Journal of Post Keynesian Economics最新文献

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Empirical analysis of the financial fragility of Russian enterprises using the financial instability hypothesis 基于金融不稳定假说的俄罗斯企业财务脆弱性实证分析
IF 1 3区 经济学
Journal of Post Keynesian Economics Pub Date : 2022-10-31 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2134036
E. Perepelkina, I. Rozmainsky
{"title":"Empirical analysis of the financial fragility of Russian enterprises using the financial instability hypothesis","authors":"E. Perepelkina, I. Rozmainsky","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2022.2134036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2022.2134036","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the financial instability hypothesis on Russian data. The main literature on this topic has been reviewed, and two financial fragility indexes—developed by Mulligan and by Torres Filho with coauthors—to determine whether Russian firms are in a hedge, speculative or Ponzi regime are used. To do empirical analysis, 371 Russian firms from nine industries—Agriculture, Construction, Investment, Light Industry, Power Industry, Machinery, Steel Industry, Trade, and also Oil, Gas, and Chemicals Industry—were selected, and these panel data include observations from 2005 to 2020. This period includes three cases of falling GDP in Russia: 2008–2009, 2014–2015, and 2020. After identifying the regime of firms according to the two above-mentioned criteria, we make a logistic regression on the base of the Nishi approach to determine what affects a firm’s probability of becoming a Ponzi unit. According to our analysis, the increase in GDP and Profitability leads to declining in the Russian firms’ probability to become Ponzi, whereas the rise in Short-term Debt results in the growing probability to have a fragile financing regime. In general, speculative financing dominated, and Construction, Investment, Power Industry, and Machinery were the most fragile sectors.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43701324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Household debt, student loan forgiveness, and human capital investment: a neo-Kaleckian approach 家庭债务、学生贷款减免和人力资本投资:新卡莱卡方法
IF 1 3区 经济学
Journal of Post Keynesian Economics Pub Date : 2022-10-17 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2134035
G. Serra
{"title":"Household debt, student loan forgiveness, and human capital investment: a neo-Kaleckian approach","authors":"G. Serra","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2022.2134035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2022.2134035","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper aims to analyze the sustainability of student debt in the US. For this purpose, I build a neo-Kaleckian model in which households can borrow to either consume or invest in human capital. Next, I calibrate the model using US data to simulate the economic effects of specific policies such as student loan forgiveness. To my knowledge, this is the first study that considers household borrowing for two different purposes, consumption and human capital accumulation, in a demand-led macro-modeling framework. The main findings are that (i) household debt is sustainable in the long run (i.e., the debt servicing is compatible with the long-term economic growth) for a consumption level greater than 90% of household income; (ii) new borrowing boosts short-term economic activity while having ambiguous long-term effects because of its outcomes to household indebtedness and debt servicing; and (iii) student loan cancelation has only short-run economic effects, whereas reducing loan interest rates and changing the eligibility criterion for student loan forgiveness result in long-term effects.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49109198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
The nature of money under a commodity standard: exogenous or endogenous? 商品标准下的货币本质:外生还是内生?
