Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research最新文献

{"title":"Alternative outcome frameworks to model injury severity outcomes of motorcyclists colliding with other vehicles","authors":"Dongdong Song ,&nbsp;Chenzhu Wang ,&nbsp;Said M. Easa ,&nbsp;Renteng Yuan ,&nbsp;Fei Chen ,&nbsp;Jianchuan Cheng ,&nbsp;Yitao Yang ,&nbsp;Le Tian","doi":"10.1080/19427867.2025.2474310","DOIUrl":"10.1080/19427867.2025.2474310","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Lacking protection compared to drivers of other vehicles, motorcyclists accounted for most casualties and fatalities. This study explores how non-motorcycle drivers affect motorcyclists’ injury outcomes in motorcycle-vehicle collisions. The motorcycle-vehicle crashes from the United Kingdom for 2016–2020 are used to estimate two alternative logit models to account for possible unobserved heterogeneities. The models are a latent class multinomial logit with class probability functions and a random threshold-parameter generalized ordered logit. With three possible injury severity levels (fatal injury, severe injury, and minor injury), the characteristics of motorcyclist, driver, roadway, environment, vehicle, and collision are considered potential determinants. Then, the temporal instability issues are revealed through the likelihood ratio tests and out-of-sample predictions based on the two models. Showing good ${rho ^2}$<span><math><mrow><msup><mi>ρ</mi><mn>2</mn></msup></mrow></math></span> values of over 0.370, the latent class model’s estimation results are leveraged to quantify the effects of the contributing factors. Moreover, the marginal effects are also calculated to reveal the existing temporal instability, while some variables reflect the temporal instability in the influence trend and degree. The critical factors increasing the risk levels are male motorcyclists, higher speed limit, older ages of motorcyclists and vehicles, fine weather, single carriageway, and head-on collision type. Overall, subtle variations in the injury severity predictions exist in alternative heterogeneity modeling approaches, suffering from the modeling mechanism of different structural frameworks in capturing the unobserved heterogeneities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48974,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research","volume":"17 9","pages":"Pages 1582-1598"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145469212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Study on nonlinear dynamics of Bertrand game between automobile manufacturers under low-carbon policies on both sides of supply and demand","authors":"Dan Zhao ,&nbsp;Su-ya Jia ,&nbsp;Fang-yue Zheng ,&nbsp;Jin-huan Tang","doi":"10.1080/19427867.2025.2478173","DOIUrl":"10.1080/19427867.2025.2478173","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyzes the traction effect of dual credit policy on supply-side productivity, as well as the regulatory effect of carbon inclusive benefits and consumer’s low-carbon preference on demand-side market volume. By combining nonlinear dynamics theory with Bertrand game, this paper establishes a dynamic Bertrand game model of new energy vehicle pricing. The results indicate that: (1) A too fast price adjustment can lead to chaotic fluctuations in the automobile market, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are more susceptible to price fluctuations compared to battery electric vehicles (BEVs). (2) The dual credit policy on the supply side can improve the stability of pricing decisions for automobile manufacturers, making BEVs more competitive in the market than PHEVs. (3) From the demand side, the prices of BEVs and PHEVs are complementary. (4) In policy design, the balance between credit trading price and carbon inclusive benefits should be comprehensively considered.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48974,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research","volume":"17 9","pages":"Pages 1628-1642"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145469213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of socioeconomic determinants on road traffic accidents in Tunisia: insights from the dynamic ARDL and machine learning approaches","authors":"Manel Ouni ,&nbsp;Rafaa Mraihi","doi":"10.1080/19427867.2025.2479190","DOIUrl":"10.1080/19427867.2025.2479190","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Road traffic accidents are responsible for 1.35 million deaths, and road safety is the part of sustainable development goals, which aims to provide a safe, accessible, affordable, and sustainable transport system by 2030. Despite significant efforts made by the Tunisia government to reduce traffic accidents, there is still a need to understand the root causes of these accidents. This study examines the relationship between road traffic fatalities, economic growth, total mileage of highways, private vehicle ownership, and urbanization in Tunisia from 2000 to 2023. This study employs novel estimation techniques, including dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (DARDL) simulations and Kernel-based Regularized Least Squares (KRLS), to capture the counterfactual shocks in road traffic fatalities. The DARDL results revealed that 1% increase in economic growth, urbanization, and private car ownership leads to a 0.316%, 0.371% and 0.347% rise in road traffic accidents in the long-run, respectively. The KRLS results indicate that economic growth and private vehicle ownership have a positive marginal effect on road traffic fatalities. Specifically, an increase in private vehicle ownership consistently raises traffic fatalities across all percentiles. In contrast, the effect of total highway mileage is initially positive, leading to an increase in accidents, but turns negative in the later stages. Additionally, the frequency domain causality results show that economic growth granger causes road accident for frequencies corresponding to long-term (0.93–1.00) and medium-term (1.03–1.50) horizons. Urbanization granger causes road