Evolution LettersPub Date : 2026-05-21eCollection Date: 2026-08-01DOI: 10.1093/evlett/qrag017
Karen Bisschop, Meike T Wortel, Ken Kraaijeveld, Janine Mariën, Isabel Rathmann, Dries Bonte, Steven Declerck, Marjon de Vos, Rampal S Etienne, Steven Goossens, Jan Kammenga, Frederik Mortier, Joost Riksen, Maurijn van der Zee, Koen Verhoeven, Suzanne Wiezer, Lars Zandbergen, Martijn Egas, Jacintha Ellers, Astrid T Groot, Marcel E Visser, Thomas Blankers
{"title":"Additive effects of environmental and demographic variation shape the repeatability of evolution across replicated experiments.","authors":"Karen Bisschop, Meike T Wortel, Ken Kraaijeveld, Janine Mariën, Isabel Rathmann, Dries Bonte, Steven Declerck, Marjon de Vos, Rampal S Etienne, Steven Goossens, Jan Kammenga, Frederik Mortier, Joost Riksen, Maurijn van der Zee, Koen Verhoeven, Suzanne Wiezer, Lars Zandbergen, Martijn Egas, Jacintha Ellers, Astrid T Groot, Marcel E Visser, Thomas Blankers","doi":"10.1093/evlett/qrag017","DOIUrl":"10.1093/evlett/qrag017","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The repeatability of evolution is fundamentally important for understanding the origin and diversification of life as well as for developing evolutionary forecasting tools. Repeatability is limited by stochasticity, here defined as changes that are independent of genotypic fitness effects. Over short timescales, the two main sources of stochasticity of evolutionary change are environmental stochasticity and demographic (life-history) stochasticity. Quantifying the effect of these two sources of stochasticity and how they interact in driving fitness outcomes is crucially important for predicting contemporary evolutionary responses. To gain insights in the effects of stochasticity, five institutes replicated an evolutionary experiment exposing <i>Caenorhabditis elegans</i> to novel rearing conditions. Replication across the institutes led to variation in selective environments, including through divergent microbiomes among institutes. Replication within institutes was done across demographic treatments that influence the potential for population-size dependent fluctuations in allele frequencies (drift) and genetic hitchhiking (draft). We found high among-institute variation in fitness outcomes, which was partially explained by variation in microbiota. Whereas lab-specific effects explained most of the variance in mean fitness, the repeatability of fitness outcomes depended more on demographic heterogeneity. Specifically, population bottlenecks resulted in high among-replicate variation in fitness. When combined, environmental and demographic stochasticity additively reduced repeatability, underlining their additive importance in developing evolutionary forecasting tools. These results further highlight the importance of statistically integrating heterogeneity in experimental evolution to identify factors constraining outcome repeatability and study replicability.</p>","PeriodicalId":48629,"journal":{"name":"Evolution Letters","volume":"10 4","pages":"382-395"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13451772/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148697956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Evolution LettersPub Date : 2026-05-18eCollection Date: 2026-08-01DOI: 10.1093/evlett/qrag021
Ewan Flintham, Charles Mullon
{"title":"Sexual antagonism, mating systems, and recombination suppression on sex chromosomes.","authors":"Ewan Flintham, Charles Mullon","doi":"10.1093/evlett/qrag021","DOIUrl":"10.1093/evlett/qrag021","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The suppression of recombination between sex chromosomes is a widespread feature of genetic sex determination systems. Competing explanations for this evolution fall into two broad categories: recombination arrest driven by the capture of sexually antagonistic variation vs. arrest driven without sex-specific selection. Using population genetic models, we compare the substitution rates of full recombination suppressors (such as inversions) driven by sexually antagonistic selection to those expected under neutrality. We consider both XY and ZW systems, mating ecologies ranging from random mating to polygyny with high male reproductive variance, suppressors arising on heterogametic (Y or W) vs. homogametic (X or Z) chromosomes, and the effects of deleterious alleles segregating at other loci on the chromosome. We find that even very weak sexual antagonism is sufficient to expedite the substitution of suppressors by orders of magnitude relative to neutrality. This acceleration is robust to the presence of deleterious variation, although high variance in male reproductive success can diminish substitution rates of Y-linked suppressors in XY systems. By contrast, in ZW systems, elevated male reproductive variance tends to favor faster recombination arrest via W-linked suppressors, leading to higher overall rates of suppression than in comparable XY systems. Despite stronger selection on Y/W-linked suppressors, we find that recombination arrest driven by sexual antagonism is often expected to arise from homogametic (X/Z-linked) suppressors, because their mutational input is higher and they can experience weaker drift. Together, these results yield testable predictions for the genomic distribution of sex-chromosome inversions across taxa differing in mating system and sex-determination system.</p>","PeriodicalId":48629,"journal":{"name":"Evolution Letters","volume":"10 4","pages":"413-426"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13451779/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148698123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Evolution LettersPub Date : 2026-05-07eCollection Date: 2026-08-01DOI: 10.1093/evlett/qrag020
