Borsa Istanbul Review最新文献

{"title":"Economic uncertainty, financial inclusion, and income inequality in developing countries: Evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis","authors":"Siong Hook Law,&nbsp;Mohamad Fazli Sabri,&nbsp;Sylviana Maya Damayanti,&nbsp;Irwan Trinugroho,&nbsp;Arinda Mentari Putri","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.11.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.11.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates how financial inclusion moderates the impact of economic uncertainty on income inequality in 58 developing countries from 2004 to 2022. Using an endogenous dynamic panel threshold model, the findings reveal a threshold effect: economic uncertainty reduces income inequality only when financial inclusion surpasses a certain level. Below this threshold, uncertainty worsens inequality. Financial inclusion reduces income inequality where the effect is pronounced after exceeding the threshold. These results underscore that the relationship between economic uncertainty and income inequality is conditional on financial inclusion. The study emphasizes that enhancing financial inclusion is essential for shielding vulnerable economies from the inequality-amplifying effects of uncertainty, and that this relationship holds under various income inequality, financial inclusion measures and estimation techniques.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100761"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148694305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Financial development, financial inclusion and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission mechanism in Africa","authors":"Olajide O. Oyadeyi","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.016","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.016","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examined the nexus between financial development, financial inclusion, and monetary transmission mechanisms in Africa. The study employed annual data on 54 African countries from 2004 to 2023, using econometric techniques including Driscoll and Kraay fixed effects models, quantile regression models, panel structural vector autoregressive models, and the JKS causality tests. The findings revealed that financial development reduces inefficiencies in the interest rate and inflation expectations channels, enhancing transmission effectiveness. It also strengthens the wealth and collateral effects in the asset price channel and plays a role in expanding credit availability. However, financial inclusion improves monetary transmission efficiency across the interest rates, credit and inflation expectations channels. Furthermore, the findings showed that the interest rate channel had the most significant impact on output. Therefore, the study suggests that policymakers should leverage financial development and financial inclusion to strengthen growth-oriented channels and prioritise interest rate management to drive growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100743"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148694307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Explainable artificial intelligence-driven fraud detection: Behavioral proxies of digital financial literacy in online payment models","authors":"Gökçe Sinem Erbuğa,&nbsp;Ceyda Ünal","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100840","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100840","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research explores the relationship between exposure to online payment fraud and Digital Financial Literacy (DFL) through Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) frameworks. The rapid adoption of accessible digital payment methods has disproportionately heightened the risk of financial fraud for individuals exhibiting limited financial literacy or suboptimal digital behaviors. To quantify these risks, this study proposes a novel “Financial Negligence Score” (FNS) as a behavioral proxy to measure situational vulnerability, user attentiveness, and risk awareness during online financial transactions. Machine learning algorithms and statistical models—including Random Forest, XGBoost, CatBoost, and Logistic Regression—are deployed to evaluate the predictive capacity of these behavioral indicators. The empirical findings indicate that transactions characterized by financially inattentive behaviors exhibit a significantly higher probability of fraudulent outcomes. Furthermore, integrating the financial negligence score substantially improves the predictive performance and reliability of fraud detection models, particularly within ensemble learning architectures. Model interpretations derived via SHAP analysis confirm that behavioral traits serve as critical features in fraud classification. This study contributes to the existing literature by: (1) operationalizing an innovative, data-driven behavioral proxy for DFL; (2) leveraging XAI techniques to elucidate the underlying mechanics of fraud prediction; and (3) providing robust empirical evidence that elevated digital financial awareness directly correlates with a reduced likelihood of fraud victimization. These insights offer valuable implications for targeted financial education, dynamic fraud prevention strategies, and the design of safer digital financial ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100840"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148694309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Financial cognition, behavior, and well-being in a generational context: A Bayesian-SEM perspective from Türkiye","authors":"Meryem Öztürk,&nbsp;Durmuş Yıldırım,&nbsp;Miraç Eren","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100841","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100841","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates differences in pathways to financial well-being across generations in Türkiye by combining a Bayesian network analysis and structural equation modeling using the family resource management theory. Using nationally representative data from 2405 students engaged in open and distance education, the study examines