中国城乡人口迁移、结构转型与住房市场

IF 6.3 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI:10.1257/mac.20160142

Carlos Garriga, Yang Tang, Ping Wang

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引用次数: 4

摘要

本文通过一个以人口迁移和丰富的住房市场结构为特征的动态空间均衡模型，考察了城市化、结构转型与2000年后中国住房繁荣之间的相互关系。城市化和结构转型成为中国房价飙升的主要驱动力，而与此同时，房价上涨阻碍了这些经济转型的力量。促进城市化的政策可能会因内生价格反应而失效。土地供应扩张改善了这种负反馈。总体而言，房地产市场有力地塑造了经济发展的道路。(jel e23, o18, p23, p25, r23, r31, r58)

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Rural-Urban Migration, Structural Transformation, and Housing Markets in China

This paper investigates the interrelationship between urbanization, structural transformation, and the post-2000 Chinese housing boom through the lens of a dynamic spatial equilibrium model that features migration and a rich housing market structure with mortgages. Urbanization and structural transformation emerge as key drivers of China's house price boom, while at the same time rising house prices impede these forces of economic transition. Policies to boost urbanization can be undone by the endogenous price response. Land supply expansion ameliorates this negative feedback. Overall, housing markets powerfully shape the path of economic development. (JEL E23, O18, P23, P25, R23, R31, R58)

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来源期刊

American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

8.20

自引率

1.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics focuses on studies of aggregate fluctuations and growth, and the role of policy in that context. Such studies often borrow from and interact with research in other fields, such as monetary theory, industrial organization, finance, labor economics, political economy, public finance, international economics, and development economics. To the extent that they make a contribution to macroeconomics, papers in these fields are also welcome.