IF 1 3区 经济学
Journal of Post Keynesian Economics Pub Date : 2022-10-17 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2134031
G. Feldman
{"title":"The nature of money under a commodity standard: exogenous or endogenous?","authors":"G. Feldman","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2022.2134031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2022.2134031","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The aim of the present article is to discuss the nature of money under a commodity standard. The notion of money supply endogeneity, endorsed by Post-Keynesian (PK) scholars within the institutional framework of modern credit economies, is extended to the case of a gold standard regime by recourse to the view of early classical economists, which highlights the endogenous determination of the supply of precious metals in a long-period position. This interpretation represents a more robust and natural extension of the PK approach than the neoclassical quantity-theoretic framework employed by several PK scholars to give account of the normal working of this monetary system.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46142038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of expectations on the Brazilian Central Bank’s policy rate 预期对巴西央行政策利率的影响
IF 1 3区 经济学
Journal of Post Keynesian Economics Pub Date : 2022-08-11 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2110121
Fábio Henrique Bittes Terra, Cleomar Gomes
{"title":"The effect of expectations on the Brazilian Central Bank’s policy rate","authors":"Fábio Henrique Bittes Terra, Cleomar Gomes","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2022.2110121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2022.2110121","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article investigates how expectations influence the determination of the Brazilian benchmark interest rate based on Keynes’ views on the relationship between expectations and monetary policy. Then, as empirical methodology, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models and Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration are used to study, in the short and long-run, the connection between expectations and central bank interest rate. For the period from 2001Q3 to 2017Q4, results show that in the long-run business and consumer confidence, as well as expectations related to market interest rates, GDP, inflation and exchange rate play an important role on monetary policy actions. In the short-run, business and consumer confidence lose importance, while the other mentioned expectations are still statistically significant. The findings of the paper lend credence to Keynes’s view on the relation between expectation and money policy in Brazil.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42409905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Measuring green jobs through fuzzy logic: aimed at environmental conservation and socio-economic stability and inclusion 通过模糊逻辑衡量绿色就业:旨在环境保护和社会经济稳定与包容
IF 1 3区 经济学
Journal of Post Keynesian Economics Pub Date : 2022-08-10 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2094807
Natalia Bracarense, Paulo Afonso Bracarense Costa
{"title":"Measuring green jobs through fuzzy logic: aimed at environmental conservation and socio-economic stability and inclusion","authors":"Natalia Bracarense, Paulo Afonso Bracarense Costa","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2022.2094807","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2022.2094807","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The western model of development is experiencing a generalized crisis manifested by economic, political, ecological and sociological worldwide instabilities and heated popular responses sparking in several points of the globe. As illustrated by Kate Raworth in Doughnut Economics, 13% of the world population lives in a situation of food insecurity and 19% lives without electricity, meanwhile society experiences increasing rate of green gas emissions, biodiversity degradation, and deposits of reactive nitrogen. Aims at proposing an economic theory that supports access to basic human rights to every human being without depredating the quality of the environment have led a group of post-Keynesian/neo-Kaleckian economists to push for a framework that couples economic stability with concerns related to the broader social and environmental systems. To contribute to the newly intensified push of a post-Keynesian/neo-Kaleckian ecological economics, the present article introduces a metric for green jobs, using non-dichotomous measurements as proposed by “fuzzy logic,” as a tool to operationalize economic policies such as an ecological employment-guarantee program, for instance.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47746648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A refundable tax credit for children: its impact on poverty, inequality, and household debt 可退还的儿童税收抵免:对贫困、不平等和家庭债务的影响
IF 1 3区 经济学
Journal of Post Keynesian Economics Pub Date : 2022-08-08 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2107017
S. Pressman, Robert H. Scott
{"title":"A refundable tax credit for children: its impact on poverty, inequality, and household debt","authors":"S. Pressman, Robert H. Scott","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2022.2107017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2022.2107017","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Households with children face burdens that households without children don’t face. Besides food, clothing, shelter and healthcare, childcare can easily run several thousand dollars each year. Historically, US economic and social policies have done little to help families with children. Until 2018, families with children were helped indirectly through tax exemptions for children and some child tax credits. These benefits mainly helped middle-income families in high tax brackets. Things changed with American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, which provided a refundable tax credit to all families with children ($3,600 annually for children under six and $3,000 for those six and older)—even families with no taxable income. This payment is like the child allowance programs that exist in nearly all nations. Our paper examines how the refundable child tax credit affected the economic condition of US households with children, and the impact of this credit on poverty and income inequality in the United States. We conclude with some suggestions for improving the refundable child credit so that it does a better job of helping families with children.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41365950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Endogenous exchange rates in empirical stock-flow consistent models for peripheral economies: an illustration from the case of Argentina 外围经济体经验股票流动一致模型中的内生汇率:以阿根廷为例
IF 1 3区 经济学
Journal of Post Keynesian Economics Pub Date : 2022-08-08 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2103827
Sebastián Valdecantos
{"title":"Endogenous exchange rates in empirical stock-flow consistent models for peripheral economies: an illustration from the case of Argentina","authors":"Sebastián Valdecantos","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2022.2103827","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2022.2103827","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In recent years there has been an increase in empirical SFC models applied to specific countries to address a broad range of research questions. However, in most cases, the exchange rate has been modeled as exogenous. This prevents the analysis of both the multiplicity of channels through which the global financial cycle impacts economies and the effects that the different tools of domestic economic policy have on the external sector and macro-financial stability. To overcome this limitation, this paper presents an empirical quarterly SFC model for Argentina where the exchange rate is modeled among the lines proposed by Godley and Lavoie. The model includes a diversity of tools of economic policy that in the recent past have affected exchange rate stability and, consequently, the economy in general. The results suggest that the closure used in this model can be useful for the construction of similar models for other peripheral countries in which the nominal exchange rate results from the interaction of different processes from both the domestic economy and the rest of the world.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49436568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Does inflation targeting increase income inequality? 通胀目标制会加剧收入不平等吗?
