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Rural-Urban Migration, Structural Transformation, and Housing Markets in China 中国城乡人口迁移、结构转型与住房市场
1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20160142
Carlos Garriga, Yang Tang, Ping Wang
{"title":"Rural-Urban Migration, Structural Transformation, and Housing Markets in China","authors":"Carlos Garriga, Yang Tang, Ping Wang","doi":"10.1257/mac.20160142","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20160142","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the interrelationship between urbanization, structural transformation, and the post-2000 Chinese housing boom through the lens of a dynamic spatial equilibrium model that features migration and a rich housing market structure with mortgages. Urbanization and structural transformation emerge as key drivers of China's house price boom, while at the same time rising house prices impede these forces of economic transition. Policies to boost urbanization can be undone by the endogenous price response. Land supply expansion ameliorates this negative feedback. Overall, housing markets powerfully shape the path of economic development. (JEL E23, O18, P23, P25, R23, R31, R58)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"106 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135877883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
The Response of Consumer Spending to Changes in Gasoline Prices 消费者支出对汽油价格变化的反应
1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210024
Michael Gelman, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Shachar Kariv, Dmitri Koustas, Matthew Shapiro, Dan Silverman, Steven Tadelis
{"title":"The Response of Consumer Spending to Changes in Gasoline Prices","authors":"Michael Gelman, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Shachar Kariv, Dmitri Koustas, Matthew Shapiro, Dan Silverman, Steven Tadelis","doi":"10.1257/mac.20210024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210024","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates how overall consumer spending responds to changes in gasoline prices. It uses the differential impact across consumers of the sharp drop in gasoline prices in 2014 for identification. This estimation strategy is implemented using comprehensive, high-frequency, transaction-level data for a large panel of individuals. The average estimated marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of unanticipated, permanent shocks to income is approximately one. This estimate accounts for the elasticity of demand for gasoline and potential slow adjustment to changes in prices. The high MPC implies that changes in gasoline prices have large aggregate effects. (JEL D12, G51, L11, L71, L81, Q35)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"96 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135945991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
The State-Dependent Effectiveness of Hiring Subsidies 雇佣补贴的国家依赖有效性
1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200402
Sebastian Graves
{"title":"The State-Dependent Effectiveness of Hiring Subsidies","authors":"Sebastian Graves","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200402","url":null,"abstract":"The responsiveness of job creation to shocks is procyclical, while the responsiveness of job destruction is countercyclical. This new finding can be explained by a heterogeneous-firm model in which hiring costs lead to lumpy employment adjustment. The model predicts that policies that aim to stimulate employment by encouraging job creation, such as hiring subsidies, are significantly less effective in recessions: these are times when few firms are near their hiring thresholds and many firms are near their firing thresholds. Policies that target the job destruction margin, such as employment protection subsidies, are particularly effective at such times. (JEL E24, E32, H25, J23, J64)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136185952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Learning about Debt Crises 了解债务危机
IF 6 1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20190189
Radek Paluszynski
{"title":"Learning about Debt Crises","authors":"Radek Paluszynski","doi":"10.1257/mac.20190189","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190189","url":null,"abstract":"The European debt crisis presents a challenge to our understanding of the relationship between government bond yields and economic fundamentals. I argue that information frictions are an important missing element and support that claim with evidence on the evolution of GDP forecast errors after 2008. I build a quantitative model of sovereign default where output features rare disasters and agents learn about their realizations. Debt crises coincide with economic depressions and develop gradually while markets update their expectations about future income. Calibrated to the Portuguese economy, the model replicates the comovement of bond spreads and output before and after 2008. (JEL E23, E27, E32, E43, F34, H63)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87059203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Consumption Heterogeneity: Micro Drivers and Macro Implications 消费异质性:微观驱动与宏观影响
1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200352
Edmund Crawley, Andreas Kuchler
{"title":"Consumption Heterogeneity: Micro Drivers and Macro Implications","authors":"Edmund Crawley, Andreas Kuchler","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200352","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200352","url":null,"abstract":"We document heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) across household characteristics relevant to understanding heterogeneous agent models and monetary policy transmission. We find a strong negative relationship between household liquid wealth and MPC. We show that household liquid wealth predicts MPC closely for every other household characteristic we look at. We use a new empirical method that overcomes sources of bias found in the existing literature, along with administrative data from Denmark that allow us to identify heterogeneous behavior. We use our results to analyze monetary policy transmission mechanisms in both Denmark and the United States. (JEL D12, D31, E21, E43, E52, G51)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"125 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135181164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Anchored Inflation Expectations 锚定通胀预期
