Yeun Soo Yang, Keum Ji Jung, Heejin Kimm, Sunmi Lee, Sun Ha Jee
{"title":"Smoking-attributable mortality among Korean adults in 2019.","authors":"Yeun Soo Yang, Keum Ji Jung, Heejin Kimm, Sunmi Lee, Sun Ha Jee","doi":"10.4178/epih.e2024011","DOIUrl":"10.4178/epih.e2024011","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>Tobacco use ranks among the leading preventable causes of death worldwide. This study was conducted to calculate the mortality rate attributable to smoking in Korea for 2019 and to highlight the importance of tracking and monitoring smoking-related deaths for public health purposes.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Population attributable risk (PAR) was used to estimate the number of deaths related to smoking in 2019. PAR percentages were applied to the estimated mortality figures for various diseases, with PAR determined based on relative risk (RR). Levin's formula was used to calculate PAR, and RR was adjusted for age and alcohol consumption using Cox proportional hazards regression model to derive disease-specific regression coefficients. The analysis incorporated previously determined smoking rates from 1985, and use rates of novel tobacco products were not considered.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The findings revealed a total of 67,982 smoking-attributable deaths in Korea in 2019, 56,993 of which occurred in men and 11,049 in women. The PAR of smoking for various causes of death in adult men was highest for lung cancer at 74.9%, followed by pneumonia (29.4%), ischemic heart disease (42.3%), and stroke (30.2%). For women, the PAR for smoking-related death was highest for lung cancer (19.9%), followed by stroke (7.6%), pneumonia (5.7%), and ischemic heart disease (9.1%).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>In countries experiencing rapid fluctuations in smoking rates, including Korea, regular studies on smoking-related mortality is imperative. Furthermore, it is necessary to investigate smoking-related deaths, including the prevalence of novel tobacco product use, to accurately gauge the risks associated with emerging tobacco products.</p>","PeriodicalId":48543,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Health","volume":" ","pages":"e2024011"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11099572/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139378599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Influence of practice location on prescribing, diabetes care, and colorectal cancer screening among Czech general practitioners during the COVID-19 pandemic.","authors":"Jan Bělobrádek, Luděk Šídlo, Tom Philipp","doi":"10.4178/epih.e2024033","DOIUrl":"10.4178/epih.e2024033","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>The provision of primary health care was not interrupted during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Czechia, although the capacity and resources of providers changed. We examined how the pandemic affected individual general practices throughout 2017-2021, focusing on differences between urban and rural practices.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We analysed data from the largest health insurance company in Czechia, which provides care to 4.5 million people (60% of the population). We evaluated the prescription volume, diabetes care procedures, and faecal immunochemical test (FIT) in preventive care and new pandemic-related procedures (remote consultations, testing, and vaccinations). For the spatial distribution of practices, we adapted the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development typology.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We observed minimal declines in 2020 in the rate of prescribing (-1.0%) and diabetes care (-5.1%), with a rapid resumption in 2021, but a substantial decline in FIT (-17.8% in 2020) with slow resumption. Remote consultations were used by 94% of all practices regardless of location, with testing and vaccinations more commonly performed by rural general practitioners (GPs).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Primary care in Czechia rose to the challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic, as shown by the finding that the volume of healthcare services provided through primary care did not decrease across most of the monitored parameters. This study also confirmed that rural GPs provide more care in-house, both in terms of prescribing and procedures performed in their practices. Future studies will need to focus on preventive care, which the pandemic has dampened in GP practices in Czechia.</p>","PeriodicalId":48543,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Health","volume":" ","pages":"e2024033"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11176716/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140060904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Khongorzul Ganbat, Bayarmaa Nasan Ulzii, Sangah Shin
{"title":"Association between plant-based diets and the risk of coronary heart disease predicted using the Framingham Risk Score in Korean men: data from the HEXA cohort study.","authors":"Khongorzul Ganbat, Bayarmaa Nasan Ulzii, Sangah Shin","doi":"10.4178/epih.e2024035","DOIUrl":"10.4178/epih.e2024035","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>This study investigated the potential correlation between 4 plant-based diet indices and the predicted risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in Korean men using the Framingham Risk Score.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The study included 12,356 men participants (aged ≥40 years) from the Health Examinees Study. Dietary intake was estimated using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Four plant-based diet indices were measured, including the overall plant-based diet index, the healthy plant-based diet index (hPDI), the unhealthy plant-based diet index (uPDI), and the pro-vegetarian diet index. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the predicted 10-year risk of CHD.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The study found that individuals in the highest hPDI quintile had a 19% lower risk score for CHD based on the Framingham Risk Score (model 3: HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.69 to 0.93; p for trend=0.010). In stratified analyses, the highest pro-vegetarian diet index was associated with a lower risk score for CHD in physically active individuals (HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.93; p for interaction=0.020). Conversely, the highest uPDI was associated with the highest risk score for CHD in those with a body mass index of ≥25 kg/m2 and a waist circumference ≥90 cm.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This prospective cohort study highlights the positive role of adhering to a high hPDI diet in the prevention of CHD in Korean men. Further prospective studies are needed to determine the association between various plant-based diet indices and the risk of CHD in Asian populations with different dietary habits.</p>","PeriodicalId":48543,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Health","volume":" ","pages":"e2024035"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11176718/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141066639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Wonmook Hwang, Eu Jin Lee, Jae-Hyeong Park, Soon-Ki Ahn
{"title":"Effect of long-term blood pressure trajectory on the future development of chronic kidney disease: an analysis of data from the Korean National Insurance Health Checkup Study.","authors":"Wonmook Hwang, Eu Jin Lee, Jae-Hyeong Park, Soon-Ki Ahn","doi":"10.4178/epih.e2024090","DOIUrl":"10.4178/epih.e2024090","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a prevalent health issue that causes the irreversible loss of functioning nephrons, end-stage renal disease, cardiovascular disease, and premature mortality. Hypertension is the leading cause of CKD. However, the effect of long-term blood pressure (BP) changes on the development of CKD is still unknown. Therefore, the current study investigated the association between BP trajectory and the future development of CKD.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>In this study, 246,874 individuals aged ≥40 years who underwent health examinations during the screening period (2002-2009) were evaluated. The systolic blood pressure (SBP) trajectory was determined using latent-class mixture modeling. New-onset CKD was identified during the follow-up period (2010-2019). The association between SBP trajectories and new-onset CKD was assessed.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In total, 111,900 adults (53,420 females, 51.9±6.4 years old) presented with 2 SBP trajectory classes: class 1 (n=66,935) and class 2 (n=44,965). During the follow-up period, patients with SBP trajectory class 2 had an approximately 2.1-fold increased risk of developing CKD (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.99 to 2.25; p<0.001). In the multivariate analysis adjusted for other significant variables, SBP trajectory class 2 was significantly associated with CKD in males (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.19; p=0.037), but not in females (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.95 to 1.18; p=0.321).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>An elevated longitudinal BP was associated with a higher incidence of CKD in male participants aged ≥40 years. Nevertheless, further studies are needed to validate the clinical significance of an elevated SBP trajectory on CKD development.</p>","PeriodicalId":48543,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Health","volume":" ","pages":"e2024090"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11840418/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142676622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hamin Lee, Jin-Wu Nam, Mi Kyung Kim, Inah Kim, Yu-Mi Kim, Boyoung Park
{"title":"Cohort study profile: a cohort of Korean atomic bomb survivors and their offspring.","authors":"Hamin Lee, Jin-Wu Nam, Mi Kyung Kim, Inah Kim, Yu-Mi Kim, Boyoung Park","doi":"10.4178/epih.e2024089","DOIUrl":"10.4178/epih.e2024089","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The Korean Atomic Bomb Survivor Cohort (K-ABC) study was designed to investigate the health impacts of atomic bomb exposure on Korean survivors and to explore whether these effects are passed down genetically to their descendants. This paper outlines the study's design, data collection methods, baseline socio-demographic characteristics, exposure status, and disease prevalence among the participants, based on survey responses and health examinations. From 2020 to 2024, a total of 2,544 individuals, comprising 1,109 atomic bomb survivors (G1), 1,193 children of G1 (G2), and 242 grandchildren of G1 (G3), consented to participate in the study. Of these, 1,828 participants (659 in G1, 927 in G2, and 242 in G3) completed the survey and underwent health examinations, representing a participation rate of 71.9%. Exposure information was gathered using a questionnaire and verified through records from the Korean Red Cross and a handbook issued by the Japanese government. Disease prevalence was determined based on participants' self-reported physician diagnoses. This study presents details about the K-ABC study and provides baseline data on the participants recruited. These data will be valuable for interpreting the results of future K-ABC studies.</p>","PeriodicalId":48543,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Health","volume":" ","pages":"e2024089"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11840402/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142676583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jun Suk Eun, Joohyun Han, Ji-Hyun Lim, Eunkyung Shin, Junyoung Kim, Da-Jung Ko, Jaeil Yoo, Sungil Kim, Jin Sook Kim, Jung Sub Park, Ji-Hyuk Park