Antoine Perrier, Olivia J Keenan, Jeremiah W Busch, Laura F Galloway
{"title":"The legacy of past climate warming: strong local adaptation in rear-edge populations.","authors":"Antoine Perrier, Olivia J Keenan, Jeremiah W Busch, Laura F Galloway","doi":"10.1093/evlett/qrag020","DOIUrl":"10.1093/evlett/qrag020","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Improving forecasts of species' responses to climate change has become a central challenge in ecology and evolution as species distributions are increasingly disrupted by ongoing climate warming. Insight into this challenge may be gained through a better understanding of evolutionary responses to past climate change. The rear edges of species' distributions are typically relict populations persisting in former glacial refugia at warmer range limits. As such, they form natural laboratories to study the evolutionary outcomes of past climate warming. We test three hypotheses of possible outcomes to past climate warming at the rear edge of the North American herb <i>Campanula americana</i>, including maintenance of high diversity due to long-term persistence, strong genetic drift following habitat decline, and strong local adaptation allowing persistence despite environmental change. Empirical studies rarely explicitly test these hypotheses limiting our understanding of evolutionary responses to warming climates. We tested the three hypotheses, by assessing genetic variation in a genome-wide population genetic study, drift load in a controlled crossing study, and local adaptation in a transplant study. Rear-edge populations exhibited reduced genetic diversity within populations and high differentiation among populations, typically interpreted as evidence of genetic drift, yet showed limited drift load. Instead, these populations expressed strong local adaptation, thriving in rear-edge habitats that were unsuitably warm for populations from the expanded range. Warm-edge populations, therefore, may persist under warming climates by gradually adapting, even in the face of genetic erosion. Our findings highlight the importance of explicitly testing distinct evolutionary trajectories, particularly going beyond measures of genetic variation when inferring evolutionary history. More broadly, these findings identify rear-edge populations not as relics of decline, but as underappreciated models for studying successful adaptation under long-term climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":48629,"journal":{"name":"Evolution Letters","volume":"10 4","pages":"343-354"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13451775/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148698143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Evolution LettersPub Date : 2026-05-07eCollection Date: 2026-08-01DOI: 10.1093/evlett/qrag014
McCall Calvert, Alison Chen, Adya Gupta, Linda Wu, Corlett Wood
{"title":"Evidence for balancing selection on loci associated with host use in the genome of a generalist plant parasite.","authors":"McCall Calvert, Alison Chen, Adya Gupta, Linda Wu, Corlett Wood","doi":"10.1093/evlett/qrag014","DOIUrl":"10.1093/evlett/qrag014","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Most research on host-parasite interactions has focused on tightly coevolved species pairs, yet many parasites are generalists that infect a wide range of host taxa. Generalist parasites are subject to highly variable selection pressures across different hosts and the footprints that this heterogeneous selection leaves in the genomes of generalists have been largely unexplored. To address this knowledge gap, we studied patterns of host-associated genetic diversity in the generalist plant parasite, the northern root-knot nematode <i>Meloidogyne hapla</i>. By leveraging whole genome amplification, we generated whole genome libraries of individual root-knot nematodes collected from 3 different host plant species in a spatially replicated design. Despite finding no evidence of host-associated population structure, we did observe several hundred host-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) putatively under differential host selection. Genomic regions containing these host-associated SNPs were enriched for signals of balancing selection. Consistent with balancing selection, polymorphisms originated earlier in genomic windows that contained a host-associated SNP compared to those that did not. Additionally, host-associated SNPs were enriched for functions involved in plant pathogenesis, specifically the modification of plant cell walls. Host-associated SNPs were also found in genes with known roles in dampening host plant immune responses to infection. Together, our results suggest a model of balancing selection in which heterogeneous selection by different host taxa maintains adaptive diversity at loci involved in pathogenesis.</p>","PeriodicalId":48629,"journal":{"name":"Evolution Letters","volume":"10 4","pages":"355-370"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13451774/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148698085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Evolution LettersPub Date : 2026-05-05eCollection Date: 2026-08-01DOI: 10.1093/evlett/qrag019