accident in the medium term (1.69 to 1.97) and short term (2.01 to 2.63). Private vehicle Granger-causes road accident for frequencies between 0.00 and 0.89 in the long run and between 1.03 and 1.73 in the medium term. The governments should include traffic education as part of syllabus from primary to higher studies. Government should create awareness about the loss due to road crashes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48974,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research","volume":"17 9","pages":"Pages 1665-1681"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145469214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimal vehicle carbon emission tax pricing scheme based on commuters’ loss aversion effect","authors":"Yangbeibei Ji ,&nbsp;Chang Liu ,&nbsp;Hui Sun ,&nbsp;Xinyang Zhu ,&nbsp;Xinru Xing","doi":"10.1080/19427867.2025.2471473","DOIUrl":"10.1080/19427867.2025.2471473","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study optimizes vehicle carbon tax schemes to balance emission reduction and commuter acceptance using a bottleneck model. It compares flat (FCT) and increasing block (IBCT) carbon taxes, quantifying traveler acceptance via loss aversion theory. Then, the study combines carbon emission reduction benefits and travelers’ acceptance for optimal pricing.Numerical examples show that the optimal pricing under the IBCT setting is always better than the FCT setting. Compared with the FCT, the IBCT significantly reduces the loss aversion negative utility of travelers and increases their acceptance of the carbon emission tax. In addition, the carbon threshold under the IBCT schemes distinguish between high and low-emission zones, and under optimal IBCT pricing, commuters in low-emission zones do not have to pay the carbon tax, while commuters in high-emission zones would face relatively higher tax. The results also offer optimal carbon tax pricing adaptable to diverse government goals and electric vehicle adoption levels.${{rm{E}}^{rm{*}}}$<span><math><mrow><msup><mrow><mrow><mi>E</mi></mrow></mrow><mrow><mrow><mo>∗</mo></mrow></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":48974,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research","volume":"17 9","pages":"Pages 1566-1581"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145469211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Research on car-following models and platoon speed guidance based on real datasets in connected and automated environments","authors":"Huanfeng Liu ,&nbsp;Hanfei Wang ,&nbsp;Keke Niu ,&nbsp;Rixing Zhu ,&nbsp;Zishuo Zhang","doi":"10.1080/19427867.2025.2480928","DOIUrl":"10.1080/19427867.2025.2480928","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAV) utilize advanced sensors and communication technology to enhance traffic efficiency. This study applies platoon speed guidance in urban mixed traffic flow to evaluate the impact of CAV integration. The NGSIM (Peachtree) dataset is used to calibrate the standard headway, while the NGSIM (US101) and Gunter datasets optimize car-following model parameters. Model Predictive Control (MPC) enables multi-objective optimization of speed guidance strategies for four scenarios. A co-simulation with Python and SUMO evaluates performance. Results indicate that the calibrated car-following model accurately represents vehicle behavior, and platoon speed guidance effectively reduces stops and waiting times. Its effectiveness increases with traffic flow but diminishes at high congestion levels.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48974,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research","volume":"17 9","pages":"Pages 1693-1707"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145469216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"String stability of the heterogeneous vehicle platoon considering connectivity uncertainty and autonomous driving levels under variable time headway strategy","authors":"Jianqiang Wang ,&nbsp;Wenlong Zhao ,&nbsp;Haigen Min ,&nbsp;Yan Huang ,&nbsp;Chenglin Liu","doi":"10.1080/19427867.2025.2478507","DOIUrl":"10.1080/19427867.2025.2478507","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The variable time headway (VTH) strategy can sensitively adjust vehicle spacing and it is essential to investigate the role in maintaining platoon stability. The driving characteristics and transformation relationships of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs), connected vehicles (CVs), automated vehicles (AVs), and human-driven vehicles (HVs) within a novel heterogeneous platoon are analyzed, considering the differences in automated driving functionalities and the uncertainties in connected capabilities. An intelligent driver model (IDM) and adaptive cruise control model (ACC) incorporating the VTH strategy, which considers relative velocity (VRV-IDM and VRV-ACC), were developed to characterize HVs and AVs. The cooperative adaptive cruise control (CACC) and IDM under the VTH strategy, considering relative velocity and preceding vehicle acceleration (VPA-CACC and VPA-IDM), were constructed to represent CAVs and CVs. Using the Laplace transform method, the string stability incorporating the preceding vehicle’s acceleration is derived. The results indicate that VTH effectively enhances the string stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48974,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research","volume":"17 9","pages":"Pages 1643-1664"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145468807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding the role of travel context and latent traits on metro route choice using a hybrid choice model","authors":"Xiaolei Liu ,&nbsp;Zhengyu Duan","doi":"10.1080/19427867.2025.2485833","DOIUrl":"10.1080/19427867.2025.2485833","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Route choice decision-making is an intricate cognitive process. This study incorporates previously unstudied travel context and latent traits, in addition to traditional attributes, to examine