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Accruing career capital: How party leaders with more political experience survive longer 积累职业资本:具有更多政治经验的政党领导人如何生存更长时间
IF 2.7 2区 社会学
Party Politics Pub Date : 2023-06-10 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231170381
Clint Claessen
{"title":"Accruing career capital: How party leaders with more political experience survive longer","authors":"Clint Claessen","doi":"10.1177/13540688231170381","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13540688231170381","url":null,"abstract":"As some of the most experienced political actors, party leaders usually have extensive careers spanning multiple decades, competencies, and institutions. The literature on party leaders, however, has not yet incorporated the wealth of information that these careers have. Therefore, this article introduces career capital as a new continuous measure of political experience and hypothesizes that more career capital leads to longer tenure. In contrast to findings from previous studies, I show that career capital does contribute to party leaders’ survival in office in several analyses of party leader duration in Canada, Germany, the Netherlands and Switzerland in the postwar period (1945–2023). In addition, because career capital is accumulated in three separate institutions, I examine the differences between these descriptively and show in the analysis that especially previous experience in legislative office is conducive for party leaders to remain longer in office. Lastly, the results indicate that the relationship between career capital and party leader duration is non-linear and subject to the effect of attrition, signifying that political experience acquired shortly before entering party leader office is more important for political survival.","PeriodicalId":48122,"journal":{"name":"Party Politics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47233314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Setting up institutions in multilevel states: Assemblies, parties, and the selection of candidates 在多层级州建立机构:议会、政党和候选人的选举
IF 2.7 2区 社会学
Party Politics Pub Date : 2023-06-07 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231180716
Patrícia Calca, Teresa Ruel
{"title":"Setting up institutions in multilevel states: Assemblies, parties, and the selection of candidates","authors":"Patrícia Calca, Teresa Ruel","doi":"10.1177/13540688231180716","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13540688231180716","url":null,"abstract":"Institutional configurations in multilevel states create tensions in political decision-making processes resulting from constitutional decisions. Often, these decisions affect party competition, e.g., a member of the parliament (MP) may be legally bound to represent they constituency or the entire territory yet be elected regionally. In these settings parties place their members in additional positions thereby gaining advantage. Does former experience as a regional MP increase the probability of becoming a national MP? We expect that MP candidates from regional constituencies are more likely to have legislative experience in the regional assembly. We test our expectations with novel data from Portugal and demonstrate that candidates who were regional MPs are more likely to be in eligible positions and to take office. Conversely, former regional government members (elected officials) have a negative likelihood of becoming a national MP.","PeriodicalId":48122,"journal":{"name":"Party Politics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43188898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Delayed shock? How Brexit conditioned campaign effects in British general elections 延迟休克?脱欧对英国大选的影响
IF 2.7 2区 社会学
Party Politics Pub Date : 2023-05-30 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231168583
J. Fisher, E. Fieldhouse, D. Cutts
{"title":"Delayed shock? How Brexit conditioned campaign effects in British general elections","authors":"J. Fisher, E. Fieldhouse, D. Cutts","doi":"10.1177/13540688231168583","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13540688231168583","url":null,"abstract":"The impact of campaigns on electoral performance is conditioned in part by contextual effects. The popularity equilibrium model has proven to be an important guide to how the electoral effects of local campaigns vary by a party’s existing level of popularity. Such an equilibrium can, however be disturbed by an electoral shock—a rare event which fundamentally challenges the foundations that underpin predictability in elections. This article analyses the impact of the electoral shock of the UK’s 2016 referendum on EU membership on campaign effects in the subsequent elections of 2017 and 2019. Using a novel theoretical and methodological approach, it shows that while there were observable effects of the Leave vote already present before the referendum, the geography of the effectiveness of Labour and Conservative local campaigns was altered after the referendum. However, it was not until the 2019 election that the shock of the 2016 Leave vote became a particularly important predictor of the electoral efficacy of both parties’ campaigns.","PeriodicalId":48122,"journal":{"name":"Party Politics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43714266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Personalization at different levels: Intra-party competition and preference voting in local elections 不同层次的个性化:地方选举中的党内竞争与偏好投票
IF 2.7 2区 社会学
Party Politics Pub Date : 2023-05-25 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231179023
Bram Wauters
