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How uncertainty transmits across Turkish equity sectors 不确定性如何在土耳其股市传导
IF 7.1 2区 经济学
Borsa Istanbul Review Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2026.100806
Eyad Abdel-Hafez , Nigar Taspinar , Baris Memduh Eren
{"title":"How uncertainty transmits across Turkish equity sectors","authors":"Eyad Abdel-Hafez ,&nbsp;Nigar Taspinar ,&nbsp;Baris Memduh Eren","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100806","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100806","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study we investigate the asymmetric and state-dependent transmission of the Economic Country-Specific Uncertainty Index (ECSUI) for Türkiye to sectoral equity returns on the Borsa Istanbul using a quantile-on-quantile connectedness framework and monthly data from 2006 to 2024. The results show that the ECSUI consistently operates as a dominant net transmitter of negative shocks, with substantial heterogeneity across sectors. Technology exhibits the greatest vulnerability, followed by Industrials and Services, while Banks and Financials demonstrate comparatively moderate but still meaningful exposure. Dynamic spillover patterns intensify during major stress events including the 2018 currency crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, confirming that uncertainty-driven contagion becomes most pronounced under tail conditions. Overall, the findings highlight policy credibility and transparent macroeconomic governance's critical role in mitigating uncertainty propagation and strengthening sectoral resilience in emerging markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 3","pages":"Article 100806"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147807874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Machine learning for risk profiling: An analysis of pension fund participants 用于风险分析的机器学习：养老基金参与者的分析
IF 7.1 2区 经济学
Borsa Istanbul Review Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2026.100800
Ahmet Göncü , Tolga U. Kuzubaş , Burak Saltoğlu
{"title":"Machine learning for risk profiling: An analysis of pension fund participants","authors":"Ahmet Göncü ,&nbsp;Tolga U. Kuzubaş ,&nbsp;Burak Saltoğlu","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100800","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100800","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the use of machine learning (ML) techniques for profiling the risk of pension fund participants. We analyze a dataset of 81,563 individual investors in a major Turkish pension fund company (2018–2022), comparing various ML models to the regulatory benchmark. Using recursive feature elimination, we identify self-reported risk attitudes and age – with a nonlinear relationship – as the most important predictors of actual portfolio risk. Our cross-validation results indicate that boosting methods yield modest improvements in predictive accuracy relative to the regulatory risk score. Notably, the performance from using just four variables is comparable to that from using the full questionnaire. Although the overall explanatory power remains modest across all models (<span><math><msup><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup></math></span> of 0.13–0.17), the findings suggest that ML can enhance risk profiling by identifying informative variables and capturing nonlinear relationships. These results have practical implications for designing more efficient risk assessment tools in pension fund settings, potentially simplifying questionnaires without sacrificing predictive accuracy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 3","pages":"Article 100800"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147807872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Investigating spillovers of education policy: The impact on household saving behavior 调查教育政策的溢出效应：对家庭储蓄行为的影响
IF 7.1 2区 经济学
Borsa Istanbul Review Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2026.100799
Pelin Akyol , Marie Leka
{"title":"Investigating spillovers of education policy: The impact on household saving behavior","authors":"Pelin Akyol ,&nbsp;Marie Leka","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100799","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100799","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Exploiting a legislative change that increased mandatory schooling from five to eight years in Türkiye, we investigate the impact of the reform on household saving decisions. We find that while the reform increased the education level of both men and women, its impact on household saving behavior was limited: we estimate a positive impact of this reform only on gold and retirement savings. We investigate several potential explanations and argue that low financial literacy is the main reason behind the ineffectiveness of the reform in this context. Our results suggest a limitation of the scope of policies that only increase the years of schooling for financial market participation and highlight the importance of the inclusion of financial training in education curricula.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 3","pages":"Article 100799"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147807877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial-judicial specialization and corporate long-term investment: Evidence from the establishment of financial courts in China 金融司法专业化与企业长期投资：来自中国金融法院设立的证据
IF 7.1 2区 经济学
Borsa Istanbul Review Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2026.100819
Jiao Hong , Jianling Xu , Zhiyuan Zhou , Xuezhen Lv
