African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement最新文献

Decentralized Cooperation and the Future of African Regional Development: What Public Policies to Bridge the Territorial Gap? 分权合作与非洲区域发展的未来：何种公共政策可以弥合地域差距？

IF 2.1 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2026-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70079

Jamaa Lamkies, Mohammed Kehel

{"title":"Decentralized Cooperation and the Future of African Regional Development: What Public Policies to Bridge the Territorial Gap?","authors":"Jamaa Lamkies, Mohammed Kehel","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.70079","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.70079","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper examines whether decentralized cooperation (DC) is associated with lower territorial inequality in Africa and under what institutional conditions. We develop a conditional decentralization framework that distinguishes DC from fiscal decentralization and test it using a balanced panel of 38 African countries from 2000 to 2022. Two-way fixed-effects models are complemented by restricted two-step System GMM and spatial specifications. In the preferred fixed-effects model, a 1-percentage-point increase in DC intensity is associated with a 0.00142 decline in the regional Gini (0–1 scale), about 0.32% of the sample mean. The association becomes stronger as governance improves and is statistically distinguishable from zero above an estimated CPIA threshold of about 3.0. Spatial estimates are also consistent with positive cross-border spillovers. Robustness checks using alternative governance measures, subsamples, inequality measures, index weights, and placebo specifications support the direction of the findings. The results suggest that DC should be embedded in formal national frameworks, paired with governance safeguards and administrative capacity-building, and coordinated through cross-border municipal clusters where spillovers may arise. Because the DC proxy is based mainly on subnational official development assistance, the estimates should be read as directional rather than definitive causal magnitudes.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":"38 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149145665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exchange Rate Dynamics and Growth Trajectories in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Longitudinal Panel Study (1995–2023) 撒哈拉以南非洲的汇率动态和增长轨迹：纵向面板研究（1995-2023）

IF 2.1 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2026-09-30 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70078

Wogene Markos Dumo

{"title":"Exchange Rate Dynamics and Growth Trajectories in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Longitudinal Panel Study (1995–2023)","authors":"Wogene Markos Dumo","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.70078","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.70078","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study investigates the impact of real exchange rate levels and volatility on economic growth across 26 Sub-Saharan African nations from 1995 to 2023, using a balanced panel with fixed effects and system GMM estimators. Excluding countries where GARCH(1,1) models failed to converge, the analysis employs extensive robustness checks including alternative volatility measures, external instruments, and cross-sectional dependence tests. The findings reveal that real appreciation and heightened volatility significantly impede growth: a 10% appreciation reduces annual GDP growth by 0.6–0.8 percentage points, while a one-standard-deviation rise in volatility lowers it by approximately 0.4 percentage points (<i>p</i> < 0.05). Investment and trade openness promote growth, whereas inflation exerts a strong negative effect. These results validate the competitiveness, uncertainty, and asymmetric channels. Policy implications emphasize maintaining competitive and stable real exchange rates through managed floats with active sterilized intervention. The analysis confirms that monetary policy effectiveness and reserve buffers are conditional on financial depth, suggesting policymakers must carefully balance competitiveness with stability through refined monetary policy and targeted foreign exchange interventions.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":"38 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Capital Account Openness, Institutional Quality and European FDI: Empirical Evidence From North Africa 资本账户开放、制度质量与欧洲FDI：来自北非的经验证据

IF 2.1 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2026-09-30 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70080

Mahdi Mnasri

{"title":"Capital Account Openness, Institutional Quality and European FDI: Empirical Evidence From North Africa","authors":"Mahdi Mnasri","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.70080","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.70080","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper analyzes the role of capital account openness and institutional quality in attracting European foreign direct investment (FDI) to North Africa over the period 2009–2023. Relying on a panel of five countries and instrumental-variable estimations using the two-stage least squares (2SLS-IV) method, the study shows that financial liberalization can foster FDI inflows only when it is supported by a strong and credible institutional environment. The results indicate that institutional dimensions related to economic and legal governance play a central role in transforming capital account openness into an effective driver of European FDI. By contrast, financial development and trade openness are associated with negative effects, suggesting that, in institutionally imperfect contexts, these mechanisms may act as substitutes rather than complements to foreign capital inflows. Robustness checks confirm the stability of the main results, while also indicating that the interaction effect between financial openness and institutional quality is sensitive to the estimation strategy. Overall, the findings suggest that FDI-attraction strategies based solely on financial liberalization are insufficient. Instead, they suggest that institutional strengthening may constitute an important precondition for achieving a beneficial and sustainable integration into international financial markets, although the estimated interaction effect remains sensitive to the econometric specification.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":"38 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Effect of Corporate Governance on Profitability of Firms Listed in Nigeria 公司治理对尼日利亚上市公司盈利能力的影响

IF 2.1 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2026-09-23 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70077

