African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement最新文献_第5页

Growth, fiscal and welfare implications of trade liberalization in Africa: A macro-micro modeling assessment of the Senegalese economy 非洲贸易自由化对增长、财政和福利的影响：塞内加尔经济的宏观-微观模型评估

IF 2.9 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2024-01-07 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.12730

Mariam Amadou Diallo, Marijke D'Haese, Jeroen Buysse

{"title":"Growth, fiscal and welfare implications of trade liberalization in Africa: A macro-micro modeling assessment of the Senegalese economy","authors":"Mariam Amadou Diallo, Marijke D'Haese, Jeroen Buysse","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.12730","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8268.12730","url":null,"abstract":"The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has been hailed as a key pillar and catalyst for economic growth, industrialization, and sustainable development in Africa. One of the anticipated benefits is the promise to increase intra-African trade through the elimination of import duties and other tariffs among countries. However, due to the heterogeneity between the African countries, questions remain as to whether each country will benefit from tariff elimination. This paper aims to evaluate the macroeconomic, fiscal, and welfare consequences of import tax removal in Senegal with the rest of Africa. We link an extended version of the partnership for economic policy (PEP) static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a non-parametric microsimulation approach. We calibrate the model with Senegal's most recent Social Accounting Matrix. The microeconomic model is calibrated using the latest Senegalese household consumption survey. The findings indicate that tariff removal from the rest of Africa has favorable economic, fiscal, and welfare impacts for Senegal. The paper suggests that it will lead to an increase in economic growth and investment. The removal of tariffs is expected to favor urban households over rural ones and leads to a modest decrease in income inequality, accompanied by a 3.36% reduction in the number of poor.","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139448957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Government expenditure, informality, and economic growth: Evidence from Eastern and Southern African countries 政府支出、非正规性和经济增长：东部和南部非洲国家的证据

IF 2.9 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2024-01-04 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.12729

Joseph Mawejje

{"title":"Government expenditure, informality, and economic growth: Evidence from Eastern and Southern African countries","authors":"Joseph Mawejje","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.12729","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8268.12729","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the dynamic linkages among government expenditure, informality, and economic growth in 15 Eastern and Southern African countries over a 25-year period during 1991–2015. The analysis exploits panel vector autoregressive models to construct the time path of one variable following an orthogonal shock to another variable using impulse response functions. The analysis is complemented by panel quantile regressions to investigate the potential role of informality in the expenditure–economic growth nexus. The findings are threefold. First, both government consumption and investment expenditure have positive and significant effects on real per capita GDP. Second, informality has a direct negative impact on real per capita GDP. Third, the informal sector dampens the impact of government expenditure on real per capita GDP. These results are robust to the inclusion of selected control variables and are unchanged across GDP quantiles. The study's findings suggest that government policies aimed at reducing informality can have direct impacts on economic growth and indirect impacts through improvements in the effectiveness of government expenditure.","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139385635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Asymmetric effect of environmental tax on CO2 emissions embodied in domestic final demand in South Africa: A NARDL approach 环境税对南非国内最终需求所体现的二氧化碳排放量的不对称影响：NARDL 方法

IF 2.9 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2023-12-29 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.12727

Godwin Imo Ibe, Hillary Chijindu Ezeaku, Itiri Idam Okpara, Eze Festus Eze, Ebele Igwemeka, Obinna Ubani

{"title":"Asymmetric effect of environmental tax on CO2 emissions embodied in domestic final demand in South Africa: A NARDL approach","authors":"Godwin Imo Ibe, Hillary Chijindu Ezeaku, Itiri Idam Okpara, Eze Festus Eze, Ebele Igwemeka, Obinna Ubani","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.12727","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8268.12727","url":null,"abstract":"Motivated by the pressing need to address environmental concerns, this study explores the relationship between environmental taxes and CO2 emissions embodied in domestic final demand in South Africa. The study uses a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to analyse the asymmetric impact of environmental taxes. Results indicate that environmental taxes have an asymmetric impact on CO2 emissions embodied in domestic final demand in both the short and long runs. Specifically, both positive and negative shifts in environmental taxes are linked with a respective 0.06% decrease and a more pronounced 0.22% decrease in CO2 emissions embodied in domestic final demand. Moreover, positive shocks in the GDP growth rate are associated with an approximately 0.002% uptick in CO2 emissions, while negative shocks lead to a 0.012% decrease. Additionally, both positive and negative shocks in population growth exhibit a significant positive correlation with the response variable. The baseline estimates demonstrate that the joint effect of environmental taxes and the GDP growth rate is correlated with reductions in CO2 emissions embodied in domestic final demand. Similarly, the joint influence of environmental taxes and population growth rate is linked to declines in CO2 emissions. The study highlights the practical policy implications of these findings.","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139144046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Trade–peace conundrum in Africa: The moderating effects of poverty and inequality 非洲的贸易和平难题:贫困和不平等的缓和效应