how financial knowledge, financial attitudes, and risk tolerance translate into financial behavior and, ultimately, financial well-being across Generations X, Y, and Z. The findings reveal significant generational differences in the pathways that link financial cognition, behavior, and well-being outcomes. Gen Y has the most efficient conversion of financial cognition into financial well-being, whereas Gen X experiences higher money-management stress despite having a relatively high level of knowledge. Gen Z demonstrates high cognitive readiness but unstable behavioral patterns, particularly in risk-related decisions. Financial behavior emerges as the most influential determinant of financial well-being across all cohorts, reinforcing the theoretical centrality of behavioral processes and highlighting the limitations of knowledge-centric financial education models. The findings also suggest a potential “financial awareness paradox,” in which greater financial knowledge may increase perceptions of economic vulnerability, particularly in Türkiye’s inflationary and economically volatile environment.</div><div>Methodologically, this study presents a novel hybrid analytical framework by combining the predictive strength of Bayesian networks with the confirmatory rigor of structural equation modeling. The combination of exploratory and confirmatory approaches enables robust cross-validation of complex financial behavior mechanisms, whereas measurement invariance analyses support the validity of cross-generational comparisons. Our findings contribute to the literature by demonstrating that generational context shapes financial behavior mechanisms and by highlighting the need for generation-specific financial education and policy interventions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100841"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148694310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Financial literacy and financial well-being: Empirical evidence from Romania","authors":"Maria-Stefania Anghel,&nbsp;Maria-Miruna Pochea","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.100776","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.100776","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the relationship between financial literacy and financial well-being using nationally representative data from Romania. Employing the ordinary least squares method, the analysis reveals a robust and positive association between the two variables. The findings indicate that individuals with higher levels of financial literacy tend to report greater financial well-being. The association is particularly strong for basic financial literacy, showing the importance of basic financial knowledge for people's well-being. This relationship remains significant across various sociodemographic groups. Overall, the results offer insights for developing targeted financial education programs and highlight the importance of enhancing basic financial skills in achieving meaningful improvements in individual well-being.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100776"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148694312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Driving industrial growth: The role of fintech and bigtech credit in financially dependent sectors","authors":"Shoaib Khan,&nbsp;Tahir Akhtar,&nbsp;Habib Hussain Khan,&nbsp;Showkat Ahmad Shah,&nbsp;Ayesha Anwar","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.11.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.11.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of fintech credit and bigtech credit, collectively referred to as total alternative credit, on the growth and share of industry value added across 70 countries from 2013 to 2019. Data on alternative finance are drawn from Cornelli et al. (2023), while industry value-added statistics are obtained from the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). The findings indicate that total alternative credit is positively associated with both the growth and the share of industry value added. Furthermore, industries that are more dependent on external finance exhibit lower value-added growth and a smaller share of the industry relative to less dependent industries. However, these financially dependent industries benefit disproportionately from alternative credit, as reflected in the positive interaction between alternative finance and financial dependence. The role of alternative credit is also found to vary across macroeconomic contexts, including bank competition, financial development, economic growth, the regulatory environment, and financial freedom. Overall, the results are robust to alternative estimation techniques and support the theoretical argument that digital platforms enhance financial innovation and inclusion by reducing information asymmetry and financing costs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100762"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148694308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the impact of financial literacy and financial inclusion on financial stability: An analysis using machine learning approaches","authors":"Md Emran Hosen,&nbsp;Md Nur Alam Siddik,&nbsp;Md Firoze Miah","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.11.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.11.