{"title":"Financial-judicial specialization and corporate long-term investment: Evidence from the establishment of financial courts in China","authors":"Jiao Hong ,&nbsp;Jianling Xu ,&nbsp;Zhiyuan Zhou ,&nbsp;Xuezhen Lv","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100819","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100819","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study uses the staggered establishment of financial courts in China as an exogenous shock to investigate the impact of judicial specialization on long-term investment. Empirical results indicate that the establishment of financial courts significantly promotes firms’ long-term investment. Mechanism analyses show that financial courts improve firms’ access to debt financing, mitigate agency problems, and enhance information transparency, thereby promoting firms’ long-term investment. Further cross-sectional analyses reveal that these positive effects are more pronounced among non-state-owned firms and those with tighter financing constraints, weaker internal controls, and lower analyst coverage. By underscoring the crucial role of financial judicial specialization in shaping firms’ investment decisions, this study provides new evidence that a sound financial judicial system can function as an institutional mechanism to promote sustainable growth and long-term value creation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 3","pages":"Article 100819"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147807918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
From emotion to action: How intraday investor sentiment drives market microstructure 从情绪到行动：日内投资者情绪如何驱动市场微观结构
IF 7.1 2区 经济学
Borsa Istanbul Review Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.100775
Qing Liu , Yanfeng Liu , Hosung Son
{"title":"From emotion to action: How intraday investor sentiment drives market microstructure","authors":"Qing Liu ,&nbsp;Yanfeng Liu ,&nbsp;Hosung Son","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.100775","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.100775","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study introduces the concept of “investor sentiment slices” to capture distinct emotional patterns within a single trading day. Using 4.41 million social media posts and natural language processing, we construct high-frequency sentiment indices representing four emotional states: adaptation, anchoring, process, and dormant sentiment. Regression analyses reveal that anchoring and process sentiments drive stock price movements by signaling market expectations, while adaptation and dormant sentiments reflect emotional buffering and accumulation. Importantly, the effects of these sentiment slices vary with market conditions: in pessimistic markets, investor behavior is dominated by emotionally anchored judgments, whereas in recovering markets, process sentiment becomes more influential, supporting rational integration of information. This temporally structured framework connects psychological theory with behavioral finance, showing how intraday sentiment dynamics affect trading and price formation. Our findings offer new insights into the sequential, condition-dependent nature of investor emotions and their role in shaping market behavior throughout the trading day.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 2","pages":"Article 100775"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147418338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
From synchronicity to fragility: How corporate ESG performance reshapes systemic risk 从同步性到脆弱性：企业ESG绩效如何重塑系统性风险
IF 7.1 2区 经济学
Borsa Istanbul Review Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.100773
Zhiquan Shao , Bo Yu
{"title":"From synchronicity to fragility: How corporate ESG performance reshapes systemic risk","authors":"Zhiquan Shao ,&nbsp;Bo Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.100773","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.100773","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Building on a framework in which firms are interconnected through fire-sale spillover mechanisms, we argue that strong ESG performance acts as a protective buffer for firms with weak financial performance against stock price declines. This reduces the dispersion of asset returns, thereby reducing cross-firm heterogeneity and inadvertently strengthening systemic linkages. To empirically examine how ESG performance reshapes systemic risk, we develop a novel network-based granular instrumental variable (GIV) that weights rating shocks by agency centrality to address endogeneity concerns. Consistent with theoretical predictions, our empirical results reveal that while superior ESG performance significantly mitigates individual tail risk, it simultaneously intensifies systemic linkages among firms. These effects are amplified when the information environment enhances the perceived credibility of ESG signals. Our findings illuminate the dual nature of ESG in systemic risk dynamics: while providing firm-level protection, ESG performance may inadvertently amplify system-wide fragility through enhanced interconnectedness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 2","pages":"Article 100773"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147418337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Geopolitical risk, proximity, and corporate cash holdings: Evidence from Korea 地缘政治风险、邻近性和企业现金持有量：来自韩国的证据
IF 7.1 2区 经济学
Borsa Istanbul Review Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2026.100788
Fariha Jahan, Doojin Ryu
{"title":"Geopolitical risk, proximity, and corporate cash holdings: Evidence from Korea","authors":"Fariha Jahan,&nbsp;Doojin Ryu","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100788","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100788","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how geographic proximity shapes the impact of geopolitical risk on the cash-holding behavior of Korean firms. Geopolitical risks in proximate partner countries induce stronger precautionary cash responses than comparable domestic shocks. Geopolitical risks associated with inter-Korean relations also influence firms' liquidity decisions, even in the presence of limited and episodic economic integration. The semiconductor industry exhibits heightened sensitivity to foreign geopolitical risks, although the effects are not uniform across industries. Larger firms and firms with higher foreign ownership tend to hold lower cash reserves. Geopolitical risks in strategically and economically critical proximate countries emerge as a driver of firms' liquidity policies, underscoring the importance of regional risk monitoring, governance quality, and targeted financial mechanisms for exposed industries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 2","pages":"Article 100788"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147418418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Religious investors and equity crowdfunding success 宗教投资者和股权众筹的成功