{"title":"Salmonellosis outbreaks linked to eggs at 2 gimbap restaurants in Korea.","authors":"Jun Suk Eun, Joohyun Han, Ji-Hyun Lim, Eunkyung Shin, Junyoung Kim, Da-Jung Ko, Jaeil Yoo, Sungil Kim, Jin Sook Kim, Jung Sub Park, Ji-Hyuk Park","doi":"10.4178/epih.e2024036","DOIUrl":"10.4178/epih.e2024036","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>Salmonellosis outbreaks occurred at 2 restaurants 2 days apart, and an epidemiological investigation was conducted to determine whether the outbreaks were connected.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Case studies were conducted for both outbreaks. Stool samples were collected from individuals, and food samples were collected from the restaurants. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and whole-genome sequencing analyses were performed on outbreak-related Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis (Salmonella Enteritidis) isolates. Traceback investigations were also conducted for the ingredients from gimbap restaurants A and B.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In total, 106 people from gimbap restaurant A and 5 from gimbap restaurant B met the case definition. Salmonella Enteritidis was detected in samples from 2 food handlers, 22 patients, and 1 food (iceberg lettuce) at gimbap restaurant A and from 1 patient at gimbap restaurant B. According to PFGE, all isolates were identified as SEGX01.089. The molecular typing of all isolates showed the same pattern, and the genetic distance was close according to phylogenetic analysis. Eggs were the only food ingredient that was supplied to both gimbap restaurants.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The outbreaks were caused by Salmonella Enteritidis, and the source of infections was suspected to be contaminated eggs. To prevent foodborne outbreaks of Salmonella, restaurants should heat eggs sufficiently, and egg farms need to establish management systems that prevent Salmonella infections.</p>","PeriodicalId":48543,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Health","volume":" ","pages":"e2024036"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11369563/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140185970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Simone Reppermund, Preeyaporn Srasuebkul, Claire M Vajdic, Sallie-Anne Pearson, Rachael E Moorin, Julian N Trollor
{"title":"Cohort profile: understanding health service system needs for people with intellectual disability using linked data in New South Wales, Australia.","authors":"Simone Reppermund, Preeyaporn Srasuebkul, Claire M Vajdic, Sallie-Anne Pearson, Rachael E Moorin, Julian N Trollor","doi":"10.4178/epih.e2024054","DOIUrl":"10.4178/epih.e2024054","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This cohort profile describes one of the largest linked datasets in the world concerning the health of people with intellectual disability. The cohort comprises a retrospective group of 100,089 individuals with intellectual disability who received disability and/or health services in New South Wales, Australia. Of these participants, 34% were female, with a median age at cohort entry of 3 years (interquartile range, 0-19). A separate comparator cohort included 455,677 individuals, matched by 5-year age group, sex, and residential postcode at a 5:1 ratio. Initial results indicate that between 2001 and 2018, people with intellectual disability experienced more than double the rate of hospitalisations (538 vs. 235 per 1,000 person-years), as well as markedly higher rates of emergency department presentations (707 vs. 379 per 1,000 person-years) and use of ambulatory mental health services (1,012 vs. 157 per 1,000 person-years), relative to the comparator cohort. The largest disparities in hospital admissions were for mental disorders, dialysis, and diseases of the nervous system and sense organs. Furthermore, individuals with intellectual disability had more than double the rate of dispensed medications found in the comparator cohort. Of these medications, 46.6% were for the treatment of nervous system conditions, as opposed to 24.7% for the comparator cohort. The mean±standard deviation age at death was 52±19 years for people with intellectual disability and 64±22 years for the comparator participants.</p>","PeriodicalId":48543,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Health","volume":" ","pages":"e2024054"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11573485/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141433138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Association of healthy lifestyle factors with the risk of hypertension, dyslipidemia, and their comorbidity in Korea: results from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2019-2021.","authors":"Ji-Sook Kong, Mi Kyung Kim","doi":"10.4178/epih.e2024049","DOIUrl":"10.4178/epih.e2024049","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>We investigated the association of individual healthy lifestyle factors (HLFs) and their combined healthy lifestyle score (HLS) with hypertension and/or dyslipidemia.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We analyzed data from 10,693 adults aged ≥19 from the 2019 to 2021 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. HLS was evaluated based on smoking status, alcohol consumption, body mass index (BMI), diet, and physical activity. Using logistic regression models, we estimated odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to evaluate the associations of HLFs and HLS with hypertension, dyslipidemia, and their comorbidity.