Tianhao Zhao, Yury Anisimov, Wieland Heim, Gang Song, Valentina Anisimova, Nyambayar Batbayar, Christen M Bossu, Andrea Bours, Siqiao Chen, Wenjia Chen, Batmunkh Davaasuren, Dule, Shengjing Jiao, Xiaolu Jiao, Magnus Hellström, Georg Langebrake, Zhuo Li, Shu-Yueh Liao, Aitao Liu, Zongzhuang Liu, Jacob Roved, Xinyuan Wang, Matthias H Weissensteiner, Guannan Wen, Dezhi Zhang, Guoming Zhang, Yifang Zhang, Kristen Ruegg, Miriam Liedvogel, Staffan Bensch, Bregje Wertheim, Fumin Lei, Barbara Helm
{"title":"Migration patterns and hybridization within the Asian stonechat complex in response to a major geographical barrier.","authors":"Tianhao Zhao, Yury Anisimov, Wieland Heim, Gang Song, Valentina Anisimova, Nyambayar Batbayar, Christen M Bossu, Andrea Bours, Siqiao Chen, Wenjia Chen, Batmunkh Davaasuren, Dule, Shengjing Jiao, Xiaolu Jiao, Magnus Hellström, Georg Langebrake, Zhuo Li, Shu-Yueh Liao, Aitao Liu, Zongzhuang Liu, Jacob Roved, Xinyuan Wang, Matthias H Weissensteiner, Guannan Wen, Dezhi Zhang, Guoming Zhang, Yifang Zhang, Kristen Ruegg, Miriam Liedvogel, Staffan Bensch, Bregje Wertheim, Fumin Lei, Barbara Helm","doi":"10.1093/evlett/qrag019","DOIUrl":"10.1093/evlett/qrag019","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Facing geographical barriers, phenotypic responses of migratory landbirds may differ even between closely related taxa: some may bypass barriers while others cross them. Such phenotypic variation can arise from different genetic backgrounds and lead to different adaptive processes. A classic example is migratory divide, i.e., breeding ranges where different migration-route phenotypes co-exist or meet. Such variation can facilitate an understanding of the evolutionary background of migration and responses to barriers. In Asia, a migratory divide has been suggested in response to the major landscape, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) for 2 stonechat taxa (Siberian stonechat <i>Saxicola maurus maurus</i> and Amur stonechat <i>S. stejnegeri</i>). Detouring along either side of the QTP, these taxa are believed to disfavor crossing over the highland. However, the Tibetan stonechat (<i>S. m. przewalskii</i>), breeding on the QTP, may differ in its barrier response due to possible adaptation to high elevation. To investigate migration patterns and potentially associated genetic differences, we studied migration routes and population genetics of populations around the assumed migratory divide in Russia and Mongolia and of a Chinese population from the QTP. Our results confirmed the existence of a migratory divide between <i>maurus</i> and <i>stejnegeri</i>, albeit with extensive hybridization over generations. Of the 3 genotyped individuals employing intermediate routes across the QTP, 2 were clear hybrids. Meanwhile, <i>przewalskii</i> consistently followed a highland-crossing route and was genetically differentiated from <i>maurus</i> and <i>stejnegeri</i>. The diverse migration routes indicate that Asian stonechats respond differently to the geographical barrier. The partly viable intermediate route may be associated with hybridization and potentially facilitating gene flow between <i>maurus</i> and <i>stejnegeri</i>. The Asian stonechat complex thus offers great opportunities for research, with its specific evolutionary background associated with inhabiting and crossing the QTP, offering novel perspectives on the genetics and evolution of migration.</p>","PeriodicalId":48629,"journal":{"name":"Evolution Letters","volume":"10 4","pages":"396-412"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13451773/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148698057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Evolution LettersPub Date : 2026-04-22eCollection Date: 2026-06-01DOI: 10.1093/evlett/qrag015
Thibault Latrille, Théo Gaboriau, Nicolas Salamin
{"title":"Phylograms better fit neutrally evolving traits than chronograms.","authors":"Thibault Latrille, Théo Gaboriau, Nicolas Salamin","doi":"10.1093/evlett/qrag015","DOIUrl":"10.1093/evlett/qrag015","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>At the species level, the evolution of traits is driven by a combination of selective and neutral forces. To disentangle these processes, different scenarios of evolution are modeled and compared. For quantitative traits under selection, the species is usually considered to track a trait optimum, and such an optimum can change along the branches of the species tree. On the other hand, neutral evolution is modeled with a trait changing randomly around the ancestral trait value along the different branches of the species tree. Regardless of the intricacy of modeling trait changes, the species tree is assumed to be known and obtained independently of the trait data analysed. Branch lengths are usually assumed to be in units proportional to time, and the tree is represented by a chronogram. The rationale is that time correlates with trait changes because of