1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200080
Carlos Carvalho, Stefano Eusepi, Emanuel Moench, Bruce Preston
{"title":"Anchored Inflation Expectations","authors":"Carlos Carvalho, Stefano Eusepi, Emanuel Moench, Bruce Preston","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200080","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200080","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in inflation expectations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations for the United States and other countries over the postwar period. In our theory, long-run inflation expectations are endogenous. They are driven by short-run inflation surprises, in a way that depends on recent forecasting performance and monetary policy. This distinguishes our theory from common explanations of low-frequency properties of inflation. The model, estimated using only inflation and short-term forecasts from professional surveys, accurately predicts observed measures of long-term inflation expectations and identifies episodes of unanchored expectations. (JEL D83, D84, E12, E23, E31, E37, E52)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136092732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Fiscal Policy, Relative Prices, and Net Exports in a Currency Union 货币联盟中的财政政策、相对价格和净出口
IF 6 1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200470
Luisa Lambertini, C. Proebsting
{"title":"Fiscal Policy, Relative Prices, and Net Exports in a Currency Union","authors":"Luisa Lambertini, C. Proebsting","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200470","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200470","url":null,"abstract":"The hoped-for silver lining of euro-area austerity programs was to raise external competitiveness and improve current accounts. Using product- and industry-level data for 12 countries over the period 1999–2018, we show that reductions in government spending reduce prices and wages but only for products with low import content and industries with low export shares. This leads to asymmetric expenditure switching, with net exports improving through lower imports rather than higher exports. The standard small-open-economy model fails to rationalize these findings, but home bias in government spending and frictions preventing factor prices from equalizing across sectors considerably improve the fit of the model. (JEL E31, E62, F14, F33, F45, H20, H50)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80326765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Robust Predictions for DSGE Models with Incomplete Information 不完全信息下DSGE模型的鲁棒预测
1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200053
Ryan Chahrour, Robert Ulbricht
{"title":"Robust Predictions for DSGE Models with Incomplete Information","authors":"Ryan Chahrour, Robert Ulbricht","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200053","url":null,"abstract":"We provide predictions for DSGE models with incomplete information that are robust across information structures. Our approach maps an incomplete-information model into a full-information economy with time-varying expectation wedges and provides conditions that ensure the wedges are rationalizable by some information structure. Using our approach, we quantify the potential importance of information as a source of business cycle fluctuations in an otherwise frictionless model. Our approach uncovers a central role for firm-specific demand shocks in supporting aggregate confidence fluctuations. Only if firms face unobserved local demand shocks can confidence fluctuations account for a significant portion of the US business cycle. (JEL D82, D83, E13, E31, E32)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135181362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Firm Wages in a Frictional Labor Market 摩擦性劳动力市场中的企业工资
1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200440
Leena Rudanko
{"title":"Firm Wages in a Frictional Labor Market","authors":"Leena Rudanko","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200440","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200440","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies wage setting in a directed search model of multiworker firms facing within-firm equity constraints on wages. The constraints reduce wages, as firms exploit their monopsony power over their existing workers, rendering wages less responsive to productivity in doing so. They also give rise to a time inconsistency in the dynamic firm problem, as firms face a less elastic labor supply in the short run than in the long run, making commitment to future wages valuable. Constrained firms find it profitable to fix wages, and doing so is good for worker welfare and resource allocation in equilibrium. (JEL E24, E32, J31, J42, J63, J64, M52)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135783908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing the Gains from E-Commerce 评估电子商务的收益
1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210049
Paul Dolfen, Liran Einav, Peter J. Klenow, Benjamin Klopack, Jonathan Levin, Laurence Levin, Wayne Best
{"title":"Assessing the Gains from E-Commerce","authors":"Paul Dolfen, Liran Einav, Peter J. Klenow, Benjamin Klopack, Jonathan Levin, Laurence Levin, Wayne Best","doi":"10.1257/mac.20210049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210049","url":null,"abstract":"E-commerce represents a rapidly growing share of consumer spending in the United States. We use transactions-level data on credit and debit cards from Visa, Inc. between 2007 and 2017 to quantify the resulting consumer surplus. We estimate e-commerce reached 8 percent of consumption by 2017, yielding the equivalent of a 1 percent boost to their consumption, or over $1,000 per household per year. While some of the gains arose from avoiding travel costs to local merchants, most of the gains stemmed from substituting to merchants available online but not locally. Higher income consumers gained more, as did consumers in more densely populated counties. (JEL D12, E21, G51, L81, L86)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136297320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
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