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A theory of nuclear disarmament: Cases, analogies, and the role of the non-proliferation regime 核裁军理论:案例、类比和不扩散制度的作用
IF 5.9 1区 社会学
Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2021-09-17 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1978159
Kjølv Egeland
{"title":"A theory of nuclear disarmament: Cases, analogies, and the role of the non-proliferation regime","authors":"Kjølv Egeland","doi":"10.1080/13523260.2021.1978159","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2021.1978159","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT What might prompt a nuclear-armed state to give up its arsenal? Nuclear disarmament has provided a nominally shared goal for virtually all the world’s states for decades, yet surprisingly little effort has been devoted to systematically theorizing its drivers. This article aims to begin filling this void. I proceed in three steps. First, I discuss the conceptual, material, and ideational features of renunciation to arrive at a rudimentary understanding of what, fundamentally, nuclear disarmament as a political process involves. Second, I scope out the empirical evidence on which a general theory of nuclear renunciation might be based. Third, synthesizing the dominant explanations for the cases discussed in the second part, I outline a basic account of nuclear relinquishment and discuss the compatibility of this account with common assumptions about disarmament practice. I conclude that the best evidence available suggests that adversarial politics and stigmatization are necessary conditions for renunciation.","PeriodicalId":46729,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Security Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48291245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
NPT as an antifragile system: How contestation improves the nonproliferation regime 《不扩散核武器条约》作为一个反脆弱的体系:争论如何改善不扩散制度
IF 5.9 1区 社会学
Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2021-09-16 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1978761
Michal Smetana, J. O’Mahoney
{"title":"NPT as an antifragile system: How contestation improves the nonproliferation regime","authors":"Michal Smetana, J. O’Mahoney","doi":"10.1080/13523260.2021.1978761","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2021.1978761","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT We introduce “antifragility” as a conceptual framework to understand the impact of occasional violations of regime norms on the health of respective regimes. Contrary to the prevailing understanding of norm violation as a strictly negative phenomenon that leaves regimes damaged, we show that normative deviance is, under certain conditions, a stressor that helps predominantly antifragile systems learn, improve, and adapt to changes in both internal and external environments. We apply this conceptual framework to the case of the NPT regime and the prominent violations of its nonproliferation norms by India in the 1970s (as a “contestation from outside”) and Iraq in the 1990s (as a “contestation from within”). Our findings question the prevailing catastrophizing narrative about the strictly negative impact of norm violations on regime stability and contribute to contemporary scholarly debates about norm dynamics within the NPT.","PeriodicalId":46729,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Security Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48519113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
Emerging technology and nuclear security: What does the wisdom of the crowd tell us? 新兴技术与核安全:大众智慧告诉我们什么?
IF 5.9 1区 社会学
Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1928963
M. Onderco, Madeline Zutt
{"title":"Emerging technology and nuclear security: What does the wisdom of the crowd tell us?","authors":"M. Onderco, Madeline Zutt","doi":"10.1080/13523260.2021.1928963","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2021.1928963","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT What is the impact of emerging technologies on nuclear security and disarmament? Current rapid technological advances are taking place against the backdrop of increased investments in modernizing nuclear arsenals, rising tensions among great powers, and increased pressure on nuclear arms control agreements. Yet, the anticipated net effect of these emerging technologies on the nuclear landscape remains ambiguous. Through a survey with 85 experts and a series of elite interviews with 14 decision-makers, this article contends that while emerging technologies destabilize nuclear deterrence by increasing nuclear risk, they can also create fresh opportunities for nuclear disarmament. Given that new technologies are changing the nature of nuclear threats, this article also argues that we need to change the way we think about arms control if we want to respond effectively to the threats posed by emerging technologies.","PeriodicalId":46729,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Security Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/13523260.2021.1928963","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45366240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
India’s recognition as a nuclear power: A case of strategic cooptation 印度被承认为核大国：一个战略合作案例
IF 5.9 1区 社会学
Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2021-05-01 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1920117
P. Frankenbach, Andreas Kruck, Bernhard Zangl
