Hassnian Ali , Ahmet Faruk Aysan , Hasmet Gokirmak
{"title":"A retrospective evaluation of Borsa Istanbul review using a machine learning data analytical approach","authors":"Hassnian Ali , Ahmet Faruk Aysan , Hasmet Gokirmak","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2024.12.019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2024.12.019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study conducts a detailed examination of <em>Borsa Istanbul Review</em> (<em>BIR</em>) from 2013 to 2023, employing bibliometric analysis, regression analysis, and structural topic modeling (STM) to explore its scholarly impact, authorship patterns, and thematic evolution. Our bibliometric analysis reveals a significant increase in <em>BIR</em>'s publication volume and citation count, as well as a marked expansion in its author collaboration network, with notable contributions from Turkish and East Asian scholars. Through regression analysis, we identify several factors—such as article length, age, position in the issue (lead article status), regional author affiliation, title characteristics (length and novelty), and the presence of multiple authors, keywords, figures, and tables—as significant determinants of citation rates. Furthermore, STM reveals ten dominant themes in <em>BIR</em>, highlighting key focus areas, such as firm dynamics, market and country growth, financial health, and stock market returns. This comprehensive analysis sheds light on <em>BIR</em>'s evolving scholarly landscape and offers valuable insights for its editorial board, stakeholders, and the broader academic community interested in finance and economics. This enhanced understanding of <em>BIR</em>'s trends and themes is a crucial resource for navigating the wider finance research domain.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"25 1","pages":"Pages 1-20"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143182855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Population aging and corporate cash holdings: Empirical evidence from Chinese listed companies","authors":"Yue Zhang , Qizhen Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2024.12.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2024.12.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the effect of population aging on corporate cash holdings using a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2007 to 2021. These results indicate that population aging increases corporate cash holdings. The mechanism analysis suggests that increased labor adjustment costs and intensified labor market competition are realistic paths through which population aging affects corporate cash holdings. We also find that the impact of population aging on corporate cash holdings is more significant when firms are labor intensive, state-owned, digitally less transformed, financially constrained, and have a lower market position.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"25 1","pages":"Pages 137-148"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143182856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The impact of personality, behavior, and geography on participation in the private pension system in Türkiye: A machine learning approach","authors":"Can Verberi , Muhittin Kaplan","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2024.12.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2024.12.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines regional disparities in the factors that affect participation in the Private Pension System (PPS) in Türkiye, focusing on sociodemographic characteristics, personality traits and behavior, and pension and financial literacy. The behavioral factors identified encompass procrastination, locus of control, pessimism, compulsive buying, and time perspective, and the personality traits include openness, agreeableness, extraversion, neuroticism, and conscientiousness. The study employs data on two provinces in Türkiye, Şırnak and Istanbul, and uses XGBoost and Tree SHAP algorithms and a probit model. Our findings indicate that personality traits such as openness, agreeableness, and conscientiousness have a positive influence on individual engagement in pension plans, whereas extraversion has a negative impact. Additionally, basic pension literacy is more influential than advanced pension literacy. The results also show that regional geography significantly influences personality and behavioral factors. Finally, a perception of protection is a critical factor in PPS participation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"25 1","pages":"Pages 149-162"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does sentiment in Fed governors’ speeches shape US equity market sectors?","authors":"Asma Arshad , Muhammad Suhail Rizwan","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2024.12.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2024.12.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the responsiveness of US equity sectors to the sentiments conveyed by the speeches of the governors of the US Federal Reserve (the Fed). Using principal component analysis of the scores of four Lexicon dictionaries to analyze speeches from June 1, 1996, to September 30, 2023, we find convincing evidence of a significant reaction to the sentiment index by the consumer discretionary, financial, information technology, raw materials, real estate, and utilities sectors. This reaction is asymmetric, as negative sentiments affect the US sectors more quickly than positive sentiments. Among the sectors, communication services, industrial, consumer staples, and energy sectors only respond significantly to negative sentiments. Furthermore, speeches by the Fed chairman have a greater effect, as shown by the significant reaction of eight sectors, followed by speeches by the vice chairman affecting five and speeches by the governor influencing only three. These results showing the market's asymmetrical response in terms of the types and sources of sentiment have valuable implications for a broad group of market participants.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"25 1","pages":"Pages 79-93"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143182859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Simon Cottrell , Jinghua Lei , Yihong Ma , Sarath Delpachitra
{"title":"US Treasury market default risk and global interbank liquidity risk","authors":"Simon Cottrell , Jinghua Lei , Yihong Ma , Sarath Delpachitra","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2024.12.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2024.12.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using Credit Default Swaps (CDS) on sovereign bonds, we investigate whether US sovereign default risk is a greater driving factor of domestic interbank funding risk than domestic sovereign default risk across the five Libor counties including Canada and Australia. We use equivalent-country interbank LIBOR-OIS spreads as a proxy for domestic interbank funding risk. Our results show evidence of US sovereign default-risk spillover into global interbank funding markets and that domestic sovereign default risk may not always drive equivalent-home-country interbank funding risk. Our analysis provides important insights into the channels through which sovereign default risk can impact financial stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"25 1","pages":"Pages 66-78"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143182819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Determinants of financial inclusion in sub-Saharan Africa and OECD countries","authors":"Samuel Fiifi Eshun , Evžen Kočenda","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2024.11.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2024.11.