Akinlolu Adekunle Akinwumi

{"title":"Effect of Corporate Governance on Profitability of Firms Listed in Nigeria","authors":"Akinlolu Adekunle Akinwumi","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.70077","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.70077","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study investigates the impact of corporate governance mechanisms on the profitability of firms listed on the Nigerian Exchange, focusing on the NGX 30 Index over the period 2014–2023. Profitability is measured by Return on Equity (ROE), while the governance attributes comprise board independence, gender diversity, board meeting frequency, institutional investor presence, and governance nomination and remuneration and risk management committee sizes. Audit quality is included as a control variable. The study employs the Mundlak Correlated Random Effects (CRE) approach to account for potential endogeneity arising from the correlation between time-invariant unobserved firm-specific characteristics and the explanatory variables, while distinguishing within-firm from between-firm effects. The results indicate that board independence has a significant positive effect on ROE, whereas gender diversity has a significant negative effect. Governance nomination and remuneration committee size exhibits a marginally negative effect, while board meeting frequency, institutional investor presence, and other governance attributes are statistically insignificant. The findings suggest that independent monitoring may enhance firm performance in Nigeria, whereas greater board diversity or committee size does not necessarily translate into higher profitability. The study provides evidence relevant to regulators and corporate stakeholders seeking to optimize governance structures and enhance shareholder value.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":"38 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149014615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Appreciation to Article Reviewers 感谢文章审稿人

IF 2.1 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2026-09-16 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70076

引用次数: 0

Artificial Intelligence Readiness and Productive Capacity in Africa: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis 非洲人工智能准备和生产能力：一项跨国实证分析

IF 2.1 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2026-09-09 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70074

Siyuan Huang, Mukadaz Taofeeq Ishola, Kazeem Bello Ajide

{"title":"Artificial Intelligence Readiness and Productive Capacity in Africa: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis","authors":"Siyuan Huang, Mukadaz Taofeeq Ishola, Kazeem Bello Ajide","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.70074","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.70074","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Artificial intelligence (AI) is widely viewed as an enabling technology for structural transformation, but national AI readiness does not automatically translate into productive capability. This study examines the conditional association between AI readiness and productive capacity in 45 African countries over 2018–2024, using the Oxford Insights Government AI Readiness Index. The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) is the principal outcome; the UNCTAD Productive Capacity Index (PCI) serves only as a robustness measure given conceptual overlap with the enabling conditions examined here. Dynamic System-GMM addresses persistence and endogeneity, complemented by fixed-effects, bias-corrected LSDV, collapsed-instrument, and restrictive-lag checks. Results show a positive conditional association between AI readiness and economic complexity, strengthening where human capital and electricity access are more favourable; the institutional interaction is less robust once fully specified. Estimated turning points are sample-specific, not universal thresholds. Because internal instruments cannot fully resolve reverse causality or omitted structural change, the study does not claim a causal effect. Instead, the evidence supports a conversion perspective: AI readiness is more likely to accompany productive sophistication where complementary capabilities are sufficiently developed. The paper contributes an empirically grounded country typology and policy implications for sequencing AI strategy alongside human-capital, energy, and governance investment.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":"38 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148942820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Macroeconomic Volatility and Inclusive Sustainable Development in Africa 非洲宏观经济波动与包容性可持续发展

IF 2.1 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2026-09-07 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70073

Bing Xie, Kazeem Bello Ajide, Olumide Agbetoye

{"title":"Macroeconomic Volatility and Inclusive Sustainable Development in Africa","authors":"Bing Xie, Kazeem Bello Ajide, Olumide Agbetoye","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.70073","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.70073","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Macroeconomic volatility can weaken the inclusiveness and sustainability of development outcomes, yet its implications for Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) performance remain underexplored in Africa. Previous studies focus largely on volatility–growth or volatility–inequality relationships, with limited attention to the joint effects of macroeconomic instability and inequality on sustainable development. This study examines these relationships using an unbalanced panel of 44 African countries from 2000 to 2022. To better capture inclusiveness, an inequality-adjusted SDG index (ISDG) is constructed alongside the conventional SDG Index (SDGI). Macroeconomic volatility is measured through fluctuations in inflation, output growth, government expenditure, and exchange rates. The analysis employs two-way fixed-effects estimation, complemented by interaction models and robustness checks using Driscoll–Kraay, correlated random-effects, and System GMM estimators. Results show that inflation volatility is consistently associated with lower inclusive sustainable development, while income inequality exerts a strong, persistent negative association and amplifies inflation volatility's adverse effect. These findings remain stable across alternative inequality-adjustment formulas and the conventional SDGI. Subgroup estimates show that the negative association between inflation volatility and sustainable development is significantly stronger in resource-dependent economies. The paper concludes with policy implications for fiscal authorities, central banks, and regional institutions combining macroeconomic stabilisation with inequality reduction.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":"38 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148942573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Does Stability Matter More Than Spending? Public Investment Volatility, State Capacity, and Structural Transformation in Africa 稳定比开支更重要吗？非洲的公共投资波动、国家能力和结构转型

IF 2.1 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2026-08-26 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70072