its direct connection with the number of generations that have occurred. However, since the generation time of species can also vary along the phylogenetic tree, we argue that their use introduces biases. In contrast, if the phylogenetic tree is represented by a phylogram with branch lengths in units of sequence divergence, this will account for the effect of changing generation time. In this study, we show using simulations that, for a trait evolving neutrally, the fit of a random evolution model has more support on a phylogram than on a chronogram. However, comparing models and testing different scenarios of selection using a phylogram leads to incorrect predictions. Given these results, we argue that we should use phylograms instead of chronograms when claiming that a trait is evolving under drift. Nevertheless, we support the generally accepted use of chronograms to model selection acting on a quantitative trait.</p>","PeriodicalId":48629,"journal":{"name":"Evolution Letters","volume":"10 3","pages":"326-335"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13229655/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148165071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Evolution LettersPub Date : 2026-04-22eCollection Date: 2026-08-01DOI: 10.1093/evlett/qrag016
Samuel Te Greenrod, Daniel Cazares, Weronika Ślesak, Tobias E Hector, R Craig MacLean, Kayla C King
{"title":"Competition constrains parasite adaptation to thermal heterogeneity.","authors":"Samuel Te Greenrod, Daniel Cazares, Weronika Ślesak, Tobias E Hector, R Craig MacLean, Kayla C King","doi":"10.1093/evlett/qrag016","DOIUrl":"10.1093/evlett/qrag016","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Temporal thermal heterogeneity is expected to favour intermediate, generalist phenotypes that can maintain growth across a broad thermal range but have sub-optimal growth at any single temperature. Yet, thermal variation typically occurs in the presence of additional selection pressures which may interact to constrain adaptation to temperature. We propagated competing lytic viral parasites (bacteriophages, thermal specialist φ14-1 and thermal generalist φLUZ19) of <i>Pseudomonas aeruginosa</i> under fluctuating temperatures (37°C-42°C) in monoculture and in co-culture. Without competition, fluctuating temperatures resulted in intermediate thermal phenotypes in the phage φ14-1 and, in both phages, resulted in more variable evolutionary outcomes compared to static conditions. Selection from both fluctuating temperatures and competition accelerated thermal adaptation in the phage φ14-1. However, co-selection led to restricted thermal adaptation, lower genetic distance from ancestor, and fewer putative adaptive mutations in the phage φLUZ19. Our study highlights the potential for variable adaptive capacity in interacting communities amidst global climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":48629,"journal":{"name":"Evolution Letters","volume":"10 4","pages":"371-381"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13451771/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148698071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Evolution LettersPub Date : 2026-04-22eCollection Date: 2026-08-01DOI: 10.1093/evlett/qrag018
Steven A Frank
{"title":"Causal attribution by the chain rule: unifying natural selection, learning, economics, and other disciplines.","authors":"Steven A Frank","doi":"10.1093/evlett/qrag018","DOIUrl":"10.1093/evlett/qrag018","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Analysis often splits change into components. For example, how much of the observed variance is caused by genes or environment? In many cases, the split is ultimately made by the logic of the chain rule, which divides the difference of a product into two terms. Each term quantifies the partial difference associated with change in one component while holding the other component constant. The chain rule is of course widely known. However, this article argues that its deep fundamental role often goes unrecognized. The article shows how simply the basic chain rule unifies Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection, the Price equation description of evolutionary change, the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition of wage differences in economics, the Kitagawa decomposition of mortality differences in demography, many expressions of thermodynamics, and most strikingly back propagation, the core optimization method of modern machine learning and artificial intelligence. The success in creating good designs and finding good solutions in both natural selection and artificial intelligence depends on how the chain rule propagates causes from instances of success or failure back to the underlying genes or parameters of the system. The mathematical analysis presented here shows that, for finite differences, the product rule form of the chain rule yields a basic decomposition of change into two components of a regression equation. That regression decomposition is purely a description of change with no explicit causal meaning. However, simple additional assumptions lead naturally to the modern counterfactual analysis of causality. From that perspective, we can easily understand the causal interpretation that Fisher gave to his fundamental theorem, and we can see the same causal structure in the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition of economics and in causal analyses across many disciplines.</p>","PeriodicalId":48629,"journal":{"name":"Evolution Letters","volume":"10 4","pages":"337-342"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13451776/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148698092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Evolution LettersPub Date : 2026-04-11eCollection Date: 2026-06-01DOI: 10.1093/evlett/qrag013
