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Structural changes in the Brazilian economy 1990–2015 1990年至2015年巴西经济的结构变化
IF 2.5 4区 经济学
Economic Systems Research Pub Date : 2020-09-23 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1802234
J. F. S. Sousa Filho, G. F. Santos, Luiz Carlos de Santana Ribeiro
{"title":"Structural changes in the Brazilian economy 1990–2015","authors":"J. F. S. Sousa Filho, G. F. Santos, Luiz Carlos de Santana Ribeiro","doi":"10.1080/09535314.2020.1802234","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2020.1802234","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses the structural changes in the Brazilian economy from 1990 to 2015 by applying structural decomposition analysis (SDA). The production structure of emerging economies is an important field of research because it enables the assessment of sectoral policies and technological progress to support sustained economic growth in the long-term. The investigation described here was conducted using input–output matrices for a short and long-term analysis which enabled us to verify the importance of twelve aggregate sectors regarding changes in production, final demand and technological coefficients. This topic could be used for such analyses in any other country. The results indicate that the production structure of Brazilian economy remains fragile and dependent on demand shocks for its growth. Furthermore, manufacturing industry remains the major sector capable of promoting structural changes in production.","PeriodicalId":47760,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems Research","volume":"33 1","pages":"555 - 575"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2020-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/09535314.2020.1802234","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44976875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Weaponized trade policy: the impact of US tariffs on the European automobile sector 武器化贸易政策：美国关税对欧洲汽车行业的影响
IF 2.5 4区 经济学
Economic Systems Research Pub Date : 2020-09-07 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1804330
Carlos Llano, Julián Pérez, Fátima El Khatabi, F. Steinberg
{"title":"Weaponized trade policy: the impact of US tariffs on the European automobile sector","authors":"Carlos Llano, Julián Pérez, Fátima El Khatabi, F. Steinberg","doi":"10.1080/09535314.2020.1804330","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2020.1804330","url":null,"abstract":"With trade tensions running high, the Trump Administration is considering new tariffs on imported automobiles, and the main target would be the European Union, traditionally America’s closest ally. In this paper we combine disaggregated models to estimate the impact of these tariffs worldwide, and especially on Spain. First, a trade-policy simulation model computes the potential effects worldwide. Then we plug these into the World Input–Output Database, obtaining the inter-sectoral effects of the tariffs on Europe and the rest of the world. Finally, we insert these results into the Spanish inter-regional Input–Output Tables, obtaining final effects for Spanish regions via their inter-sectoral relations with the European Union and the rest of the world. By our calculation, the new US auto tariffs could end up destroying 10,400 jobs in Spain alone and 567,000 jobs worldwide. Moreover, they might have unexpected consequences, affecting, Spanish regions and sectors that just indirectly depend on the automobile industry.","PeriodicalId":47760,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems Research","volume":"33 1","pages":"287 - 315"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2020-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/09535314.2020.1804330","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49498500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
The role of rurality in determining the economy-wide impacts of a natural disaster 农村在决定自然灾害对整个经济的影响方面的作用
IF 2.5 4区 经济学
Economic Systems Research Pub Date : 2020-09-06 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1814206
A. Bonfiglio, S. Coderoni, R. Esposti, E. Baldoni
{"title":"The role of rurality in determining the economy-wide impacts of a natural disaster","authors":"A. Bonfiglio, S. Coderoni, R. Esposti, E. Baldoni","doi":"10.1080/09535314.2020.1814206","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2020.1814206","url":null,"abstract":"Rural areas may be highly vulnerable to natural disasters because of their lower economic diversification and a higher incidence of sectors that may suffer from a larger impact produced by these adverse events. In addition, because of their trade dependence, local effects can be transmitted to neighbouring regions more diffusely so amplifying total impacts. This paper aims to quantify the economy-wide impacts generated by the earthquake sequence that mostly hit a markedly rural area of Central Italy in 2016–2017. To this purpose, a non-linear programming model based on a multi-regional IO table with a mixed territorial scale is adopted. Results indicate that some negative effects are transmitted outside the seismic area and a few positive effects are also produced. Moreover, they confirm that rural areas are more vulnerable to disasters and that the effects of disasters in these areas are more likely to be transmitted to the neighbouring space.","PeriodicalId":47760,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems Research","volume":"33 1","pages":"446 - 469"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2020-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/09535314.2020.1814206","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43039688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
A multiregional input–output optimization model to assess impacts of water supply disruptions under climate change on the Great Lakes economy 评估气候变化下供水中断对大湖区经济影响的多区域投入产出优化模型
IF 2.5 4区 经济学
Economic Systems Research Pub Date : 2020-08-19 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1805414
J. Garcia-Hernandez, R. Brouwer