{"title":"India’s recognition as a nuclear power: A case of strategic cooptation","authors":"P. Frankenbach, Andreas Kruck, Bernhard Zangl","doi":"10.1080/13523260.2021.1920117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2021.1920117","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In the mid-2000s, India turned from a nuclear pariah of the international community into a de facto recognized nuclear power. Why and how did this status elevation come about? Realist, liberal, and constructivist perspectives point to important motivations but fail to elucidate the process of India’s (re-)integration. Our strategic cooptation argument conceives of India’s status upgrade as an exchange of institutional privileges for institutional support. To stabilize the nuclear non-proliferation regime, the United States and other nuclear powers offered India the privilege of being recognized as nuclear power—and of taking part in international nuclear trade—in return for India’s promise to provide additional support to the non-proliferation regime. This deal materialized because India was able and willing to provide the needed support and because the institutional setting provided favorable conditions for circumventing and overcoming third-party resistance. We thus establish “strategic cooptation” as a mode of adapting international security institutions.","PeriodicalId":46729,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Security Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/13523260.2021.1920117","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49667690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Redefining deterrence in cyberspace: Private sector contribution to national strategies of cyber deterrence 重新定义网络空间威慑:私营部门对国家网络威慑战略的贡献
IF 5.9 1区 社会学
Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1882812
Eugenio Lilli
{"title":"Redefining deterrence in cyberspace: Private sector contribution to national strategies of cyber deterrence","authors":"Eugenio Lilli","doi":"10.1080/13523260.2021.1882812","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2021.1882812","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This article explores the nature and the desirability of private sector contribution to national strategies of cyber deterrence. The article starts by developing a variation of the concept of cyber deterrence, called RCDC deterrence, which is simultaneously restrictive, comprehensive, dynamic, and complemental. Second, it applies RCDC deterrence to identify and analyze specific areas of cyber deterrence that can benefit the most from private sector contribution. Third, the article cautions about the potential security, legal, and moral issues that could arise from such private contributions. Instead of offering definitive answers on these complex issues, the article ends by suggesting avenues for further research. The ultimate objective is to assist decision-makers in designing policies and regulations aimed at maximizing the benefits of public–private cooperation in cyber deterrence while mitigating its potential downsides.","PeriodicalId":46729,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Security Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/13523260.2021.1882812","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45736861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
A fragile public preference for cyber strikes: Evidence from survey experiments in the United States, United Kingdom, and Israel 公众对网络攻击的脆弱偏好：来自美国、英国和以色列调查实验的证据
IF 5.9 1区 社会学
Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2020.1868836
Ryan Shandler, M. L. Gross, Daphna Canetti
{"title":"A fragile public preference for cyber strikes: Evidence from survey experiments in the United States, United Kingdom, and Israel","authors":"Ryan Shandler, M. L. Gross, Daphna Canetti","doi":"10.1080/13523260.2020.1868836","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2020.1868836","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT To what extent does the public support the use of cyber weapons? We propose that public exposure to the destructive potential of cyber-attacks will dispel the clear cross-national preference for cyber strikes. To test this, we conducted two survey experiments (n = 2,585) that examine support for cyber versus conventional military strikes in the United States, United Kingdom, and Israel. In study 1, we exposed respondents to television news reports depicting various forms of terror attacks, and then measured the subsequent support for retaliatory options. Findings indicate that the high public support for deploying cyber weapons dissipated entirely among respondents exposed to lethal cyber-attacks. In study 2, we probed this vanishing support, finding that exposure to destructive cyber-attacks undercuts the perception of cyber as a less lethal domain, therefore diminishing its appeal. We conclude by discussing how the fragile public preference for cyber weapons encourages military escalation in the short-term.","PeriodicalId":46729,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Security Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/13523260.2020.1868836","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41677809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 20
Responding to the crisis in United Nations peace operations 对联合国和平行动中的危机作出反应
IF 5.9 1区 社会学
Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1899543
K. Kenkel, C. Foley
{"title":"Responding to the crisis in United Nations peace operations","authors":"K. Kenkel, C. Foley","doi":"10.1080/13523260.2021.1899543","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2021.1899543","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This special forum discusses the future trajectory of UN peace operations at a time many stakeholders and analysts consider to be one of crisis, contestation, or at the very least transition. The UN is facing difficulties in responding effectively to many of the world’s worst recent conflicts, even where it has (or until recently had) operations. Even before COVID-19, the blue helmets were facing a period of serious retrenchment and budgetary constraints. Mission mandates have experienced a transformation, from the recent “robust turn” to the incorporation of stabilization mandates grounded in counterinsurgency/counterterrorism doctrine. The crossroads of economic downturn, geopolitical realignment and continuous adaptation of peacekeeping practice provides the backdrop of the contributions to the special forum that follows. The analyses presented here not only accompany the ongoing evolution of the nexus of issues that constitute peacekeeping studies but also reflect the breadth and depth of the extensive attendant academic literature.","PeriodicalId":46729,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Security Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/13523260.2021.1899543","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48060762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Stability abroad, instability at home? Changing UN peace operations and civil–military relations in Global South troop contributing countries 国外稳定，国内不稳定？不断变化的联合国和平行动与全球南方部队派遣国的军民关系