{"title":"Personalization at different levels: Intra-party competition and preference voting in local elections","authors":"Bram Wauters","doi":"10.1177/13540688231179023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13540688231179023","url":null,"abstract":"Personalization refers to a shift over time in attention and/or power from collective actors to individuals. I focus on personalization in voting behavior, measured by the use of preference voting in flexible list-PR systems. I will argue that in a multi-level context this kind of personalization can take place at different policy levels, which could influence each other. In local elections, voters can be attracted by the mayor and/or other local figureheads, but also by the national party leader and/or national politicians figuring on the local list. Therefore, scholars should not only focus on the number and importance of people to which personalization applies (‘person level’ of personalization), but also on how processes at one policy level impact on other policy levels (‘territorial level’ of personalization). By combining literature on intra-party competition and personalization on the one hand, and on electoral patterns in multi-level states on the other, I engage in a conceptual discussion about the nature of personalization. I add empirical evidence to this conceptual discussion by analyzing preference voting patterns in local elections in Flanders (Belgium). As such, we gain more insights in the remarkable decline of preference voting that took place there.","PeriodicalId":48122,"journal":{"name":"Party Politics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46343330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Candidate visibility, voter knowledge, and the incumbency advantage in preferential-list PR 候选人知名度、选民知识和在职者在优先名单公关中的优势
IF 2.7 2区 社会学
Party Politics Pub Date : 2023-05-25 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231178265
Thomas Bräuninger, T. Däubler, J. Pilet
{"title":"Candidate visibility, voter knowledge, and the incumbency advantage in preferential-list PR","authors":"Thomas Bräuninger, T. Däubler, J. Pilet","doi":"10.1177/13540688231178265","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13540688231178265","url":null,"abstract":"Our knowledge about how voters decide which candidate(s) to vote for under preferential-list proportional representation (PLPR) systems remains limited. In particular, it is debated whether incumbent MPs enjoy an electoral advantage over outsiders also under PLPR. We argue that such an incumbency advantage critically depends on candidate visibility (in the media) and differs across voters with varying levels of political knowledge. Our empirical analysis combines candidate information with rich individual-level voting data collected via “mock ballots” in the 2014 Belgian PartiRep election study. We show that the vote premium linked to incumbency increases with increasing media visibility, and while high-visibility incumbents outperform incumbents among the entire electorate, low-visibility incumbents enjoy an advantage only among knowledgeable voters. The results contribute to a better understanding of candidate voting and the incumbency advantage in PLPR. They also have implications for campaign strategies and the regulation of media access.","PeriodicalId":48122,"journal":{"name":"Party Politics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42312329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Social democratic party positions on the EU: The case of Brexit 社会民主党对欧盟的立场:以英国脱欧为例
IF 2.7 2区 社会学
Party Politics Pub Date : 2023-05-25 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231177557
Phil Swatton
{"title":"Social democratic party positions on the EU: The case of Brexit","authors":"Phil Swatton","doi":"10.1177/13540688231177557","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13540688231177557","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, social democratic parties have been confronted with the rise of second dimension issues. These issues often see social democratic parties facing a choice between competing portions of their own electorate. A particularly prominent second dimension issue is that of the EU: should social democratic parties take pro or anti-EU positions? I look at the case of the UK as an instructive example of this debate. I estimate a narrow counterfactual, simulating how the Labour Party’s vote share and seat count would have changed as its position on Brexit changes. I call this counterfactual narrow because I only consider the effect of these position changes on vote choice and turnout; and not any broader consequences. I run two simulations to compare the implications of pure proximity and proximity-categorisation models of vote choice. I generate seat predictions from the simulation results by using Uniform National Swing and Uniform Regional Swing. Broadly, I find that being pro-Remain clearly benefited the party in terms of votes, but that results are more mixed in terms of seats.","PeriodicalId":48122,"journal":{"name":"Party Politics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48763342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The psychological partisan effect of electoral systems: How ideology correlates with strategic voting 选举制度的心理党派效应:意识形态如何与策略性投票相关联
IF 2.7 2区 社会学
Party Politics Pub Date : 2023-05-22 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231176975
Damien Bol, A. Hunter, Gabriela Aguirre Fernandez
{"title":"The psychological partisan effect of electoral systems: How ideology correlates with strategic voting","authors":"Damien Bol, A. Hunter, Gabriela Aguirre Fernandez","doi":"10.1177/13540688231176975","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13540688231176975","url":null,"abstract":"Districted proportional systems give an edge to right-wing parties that are more popular in rural areas where district magnitude is small and large parties are mechanically advantaged. In this paper, we explore the role played by voters in this bias by looking at how ideology correlates with strategic voting. We analyze survey data from 44 elections in Western Europe and find that left-wing voters are more likely to support a party that is not viable ( p < 0.01), but once in this position they seem less likely to desert this party for one that is viable ( p < 0.1). Further, we find that this pattern is likely driven by the intensity of partisan preferences as left-wing voters are on average more attached to their favorite party and thus more reluctant to desert it ( p < 0.01). Our study thus demonstrates that the psychological effect of districted proportional systems amplifies the mechanical one in advanced industrial democracies.","PeriodicalId":48122,"journal":{"name":"Party Politics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43943649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Trajectories of the personal vote under open-list proportional representation: Evidence from Finland, 1999–2019 公开名单比例代表制下个人投票的轨迹:来自芬兰的证据,1999-2009
