{"title":"Big data, emerging technologies and the characteristics of ‘good intelligence’","authors":"Miah Hammond-Errey","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2287255","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2287255","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":"33 26","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138602651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Research note: ‘a cuckoo in the diplomatic service nest’: freedom of information and the ‘English Desk’ of the Information Research Department (IRD)","authors":"Rory Cormac, Dan Lomas","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2263947","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2263947","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135634362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Uncivil War: the British Army and the Troubles, 1966-1975 <b>Uncivil War: the British Army and the Troubles, 1966-1975</b> , by Huw Bennett, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2023, 427 pp., £25 (Hbk), ISBN: 9781107136380","authors":"Tim Wilson","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2272327","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2272327","url":null,"abstract":"\"Uncivil War: the British Army and the Troubles, 1966-1975.\" Intelligence and National Security, ahead-of-print(ahead-of-print), pp. 1–2 Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1. Charles Townshend, The British Campaign in Ireland, 1919–1921: The development of political and military policies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1975.2. Edward Burke, An Army of Tribes: British Army Cohesion, Deviancy and Murder in Northern Ireland. Liverpool: Liverpool University Press, 2018.3. J. Bowyer Bell, A Time of Terror: How Democratic Societies Respond to Revolutionary Violence. New York: Basic Books, 1978, 131.4. The BAOR was the United Kingdom’s main land contribution to NATO. Headquartered at JHQ Rheindahlen in West Germany between 1954 and 2013. The BAOR was commanded by a general and consisted – in peacetime – of British I Corps and supporting units. In 1969 the BAOR deployed some 53,000 troops.5. The PIRA emerged in December 1969 after a split within the IRA and the Irish Republican movement. By 1972 it had succeeded the Official IRA (OIRA) as the dominant Republican paramilitary organisation.6. The MRF was a covert intelligence-gathering and counterinsurgency unit of the British Army. It was formed in Northern Ireland in 1971 and disbanded in late 1972.","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135636212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modelling the intelligence requirements and priorities process: the US response to the Rwandan genocide","authors":"Neveen Abdalla","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2270607","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2270607","url":null,"abstract":"In the US, national security outcomes tend to be categorised as either the responsibility of the intelligence or policy community. Few discuss systemic outcomes emanating from the requirements and priorities (R&P) process, a top-level collaborative effort that determines national security objectives and establishes the means to address them. Here, a holistic model is introduced to examine the R&P process alongside the binary functions of intelligence and policy, and tested against two mandates of the US response to the Rwandan genocide: evacuation of American expats, and broader intervention. Such macroscopic investigations can better identify the root causes of national security outcomes.","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":"85 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135725254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The New Zealand intelligence community and effects operations: the covert action dilemma","authors":"Murray Place, Rhys Ball","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2274142","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2274142","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACTBounded by current legislation, the New Zealand Intelligence Community (NZIC) is explicitly limited from conducting any form of Covert Action, or what is increasingly being called within New Zealand, Effects Operations. This article aims to understand whether this policy remains both operationally fit for purpose and consistent with the New Zealand public’s understanding and expectations in a time of significant geopolitical and domestic security uncertainty. Supported by 2022 research which surveyed New Zealand public perceptions of the NZIC and the tolerances of Effects Operations, we seek to establish, through an examination of Covert Action policy amongst Five Eyes partners and New Zealand intelligence literature, an understanding of a working definition of Effects Operations, and show that despite previous thinking linked to ethical challenges related to the conduct of such activity, the wider New Zealand public is likely to be supportive of some form of NZIC Effects Operations mandate in the service of national security policy goals. This research thus further reinforces recent independent assessments that the current NZIC legislation, the 2017 Intelligence and Security Act, is not completely fit for purpose and remains overly restrictive in a way that limits future policy options like Effects Operations and needs to be further considered. Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1. United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.2. Rogers and Mawdsley, “Turning the Dial,” 2021.3. Lowenthal, Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy, 249.4. R George, Intelligence and Strategy, 2013, 156; see also, Alan Breakspear, “A New Definition of Intelligence,” 2013, 678–93,; DeVine, “Covert Action and Clandestine Activities” 2019,; Erwin, “Covert Action: Legislative Background,” 2013,; Cormac et al.,, “What Constitutes Successful Covert Action?” 