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a dynamic panel data analysis, we explore the factors that influence financial inclusion in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and other regions, using member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) as a benchmark. We employ a system generalized methods of moments estimator and assess 31 SSA and 38 OECD countries from 2000 to 2021. We show that the literacy rate, trade openness, political stability, bank efficiency, income, and remittances are key factors with various impacts across regions. We further show that various dimensions of a financial system (access, usage, and quality) are impacted by different indicators and to varying extent. We account for events during the period, such as the global financial crisis and COVID-19 outbreak. We highlight the importance of quality literacy policies and a more efficient financial system in promoting financial inclusion. We recommend improving trade regulatory frameworks that promote trade openness through stronger institutions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"25 1","pages":"Pages 34-56"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143182821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The impact of ESG rating disagreement on the financial performance of environmentally sensitive industry companies worldwide","authors":"Miray Tabur , Recep Bildik","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.01.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.01.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many studies have examined the relationship between environmental, social and governance performance (ESGP) and financial performance (FP) across various sectors. However, the statistical results of previous studies exhibit variability, including significant and insignificant positive or negative relationships. Moreover, the effects of using ESG ratings from different databases are rarely considered. This paper investigates the sensitivity of data results from different ESG rating agencies by analyzing the ESG ratings of the same companies from the Bloomberg and Refinitiv databases over a 10-year period, covering 464 companies in environmentally sensitive sectors worldwide. Through examining the relationship between ESGP and FP, our research offers potentially valuable insights into the consequences of using different ESG ratings from different rating agencies. The results indicate that using different ESG scores from different rating agencies significantly alters the main results of such studies in the literature and, consequently, influences researchers' and investors' decision-making processes, depending on which ESG data source is utilized.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"25 3","pages":"Pages 435-448"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143859794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"U.S. options exchange-traded funds: Performance dynamics and managerial expertise","authors":"Elroi Hadad , Davinder Malhotra , Robert McLeod","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.01.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.01.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the performance dynamics of U.S. options exchange-traded funds (ETFs), whose investment strategy involves options contracts. Analyzing monthly returns data from February 2014 to April 2023, we evaluate the risk-adjusted performance, volatility, and market sensitivity of U.S. options ETFs relative to U.S. and global equities. Using Carhart's four-factor model, we find that U.S. options ETFs yield lower monthly returns than those of U.S. equities but outperform global equities, suggesting potential diversification benefits. While U.S. options ETFs underperformed during the COVID-19 pandemic, they demonstrated resilience thereafter, offering higher rewards for downside risk. We also find that managerial expertise may not consistently improve performance or market timing. These results remain robust across various checks, including analyzing lagged public information, adopting multiple estimation methods, and investigating diverse market conditions. This study contributes to understanding the performance dynamics of options ETFs, emphasizing the importance of market conditions and managerial strategies in investment decisions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"25 3","pages":"Pages 423-434"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143859793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The good, the better and the challenging: Insights into predicting high-growth firms using machine learning","authors":"Sermet Pekin, Aykut Şengül","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2024.12.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2024.12.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study aims to classify high-growth firms using several machine learning algorithms, including K-Nearest Neighbors, Logistic Regression with L1 (Lasso) and L2 (Ridge) Regularization, XGBoost, Gradient Descent, Naive Bayes and Random Forest. Leveraging a dataset composed of financial metrics and firm characteristics between 2009 and 2022 with 1,318,799 unique firms (averaging 554,178 annually), we evaluate the performance of each model using metrics such as MCC, ROC AUC, accuracy, precision, recall and F1-score. In our study, ROC AUC values ranged from 0.53 to 0.87 for employee-high growth and from 0.53 to 0.91 for turnover-high growth, depending on the method used. Our findings indicate that XGBoost achieves the highest performance, followed by Random Forest and Logistic Regression, demonstrating their effectiveness in distinguishing between high-growth and non-high-growth firms. Conversely, KNN and Naive Bayes yield lower accuracy. Furthermore, our findings reveal that growth opportunity emerges as the most significant factor in our study. This research contributes valuable insights to financial analysts and investors in identifying high-growth firms and underscores the potential of machine learning in economic prediction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"24 ","pages":"Pages 47-60"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143347779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Stock price prediction using the Sand Cat Swarm Optimization and an improved deep Long Short Term Memory network","authors":"Burak Gülmez","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2024.12.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2024.12.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Stock price prediction remains a complex challenge in financial markets. This study introduces a novel Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model optimized by Sand Cat Swarm Optimization (SCSO) for stock price prediction. The research evaluates multiple algorithms including ANN, LSTM variants, Auto-ARIMA, Gradient Boosted Trees, DeepAR, N-BEATS, N-HITS, and the proposed LSTM-SCSO using DAX index data from 2018 to 2023. Model performance was assessed through Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, and out-of-sample R2 metrics. Statistical significance was validated using Model Confidence Set analysis with 5000 bootstrap replications. Results demonstrate LSTM-SCSO's superior performance across all evaluation metrics. The model achieved an annualized return of 66.25% compared to the DAX index's 47.45%, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.9091. The integration of technical indicators and macroeconomic variables enhanced the model's predictive capabilities. These findings establish LSTM-SCSO as an effective tool for stock price prediction, offering practical value for investment decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"24 ","pages":"Pages 32-46"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143347780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}