IF 7.1 2区 经济学
Borsa Istanbul Review Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2026.100783
Murat Yaş
{"title":"Religious investors and equity crowdfunding success","authors":"Murat Yaş","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100783","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100783","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how Islamic religiosity influences equity crowdfunding success through messages on crowdfunding platforms in Türkiye, which lacks a sharia governance framework for financial technology (fintech). As the first empirical analysis of the role of Islamic religiosity in equity crowdfunding performance, it contributes to the literature. Using data from 95 crowdfunding campaigns conducted between 2021 and 2024 (79 Islamic and 16 conventional), we show that Islamic labeling and messaging affect campaign outcomes. Our findings reveal that Islamic equity crowdfunding campaigns attract 37.1 percent higher funding and 11.7 percent more investors, with higher success rates, than campaigns by their conventional counterparts. Explicit signals of sharia compliance though messaging enhance crowdfunding performance, as the volume of these messages is positively correlated with funding outcomes. The study demonstrates that religious signaling reduces information asymmetry and builds trust among faith-driven investors, providing crucial insights for platforms that operate in markets without a formal Islamic finance framework.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 2","pages":"Article 100783"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147418419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Choosing not to borrow: Imprinting effects of informality on firms’ credit self-rationing 选择不借贷：非正式性对企业信贷自我配给的影响
IF 7.1 2区 经济学
Borsa Istanbul Review Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2026.100785
Wenwen Jin
{"title":"Choosing not to borrow: Imprinting effects of informality on firms’ credit self-rationing","authors":"Wenwen Jin","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100785","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2026.100785","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While firm financing constraints have been widely studied, limited attention has been paid to credit self-rationing. Based on the imprinting hypothesis and firm-level data from 30 countries, this study finds that informal experience significantly increases the likelihood of avoiding formal credit. This effect operates via structural and behavioral imprints shaped by early institutional exposure. Specifically, structural informality and weakened compliance behaviors strengthen credit self-rationing, whereas no evidence exists that cognitive imprints operate as an effective mediating channel. The effect of informal experience is more pronounced among non-female-led firms and firms operating in countries with weaker business environments. Moreover, the effect is most pronounced among firms facing severe financing obstacles, suggesting that avoidance motives outweigh optimization motives. The study provides demand-side evidence on the developmental origins of financing behavior in emerging and developing economies and offers implications for improving financial inclusion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 2","pages":"Article 100785"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147418414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The asymmetric effect of capital flows and credit default swap spreads on the US dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate 资本流动和信用违约互换价差对美元/土耳其里拉汇率的不对称影响
IF 7.1 2区 经济学
Borsa Istanbul Review Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.100774
Emel Akbal , Irfan Civcir
{"title":"The asymmetric effect of capital flows and credit default swap spreads on the US dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate","authors":"Emel Akbal ,&nbsp;Irfan Civcir","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.100774","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.100774","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the asymmetric effects of capital flows and Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads on the US dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate employing the Nonlinear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) methodology. We used a Turkish monthly dataset covering the period from 2003 to 2022. The findings indicate that capital flows exert an asymmetric impact on the exchange rate under investigation. Capital inflows and outflows exhibit notable significance in both the long and short run. Capital outflows exert a more significant impact on the exchange rate than capital inflows. Furthermore, in the long run, both capital inflows and outflows have a greater effect on the US dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate than in the short term. The results also indicate that both in short-term and long-term the CDS spreads play a notably effective role in determining exchange rates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 2","pages":"Article 100774"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147418339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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