Xianming Pan, Victor Oluwatayo Babalola, Kazeem Bello Ajide

{"title":"Does Stability Matter More Than Spending? Public Investment Volatility, State Capacity, and Structural Transformation in Africa","authors":"Xianming Pan, Victor Oluwatayo Babalola, Kazeem Bello Ajide","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.70072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.70072","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>While public investment is widely regarded as a catalyst for structural transformation, far less attention has been devoted to whether the stability of such investment matters as much as its magnitude. This study examines the relationship between public investment volatility, state capacity and structural transformation in Africa using an unbalanced panel of 46 countries covering 2000–2023. Employing Fixed Effects, Driscoll–Kraay, Correlated Random Effects, System-GMM and panel threshold estimators, the analysis distinguishes between the effects of public investment levels and fluctuations in investment expenditure. The results indicate that public investment volatility is negatively associated with structural transformation, whereas public investment levels exhibit a positive association. State capacity emerges as an important conditioning factor, with the adverse association between investment volatility and structural transformation becoming significantly weaker in countries characterised by stronger institutional capacity. Threshold estimates further reveal that the relationship varies across institutional regimes, while regional analyses indicate stronger associations in Central, West and East Africa. The findings underscore the importance of investment stability alongside investment scale and suggest that capable state institutions play a critical role in supporting Africa's structural transformation process.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":"38 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148849059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Access to Wealth, Regional Variations, and Child Healthcare Utilization in a Developing Country: New Insights From Nigeria 发展中国家的财富获取、地区差异和儿童医疗保健利用：来自尼日利亚的新见解

IF 2.1 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2026-08-18 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70070

Anthony Orji, Celine Onyinyechi Obochi, Onyinye Imelda Anthony-Orji, Jonathan Emenike Ogbuabor, Obukohwo Oba Efayena, Moses Odumu, Ituma Ezichi, Juliana Ngozi Obiorah, Ndubuisi Isaac, Chinonso Akudo Okoro

{"title":"Access to Wealth, Regional Variations, and Child Healthcare Utilization in a Developing Country: New Insights From Nigeria","authors":"Anthony Orji, Celine Onyinyechi Obochi, Onyinye Imelda Anthony-Orji, Jonathan Emenike Ogbuabor, Obukohwo Oba Efayena, Moses Odumu, Ituma Ezichi, Juliana Ngozi Obiorah, Ndubuisi Isaac, Chinonso Akudo Okoro","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.70070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.70070","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Increasing health issues and rising poverty rates in Nigeria have adversely impacted child health care utilization. This study X-rays the wealth access and regional variations nexus in child healthcare utilization. The generalized linear model (GLM) approach and the concentration index were adopted, employing data elicited from the Nigeria demographic and health survey (NDHS) conducted in 2008 and 2018. The study identified a substantial variation in child healthcare utilization among households with varying wealth access levels, implying that as households' access to wealth increases, inequality in healthcare utilization reduces among children. Regional analysis shows that the northeast and northwest geopolitical zones exhibited a higher prevalence in child healthcare utilization inequality, due to distinct socioeconomic status, cultural, and religious practices. The study therefore recommends that to support and maintain the initiatives for health system reform, a communication plan and an efficient regionally based health management information system must be created. Again, to increase child healthcare accessibility and utilization, such programmes should include a thorough health promotion strategy that raises awareness and provides relevant education to low-income households.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":"38 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148784143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Second-Round Effects, Inflation Persistence and Chaotic Dynamics: Implications for Transition to Inflation Targeting in Nigeria 第二轮效应、通货膨胀持续性和混乱动态：尼日利亚向通货膨胀目标制过渡的启示

IF 2.1 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2026-08-09 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70071

Jamilu Iliyasu

{"title":"Second-Round Effects, Inflation Persistence and Chaotic Dynamics: Implications for Transition to Inflation Targeting in Nigeria","authors":"Jamilu Iliyasu","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.70071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.70071","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In January 2024, Nigeria switched to inflation targeting with the policy rate reaching a historical high. However, inflation remained elevated, reflecting persistence, uncertainty, second-round effects, and exchange rate depreciation. Thus, this study examines the implications of the interplay between inflation persistence, chaotic behaviour, and second-round effects for the newly adopted inflation-targeting regime. The study employs state-space vector autoregressive models, entropy, and multifractal spectrum. First, the results show that inflation persistence is high and has been increasing since 2016. Second, findings reveal that periods of high inflation persistence coincide with substantial second-round effects. Third, the analysis indicates that persistence is asymmetric across size and the inflation regimes. Finally, this study also observes complex chaotic behaviour and uncertainty in the inflation process. Overall, these findings suggest that the transition to inflation targeting may involve prolonged disinflation and substantial output costs if policy relies mainly on aggressive monetary tightening. Thus, the Central Bank should therefore monitor second-round effects and treat the estimated threshold as an early-warning indicator rather than an inflation target. Also, the bank may have to strengthen scenario-based forecasting and coordinate monetary actions with fiscal and supply-side measures addressing food, energy and exchange rate pressures.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":"38 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148753174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0