2022, 111–28,; Cormac and Aldrich, “Grey Is the New Black” 2018,: 477–94,; Cormac, ”Disruption and Deniable Interventionism” 2017, 169–91,; Warner, ‘A Matter of Trust’, 2019, 33–42.5. Christopher Andrew, The Secret World, 2018, 690.6. Ibid., 690–91.7. Cormac and Aldrich, “Grey Is the New Black”.8. Lowenthal, Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy, Chapter 8.9. Ibid., 263.10. Cormac and Aldrich, “Grey Is the New Black”.11. Ibid., 487–88.12. Ibid., 488.13. Ibid., 480; Joseph and Poznansky, “Media Technology, Covert Action,” 2018, 320–35.14. Cormac and Aldrich, Grey Is the New Black; see also, Graphika and Stanford, ‘Unheard Voice’, 2022.15. Grey Zone activity is contemporary terminology for activity short of warfare. Covert Action is an activity within the theory of the Grey Zone.16. Monaghan, “Bad Idea,” 2021.17. Cullen and Reddy, “Intelligence and Security,” 2016, 3–14; Intelligence and Security Act 2017.18. Cullen and Reddy, “Intelligence and Security,” 83–84; Gee and Patman, ‘Small State or Minor Power?’, 2021, 38.19. Cullen and Reddy, “Intell","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":"28 8","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135819629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Unified Theory for Intelligence Analysis","authors":"Carles Ortola","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2272349","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2272349","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACTCausation has traditionally been an under-theorized topic. Until Hendrickson’s work, very little effort had been devoted to creating a compelling theory of causation in intelligence analysis. In line with the recent attempts to integrate intelligence theory with philosophy, this article is intended to contribute to the philosophy of intelligence by defining a dedicated account of causation for it. The Unified Theory for Intelligence Analysis, as this account of causation is named, is intended to integrate into a single account Betts’ Normal and Exceptional Theories as well as Hendrickson’s target challenges. It is then proved that a pluralistic account of causation that combines both counterfactual and probabilistic accounts of causation is the most successful option. Finally, it is shown that Bayesian tools are the natural manifestation of this Unified Theory, and that Subjective Logic can help refute criticism against Bayesianism in intelligence analysis. Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1. Phythian, “Intelligence Analysis and Social Science Methods: Exploring the Potential for and Possible Limits of Mutual Learning,” 601.2. Marrin, Improving Intelligence Analysis: Bridging the Gap between Scholarship and Practice.3. Kaupi, “Counterterrorism Analysis 101,” 47.4. Phythian, “Intelligence Analysis and Social Science Methods: Exploring the Potential for and Possible Limits of Mutual Learning,” p. 605.5. Betts, Enemies of Intelligence: Knowledge and Power in American National Security, p. 57.6. Laplace’s demon is a hypothetical being that has perfect knowledge of the position and momentum of every particle in the universe. If such a being existed, it could use this knowledge to predict the future with certainty. Laplace and his contemporaries believed that the universe was deterministic, meaning that every event was caused by a previous event and could be predicted with perfect knowledge. However, later research showed that the universe is not deterministic at the quantum level, meaning that there is an element of randomness in nature. This led to the crisis of classical determinism and the development of probabilistic quantum mechanics, which is a more accurate description of the world.7. Minkel, “If the Universe Were a Computer”.8. Phythian, ‘Intelligence Analysis and Social Science Methods: Exploring the Potential for and Possible Limits of Mutual Learning’. P. 603.9. Hendrickson, Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts: A Multidimensional Approach of Traits, Techniques, and Targets.10. Heuer, “The Evolution of Structured Analytic Techniques,” p. 4.11. Hendrickson, Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts: A Multidimensional Approach of Traits, Techniques, and Targets.12. According to Hendrickson, there is an epistemic continuum from data collection to strategic advice, and it can be divided into four separate stages that can be added up depending on the kind of intelligence to be produced. I","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":"150 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135371559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Warship 2023 <b>Warship 2023</b> , edited by John Jordan, London, Osprey, 2023, 224 pp., Illustrated throughout with black-and-white photographs, £45 (hbk), ISBN: 9781472857132","authors":"Jesse Heley","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2272326","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2272326","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":"55 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135322027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Evolution of African Intelligence Cultures","authors":"R. Gerald Hughes, Martin Plaut","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2211872","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2211872","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135825335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"State Department cipher machines and communications security in the early Cold War, 1944–1965","authors":"David Easter","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2269512","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2269512","url":null,"abstract":"From 1944 the State Department attempted to improve its communications security by creating a Division of Cryptography and mechanising the encryption process. This article assesses the effectiveness of these reforms and shows that State’s new cipher equipment had cryptographic vulnerabilities. Moreover, the department was unable to maintain physical security at the Moscow embassy and through espionage and technical surveillance the KGB broke the ciphers and read American communications. The paper concludes by analysing the impact of this security failure, including the claim that intercepted messages influenced Stalin’s decision to approve the North Korean invasion of South Korea in 1950.","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135993128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Learning for times of uncertainty <b>Estimative intelligence in European foreign policymaking. Learning lessons from an era of surprise</b> , edited by Christoph Meyer, Eva Michaels, Nikki Ikani, Aviva Guttmann, Michael S. Goodman, Edinburgh, Edinburgh University Press, 2022, 370 pp., £85.00 (Hardback), ISBN: 9781399505512","authors":"Antonio M. Díaz-Fernández","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2269517","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2269517","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135853783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}