IF 1 3区 经济学
Journal of Post Keynesian Economics Pub Date : 2022-07-28 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2101475
Yener Altunbaş, John Thornton
{"title":"Does inflation targeting increase income inequality?","authors":"Yener Altunbaş, John Thornton","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2022.2101475","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2022.2101475","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We contribute to the growing empirical literature on the impact of monetary policy on income distribution by focusing on the impact of adopting an inflation targeting (IT) regime to guide monetary policy. We assess the impact employing a panel of 121 advanced and developing economies, including 27 IT adopters, during the period 1971–2015. Our results suggest that IT adoption has contributed to greater inequality of household income as measured by the Gini coefficient and to a reduced share of GDP going to labor compensation. The results are robust to alternative estimation methodologies and to variations in the sample with respect to countries and data frequency.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43511524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Distribution and demand in Brazil: empirical evidence from the structural and aggregative approaches 巴西的分配和需求:来自结构和综合方法的经验证据
IF 1 3区 经济学
Journal of Post Keynesian Economics Pub Date : 2022-07-28 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2103826
Felipe Orsolin Teixeira, Fabrício José Missio, Ricardo Dathein
{"title":"Distribution and demand in Brazil: empirical evidence from the structural and aggregative approaches","authors":"Felipe Orsolin Teixeira, Fabrício José Missio, Ricardo Dathein","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2022.2103826","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2022.2103826","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper examines the relationship between functional income distribution, aggregate demand and capacity utilization for the Brazilian economy between 2000 and 2015. Therefore, we take on two different theoretical perspectives in the empirical exercises: (i) under the structural perspective, we analyze the effects of the wage share on the components of aggregate demand; and (ii) from an aggregative perspective, we evaluated the cyclical relationship between the demand curve and the distribution curve. The results differ according to the theoretical view: the first approach indicated that aggregate demand assumed a wage-led pattern with negative effects on investment (conflicting-stagnationism), while the second one showed a profit-squeeze distribution regime.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41861680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Apparent micro-realism in mainstream orthodox economics 主流正统经济学中的明显微观现实主义
IF 1 3区 经济学
Journal of Post Keynesian Economics Pub Date : 2022-07-20 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2099423
Joaquim Vergés-Jaime
{"title":"Apparent micro-realism in mainstream orthodox economics","authors":"Joaquim Vergés-Jaime","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2022.2099423","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2022.2099423","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract As reiterated for a long, mainstream economics mainly relies upon a set of unrealistic axioms and deductive assumptions, which, nevertheless, are what underpins its core postulates. They are unnecessarily unrealistic assumptions, mainly because the empirical evidence for contrasting them is as overwhelming as old. Even the claim for (returning to) realism in economics is already old within part of the profession. However, most mainstream academics tend to consider that their research works have in fact empirical contents insofar as they usually start by considering simplified cases, situations, or descriptions that allude to some real economic facet; this, in the way of specificities to be introduced into the standard General Equilibrium model. This seeming paradox is discussed in this paper, and as a result, it is argued that there do is a predominance of a research programme in mainstream orthodox economics (modern neoclassical “economic theory,” plus “econometrics”) that is mainly characterized, more than by micro-empirical precisions, by a sort of abstract micro empiricism. It is also argued that the outcomes brought about by such a “mode of research production” (contributions) do not appear significantly relevant in terms of the quantum of knowledge provided about the functioning and problems of our economies.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41302006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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