{"title":"A multiregional input–output optimization model to assess impacts of water supply disruptions under climate change on the Great Lakes economy","authors":"J. Garcia-Hernandez, R. Brouwer","doi":"10.1080/09535314.2020.1805414","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2020.1805414","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a water-restricted multi-regional input–output model to evaluate the economic impacts of water supply reductions in the Canadian Great Lakes Basin (GLB), one of the largest freshwater reservoirs in the world. The proposed model, first of its kind applied to the GLB, aims to minimize the impact of water supply disruptions on the GLB-economy, measured by the loss of GDP. A new flexible economic optimization procedure is introduced, capable of imposing resource constraints and ensuring minimal supply levels for intermediate and final consumption at the same time. The model accounts for inter-regional trade between different lake regions. The impacts of two climate change scenarios on water security and the economy are investigated, with and without additional food and energy security restrictions. The proposed economic optimization model holds promise as a new tool for resource-restricted Input–Output analyses.","PeriodicalId":47760,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems Research","volume":"33 1","pages":"509 - 535"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2020-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/09535314.2020.1805414","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45620148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Defining prices in an inter-regional SAM system 在区域间地空资产管理系统中定义价格
IF 2.5 4区 经济学
Economic Systems Research Pub Date : 2020-08-18 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1804331
M. Llop
{"title":"Defining prices in an inter-regional SAM system","authors":"M. Llop","doi":"10.1080/09535314.2020.1804331","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2020.1804331","url":null,"abstract":"The literature of inter-regional social accounting matrices (SAM) focuses on quantity-oriented models that determine the transmission of income impacts. This paper develops a price version to identify the channels of price transmission at the inter-regional (or inter-country) level. The method proposed divides the total multiplier effects into intra-regional price multipliers (i.e. the cost impacts within a region), open loop inter-regional price multipliers (i.e. the cost impacts from one region on another by quantifying all the within-region impacts), and closed loop inter-regional price multipliers (i.e. the circular cost impacts transiting through the accounts in the other region and returning to the starting region). In addition, the intra-regional multipliers are divided into the intra-account, the inter-account and the cross-account (circular) effects. The empirical application, which uses a bi-regional SAM that distinguishes the United States (USA) and China (CHN), highlights the importance of the within-region interdependences for explaining price impacts.","PeriodicalId":47760,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems Research","volume":"33 1","pages":"492 - 508"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2020-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/09535314.2020.1804331","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46753127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Flow-of-funds structure of the U.S. economy 2001–2018 2001-2008年美国经济的资金流动结构
IF 2.5 4区 经济学
Economic Systems Research Pub Date : 2020-07-27 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1795629
Masako Tsujimura, Kazusuke Tsujimura
{"title":"Flow-of-funds structure of the U.S. economy 2001–2018","authors":"Masako Tsujimura, Kazusuke Tsujimura","doi":"10.1080/09535314.2020.1795629","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2020.1795629","url":null,"abstract":"Great inventions and substantial productivity growth of the Roaring Twenties brought unprecedented prosperity to the United States. After Black Thursday in the fall of 1929 however, the U.S. economic landscape changed dramatically. To ensure that the bitter experience of the Great Depression does not recur, Wesley Mitchell and Morris Copeland, the architects of flow-of-funds analysis, urged a better understanding of the circulation of funds, the means of payment. The new century has so far brought us many technological innovations and new ways of doing business. The objective of the paper is to find out if and how well the funds have been flowing in the U.S. economy over the past two decades, using the flow-of-funds matrix (payer-payee matrix) proposed by Tsujimura and Tsujimura ([2018]. A flow of funds analysis of the U.S. quantitative easing. Economic Systems Research, 30(2), 137–177. https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2018.1443908). The industrial revolution of the new century does not seem to have enough momentum circulating funds, the lifeblood of the economy.","PeriodicalId":47760,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems Research","volume":"33 1","pages":"385 - 416"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2020-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/09535314.2020.1795629","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44910895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Constructing an open access economy-wide database for bioeconomy impact assessment in the European Union member states 构建开放获取的欧盟成员国生物经济影响评估经济数据库
IF 2.5 4区 经济学
Economic Systems Research Pub Date : 2020-07-27 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1785848
Alfredo J. Mainar‐Causapé, G. Philippidis, A. Sanjuán-López
