Empirica最新文献_第2页

The non-linear impact of monetary policy on shifts in economic policy uncertainty: evidence from the United States of America 货币政策对经济政策不确定性变化的非线性影响：来自美利坚合众国的证据

IF 1.3 4区经济学

Empirica Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI: 10.1007/s10663-024-09618-y

Bogdan Dima, Ștefana Maria Dima

{"title":"The non-linear impact of monetary policy on shifts in economic policy uncertainty: evidence from the United States of America","authors":"Bogdan Dima, Ștefana Maria Dima","doi":"10.1007/s10663-024-09618-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-024-09618-y","url":null,"abstract":"A stochastic volatility estimation of VIX index’s latent volatility is used for the United States of America, as a proxy for the adjustments in the levels of investors’ uncertainty related to current and future economic policies. The impact of monetary policy stance on such measure is examined in the framework of the distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). We place this analysis in the literature stream emphasizing the various sources of heterogeneity concerning investors’ expectations. The main finding is that the monetary policy does impact non-linearly the adjustments in investors’ predictions. While a tighter monetary policy does generally contribute to an increase in VIX’s latent volatility, the shape of such effect varies across different GLM and GAM specifications of DLNM. This outcome remains robust, even if: (1) we control for the global price of Brent crude and consumers’ confidence; (2) we use, instead of the stochastic framework, a Markov-switching GARCH-based estimator; or (3) we replace the monetary policy instrument with monetary policy uncertainty. We argue that accounting for its nonlinear effects on financial markets is of critical importance for the design of a monetary policy pursuing global financial stability.","PeriodicalId":46526,"journal":{"name":"Empirica","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141165504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The impact of artificial intelligence in the early retirement decision 人工智能对提前退休决策的影响

IF 1.3 4区经济学

Empirica Pub Date : 2024-05-09 DOI: 10.1007/s10663-024-09613-3

Pablo Casas, Concepción Román

{"title":"The impact of artificial intelligence in the early retirement decision","authors":"Pablo Casas, Concepción Román","doi":"10.1007/s10663-024-09613-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-024-09613-3","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on early retirement (ER) decisions in Europe. For the analysis, we utilize microdata from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, along with occupation-level data on AI advances and AI exposure. Initially, we investigate the influence of AI advances and AI exposure separately, finding in both instances a significant reduction in ER likelihood, though this only applies to workers with higher education. Subsequently, we explore the interaction between AI advances and AI exposure concerning ER probability. This interaction proves critical in determining AI’s impact on ER transitions. Specifically, we observe a significant reduction in ER probabilities for workers whose occupations exhibit high levels of AI advances and high expectations for further implementation of this technology in the future. Finally, we jointly analyse the interaction between AI advances, AI exposure, and education level. This analysis highlights that workers’ ER probabilities may either increase or decrease in response to the AI revolution, depending on their education level and the characteristics of their occupations in terms of AI advances and AI exposure.","PeriodicalId":46526,"journal":{"name":"Empirica","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140929967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Drivers of European housing prices in the new millennium: demand, financial, and supply determinants 新千年欧洲住房价格的驱动因素：需求、金融和供应决定因素

IF 1.3 4区经济学

Empirica Pub Date : 2024-04-15 DOI: 10.1007/s10663-024-09611-5

Ales Melecky, Daniel Paksi

引用次数: 0

Expected inflation and interest-rate dynamics in the COVID era: evidence from the time–frequency domain COVID 时代的预期通胀和利率动态：来自时频域的证据

