unlikely”, using the 50% and 25% thresholds. Our findings indicate that European cities are closest to achieving the basic 15-minute city goals, whereas Australian cities encounter significant challenges. Extending the analysis to a 30-minute timeframe enhances feasibility, particularly in North America, Asia and Australia. Furthermore, we examine the impact of urban form, demonstrating that a decentralised concentration pattern substantially improves access to essential services. This study provides strategic insights for urban planners and policymakers to adapt the 15-minute city concept to various urban contexts and population densities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49421,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 104583"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144524204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of electric and driverless heavy-duty trucks on the future decarbonized freight transport system: Analyzing techno-economic uncertainty using exploratory modeling and analysis","authors":"Albin Engholm ,&nbsp;Simon Frölander ,&nbsp;Magnus Johansson ,&nbsp;Filip Kristofersson ,&nbsp;Ida Kristoffersson","doi":"10.1016/j.tra.2025.104576","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tra.2025.104576","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Predicting the impacts of a transition to a decarbonized freight transport system is challenging due to the inherent uncertainty surrounding the development and deployment of electric and automated truck technologies. This paper presents an exploratory analysis of techno-economic uncertainties for the deployment of electric trucks and automated driving technology and their impacts on the Swedish freight transport system by 2045. A modified version of the Swedish national freight model, Samgods, extended to represent manual electric trucks (METs) and automated driverless electric trucks (AETs), is used to analyze over 300 scenarios. In these scenarios, assumptions about the development and performance of METs and AETs are varied relative to the Swedish reference forecast for freight transport. System-level impacts including mode splits, logistics costs, and energy demand are analyzed. Higher levels of electric truck technology maturity correlate with reduced transport costs, increased road freight demand, and decreased reliance on biofuels. AETs further amplify these effects although with significant variation by operating model and technology maturity. Even without full SAE Level 5 automation, AETs operating exclusively on highways could, in some scenarios, perform over 75 % of domestic road transport tonne-kilometers, provided their unit economics are favorable. In addition to contributing by exploring a plausible outcome space of electrification and automated driving technology, this paper demonstrates a tractable approach for exploring system-level impacts of MET and AET deployment on logistics, mode shifts, and energy consumption with national-level freight models under uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49421,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 104576"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144517723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}