{"title":"Regional growth and inequality in the long-run: Europe, 1900–2015","authors":"J. Rosés, Nikolaus Wolf","doi":"10.1093/OXREP/GRAA062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OXREP/GRAA062","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we discuss regional income growth and inequality based on a new set of long-run data. The data cover 173 European regions in 16 countries, from 1900 to 2015. These data allow us to compare regions over time, among each other, and to other parts of the world. After some brief notes on methodology, we describe the basic patterns in the data in terms of some key dimensions: variation in the density of population and economic activity, and structural change with a declining role of agriculture, the rise and fall of industry and the long rise of services. We show how “fundamentals” of institutions and geography affected income levels over the 20th century, and describe how regional growth after 1945 turned from convergence and adjustment to shocks to divergence. In the long-run we observe a U-shape pattern of regional convergence followed by divergence, not unlike recent observations on personal income and wealth distributions.","PeriodicalId":48024,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Review of Economic Policy","volume":"37 1","pages":"17-48"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/OXREP/GRAA062","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"61181467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Clinical macroeconomics and differential diagnosis","authors":"J. Sachs","doi":"10.1093/OXREP/GRAA039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OXREP/GRAA039","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The 2008 financial crisis laid bare several deficiencies of mainstream macroeconomic analysis, most importantly the failure to engage in systematic differential diagnosis. Mainstream macroeconomics, following Keynes, has unduly privileged aggregate demand shocks in both analysis and policy prescription, whereas actual macroeconomic crises emerge from a much more diverse set of causes: demand, supply, panic, coordination failures, and, of course, even pandemic disease. The systematic application of differential diagnosis of underlying sources of shocks would improve system resilience and policy responses.","PeriodicalId":48024,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Review of Economic Policy","volume":"36 1","pages":"712-723"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2020-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/OXREP/GRAA039","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42192496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Implications of household-level evidence for policy models: the case of macro-financial linkages","authors":"J. Muellbauer","doi":"10.1093/OXREP/GRAA038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OXREP/GRAA038","url":null,"abstract":"Macroeconomic policy models should track the different channels of monetary transmission, providing a framework for Monetary Policy Committees. They should also be useful for assessing risks to financial stability, including for designing macroprudential stress tests and instrument settings in the new macroprudential toolkits. Current policy models, including the ‘semi-structural’ non-DSGE econometric models such as FRB-US, are seriously deficient in these respects, failing to capture the credit channel and the role of real estate in the financial accelerator that operated in the global financial crisis, and in key transmission channels in the recovery. Furthermore, developments in economic theory, greatly encouraged by new evidence, have rendered redundant the previously accepted micro-foundations for household behaviour in these policy models. A multi-purpose policy model needs to include a household-housing sub-system. This should contain a consumption function broadly consistent with the micro-evidence with equations for permanent income, for the balance sheet drivers, and for residential investment. To capture the credit channel, this block of the model needs to embed common credit conditions in the equations. Sub-system estimation is required to impose the cross-equation restrictions implied by these common factors.","PeriodicalId":48024,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Review of Economic Policy","volume":"36 1","pages":"510-555"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2020-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43308174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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