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The prevalence of hypertension alone, dyslipidemia alone, and their comorbidity was 8.7%, 24.6%, and 15.0%, respectively. Multivariable models showed an inverse association of hypertension (OR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.46) and dyslipidemia (OR, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.32 to 0.41) with healthy BMI. Hypertension was inversely associated with healthy alcohol consumption (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.61) and diet (OR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.63 to 0.99), whereas dyslipidemia was inversely associated with non-smoking (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.60). Physical activity was inversely associated with their comorbidity (OR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.85). Adherence to HLS was associated with significantly lower odds of hypertension (81%), dyslipidemia (66%), and their conditions (89%) (all ptrend<0.001). Stratified analyses consistently showed inverse associations between HLS and hypertension and/or dyslipidemia independently of demographic factors (pinteractions>0.05).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>HLFs were associated with lower risk for hypertension and/or dyslipidemia. Obesity may contribute significantly to the risk of these conditions, while relevant HLFs for individual chronic diseases may vary significantly.</p>","PeriodicalId":48543,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Health","volume":" ","pages":"e2024049"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11417455/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140899822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Se Yeon Hwang, Chong-Su Kim, Mi Kyung Kim, Yoonkyoung Yang, Yoon Jung Yang
{"title":"Association of the Korean-specific food-based index of dietary inflammatory potential with the risk of mild cognitive impairment in Korean older adults.","authors":"Se Yeon Hwang, Chong-Su Kim, Mi Kyung Kim, Yoonkyoung Yang, Yoon Jung Yang","doi":"10.4178/epih.e2024067","DOIUrl":"10.4178/epih.e2024067","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>This study aimed to examine the association between the food-based index of dietary inflammatory potential (FBDI) and the risk of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in Korean older adults.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The subjects were 798 Korean adults aged 60 years and older. The FBDI was calculated based on the intake of 7 anti-inflammatory and 3 inflammatory food groups. Cognitive function was assessed using the Korean version of the Mini-Mental State Examination. A general linear model and multiple logistic regression were applied to assess the association between FBDI and the risk of MCI.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>As the FBDI increased, the intake of white rice, cookies/candies, and sweetened drinks tended to increase, but the intake of niacin, β-carotene, calcium, and potassium tended to decrease (p for trend<0.05). The highest FBDI group had a higher MCI risk (odds ratio [OR], 1.60; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 to 2.52) than the lowest FBDI group, adjusted for gender, age, and education level; and this trend was significant in a fully adjusted model (p for trend=0.039). No significant associations were found in men after adjusting for confounding factors. Among women, MCI risk increased as the FBDI increased (p for trend=0.007); and the highest FBDI group had a higher MCI risk (OR, 2.22; 95% CI, 1.04 to 4.74) than the lowest FBDI group in a fully adjusted model.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>These results suggest that the appropriate intake of anti-inflammatory foods and nutrients may be associated with a reduced risk of MCI among older adults.</p>","PeriodicalId":48543,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Health","volume":" ","pages":"e2024067"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11576530/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141908025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Public holidays increased the transmission of COVID-19 in Japan, 2020-2021: a mathematical modelling study.","authors":"Jiaying Qiao, Hiroshi Nishiura","doi":"10.4178/epih.e2024025","DOIUrl":"10.4178/epih.e2024025","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>Although the role of specific holidays in modifying transmission dynamics of infectious diseases has received some research attention, the epidemiological impact of public holidays on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains unclear.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>To assess the extent of increased transmission frequency during public holidays, we collected COVID-19 incidence and mobility data in Hokkaido, Tokyo, Aichi, and Osaka from February 15, 2020 to September 30, 2021. Models linking the estimated effective reproduction number (Rt) with raw or adjusted mobility, public holidays, and the state of emergency declaration were developed. The best-fit model included public holidays as an essential input variable, and was used to calculate counterfactuals of Rt in the absence of holidays.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>During public holidays, on average, Rt increased by 5.71%, 3.19%, 4.84%, and 24.82% in Hokkaido, Tokyo, Aichi, and Osaka, respectively, resulting in a total increase of 580 (95% confidence interval [CI], 213 to 954), 2,209 (95% CI, 1,230 to 3,201), 1,086 (95% CI, 478 to 1,686), and 5,211 (95% CI, 4,554 to 5,867) cases that were attributable to the impact of public holidays.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Public holidays intensified the transmission of COVID-19, highlighting the importance of considering public holidays in designing appropriate public health and social measures in the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":48543,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Health","volume":" ","pages":"e2024025"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11099593/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139693314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}