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Learning by Sharing: Monetary Policy and Common Knowledge 分享中学习:货币政策与常识
IF 6 1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20190311
Alexandre N. Kohlhas
{"title":"Learning by Sharing: Monetary Policy and Common Knowledge","authors":"Alexandre N. Kohlhas","doi":"10.1257/mac.20190311","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190311","url":null,"abstract":"A common view states that central bank releases decrease central banks' own information about the economy and are harmful if about inefficient disturbances, such as cost-push shocks. This paper shows how neither is true in a microfounded macroeconomic model in which households and firms learn from central bank releases and the central bank learns from the observation of firm prices. Central bank releases make private sector and central bank expectations closer to common knowledge. This helps transmit dispersed information between the private sector and the central bank. As a result, the release of additional central bank information decreases the central bank's own uncertainty and can be beneficial, irrespective of the efficacy of macroeconomic fluctuations. A calibrated example suggests that the benefits of disclosure are substantial. (JEL D82, D83, D84, E12, E52, E58)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83128382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Income Differences, Productivity, and Input-Output Networks 收入差异、生产率和投入产出网络
IF 6 1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180342
Harald Fadinger, C. Ghiglino, Mariya Teteryatnikova
{"title":"Income Differences, Productivity, and Input-Output Networks","authors":"Harald Fadinger, C. Ghiglino, Mariya Teteryatnikova","doi":"10.1257/mac.20180342","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180342","url":null,"abstract":"We study the importance of input-output (IO) linkages and sectoral productivity (TFP) in determining cross-country income differences. We find that while highly connected sectors are more productive than the typical sector in poor countries, the opposite is true in rich ones. To assess the quantitative role of linkages and sectoral TFP differences in cross-country income differences, we decompose cross-country income variation using a multisector general equilibrium model. We find that IO linkages substantially amplify fundamental sectoral TFP variation, but this amplification is significantly weaker than the one suggested by a simple IO model with an aggregate intermediate good. (JEL D57, E16, E23, O11, O47)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83259164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Entry Barriers, Idiosyncratic Distortions, and the Firm Size Distribution 进入壁垒、特质扭曲与企业规模分布
IF 6 1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200234
Roberto N. Fattal-Jaef
{"title":"Entry Barriers, Idiosyncratic Distortions, and the Firm Size Distribution","authors":"Roberto N. Fattal-Jaef","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200234","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200234","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the interaction between barriers to firm entry and distortions to allocative efficiency in a standard model of firm dynamics. We derive a strategy to infer entry barriers based on cross-country differences in the firm size distribution and idiosyncratic distortions. The inferred barriers resemble regulation-based indicators in advanced economies but are substantially higher in middle- and low-income countries. Regulation-based indicators cannot account for cross-country differences in average firm size and underestimate the aggregate productivity gains associated with their removal by up to 8 percent on average. (JEL D21, D24, H25, L11, L60)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does Consumption Respond to Transitory Shocks? Reconciling Natural Experiments and Semistructural Methods 消费对短暂的冲击有反应吗?调和自然实验和半结构方法
IF 6 1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20190296
J. Commault
{"title":"Does Consumption Respond to Transitory Shocks? Reconciling Natural Experiments and Semistructural Methods","authors":"J. Commault","doi":"10.1257/mac.20190296","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190296","url":null,"abstract":"Studies based on natural experiments find that consumption responds strongly and significantly to a transitory variation in income, while semistructural estimations find no pass-through of transitory shocks to consumption. I develop a more robust semistructural estimator that relaxes the assumption that log consumption is a random walk. The robust pass-through estimate is significant and large, implying a yearly marginal propensity to consume of 0.32, close to the natural experiment findings. The robust estimator performs well in numerical simulations of a life cycle model, while nonrobust estimators do not. The difference between the two in the simulations is similar to their difference in the survey data. (JEL D15, E21, J11)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79501057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Sectoral Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy 行业异质性与货币政策
IF 6 1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20190248
Jonathan Kreamer
{"title":"Sectoral Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy","authors":"Jonathan Kreamer","doi":"10.1257/mac.20190248","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190248","url":null,"abstract":"Since sectors differ in their sensitivity to interest rates, monetary policy produces inefficient sectoral fluctuations. In a model with sectoral heterogeneity, I show that policymakers should weight sectors proportionally to their interest elasticities, account for dynamic demand effects from durable goods, and systematically utilize forward guidance to reduce sectoral volatility. A calibrated model confirms these recommendations and finds that neglecting sectoral volatility produces substantial welfare losses. The best-performing policy rule stabilizes a sectorally weighted measure of inflation, plus lags of past durable inflation. (JEL E12, E23, E24, E31, E32, E43, E52)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82353529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
