African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement最新文献

Does Stability Matter More Than Spending? Public Investment Volatility, State Capacity, and Structural Transformation in Africa 稳定比开支更重要吗？非洲的公共投资波动、国家能力和结构转型

IF 2.1 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2026-08-26 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70072

Xianming Pan, Victor Oluwatayo Babalola, Kazeem Bello Ajide

{"title":"Does Stability Matter More Than Spending? Public Investment Volatility, State Capacity, and Structural Transformation in Africa","authors":"Xianming Pan, Victor Oluwatayo Babalola, Kazeem Bello Ajide","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.70072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.70072","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>While public investment is widely regarded as a catalyst for structural transformation, far less attention has been devoted to whether the stability of such investment matters as much as its magnitude. This study examines the relationship between public investment volatility, state capacity and structural transformation in Africa using an unbalanced panel of 46 countries covering 2000–2023. Employing Fixed Effects, Driscoll–Kraay, Correlated Random Effects, System-GMM and panel threshold estimators, the analysis distinguishes between the effects of public investment levels and fluctuations in investment expenditure. The results indicate that public investment volatility is negatively associated with structural transformation, whereas public investment levels exhibit a positive association. State capacity emerges as an important conditioning factor, with the adverse association between investment volatility and structural transformation becoming significantly weaker in countries characterised by stronger institutional capacity. Threshold estimates further reveal that the relationship varies across institutional regimes, while regional analyses indicate stronger associations in Central, West and East Africa. The findings underscore the importance of investment stability alongside investment scale and suggest that capable state institutions play a critical role in supporting Africa's structural transformation process.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":"38 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148849059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Access to Wealth, Regional Variations, and Child Healthcare Utilization in a Developing Country: New Insights From Nigeria 发展中国家的财富获取、地区差异和儿童医疗保健利用：来自尼日利亚的新见解

IF 2.1 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2026-08-18 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70070

Anthony Orji, Celine Onyinyechi Obochi, Onyinye Imelda Anthony-Orji, Jonathan Emenike Ogbuabor, Obukohwo Oba Efayena, Moses Odumu, Ituma Ezichi, Juliana Ngozi Obiorah, Ndubuisi Isaac, Chinonso Akudo Okoro

{"title":"Access to Wealth, Regional Variations, and Child Healthcare Utilization in a Developing Country: New Insights From Nigeria","authors":"Anthony Orji, Celine Onyinyechi Obochi, Onyinye Imelda Anthony-Orji, Jonathan Emenike Ogbuabor, Obukohwo Oba Efayena, Moses Odumu, Ituma Ezichi, Juliana Ngozi Obiorah, Ndubuisi Isaac, Chinonso Akudo Okoro","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.70070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.70070","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Increasing health issues and rising poverty rates in Nigeria have adversely impacted child health care utilization. This study X-rays the wealth access and regional variations nexus in child healthcare utilization. The generalized linear model (GLM) approach and the concentration index were adopted, employing data elicited from the Nigeria demographic and health survey (NDHS) conducted in 2008 and 2018. The study identified a substantial variation in child healthcare utilization among households with varying wealth access levels, implying that as households' access to wealth increases, inequality in healthcare utilization reduces among children. Regional analysis shows that the northeast and northwest geopolitical zones exhibited a higher prevalence in child healthcare utilization inequality, due to distinct socioeconomic status, cultural, and religious practices. The study therefore recommends that to support and maintain the initiatives for health system reform, a communication plan and an efficient regionally based health management information system must be created. Again, to increase child healthcare accessibility and utilization, such programmes should include a thorough health promotion strategy that raises awareness and provides relevant education to low-income households.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":"38 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148784143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Second-Round Effects, Inflation Persistence and Chaotic Dynamics: Implications for Transition to Inflation Targeting in Nigeria 第二轮效应、通货膨胀持续性和混乱动态：尼日利亚向通货膨胀目标制过渡的启示

IF 2.1 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2026-08-09 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70071