IF 1.3 4区经济学

Empirica Pub Date : 2024-04-05 DOI: 10.1007/s10663-024-09610-6

Mihai Ioan Mutascu, Scott W. Hegerty

{"title":"Expected inflation and interest-rate dynamics in the COVID era: evidence from the time–frequency domain","authors":"Mihai Ioan Mutascu, Scott W. Hegerty","doi":"10.1007/s10663-024-09610-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-024-09610-6","url":null,"abstract":"The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States may have led investors or other individuals to expect sharp drops in output and rising prices, as well as drastic changes in fiscal and/or monetary to deal with the crisis. This paper analyses the co-movement between expected inflation and interest in the U.S. by using a battery of wavelet tools over the period from January 21, 2020 to March 28, 2022. Wavelet methods are used to examine the linkages between expected inflation and nominal interest rates of varying terms, focusing on the direction of co-movement and their sub-time horizons. Both bivariate wavelet and partial wavelet models that incorporate daily COVID-19 case counts or a financial stress variable find that the relationship holds primarily in the longer short-run (more than 6 months), with connections stronger for maturities of 5 years than for 1 year or less. The expectation related to the ‘inflation–interest rate’ nexus and type of bond maturity seem to be significantly shaped by the pandemic peak and anticipated duration of the disease. More precisely, the longer the anticipated duration of the pandemic is, the higher the expected inflation rate, bond yield rate, and maturity are. The interaction between expected inflation and interest seems to be very sensitive to pandemic and financial stress in terms of lead-lag status, in the very short to short-run, for 5 and 10 years bond maturity. This seems to be explained by investor hazard to a new particular unknown stimulus caused by the pandemic and its socio-economic consequences.","PeriodicalId":46526,"journal":{"name":"Empirica","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140593752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Income inequality, economic openness and current account imbalances in new EU member states 欧盟新成员国的收入不平等、经济开放度和经常账户失衡问题

IF 1.3 4区经济学

Empirica Pub Date : 2024-03-27 DOI: 10.1007/s10663-024-09606-2

Boris Cota, Nataša Erjavec, Saša Jakšić

{"title":"Income inequality, economic openness and current account imbalances in new EU member states","authors":"Boris Cota, Nataša Erjavec, Saša Jakšić","doi":"10.1007/s10663-024-09606-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-024-09606-2","url":null,"abstract":"Three decades before the Great Recession (the 2008 financial and economic crisis) were marked by the continuous growth of current account imbalances and income inequality. This period of high globalization is accompanied by financial liberalization and an increase in trade openness. The empirical investigations of the causes of global imbalances show that growing income inequalities are worsening the current account. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, new EU member states experienced an increase in trade openness accompanied by current account deficits and financial liberalization, but also an increase in income inequality. The Great Recession led to a decrease in imports in these countries and an improvement in the current account. The goal of our research is primarily to examine the relationship between income inequality, current account, and economic openness in the new EU member states. We show that rising income inequality linked with financial liberalization is connected with the deterioration of the current account in new EU member states. Financial liberalization relates to an increase in household domestic debt, contributing to a deterioration of the current account.","PeriodicalId":46526,"journal":{"name":"Empirica","volume":"249 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140323683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Debiasing the availability heuristic in student loan decision-making 消除学生贷款决策中的可得性启发式

IF 1.3 4区经济学

Empirica Pub Date : 2024-03-26 DOI: 10.1007/s10663-024-09609-z

Manuel Salas-Velasco

{"title":"Debiasing the availability heuristic in student loan decision-making","authors":"Manuel Salas-Velasco","doi":"10.1007/s10663-024-09609-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-024-09609-z","url":null,"abstract":"The availability heuristic is a cognitive bias that affects various aspects of decision-making, including financial decisions. Based on a randomized controlled experiment, this study assesses the effectiveness of a debiasing treatment designed to prevent the effect of the availability heuristic in student loan decision-making. Experimental subjects were explained that there is a bias that may affect the decision of whether or not to pursue a master’s degree and take out a graduate loan to finance it, and they were recommended to base their decision on reliable and verified sources of information as well as expert advice. This specific debiasing strategy is tested empirically. Specifically, this study shows positive causal effects of the debiasing intervention on two indices of student loan decision-making, which were constructed as summary indicators of student loan debt attitude, the perception that significant referents approve the student loan indebtedness, financial self-efficacy in student loan decision-making, and graduate loan borrowing intention. The article highlights the need for higher education institutions seeking to make financial education effective to be concerned with reporting on (and raising awareness of) psychological factors that are present in making financial decisions as well.","PeriodicalId":46526,"journal":{"name":"Empirica","volume":"57 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140302950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The response of small firms to VAT incentive: evidence from South Korea 小企业对增值税激励措施的反应：来自韩国的证据

IF 1.3 4区经济学

Empirica Pub Date : 2024-03-05 DOI: 10.1007/s10663-024-09607-1

Dawoon Jung

引用次数: 0

Positive and negative health events and trust 积极和消极的健康事件与信任

IF 1.3 4区经济学

Empirica Pub Date : 2024-02-19 DOI: 10.1007/s10663-024-09605-3

引用次数: 0

European highways and the geographic diffusion of economic activities from agglomerations to less urbanised areas 欧洲高速公路与经济活动从城市群向城市化程度较低地区的地理扩散

IF 1.3 4区经济学