Washington Quarterly最新文献_第9页

The Case for Maintaining Strategic Ambiguity in the Taiwan Strait 台湾海峡保持战略模糊的案例

IF 1.7 3区社会学

Washington Quarterly Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.1932088

Nien-chung Chang-Liao, Chi Fang

{"title":"The Case for Maintaining Strategic Ambiguity in the Taiwan Strait","authors":"Nien-chung Chang-Liao, Chi Fang","doi":"10.1080/0163660X.2021.1932088","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2021.1932088","url":null,"abstract":"For decades, one key dimension of US policy toward Taiwan has been “strategic ambiguity.” With its equivocal reassurance in defending Taiwan, while recognizing there is “one China,” Washington has sought both to prevent Beijing from launching an unprovoked attack on the island and to dissuade Taipei from declaring the island’s de jure independence from the mainland. Since Washington established diplomatic ties with the PRC in 1979, this policy has allowed the United States to maintain cooperative and beneficial relationships with both sides of the Taiwan Strait, contributing to peace and prosperity in the region. In recent years, however, there have been clear signs that cross-Strait relations have become less stable and more war-prone. China’s belligerence toward Taiwan is increasing—in particular, it has intensified its military exercises in the air and in the waters surrounding Taiwan—prompting a renewed debate over the appropriate level of US security assurances for the island. A growing number of scholars and analysts are calling for a clearer, enhanced US commitment to deter Chinese aggression, shifting Washington’s Taiwan policy to one of “strategic clarity.” The US government seemed to be moving in this direction. The Trump administration received Taiwanese leaders in US government facilities, dispatched cabinet-level officials to the island, and sold a large quantity of advanced weapons to Taipei. The Biden administration, while revitalizing traditional US","PeriodicalId":46957,"journal":{"name":"Washington Quarterly","volume":"44 1","pages":"45 - 60"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/0163660X.2021.1932088","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47089332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5

Complicating China’s Rise: Rural Underemployment 加剧中国崛起：农村就业不足

IF 1.7 3区社会学

Washington Quarterly Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.1932097

S. Rozelle, M. Boswell

引用次数: 4

Is the Chinese Communist Party Ready for the Future? 中国共产党为未来做好准备了吗?

IF 1.7 3区社会学

Washington Quarterly Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.1933739

Jude Blanchette, Evan S. Medeiros

{"title":"Is the Chinese Communist Party Ready for the Future?","authors":"Jude Blanchette, Evan S. Medeiros","doi":"10.1080/0163660X.2021.1933739","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2021.1933739","url":null,"abstract":"As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) prepares to commemorate on July 1 the 100th anniversary of its founding in 1921, it continues to confound policymakers and scholars with its expanding illiberalism amid persistent resilience, defying expectations of eventual moderation and inevitable collapse. From the vantage point of 2021, the CCP has demonstrated that it can adapt to both new and legacy challenges or, at a minimum, find creative ways to kick the can down the road. Not only is the Party resilient, it is also successful: today’s Communist Party controls more wealth, commands a more powerful military force, and can exert its influence over farther reaches of the globe than at any other point in its history. The CCP’s repeated ability to defy the odds—from war to global recession— has given rise to triumphalist narratives at home that highlight past successes as proof of a political model superior to electoral democracies. A regime that can oversee decades of breakneck economic growth deserves praise, careful study, and perhaps replication, with Xi Jinping highlighting the “the China solution” (中国方案) in a 2016 speech commemorating the CCP’s 95th anniversary. Indeed, events of the past 12 months, due to China’s rapid virus control and economic rebound, have supercharged this domestic sense of validation among both the Party and the people.","PeriodicalId":46957,"journal":{"name":"Washington Quarterly","volume":"44 1","pages":"21 - 43"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/0163660X.2021.1933739","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45485837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Orienting the 2021 Nuclear Posture Review 2021年核态势评估的方向

IF 1.7 3区社会学

Washington Quarterly Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.1933740