their impact on metro route choices using a hybrid choice model framework. A stated choice experiment is designed to collect respondents’ preferred routes. A set of attitudinal indicators is utilized to measure passengers’ latent traits. Results indicate that metro passengers consider a variety of factors when choosing routes, placing particular emphasis on travel time especially when under time pressure. Cost, number of transfers, and higher crowded levels negatively affect choice behavior, while lower crowded levels, seat availability, and route familiarity exert a positive influence. Moreover, individuals with risk-taking or adaptability traits are likely to choose unconventional routes, those having a variety-seeking trait tend to favor unfamiliar routes and show less concern about crowding level, while flexible respondents persist in seeking less crowded riding experiences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48974,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research","volume":"17 9","pages":"Pages 1708-1718"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145468803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does implicit attitude affect travel mode choice behaviors? A study of customized bus attraction to urban railway riders","authors":"Xinyun Lao ,&nbsp;Yu Shen ,&nbsp;Jing Cao ,&nbsp;Yuxiong Ji ,&nbsp;Yuchuan Du","doi":"10.1080/19427867.2025.2452050","DOIUrl":"10.1080/19427867.2025.2452050","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban railway (UR) systems in densely populated cities face oversaturation during peak hours, yet bus ridership keeps declining. Shifting some UR riders to buses is crucial. Customized bus (CB), a demand-responsive transit mode, could attract riders from congested rail systems. This study investigates mode choice behaviors between CB and UR, focusing on implicit and explicit attitudes. An online survey combining revealed and stated preference scenarios is designed, incorporating the implicit association tests and Likert-scale questions to measure the implicit and explicit attitudes. Multinomial logit models are adopted to analyze responses from 1,500 commuters. Then, investment strategies to enhance the attractiveness of CB are designed and simulated. Results show: (1) incorporating implicit and/or explicit attitudes significantly influenced choice behavior but does not improve the goodness-of-fit; (2) female and high-income individuals hold the most positive implicit attitudes toward CB; (3) equity-based resource allocation proves more effective than other strategies in enhancing attitudes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48974,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research","volume":"17 8","pages":"Pages 1399-1413"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145223530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Service area design and allocation problem for electric bike sharing system under demand uncertainty","authors":"Wenshan Liu ,&nbsp;Zihao Tian ,&nbsp;Rui Zhao ,&nbsp;Yixiao Liu ,&nbsp;Lixin Tian ,&nbsp;David Z. W. Wang","doi":"10.1080/19427867.2025.2454075","DOIUrl":"10.1080/19427867.2025.2454075","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Currently, the electric bike sharing system (EBSS) has gained popularity due to its efficiency and eco-friendliness. However, limited battery capacity of electric bikes (EBs) complicates the system design. To address this, we propose a service area design and allocation model incorporating hybrid stations, aiming to maximize daily net profit. Two cases are explored to address demand uncertainty. First, an expected value model is established, where demand is described probabilistically. Second, demand uncertainty is addressed by modeling random variables as uncertain parameters within an uncertainty set. A two-stage robust optimization model is developed, which maximizes the net profit in the worst-case scenario. We design a row generation approach to solve adjustable two-stage robust programs. Numerical experiments with data from the Daha EBSS in Yangzhou, China, demonstrate the model applicability. Moreover, the proposed algorithm outperforms the existing scenario-based approach in terms of both solution quality and computational efficiency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48974,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research","volume":"17 8","pages":"Pages 1430-1453"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145223532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Matrix-based long-term traffic flow prediction","authors":"Qi Guo ,&nbsp;Benyun Shi ,&nbsp;Youjie Wan","doi":"10.1080/19427867.2024.2440211","DOIUrl":"10.1080/19427867.2024.2440211","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate long-term traffic prediction is crucial for enhancing traffic efficiency, ensuring urban safety, and fostering sustainable urban development. However, forecasting over extended periods is challenging due to intricate trends, cyclical variations, and interference from outlier data. To address these issues, this study proposes a matrix-based traffic flow prediction model. The model constructs a matrix with periods as rows and similarities as columns, leveraging periodicity and similarity in traffic data. A row-column prediction module links these patterns efficiently, while a fluctuation transformation mitigates the impact of outliers, significantly improving forecast accuracy. Extending the forecast time span to 14 days with hourly intervals, the model was validated using the PeMS dataset provided by the California Department of Transportation. Results demonstrate the model’s effectiveness in capturing complex temporal dynamics, providing a robust tool for long-term traffic prediction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48974,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research","volume":"17 8","pages":"Pages 1349-1360"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145223559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}