Ruth G Shaw, Charles J Geyer, Mason W Kulbaba, Seema N Sheth, Vincent M Eckhart, Rachel E Pain
{"title":"Realization of ongoing evolutionary adaptation in the field.","authors":"Ruth G Shaw, Charles J Geyer, Mason W Kulbaba, Seema N Sheth, Vincent M Eckhart, Rachel E Pain","doi":"10.1093/evlett/qrag013","DOIUrl":"10.1093/evlett/qrag013","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The rapid pace of environmental change has prompted pressing concerns about the persistence of wild populations. For plants, because they move from one place to another only passively between generations, their persistence is especially likely to depend on their capacity for ongoing adaptive evolution. There are numerous examples of rapid adaptation in the recent past, but evidence about rates of adaptation in the wild is limited. Previously, to assess the capacity for genetic adaptation of three wild plant populations growing in their source locations, we have estimated their additive genetic variance for fitness in three successive years. Here, we present the actual difference between successive generations in their average absolute fitness. We partition this change into components resulting from genetic change and due to environmental difference, as well as a residual component. In each of six cases of intergenerational change, we have detected evolutionary adaptation as genetic increase in average fitness during the first generation, while also finding generally greater effects of differences in environment between years. Nevertheless, we show that when environmental change reduces a population's average fitness, these adaptive genetic responses often substantively ameliorate its deleterious impact.</p>","PeriodicalId":48629,"journal":{"name":"Evolution Letters","volume":"10 3","pages":"315-325"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13229654/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148165130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Evolution LettersPub Date : 2026-04-02eCollection Date: 2026-06-01DOI: 10.1093/evlett/qrag012
Greg M Walter, Keyne Monro, Alastair Wilson, Delia Terranova, Enrico la Spina, Maria Majorana, Giuseppe Pepe, Sarah du Plessis, James Clark, Salvatore Cozzolino, Antonia Cristaudo, Simon J Hiscock, Jon Bridle
{"title":"Increased adaptive potential in novel environments can be predicted from genetic variance in development time expressed in native environments.","authors":"Greg M Walter, Keyne Monro, Alastair Wilson, Delia Terranova, Enrico la Spina, Maria Majorana, Giuseppe Pepe, Sarah du Plessis, James Clark, Salvatore Cozzolino, Antonia Cristaudo, Simon J Hiscock, Jon Bridle","doi":"10.1093/evlett/qrag012","DOIUrl":"10.1093/evlett/qrag012","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>While developmental plasticity helps organisms to maintain fitness as environments change, such plasticity has limits. When novel environments exceed these limits and mean fitness declines, the extent of decline is expected to vary among genotypes, which could increase adaptive potential. We lack fundamental insights into whether genetic variation in early development is linked to adaptive potential in novel environments, which limits our ability to predict how natural populations will respond to global change. Using a breeding design, we generated c. 20,000 seeds of 2 ecologically contrasting Sicilian species of daisies (<i>Senecio</i>, Asteraceae) adapted to high and low elevations on Mount Etna. We planted the seeds across 4 elevations that included elevations within the native range of each species, the edge of their range, and a novel elevation. We tracked seedling mortality and measured development time as the number of days it took seedlings to establish. As predicted, genetic variance in survival increased at novel elevations, suggesting that adaptive potential consistently increases for contrasting species facing different novel environments. However, genetic variance in development time showed the opposite trend, decreasing at novel elevations. A strong negative genetic correlation between development time in the native range and survival at novel elevations suggested that genotypes with faster development in native environments survived better in novel environments. These results were consistent across the two ecologically contrasting species, suggesting that genetic variance in early development in native environments could be used to predict genotypes that increase adaptive potential in novel environments.</p>","PeriodicalId":48629,"journal":{"name":"Evolution Letters","volume":"10 3","pages":"301-314"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13232505/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148165082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}