IF 2.7 2区 社会学
Party Politics Pub Date : 2023-05-22 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231177558
Peter Söderlund, Åsa von Schoultz
{"title":"Trajectories of the personal vote under open-list proportional representation: Evidence from Finland, 1999–2019","authors":"Peter Söderlund, Åsa von Schoultz","doi":"10.1177/13540688231177558","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13540688231177558","url":null,"abstract":"Little research has focused on how legislative candidates’ personal electoral support develops over time and why. This study examines the vote trajectories of individual candidates and how they vary according to candidates’ personal vote-earning attributes. Longitudinal data on over 1700 candidates who between 1999 and 2019 participated in two or more parliamentary elections in the Finnish open-list proportional representation system are analysed. The findings show that the average legislative candidate’s personal support increases more rapidly in the beginning of his or her electoral career and then slows down gradually over time. However, there is large heterogeneity in vote trajectories depending on candidates’ socio-demographic characteristics and personal vote-earning attributes. Some candidates enjoy instant success (local councillors and celebrity candidates), others do not win more votes initially but manage to build loyal personal followings in their district and receive positive returns from repeated candidacy (young, women, and locally rooted candidates).","PeriodicalId":48122,"journal":{"name":"Party Politics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43579315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A multi-stage and multi-actor perspective on intra-party competition: Introduction to the symposium 党内竞争的多阶段、多主体视角:研讨会简介
IF 2.7 2区 社会学
Party Politics Pub Date : 2023-05-18 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231174172
Gert-Jan Put, H. Coffé
{"title":"A multi-stage and multi-actor perspective on intra-party competition: Introduction to the symposium","authors":"Gert-Jan Put, H. Coffé","doi":"10.1177/13540688231174172","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13540688231174172","url":null,"abstract":"In contemporary representative democracies, political competition is not only taking place between political parties but also within parties. Hitherto, research on such intra-party competition has been mostly focused on the electoral dimension, mainly looking at the distribution of preference votes among co-partisans running on the same party list. In this introduction to our symposium on intra-party competition, we argue that intra-party competition occurs in other stages of the electoral cycle than elections and involves the strategic behaviour of more actors than electoral candidates. We present an original conceptual model that introduces a multi-stage and multi-actor perspective on intra-party competition, including three stages (the nomination stage, the electoral stage and the post-electoral stage) and three key actors (voters, politicians and parties). Based on our novel conceptual model, we provide examples of strategic behaviour of each actor in each of the stages. We further introduce each contribution of this symposium and present how each contribution relates to our multi-stage and multi-actor model of intra-party competition.","PeriodicalId":48122,"journal":{"name":"Party Politics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48809251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The why of candidate selection. How party selectors handle trade-offs between party goals 为什么选择候选人。政党选择者如何处理政党目标之间的权衡
IF 2.7 2区 社会学
Party Politics Pub Date : 2023-05-17 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231174813
Audrey Vandeleene
{"title":"The why of candidate selection. How party selectors handle trade-offs between party goals","authors":"Audrey Vandeleene","doi":"10.1177/13540688231174813","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13540688231174813","url":null,"abstract":"While the knowledge on how candidate selection happens is flourishing, remarkably little attention has been paid to the selection criteria. Why do selectors prefer some candidates? This study investigates the intricated trade-offs party selectors face when having to compromise between the pursuit of three core party goals: unity, policy, and victory. When candidates score lower on one goal, do selectors favour candidates following the party line, skilled for politics or able to garner votes? Relying on 23 in-depth interviews with party selectors from three Belgian francophone parties (Social Democrats, Greens, and Liberals), this research offers insight into how selectors balance their choices between candidates in a PR list context where the group equilibrium is almost as important as individual assets. I point out the interconnections selectors consider between selection criteria, and hence the need to regard the full picture instead of criteria on their own when studying intra-party competition at the nomination stage.","PeriodicalId":48122,"journal":{"name":"Party Politics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47666727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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