Jamilu Iliyasu

{"title":"Second-Round Effects, Inflation Persistence and Chaotic Dynamics: Implications for Transition to Inflation Targeting in Nigeria","authors":"Jamilu Iliyasu","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.70071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.70071","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In January 2024, Nigeria switched to inflation targeting with the policy rate reaching a historical high. However, inflation remained elevated, reflecting persistence, uncertainty, second-round effects, and exchange rate depreciation. Thus, this study examines the implications of the interplay between inflation persistence, chaotic behaviour, and second-round effects for the newly adopted inflation-targeting regime. The study employs state-space vector autoregressive models, entropy, and multifractal spectrum. First, the results show that inflation persistence is high and has been increasing since 2016. Second, findings reveal that periods of high inflation persistence coincide with substantial second-round effects. Third, the analysis indicates that persistence is asymmetric across size and the inflation regimes. Finally, this study also observes complex chaotic behaviour and uncertainty in the inflation process. Overall, these findings suggest that the transition to inflation targeting may involve prolonged disinflation and substantial output costs if policy relies mainly on aggressive monetary tightening. Thus, the Central Bank should therefore monitor second-round effects and treat the estimated threshold as an early-warning indicator rather than an inflation target. Also, the bank may have to strengthen scenario-based forecasting and coordinate monetary actions with fiscal and supply-side measures addressing food, energy and exchange rate pressures.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":"38 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148753174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Economic Policy Uncertainty, Financial Soundness and Financial Stability in Ghana 加纳的经济政策不确定性、金融稳健性和金融稳定性

IF 2.1 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2026-07-22 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70069

Iddriss Askandir, Eric Amoo Bondzie

{"title":"Economic Policy Uncertainty, Financial Soundness and Financial Stability in Ghana","authors":"Iddriss Askandir, Eric Amoo Bondzie","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.70069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.70069","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The increasing interconnectedness of the global economy has highlighted the importance of global economic policy uncertainty, which has been shown to affect the stability of the banking sector worldwide. Despite extensive research on the nexus between economic policy uncertainty and bank stability, there remains limited understanding of how policy-variable-based uncertainty affects Ghana's banking industry. This study examines how policy-based economic uncertainty affects the financial soundness and stability of Ghana's banking industry, using monthly data from February 2008 to April 2023 for 13 listed banks. It develops a new economic uncertainty index and a financial soundness index for Ghana. Using the Heteroskedasticity Corrected Model, Ordinary Least Squares, Generalised Linear Model, and Quantile Regression models, the analysis shows that both policy-based and composite uncertainty indices have a significant negative effect on banking stability. The paper recommends that policymakers enhance fiscal and monetary consistency and that banks integrate these measures into risk management to strengthen financial resilience.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":"38 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148615566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Inflation at the Household Level: Evidence From Tunisia Using a Quantile Regression Model 家庭层面的通货膨胀：使用分位数回归模型的突尼斯证据

IF 2.1 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2026-07-06 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70068

Khaled Nasri, Mehdi Ben Braham

{"title":"Inflation at the Household Level: Evidence From Tunisia Using a Quantile Regression Model","authors":"Khaled Nasri, Mehdi Ben Braham","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.70068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.70068","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study examines the heterogeneity in inflation's effects on Tunisian households, focusing on how socio-economic factors such as income, geographic location, and household composition influence inflation vulnerability. Using data from the National Survey on Household Budget, Consumption, and Living Standards and employing ordinary least squares and quantile regression methods, the analysis reveals significant disparities in inflation experiences across household types. The findings show that poorer, rural, and smaller households face higher inflation rates, while households led by unemployed or retired individuals, and those with lower educational attainment, are particularly vulnerable. Conversely, older household heads experience lower inflation rates, likely due to greater financial stability. The study offers important policy implications, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions such as direct cash transfers, subsidies, and education reforms to mitigate the disproportionate effects of inflation on vulnerable groups. By addressing these disparities, policymakers can foster more resilient and equitable household economies in Tunisia.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":"38 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148462713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

External Aid's Effect on Fragility and Fragility Regimes in Africa 外部援助对非洲脆弱性和脆弱性制度的影响

IF 2.1 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2026-07-04 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70067

Windbénédo Jean Marie Kébré, Idrissa M. Ouédraogo

{"title":"External Aid's Effect on Fragility and Fragility Regimes in Africa","authors":"Windbénédo Jean Marie Kébré, Idrissa M. Ouédraogo","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.70067","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.70067","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>External aid is central to Africa's development finance, yet many countries remain fragile. Using a panel of African countries (2006–2022), this article tests whether aid reduces fragility and affects movement across fragility regimes. Using a dynamic specification, System Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) results suggest that aid is associated with lower fragility, though the effect is modest, consistent with aid supporting short-run stabilisation when it reinforces core state functions within domestic institutional frameworks. However, results from a conditional mixed-process (CMP) ordered model that accounts for endogeneity in aid allocation indicate a more limited effect on regime change: aid is associated with a lower probability of movement into the least fragile regime and a higher probability of remaining in an intermediate fragility regime. Overall, the evidence supports a ‘stabilisation versus transformation’ pattern: aid may help contain deterioration and reduce fragility at the margin, but it does not automatically generate the deeper institutional and adaptive changes required for movement into the least fragile category. The findings imply that development cooperation should place less emphasis on aid volumes and more on predictable, multi-year support targeted to institutional strengthening, shock management capabilities and social cohesion.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":"38 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148381165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Revisiting Drivers of Financial Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dimension-Specific Analysis and Ranking of Determinants 重新审视撒哈拉以南非洲金融发展的驱动因素：具体维度分析和决定因素排名