IF 5.9 1区 社会学
Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1883276
K. Kenkel
{"title":"Stability abroad, instability at home? Changing UN peace operations and civil–military relations in Global South troop contributing countries","authors":"K. Kenkel","doi":"10.1080/13523260.2021.1883276","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2021.1883276","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This article highlights the domestic effects of the ongoing changes in United Nations peacekeeping practice on troop contributing states from the Global South. It juxtaposes scholarship on stabilization, the specific motivations of Global South troop contributing countries, and in particular the effects on civilian control of armed forces of peacekeeping participation. It argues that the “diversionary peace” hypothesis—which posits beneficial effects on civilian control for peacekeeping—has not obtained, and that current developments in United Nations peace operations will negatively affect civil–military relations in postcolonial sending countries. The text suggests avenues for future inquiry. One is the notion that stabilization may lead to a net negative effect on civilian control in unconsolidated democracies. This is due to stabilization's increased militarization, and its turn towards objectives that mimic the counterinsurgency mandates associated with military rule in the Global South, rather than a focus on the socioeconomic well-being of local populations.","PeriodicalId":46729,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Security Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/13523260.2021.1883276","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48141351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
UN peace operations in a multipolar order: Building peace through the rule of law and bottom-up approaches 多极秩序下的联合国和平行动：通过法治和自下而上的方法建设和平
IF 5.9 1区 社会学
Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1898166
Kari M. Osland, Mateja Peter
{"title":"UN peace operations in a multipolar order: Building peace through the rule of law and bottom-up approaches","authors":"Kari M. Osland, Mateja Peter","doi":"10.1080/13523260.2021.1898166","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2021.1898166","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT UN peace operations need a new peacebuilding agenda that acknowledges both the transboundary nature of conflict drivers and the multipolar nature of the global order. This means casting aside the current stabilization approach, but also abandoning the pursuit of liberal peacebuilding of the unipolar era. Such a conflict transformation agenda would require UN peace operations to prioritize the rule of law and bottom-up approaches, thus creating the potential to be embraced by a much broader range of member states. In this article, we bring liberal peacebuilding critiques into a discussion with debates on the nature of the global order. Liberal peacebuilding critiques are rooted in the bottom-up problematization of international interventions and show what kind of peacebuilding is desirable. Conversely, the debates on the multipolar nature of the global order expose the top-down constraints as to what kind of peacebuilding is feasible.","PeriodicalId":46729,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Security Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/13523260.2021.1898166","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44714285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 14
The future of UN peace operations: Principled adaptation through phases of contraction, moderation, and renewal 联合国和平行动的未来:通过收缩、缓和和更新阶段进行有原则的适应
IF 5.9 1区 社会学
Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1894021
Cedric de Coning
{"title":"The future of UN peace operations: Principled adaptation through phases of contraction, moderation, and renewal","authors":"Cedric de Coning","doi":"10.1080/13523260.2021.1894021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2021.1894021","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This article considers the future of UN peace operations through a complexity theory lens. In the short-term peacekeeping will have to adapt to the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and the fall-out of the Trump presidency. In the medium-term peacekeeping will go through a phase of uncertainty and turbulence due to geopolitical power shifts in the global order. In the longer-term peacekeeping will have to adapt to a new multipolar global order characterized by coexistence, and a changing security landscape shaped by, among others, climate change, urbanization, and new technologies. Throughout these contraction, moderation, and adjustment phases, UN peacekeeping is likely to be guided by a principled adaptive approach, that allows it to adapt to the realities of the moment whilst staying true to its core form and identity. As a result, UN peacekeeping is likely to remain one of the most visible symbols of global governance and international cooperation.","PeriodicalId":46729,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Security Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/13523260.2021.1894021","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45147890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 18
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