High Marginal Tax Rates on the Top 1 Percent? Lessons from a Life-Cycle Model with Idiosyncratic Income Risk 对收入最高的1%人群征收高边际税率?具有特殊收入风险的生命周期模型的经验教训
IF 6 1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20150170
F. Kindermann, Dirk Krueger
{"title":"High Marginal Tax Rates on the Top 1 Percent? Lessons from a Life-Cycle Model with Idiosyncratic Income Risk","authors":"F. Kindermann, Dirk Krueger","doi":"10.1257/mac.20150170","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150170","url":null,"abstract":"This paper argues that high marginal labor income tax rates on top earners are an effective tool for social insurance even when households have high labor supply elasticity, households make dynamic savings decisions, and policies have general equilibrium effects. We construct a large-scale overlapping generations model with uninsurable labor productivity risk, show that it has a realistic wealth distribution, and numerically characterize the optimal top marginal rate. We find that marginal tax rates for top 1 percent earners of 79 percent are optimal as long as the model earnings and wealth distributions display a degree of concentration as observed in US data. (JEL D15, D31, H21, H24, H55, J22, J31)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90616629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 13
Optimal Currency Areas with Labor Market Frictions 存在劳动力市场摩擦的最优货币区
IF 6 1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20190002
Rohan Kekre
{"title":"Optimal Currency Areas with Labor Market Frictions","authors":"Rohan Kekre","doi":"10.1257/mac.20190002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190002","url":null,"abstract":"I study efficiency and optimal monetary policy in a two-country monetary union with frictional labor markets. With heterogeneity in labor market frictions, the constrained efficient allocation generically cannot be achieved even if productivity shocks affecting each country are the same. The second-best optimal policy targets smaller inflation and output gaps in the more sclerotic labor market. A quantitative calibration to the eurozone implies welfare gains from redefining the union’s inflation target to put more weight on its sclerotic members. (JEL E23, E24, E31, E52, F33, F45)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Agricultural Diversity, Structural Change, and Long-Run Development: Evidence from the United States 农业多样性、结构变化与长期发展:来自美国的证据
IF 6 1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20190285
Martín Fiszbein
{"title":"Agricultural Diversity, Structural Change, and Long-Run Development: Evidence from the United States","authors":"Martín Fiszbein","doi":"10.1257/mac.20190285","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190285","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the role of agricultural diversity in the process of development. Using data from US counties and exploiting climate-induced variation in agricultural production patterns, I show that mid-nineteenth-century agricultural diversity had positive long-run effects on population density and income per capita. During the Second Industrial Revolution, agricultural diversity fostered industrialization, diversification within manufacturing, patent activity, formation of new labor skills, and the expansion of knowledge- and skill-intensive industries. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that diversity spurs the acquisition of new ideas and new skills because of the presence of cross-sector spillovers and complementarities. (JEL N31, N32, N51, N52, N91, N92, Q10)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78945633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Knowledge Diffusion, Trade, and Innovation across Countries and Sectors 跨国家和部门的知识传播、贸易和创新
IF 6 1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200084
Jie Cai, Nan Li, Ana Maria Santacreu
{"title":"Knowledge Diffusion, Trade, and Innovation across Countries and Sectors","authors":"Jie Cai, Nan Li, Ana Maria Santacreu","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200084","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200084","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a unified framework for quantifying the cross-country and cross-sector interactions among trade, innovation, and knowledge diffusion. This framework is used to study the effect of trade liberalization in an endogenous growth model in which comparative advantage and the stock of knowledge are determined by innovation and diffusion. The model is calibrated to match observed cross-country and cross-sector heterogeneity in production, innovation efficiency, and knowledge spillovers. The counterfactual analysis shows that a reduction in trade costs induces a reallocation of R&D and comparative advantage across sectors. Heterogeneous knowledge diffusion amplifies the specialization effects of trade-induced R&D reallocation, becoming an important source of welfare. (JEL F12, F14, O33, O34, O41)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75665020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Capital Controls for Crisis Management Policy in a Global Economy 全球经济危机管理政策中的资本管制
IF 6 1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200073
J. S. Davis, M. Devereux
{"title":"Capital Controls for Crisis Management Policy in a Global Economy","authors":"J. S. Davis, M. Devereux","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200073","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200073","url":null,"abstract":"Capital controls may be justified as a policy to combat a financial crisis. But for large economies, capital controls may have substantial spillovers to the rest of the world. We investigate the case for capital controls in a large open economy, when domestic financial constraints may bind during a crisis. When the crisis country is indebted, it must trade off the desire to tax inflows to improve the terms of trade and tax outflows to ease financial constraints. This trade-off renders noncooperative use of capital controls ineffective as crisis management policy. Effective use of capital controls for crisis management requires international cooperation. (JEL F23, F38, F41, G01, H21, H25)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87999600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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