IF 2.1 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2026-07-04 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70066

Solomon Luther Afful, Isaac Bentum-Ennin, Eric Amoo Bondzie

{"title":"Revisiting Drivers of Financial Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dimension-Specific Analysis and Ranking of Determinants","authors":"Solomon Luther Afful, Isaac Bentum-Ennin, Eric Amoo Bondzie","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.70066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.70066","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study examines the drivers of financial development in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using a dimension-specific framework that disaggregates financial development into financial institutions (FI), financial markets (FM) and a composite index (FD). Using panel data for 35 SSA countries over the period 2000–2023, the study employs Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) estimation, dominance analysis and System GMM as a robustness check. The findings reveal that institutional quality and human development are the most dominant drivers of financial development across all dimensions, with institutional quality leading for FI and FD, and human development emerging as the foremost determinant of FM. Digitalisation significantly promotes overall financial development and FI but exerts no significant effect on FM, while unemployment and inflation impose significant negative effects across dimensions. Economic growth remains largely insignificant, suggesting that structural and institutional factors outweigh short-term macroeconomic conditions in shaping financial outcomes in SSA. Dominance analysis further confirms the heterogeneous importance of determinants across dimensions, underscoring the multidimensional nature of financial development in the region. The findings call for dimension-specific reforms that prioritise governance quality, human capital development, digital financial infrastructure, macroeconomic stability and employment creation to achieve sustainable financial deepening across SSA.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":"38 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148381164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Natural Resource Wealth and Access to Clean Cooking Technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa 撒哈拉以南非洲的自然资源财富和获得清洁烹饪技术

IF 2.1 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2026-06-29 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70064

Gracia Mokondi Mosunga, Jean-Claude Kouladoum Mousseuknadji, Muhamadu Awal Kindzeka Wirajing

{"title":"Natural Resource Wealth and Access to Clean Cooking Technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"Gracia Mokondi Mosunga, Jean-Claude Kouladoum Mousseuknadji, Muhamadu Awal Kindzeka Wirajing","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.70064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.70064","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The study examines both linear and non-linear relationships between natural resource rents and access to clean cooking technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2000 to 2024. It employs the Driscoll-Kraay and the two-step system GMM estimators to address cross-sectional dependence and endogeneity. The findings reveal a complex relationship: negative linear and positive non-linear associations. The positive non-linear linkage suggests that as natural resource rents increase, reaching a potential threshold, the relationship reverses, with resource abundance becoming positively associated with access to clean cooking technologies. Robustness checks examining regional differences in access to clean cooking technologies show that the findings remain consistent across both rural and urban areas. Additionally, the study indicates that rents from oil, gas, minerals, coal, and forests are associated with higher levels of access to clean cooking technologies in a non-linear manner. This non-linear relationship across all types of resource rents highlights a turning point where rising and sustained resource rents become positively associated with greater adoption of clean cooking technologies, supporting the resource blessing hypothesis. Based on these findings, policy efforts should aim to strategically convert natural resource wealth into a driving force for inclusive energy access, particularly by promoting clean cooking technologies.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":"38 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148343283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Heterogeneous Effect of Corruption on Life Expectancy Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa 撒哈拉以南非洲地区腐败对预期寿命不平等的异质性影响

IF 2.1 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2026-06-22 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70063

Issa Dianda

{"title":"Heterogeneous Effect of Corruption on Life Expectancy Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"Issa Dianda","doi":"10.1111/1467-8268.70063","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.70063","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Sub-Saharan Africa is simultaneously the world's most corrupt region and the global epicenter of life expectancy inequality. This paper examines the heterogeneous effects of overall, petty, and grand corruption on life expectancy inequality across 41 Sub-Saharan countries over 2010–2021, using two-stage least squares and quantiles via moments regression. Corruption significantly widens life expectancy inequality, with the effect growing stronger at higher quantiles, indicating that corruption amplifies pre-existing disparities rather than creating new ones. Both petty and grand corruption independently deepen health disparities: grand corruption dominates at higher quantiles through macro-institutional channels such as budget distortions and elite capture while petty corruption prevails at lower quantiles through regressive barriers to basic healthcare access. Policy responses should therefore be differentiated: frontline informal payments reduction in low-inequalities settings, and institutional oversight reform in highly unequal contexts, embedded with a broader universal health system strengthening framework.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47363,"journal":{"name":"African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement","volume":"38 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148323988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Appreciation to Article Reviewers 感谢文章审稿人

IF 2.1 2区经济学

African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement Pub Date : 2026-06-17 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70062

引用次数: 0