2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.12716

Hauwah K. K. Abdulkareem, Sodiq Olaiwola Jimoh, Ebenezer Olubiyi

{"title":"Trade–peace conundrum in Africa: The moderating effects of poverty and inequality","authors":"Hauwah K. K. Abdulkareem, Sodiq Olaiwola Jimoh, Ebenezer Olubiyi","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.12716","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12716","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper examines the trade–peace nexus in Africa and ascertains how poverty and inequality tilt the relationship in the eight regional (economic) blocs in Africa, viz. the Arab Maghreb Union (UMA), the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the Community of Sahel–Saharan States (CEN–SAD), the East African Community (EAC), the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), from 1998 to 2020 using the Driscoll–Kraay estimate. The study contributes to the literature by disaggregating the peace effect of trade in Africa by the regional (economic) blocs to allow for in‐depth and context‐specific analysis. The paper also expands the scope of existing studies by examining the direct effect of poverty and inequality on peace in addition to the indirect effect that is revealed through their interactions with trade integrations. The findings reveal that trade promotes peace in Africa, while wide income inequality and a large poverty gap increase the likelihood of conflict. The interaction of poverty and inequality with trade integration shows that while the poverty level does not improve the effect of trade on peace, inequality reduces the impact of trade on peace. The study concludes that poverty and inequality play significant roles in the trade–peace nexus in Africa. Policy recommendations are discussed.","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136352023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

L'impact de la crise russo‐ukrainienne sur les marchés financiers africains 俄罗斯-乌克兰危机对非洲金融市场的影响

2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2023-11-08 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.12719

Florent Kanga Gbongue, Cyrille Gueï Okou, Cédric Mbeng Mezui

{"title":"L'impact de la crise russo‐ukrainienne sur les marchés financiers africains","authors":"Florent Kanga Gbongue, Cyrille Gueï Okou, Cédric Mbeng Mezui","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.12719","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12719","url":null,"abstract":"Résumé Les effets de la crise russo‐ukrainienne sur le capital‐risque marché au sens de Bâle II/III, sont quantifiés pour près de 87% de la capitalisation boursière du continent. Notre méthodologie combine le modèle ARMA‐GJR‐GARCH, la théorie des valeurs extrêmes (TVE), la théorie des copules et la simulation, afin de capter les distributions conditionnelles des rendements. Nos résultats révèlent que la crise russo‐ukrainienne constitue un facteur de risque important pour les marchés financiers africains, en ce sens que l'on observe une augmentation des capitaux à risque en période de crise T2 (2022–2023), de l'ordre de 1% à 18% en référence à la distribution normale. Toutefois, l'effet additionnel de cette crise, de l'ordre de 0,05% à 15,07%, est évalué comparativement aux résultats de la période de référence T1 (2017–2019). A cet effet, cette étude plaide pour des mesures visant à atténuer le risque de marché, notamment la diversification des produits financiers et instruments de couverture, ainsi que le renforcement de la base des investisseurs locaux, qui participe à la stabilité des marchés financiers africains.","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135345305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Technologies de l'Information et de la Communication et exportation des entreprises manufacturières en Afrique Centrale 中非的信息和通信技术和制造业出口

2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2023-11-06 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.12718

Ariel Herbert Fambeu, Patricia Tchawa Yomi

引用次数: 0

Does social media drive remittances in Africa? 社交媒体推动了非洲的汇款吗?

2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2023-10-30 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.12717

Bruno Emmanuel Ongo Nkoa, Jacques Simon Song, Blaise Ondoua Beyene, Georges Ngnouwal Eloundou

引用次数: 0

Vaccination, treatment and containment policy to reduce the effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic in Morocco 疫苗接种、治疗和遏制政策，以减少摩洛哥COVID - 19大流行的影响

2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.12714

Abdelhamid Moustabchir, Hicham Ouakil

引用次数: 0

Determinants of intra‐COMESA trade in services 东南非共同市场内部服务贸易的决定因素

2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2023-10-11 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.12715

Socrates K. Majune, Judy K. Kaaria, Evelyne N. Kihiu

{"title":"Determinants of intra‐COMESA trade in services","authors":"Socrates K. Majune, Judy K. Kaaria, Evelyne N. Kihiu","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.12715","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12715","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper analyzes intra‐Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) trade in services by establishing its determinants and exploring the role of trade facilitation on the same. The study relies on the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator of the gravity model on bilateral services trade data for total services and eight categories of services in 17 COMESA countries from 2005 to 2019. Results reveal that several factors determine intra‐COMESA services trade, the salient ones being GDP (exporter's and importer's), distance, contiguity, and time zone differences. Trading under a service‐specific trade agreement affects a few services: transport and other business services exports. The effect is positive for transport services and negative for other business services exports. Trade facilitation measures, especially broadband technologies, significantly improve services trade across various sectors. A key policy implication of our results is that service trade is more likely to grow through digital, information, and communication infrastructure development. Thus, policy should prioritize increasing access and usage of broadband technologies.","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136213441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Technological advancement and regulatory quality 技术进步和监管质量

2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2023-10-08 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.12713

Jiahao Shen, Runze Liu, Yanling Lin, Ridwan Lanre Ibrahim

引用次数: 0