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The main objective of this study is to examine the intersection between financial literacy, financial inclusion, and financial stability. Using cross-sectional data on 142 economies, we employ ordinary least squares with robust standard errors in performing linear support vector and quantile regressions to analyze the results. We find that financial literacy positively impacts financial stability across the full sample and in high- and middle-income economies. Our findings also reveal that financial inclusion and combining with financial literacy significantly promote financial stability. They also indicate that macroeconomic variables—such as the size of the financial sector, government debt, and interest rates—have a significant effect on financial stability. As an extension, our findings are confirmed using a generalized additive model, which accounts for nonlinear trends. This study outlines effective policies and practical implications that would boost financial literacy and financial stability in high-, middle-, and low-income countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100763"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148694311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of digital financial literacy on individual's experience of digital payment adoption: The case of Turkiye","authors":"Mohamed Cherif El Amri,&nbsp;Mustafa Omar Mohammed,&nbsp;Ayman Mohammad Bekiroğlu","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100809","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100809","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Türkiye's digital finance landscape has experienced substantial growth in recent years, with a surge in digital banking, mobile apps, and non-cash transactions. Yet, the literature has largely remained silent on the factors contributing to digital financial literacy in Türkiye. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the relationship between digital finance literacy and individual experience of digital payment adoption. It has employed a quantitative approach using an online questionnaire survey through Whatsapp groups registered in Türkiye. The analysis of three hundred and twenty useable questionnaires collected through convenience sampling was done using SPSS, and AMOS version 25 - a Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) technique. The results suggested positive relationships between personal experience and access to financial services, beliefs about digital financial services, and safety measures of digital financial services. The study's findings provide interesting insights of the progress of digital finance literacy in Türkiye.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100809"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148694313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Two-layer execution architecture for illiquid SME equity markets","authors":"Pascal Egloff,&nbsp;Rajesh Tharyan,&nbsp;Sabrina Graf,&nbsp;Thomas Krabichler","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100833","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100833","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Thin equity markets for small and medium-sized enterprises often have sparse order flow that cannot sustain continuous quoting. This study proposes a two-layer execution architecture with a modified constant product market maker (modCPMM) designed to provide baseline immediacy for ordinary marketable order flow and a secondary request-for-quote–style execution layer handling residual, block-sized, or pool-inefficient trades. The modCPMM pricing rule builds on a break-even–oriented transaction cost logic and embeds a surcharge that depends on order and pool sizes. Thus, it offers a structured basis for reserve-based liquidity provision in a traditional asset setting. A restricted-information calibration and screening analysis was conducted using Swiss OTC-X trades, spread snapshots, and brokerage commissions as a case study. Implementation plausibility depends strongly on benchmark execution costs, the targeted service region, and issuer scale. This study shows how service region targets can be translated into pool capital requirements and screening rules for candidate securities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 4","pages":"Article 100833"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148528518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From research to launch: Tracing and mapping developmental pathways in CBDC progression","authors":"Halil Tunç","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100832","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100832","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The race to issue Central Bank Digital Currencies is underway, yet countries face strikingly divergent trajectories, with some experimenting boldly while others proceeding cautiously. This study examines why Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) projects progress unevenly across countries by framing CBDC progression as a policy–technology–behavioral system. Using a panel of 133 countries over the period 2017–2024, spanning stages from early research to live retail launches, the analysis integrates digital diffusion theory, behavioral trust models, and a public policy innovation perspective to examine cross-country heterogeneity. CBDC progression is analyzed using a mixed-effects ordered logit model, complemented by development-specific estimations and robustness checks. Understanding these divergent pathways is directly relevant to central banks, particularly in emerging and developing economies, as they seek to sequence CBDC reforms amid institutional and digital constraints.</div><div>The findings reveal three patterns. First, technological readiness and digital trust infrastructure, particularly internet usage, cybersecurity preparedness, and digital literacy, are consistently associated with more advanced stages of CBDC progression. Second, regulatory quality and public digital participation exhibit consistently negative associations, in line with regulatory prudence and payment system pressures, although alternative institutional and political explanations cannot be excluded. Third, development-specific results indicate distinct pathways: diffusion- and skills-related associations in advanced economies; connectivity- and cyber-resilience-related associations in developing economies; and mobile-first but cybersecurity-threshold-constrained patterns in least developed countries. Overall, CBDC progression reflects the interaction among technological capacity, institutional conditions, and regulatory and legitimacy considerations, highlighting differentiated, context-sensitive associations rather than uniform causal drivers of CBDC policy design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 4","pages":"Article 100832"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148528533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}