B. Roberts

{"title":"Orienting the 2021 Nuclear Posture Review","authors":"B. Roberts","doi":"10.1080/0163660X.2021.1933740","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2021.1933740","url":null,"abstract":"With its March 2021 Interim National Security Strategic Guidance, the Biden administration set down its first markers on nuclear policy. On international nuclear diplomacy, it committed to “head off costly arms races and reestablish our credibility as a leader in arms control,” “pursue new arms control arrangements” “where possible,” “engage in meaningful dialogue with Russia and China on a range of emerging military technological developments that implicate strategic stability,” and “renew”US leadership of international nonproliferation diplomacy. This was in the context of a commitment “to elevate diplomacy as our tool of first resort.” On deterrence strategy, the administration committed to “reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy, while ensuring our strategic deterrent remains safe, secure, and effective and that our extended deterrence commitments to our allies remain strong and credible.” This was in the context of commitments “to reinvigorate and modernize our alliances” and “to make smart and disciplined choices regarding our national defense.” The new administration now faces the challenge of turning these goals into a practical governance agenda: how should it do so? What can it reasonably expect to accomplish in four years or eight? What steps should it avoid? It has been urged to bold action by many, on the argument that “we are sleepwalking toward the nuclear precipice,” in part because “our strategies reflect old thinking.” How bold should it be?","PeriodicalId":46957,"journal":{"name":"Washington Quarterly","volume":"44 1","pages":"123 - 142"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/0163660X.2021.1933740","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48180881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Zimbabwe’s Economic Meltdown: Are Sanctions Really to Blame? 津巴布韦经济崩溃:制裁真的是罪魁祸首吗?

IF 1.7 3区社会学

Washington Quarterly Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.1934997

Musiwaro Ndakaripa

{"title":"Zimbabwe’s Economic Meltdown: Are Sanctions Really to Blame?","authors":"Musiwaro Ndakaripa","doi":"10.1080/0163660X.2021.1934997","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2021.1934997","url":null,"abstract":"Since the early 2000s, Zimbabwe has been under sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union that have shaped Zimbabwe’s domestic politics as well as the country’s relations withWestern nations. The Zimbabwean government under President Emmerson Mnangagwa, who was inaugurated on November 24, 2017, blames the sanctions for the country’s economic meltdown—Zimbabwe is currently facing foreign currency and cash shortages, an inflation rate of 288.5 percent from October 2018 to October 2019, and excessive utility costs and low wages resulting in drastically decreased demand for goods and services. Most citizens are now subjected to extreme poverty. The Zimbabwean government has made multiple attempts to rally anti-sanctions sentiment, but sanctions have largely been maintained. The Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU–PF) government’s first anti-sanctions campaign took place in 2011 when then-President Mugabe and his leadership launched the National Anti-Sanctions Petition Campaign rally in Harare on March 1, 2011. The main Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party led by then-Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai","PeriodicalId":46957,"journal":{"name":"Washington Quarterly","volume":"44 1","pages":"95 - 120"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/0163660X.2021.1934997","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42880524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

The Nuclear Proliferation Landscape: Is Past Prologue? 核扩散前景:过去的序幕?

IF 1.7 3区社会学

Washington Quarterly Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.1934250

Eric Brewer

{"title":"The Nuclear Proliferation Landscape: Is Past Prologue?","authors":"Eric Brewer","doi":"10.1080/0163660X.2021.1934250","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2021.1934250","url":null,"abstract":"The Biden administration has a full plate when it comes to nuclear challenges. As of this writing, Iran’s nuclear program is expanding, and the amount of time Tehran would need to produce enough material for a bomb is shrinking. Even if a diplomatic solution can be found, Iran is likely to retain a latent capability to build nuclear weapons for the foreseeable future. North Korea’s qualitative and quantitative improvements to its nuclear arsenal— including missiles that can reach the United States—mean that it can no longer be considered a minor nuclear nuisance. Evidence suggests that the administration will focus closely on these threats. And it would be right to do so. But President Biden and his team should also look beyond the immediate horizon. If future proliferation threats look like the past 30 years—that is, socalled “rogue” states such as Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Syria, and Iran—then the United States should feel reasonably confident about its ability to keep the spread of nuclear weapons contained. Aside from Iran, there are few true US adversaries that are likely to mount a new proliferation challenge. The regimes in Libya and Iraq that pursued nuclear weapons are gone, and those two countries as well as Syria are consumed with internal strife that makes reconstitution of a nuclear weapons program unlikely. Moreover, Washington has a wealth of experience and a refined and tested toolkit for managing such threats.","PeriodicalId":46957,"journal":{"name":"Washington Quarterly","volume":"44 1","pages":"181 - 197"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/0163660X.2021.1934250","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46742899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Rocky Future of the US-Israeli Special Relationship 美以特殊关系的坎坷未来

IF 1.7 3区社会学

Washington Quarterly Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.1934999

