Endogenous exchange rates in empirical stock-flow consistent models for peripheral economies: an illustration from the case of Argentina

Abstract

Abstract In recent years there has been an increase in empirical SFC models applied to specific countries to address a broad range of research questions. However, in most cases, the exchange rate has been modeled as exogenous. This prevents the analysis of both the multiplicity of channels through which the global financial cycle impacts economies and the effects that the different tools of domestic economic policy have on the external sector and macro-financial stability. To overcome this limitation, this paper presents an empirical quarterly SFC model for Argentina where the exchange rate is modeled among the lines proposed by Godley and Lavoie. The model includes a diversity of tools of economic policy that in the recent past have affected exchange rate stability and, consequently, the economy in general. The results suggest that the closure used in this model can be useful for the construction of similar models for other peripheral countries in which the nominal exchange rate results from the interaction of different processes from both the domestic economy and the rest of the world.