{"title":"Constructing an open access economy-wide database for bioeconomy impact assessment in the European Union member states","authors":"Alfredo J. Mainar‐Causapé, G. Philippidis, A. Sanjuán-López","doi":"10.1080/09535314.2020.1785848","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2020.1785848","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The bioeconomy encompasses the extraction, processing and transformation of renewable biological resources and waste streams, connected to activities as diverse as food, feed, energy and manufacturing. Under the auspices of the European Union’s ‘Green Deal' strategy, this broad collective of sectors is promoted as a cornerstone for achieving sustainable growth. Progress in developing ex-ante tools of economy-wide modelling analysis to assess its performance is, however, hindered by a paucity of consistent and comprehensive data. To overcome this shortcoming, the construction steps for a new set of open access social accounting matrices (dubbed ‘BioSAMs’) is described for a detailed and comprehensive selection of traditional and contemporary bio-based accounts for each of the EU member states. To illustrate its potential, a structural analysis based on three different and complementary methods (Rasmussen-Jones, hypothetical extraction method and eigenvector) is performed to classify bio-based sector wealth generating properties and to identify high performance (‘key') sectors.","PeriodicalId":47760,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems Research","volume":"33 1","pages":"133 - 156"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2020-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/09535314.2020.1785848","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43270956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
David Hawkins and the making of the Hawkins-Simon conditions 大卫·霍金斯和霍金-西蒙条件的形成
IF 2.5 4区 经济学
Economic Systems Research Pub Date : 2020-07-25 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1794799
Wilfried Parys
{"title":"David Hawkins and the making of the Hawkins-Simon conditions","authors":"Wilfried Parys","doi":"10.1080/09535314.2020.1794799","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2020.1794799","url":null,"abstract":"The Hawkins-Simon conditions, which are necessary and sufficient for the viability of input–output systems, are described in many encyclopedias, textbooks and papers, but always without historical details about the philosopher David Hawkins. The rich literature on the history of input–output economics has neglected Hawkins, probably because he spent only a few years among the economists. My paper fills this gap. By using the relevant archival material on Hawkins, Simon, and Leontief, I correct and expand some scarce remarks on Hawkins by Simon and Samuelson. I discuss Hawkins’s three remarkable contributions to economics. First, Hawkins’s dynamic input–output model in Econometrica in 1948 scooped Leontief. Second, I show how the correspondence between Hawkins and Simon created their famous joint note in Econometrica in 1949. Third, an overlooked chapter in Hawkins’s 1964 book The Language of Nature discussed the commodity values of commodities, generalizing Marx’s labour values and the Technocrats's energy values.","PeriodicalId":47760,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems Research","volume":"33 1","pages":"363 - 384"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2020-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/09535314.2020.1794799","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48680534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Uncertainty measures for economic accounts 经济账户的不确定性度量
IF 2.5 4区 经济学
Economic Systems Research Pub Date : 2020-07-22 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1792843
N. Mushkudiani, J. Pannekoek, Li‐Chun Zhang
{"title":"Uncertainty measures for economic accounts","authors":"N. Mushkudiani, J. Pannekoek, Li‐Chun Zhang","doi":"10.1080/09535314.2020.1792843","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2020.1792843","url":null,"abstract":"The problem of adjusting large systems of estimated economic or social accounts such that they fulfill known functional relationships can be quite complex. For such complex systems, evaluating the accuracy of the estimates after the adjustment is difficult since these estimates are defined by unadjusted initial estimates, the accounting equations and the adjustment method. In this paper, we consider such accounting systems as a single entity and develop scalar uncertainty measures that are based on the first two moments of the joint distribution of final adjusted estimates. Scalar measures can help to effectively communicate to the users the relevant uncertainty of disseminated macro-economic accounts and can assist the producer in choosing and improving adjustment method and input estimators. The proposed approach is illustrated both analytically and by simulation. Applications to supply and use tables and to time series data are presented.","PeriodicalId":47760,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems Research","volume":"32 1","pages":"476 - 501"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2020-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/09535314.2020.1792843","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48680939","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Evaluating the impact of violence against women in the macroeconomic Input–Output framework 在宏观经济投入产出框架中评估暴力侵害妇女行为的影响
IF 2.5 4区 经济学
Economic Systems Research Pub Date : 2020-07-16 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1790505
C. Ciaschini, F. Chelli
{"title":"Evaluating the impact of violence against women in the macroeconomic Input–Output framework","authors":"C. Ciaschini, F. Chelli","doi":"10.1080/09535314.2020.1790505","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2020.1790505","url":null,"abstract":"Violence against women and girls (VAW&G) has progressively become an emergency issue in many European countries and a relevant topic of public discussion. In this paper, we attempt to insert this theme within a model for macroeconomic policy design and evaluation. Special attention is devoted to the assessment of distortions in the allocation of public expenditure generated by VAW&G, in terms of gains and losses in aggregate total output. We adopt a macroeconomic input–output approach by adding to the framework an industry that produces care services to victims of VAW&G. The resulting model is integrated with the public expenditure reallocations that emerge as a result of the progressive elimination of violence. It is, thus, a simulation tool for determining total output gains or losses that emerge from the reallocation of public expenditures as VAW&G fades.","PeriodicalId":47760,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems Research","volume":"33 1","pages":"214 - 249"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2020-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/09535314.2020.1790505","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41436787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
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