Journal of Risk最新文献

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Modeling maxima with a regime-switching Fréchet model 用状态切换fracimet模型建模最大值
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Journal of Risk Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.21314/jor.2022.045
Keqi Tan, Yu Chen, Pengzhan Chen
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引用次数: 0
Explainable artificial intelligence for credit scoring in banking 银行信用评分中可解释的人工智能
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Journal of Risk Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.21314/jor.2022.046
Borger Melsom, Christian Bakke Vennerød, P. D. de Lange, Lars Ole Hjelkrem, Sjur Westgaard
{"title":"Explainable artificial intelligence for credit scoring in banking","authors":"Borger Melsom, Christian Bakke Vennerød, P. D. de Lange, Lars Ole Hjelkrem, Sjur Westgaard","doi":"10.21314/jor.2022.046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/jor.2022.046","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46697,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67719368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Procyclicality Control in Risk-based Margin Models 基于风险的保证金模型中的顺周期性控制
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Journal of Risk Pub Date : 2021-02-17 DOI: 10.21314/jor.2021.010
Lauren W. Wong, Yang Zhang
{"title":"Procyclicality Control in Risk-based Margin Models","authors":"Lauren W. Wong, Yang Zhang","doi":"10.21314/jor.2021.010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/jor.2021.010","url":null,"abstract":"The traditional risk-based margin models are risk sensitive but can be procyclical, especially under stressed market conditions. The issue of procyclicality has returned to the forefront of policy discussions due to the significant increases in margins because of market turmoil related to the Covid-19 pandemic. In this paper, we revisit the procyclicality issue in risk-based margin models. Most of the existing procyclicality mitigations focus on imposing a buffer or floor on the initial margin to avoid inadequately low margins during quiet periods. However, a more efficient anti-procyclicality mechanism should be able to provide relatively stable and adequate margins across different market conditions in a dynamic way, especially during stress periods. To address this issue, we develop a simple technique that explicitly provides a smooth transition of the key risk drivers in risk-based margin models across different market conditions. Specifically, we use a dynamic scaling factor to control procyclicality. This dynamic scaling factor scales up the key risk drivers during quiet periods to avoid inadequately low risk coverage and tempers down their elevated levels during stress periods. Finally, we show that the technique can provide an efficient control to mitigate procyclicality in risk-based margin models using simple illustrations.","PeriodicalId":46697,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49310897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
A review of the foreign exchange base currency approach under the standardized approach of the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book and issues related to the pegged reporting currency 在《交易帐簿基本审查》的标准化方法下对外汇基准货币方法的审查以及与挂钩报告货币有关的问题
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Journal of Risk Pub Date : 2021-02-17 DOI: 10.21314/JOR.2020.450
T. Yu
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引用次数: 0
Body and tail: an automated tail-detecting procedure 身体和尾巴:一种自动的尾巴检测程序
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Journal of Risk Pub Date : 2021-01-15 DOI: 10.21314/JOR.2020.447
Ingo Hoffmann, Christoph J. Börner
{"title":"Body and tail: an automated tail-detecting procedure","authors":"Ingo Hoffmann, Christoph J. Börner","doi":"10.21314/JOR.2020.447","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/JOR.2020.447","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46697,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42321050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Standard errors of risk and performance estimators for serially dependent returns 序列相关收益的风险和绩效估计的标准误差
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Journal of Risk Pub Date : 2021-01-06 DOI: 10.21314/JOR.2020.446
Xin Chen, R. Martin
{"title":"Standard errors of risk and performance estimators for serially dependent returns","authors":"Xin Chen, R. Martin","doi":"10.21314/JOR.2020.446","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/JOR.2020.446","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46697,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42159563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Performance measures adjusted for the risk situation (PARS) 针对风险情况调整的绩效度量(PARS)
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Journal of Risk Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.21314/jor.2021.007
Christoph Peters,Roland Seydel
{"title":"Performance measures adjusted for the risk situation (PARS)","authors":"Christoph Peters,Roland Seydel","doi":"10.21314/jor.2021.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/jor.2021.007","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46697,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk","volume":"6 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fund size and the stability of portfolio risk 基金规模与投资组合风险的稳定性
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Journal of Risk Pub Date : 2020-08-28 DOI: 10.21314/jor.2020.439
Martin Ewen, M. Rieger
{"title":"Fund size and the stability of portfolio risk","authors":"Martin Ewen, M. Rieger","doi":"10.21314/jor.2020.439","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/jor.2020.439","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46697,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46662630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Range-based Volatility Forecasting: A Multiplicative Component Conditional Autoregressive Range Model 基于区间的波动率预测:一个乘法分量条件自回归区间模型
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Journal of Risk Pub Date : 2020-06-04 DOI: 10.21314/jor.2020.433
Haibin Xie
{"title":"Range-based Volatility Forecasting: A Multiplicative Component Conditional Autoregressive Range Model","authors":"Haibin Xie","doi":"10.21314/jor.2020.433","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/jor.2020.433","url":null,"abstract":"To capture the \"long-memory\" effect in volatility, a multiplicative component conditional autoregressive range (MCCARR) model is proposed. We show theoretically that the MCCARR model can capture the long-memory effect well. An empirical study is performed on the Standard & Poor's 500 index, and the results show that the MCCARR model outperforms both conditional autoregressive range and heterogeneous autoregressive models for in-sample and out-of-sample volatility forecasting.","PeriodicalId":46697,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46809866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Forecasting Bitcoin Returns: Is There a Role for the US–China Trade War? 预测比特币回报:中美贸易战会起作用吗?
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Journal of Risk Pub Date : 2020-01-09 DOI: 10.21314/JOR.2021.001
Vasilios Plakandaras, Elie Bouri, Rangan Gupta
{"title":"Forecasting Bitcoin Returns: Is There a Role for the US–China Trade War?","authors":"Vasilios Plakandaras, Elie Bouri, Rangan Gupta","doi":"10.21314/JOR.2021.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/JOR.2021.001","url":null,"abstract":"Previous studies provide evidence that trade related uncertainty tends to predict an increase in Bitcoin returns. In this paper, we extend the related literature by examining whether the information on the U.S. – China trade war can be used to forecast the future path of Bitcoin returns controlling for various explanatory variables. We apply ordinary least square (OLS) regression, support vector regression (SVR), and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) techniques that stem from the field of machine learning, and find weak evidence of the role of the trade war in forecasting Bitcoin returns. Given that out-of-sample tests are more reliable than in-sample tests, our results tend to suggest that future Bitcoin returns are unaffected by trade related uncertainties, and investors can use Bitcoin as a safe haven in this context.","PeriodicalId":46697,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42510063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 13
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