Oxford Review of Economic Policy最新文献_第5页

Creating a new sovereign debt reconstruction mechanism: why incentives, risk sharing, and CACs will all matter 创建新的主权债务重建机制：为什么激励、风险分担和CAC都很重要

IF 6.8 2区经济学

Oxford Review of Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad012

G. Menzies, D. Vines

{"title":"Creating a new sovereign debt reconstruction mechanism: why incentives, risk sharing, and CACs will all matter","authors":"G. Menzies, D. Vines","doi":"10.1093/oxrep/grad012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grad012","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper argues that the Covid recession, and aggressive monetary tightening in the US accompanying the post-Covid recovery, are likely to cause a sovereign debt overhang in emerging market economies—i.e. debt which is unlikely to be fully repaid. A sovereign debt reconstruction mechanism (SDRM) seems necessary to avoid widespread disorderly debt write-downs. We discuss a range of procedures that are available, building upon Anne Krueger’s proposal for an SDRM in 2002 (Krueger, 2002a,b). At that time Krugman (1988) had already argued that any SDRM should incentivize debtors so that they put in effort to clear their debts (a Krugman contract). Menzies (2004) went further than this to show that these effects should be further sharpened, creating what he called ‘hyper-incentive effects’ (a Menzies contract). The International Monetary Fund has argued that risk-sharing between debtors and creditors will also be important (IMF, 2020). But we show that risk-sharing will—in general—pull in the opposite direction to incentive effects, and we doubt the extent to which the IMF has recognized this trade-off. Finally, we argue that collective action clauses (CACs) increase the probability of achieving any agreement, whatever it might be. They will help avoid the alternative of disorderly debt write-downs, outcomes which will deliver neither incentive effects nor risk-sharing.","PeriodicalId":48024,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Review of Economic Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46940382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Sir Alan Budd: a tribute 艾伦·巴德爵士:致敬

IF 6.8 2区经济学

Oxford Review of Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad019

引用次数: 0

Promoting sustainable investment through financial architecture reform 通过金融结构改革促进可持续投资

IF 6.8 2区经济学

Oxford Review of Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad009

A. Triggs

{"title":"Promoting sustainable investment through financial architecture reform","authors":"A. Triggs","doi":"10.1093/oxrep/grad009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grad009","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The global financial architecture is struggling to facilitate the sustainable investment needed to address climate change. Some argue that if the Basel III global capital rules treated environmentally friendly assets as being safer forms of capital, banks would be incentivized to hold more of these assets on their balance sheets and extend more green debt, promoting sustainable investment. This paper explores the possible impacts of this reform by combining firm-level environmental, social, and governance (ESG) data with a global general equilibrium model. It finds that the reform would result in a significant reallocation of capital, goods, and services across sectors and economies. It finds that while the reform could significantly increase investment, the investment is not necessarily sustainable and not all countries benefit from cooperation. The paper identifies a range of challenges that need to be overcome for these results to hold, including the reliability of ESG data, inconsistencies in taxonomies and methodologies, and further analysis confirming whether green firms are indeed safer borrowers. The paper argues that the G20 is well placed to address these challenges and outlines an agenda to achieve it.","PeriodicalId":48024,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Review of Economic Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42032797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Exorbitant privilege and fiscal autonomy 特权和财政自主权

IF 6.8 2区经济学

Oxford Review of Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad008

Paola Subacchi, Paul van den Noord

引用次数: 1

The IMF’s journey on capital controls: what is the destination? IMF的资本管制之旅:目的地是什么?

IF 6.8 2区经济学

Oxford Review of Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad005

引用次数: 3

The role of China in the international financial system 中国在国际金融体系中的作用

IF 6.8 2区经济学

Oxford Review of Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad002

Haihong Gao

引用次数: 1

The impossibility of the impossible trinity? The case of Indonesia 不可能的三位一体的不可能？印度尼西亚的情况

IF 6.8 2区经济学

Oxford Review of Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad010

M. Basri, Luqman Sumartono

引用次数: 3

The International Monetary Fund and capital flows 国际货币基金组织与资本流动

IF 6.8 2区经济学

Oxford Review of Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad007

S. Grenville

{"title":"The International Monetary Fund and capital flows","authors":"S. Grenville","doi":"10.1093/oxrep/grad007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grad007","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Controls on international capital flows were a central issue for the International Monetary Fund at Bretton Woods in 1944. But by the 1970s, mainstream thinking was encouraging open capital flows. A succession of damaging crises followed: Latin America in the 1980s, Mexico again in 1994, and Asia in 1997. Fund policies were tweaked, but the causes were seen as being largely in the recipient countries. Capital controls were specifically rejected.\u0000 Nevertheless, the Fund’s view began to shift, probably encouraged by the 2008 global financial crisis. There was a growing recognition that the capital-flow surges at the heart of these crises were often externally driven, reflecting global factors. The appropriate response would include capital flow management (CFM). The Fund recognized this in its 2012 Institutional View, but CFM was at the bottom of the policy toolbox, surrounded by conditions and constraints, maintaining the stigma on CFM.\u0000 Meanwhile many emerging economies were enhancing their ability to cope with excessive capital flows, although at some cost (slower growth, tighter fiscal policy, large foreign-exchange reserves). At the same time the flows were increasing, with a bigger component of flighty portfolio flows. CFM measures still have an important place in this new environment, but the Fund’s reluctance to embrace them means that a deep discussion on operationalizing effective CFMs is still lacking.","PeriodicalId":48024,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Review of Economic Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43200160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Avoiding a lost decade—an interim update 避免失去的十年——中期更新

IF 6.8 2区经济学

Oxford Review of Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad014

L. Buchheit, Mitu G. Gulati

引用次数: 2

From the Bretton Woods system to the global non-system: the trials and tribulations of slow learning 从布雷顿森林体系到全球非体系：缓慢学习的考验和磨难

IF 6.8 2区经济学

Oxford Review of Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad017

D. Vines, Paola Subacchi

{"title":"From the Bretton Woods system to the global non-system: the trials and tribulations of slow learning","authors":"D. Vines, Paola Subacchi","doi":"10.1093/oxrep/grad017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grad017","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In this paper we analyse why an understanding of the global ‘non-system’, in which we now live, took so long to arrive after the Bretton Woods system collapsed in 1971. We first describe how knowledge of how an inflation-targeting regime would operate—what we call ‘Taylor-rule macroeconomics’—was only gradually created during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. We then describe how, subsequent to this, an awareness emerged, also gradually, of how the international non-system might work, depending, as it does, on Taylor-rule macroeconomics being already in place. We then discuss the Great Moderation, making clear that a well-functioning global non-system would require not just inflation targeting and floating exchange rates in each country, but also adequate fiscal discipline, and a satisfactory form of financial regulation. We describe how a well-functioning version of this global non-system would actually fit together. We then discuss how this non-system has responded to two enormous challenges of the last 15 years, namely the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid pandemic. This discussion of what has happened in the recent past provides the background to a discussion, in the companion paper by Subacchi and Vines in this issue of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy, of the challenges that the global non-system will face in the future.","PeriodicalId":48024,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Review of Economic Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42909263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1