D. Waxman, J. Pressman

{"title":"The Rocky Future of the US-Israeli Special Relationship","authors":"D. Waxman, J. Pressman","doi":"10.1080/0163660X.2021.1934999","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2021.1934999","url":null,"abstract":"After four harmonious years of US-Israeli relations, during which the Trump administration was closely aligned with the Israeli government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the US-Israeli relationship is bound to come under strain during the next four years of Joe Biden’s presidency. Although President Biden himself has always been a strong supporter of Israel since his early days in the US Senate, his administration’s policies and preferences will almost certainly differ substantially from those favored by the Israeli government— whether it is led by Netanyahu or Naftali Bennett (who is farther to the right than Netanyahu). On the hot-button issues of Iran’s nuclear program and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it is already clear that the Biden administration is trying to reverse several of the policies of its predecessor—policies that the Israeli government enthusiastically supported. President Biden wants the United States to rejoin the 2015 nuclear agreement and get Iran to fully comply with it again. To do that, he will need to lift crippling US sanctions on Iran, which will be widely viewed in Israel as a dangerous concession to Tehran. By ending the","PeriodicalId":46957,"journal":{"name":"Washington Quarterly","volume":"44 1","pages":"75 - 93"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/0163660X.2021.1934999","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43586654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

A Grand Strategy of Democratic Solidarity 民主团结的大战略

IF 1.7 3区社会学

Washington Quarterly Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.1893003

H. Brands, C. Edel

{"title":"A Grand Strategy of Democratic Solidarity","authors":"H. Brands, C. Edel","doi":"10.1080/0163660X.2021.1893003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2021.1893003","url":null,"abstract":"On March 12, 1947, Harry Truman addressed a joint session of Congress with a very specific proposal: emergency aid for Greece and Turkey, which were menaced by a communist insurgency and facing Soviet intimidation, respectively. But Truman, speaking at the dawn of the Cold War, framed the matter far more expansively. Allowing the countries of the world to “work out a way of life free from coercion,” he explained, had been a “fundamental issue in the war with Germany and Japan.” At a time when “nearly every nation must choose between alternative ways of life,” the United States must once again “support free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities by outside pressures.” Some of Truman’s own advisers were uneasy at this sweeping language. Truman himself admitted that the Turkish and Greek governments were, at best, quasi-democracies. Yet he nonetheless presented matters starkly in order to rally Americans to the banner of containment and capture what was ultimately at stake in the Cold War. The fundamental question, Truman understood, was not simply about Greece and Turkey. It was whether the postwar world would be shaped by liberal principles of self-determination and freedom of choice—or would instead be molded by coercion, predation, and authoritarian aggression. Truman would recognize the situation America and its allies confront today. Democracies are again threatened by illiberal influences within their borders","PeriodicalId":46957,"journal":{"name":"Washington Quarterly","volume":" ","pages":"29 - 47"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/0163660X.2021.1893003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49216084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

The Unavoidable Technology: How Artificial Intelligence Can Strengthen Nuclear Stability 不可避免的技术:人工智能如何加强核稳定性

IF 1.7 3区社会学

Washington Quarterly Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.1893019

Jessica Cox, Heather Williams

引用次数: 7

Middle Power Diplomacy in an Age of US-China Tensions 美中关系紧张时代的中间大国外交

IF 1.7 3区社会学

Washington Quarterly Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.1896136

Erik Brattberg

{"title":"Middle Power Diplomacy in an Age of US-China Tensions","authors":"Erik Brattberg","doi":"10.1080/0163660X.2021.1896136","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2021.1896136","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past four years, while the Trump administration doubled down on its \"America First\" foreign policy and Sino-American tensions continued to sharpen, another trend has been equally pertinent: the growing relevance of middle power diplomacy A loose collection of like-minded, mid-sized players who also are traditional US democratic allies--including Europe (i e , Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and the EU itself), Canada, Japan, and Australia--have reinforced partnerships with one another and increasingly taken it upon themselves to press forward with multilateral solutions to various regional and global challenges in the absence of leadership from Washington Underpinning their efforts is a shared concern about the unraveling of international order as the United States abdicated its traditional leadership role under President Trump and China's assertiveness has grown, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic Reluctant to pick sides in the increasingly zero-sum competition between Washington and Beijing, they therefore had a stronger rationale to band together more closely--though this is far from straightforward in practice","PeriodicalId":46957,"journal":{"name":"Washington Quarterly","volume":"44 1","pages":"219 - 238"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/0163660X.2021.1896136","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46559389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 6