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Investment dynamics in central and eastern Europe: a nonlinear approach 中欧和东欧的投资动态：一种非线性方法
IF 2.2 3区 经济学
Post-Communist Economies Pub Date : 2023-05-10 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2209296
Estefanía Mourelle, J. C. Cuestas
{"title":"Investment dynamics in central and eastern Europe: a nonlinear approach","authors":"Estefanía Mourelle, J. C. Cuestas","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2023.2209296","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2209296","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The aim of this article is to understand the dynamics of investment in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). The role that investment plays in the economic development is of particular interest in these countries, as, on the one hand, they have experienced a transition to market economies and, on the other hand, they have joined the European Union. This study contributes to the related literature by resorting to nonlinear models, which give us a better and more flexible understanding of the behaviour of the dynamics of investment, in comparison to linear specifications. The aim is to analyse which economic fundamentals are behind the nonlinear behaviour, as stated by the theoretical literature, of our variable of interest. Our results evidence the importance of the macroeconomic conditions on the dynamics of investment in CEECs, particularly its own recent history and the cyclical state of the economy.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42028814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can foreign investors accurately operate and obtain excess returns? Evidence from China 外国投资者能否准确操作并获得超额收益？来自中国的证据
IF 2.2 3区 经济学
Post-Communist Economies Pub Date : 2023-05-07 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2209301
Muhammad Jameel Hussain, S. Huang, Junbao Li
{"title":"Can foreign investors accurately operate and obtain excess returns? Evidence from China","authors":"Muhammad Jameel Hussain, S. Huang, Junbao Li","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2023.2209301","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2209301","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study examines the influence of foreign investors’ trading strategies on the earnings of China’s A-shares based on trading data from Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Exchanges during the period of 2017 to 2020. The findings indicate a positive association between the net inflow of foreign capital and A-share returns, with foreign investors showing a preference for high-quality stocks in China. Additionally, foreign investors demonstrate precision in their operations, by purchasing stocks at low prices and selling them at high prices. Moreover, A-shares held by foreign investors show an ability to generate excess earnings, which can further amplify over time. Additional analyses suggest that when the A-share index rises, foreign investors sell significantly, but the buying volume is not significant; when the A-share index falls, foreign investors buy significantly, but the selling volume is not significant. When Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect is closed, foreign investors will choose to sell more on the previous trading day in order to reduce their losses. This article provides powerful enlightenment for stock investors.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45148755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Misuse of institutions and economic performance: some evidence from Serbia 制度滥用与经济绩效:来自塞尔维亚的一些证据
IF 2.2 3区 经济学
Post-Communist Economies Pub Date : 2023-05-07 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2209344
Marko Tmušič
{"title":"Misuse of institutions and economic performance: some evidence from Serbia","authors":"Marko Tmušič","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2023.2209344","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2209344","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Having in mind the current global trends and the transition processes, it is necessary to explain the role, influence, and importance of institutions in providing conditions for economic growth and development. Theory has proven, and practice confirms, that the institutional structure (the way of forming institutions, decision-making process, decision-making effectiveness, and economic justification of goals) is one of the most important factors in achieving macroeconomic stability and economic development. This article explores the impact of the quality of institutions on the economic performance of the Republic of Serbia. A comparative analysis of the content of relevant institutional indicators and their economic effects shows the institutional matrix of possible misuse of political and economic institutions in the direction of realising short-term political goals, to the detriment of long-term sustainable economic growth and development of the Serbian economy.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45301142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does one belt and one road initiative facilitate China‘s export of equipment? 一带一路倡议是否有利于中国设备出口？
IF 2.2 3区 经济学
Post-Communist Economies Pub Date : 2023-05-05 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2209300
Mantian Xue, Yuexian Wang
{"title":"Does one belt and one road initiative facilitate China‘s export of equipment?","authors":"Mantian Xue, Yuexian Wang","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2023.2209300","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2209300","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This article uses difference in difference estimation to examine the effect of the One Belt and One Road Initiative on China’s export of equipment to related countries, taking into consideration the different times of policy shock for different countries. The results show that signing the agreement induced a 14.07% increase of China’s export of equipment to the group of countries, which were focused on Asian and African economies, in sub-industries of electrical machinery, general equipment and special equipment, and probably through the financing mechanism of China’s transnational credit. Simply assigning the year when the One Belt and One Road Initiative is launched as the uniform time of policy shock may be misleading.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43649442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
International labour migration and people’s views towards economic and political systems in transition countries 国际劳工移徙和过渡国家人民对经济和政治制度的看法
IF 2.2 3区 经济学
Post-Communist Economies Pub Date : 2023-04-11 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2196867
Daichi Yamada, Masato Hiwatari
{"title":"International labour migration and people’s views towards economic and political systems in transition countries","authors":"Daichi Yamada, Masato Hiwatari","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2023.2196867","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2196867","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT During the 30 years of transition from communist regimes, the people’s views towards transition have varied from support to opposition. We empirically examine the influences of international labour migration on these views, using the survey data covering 28 transition countries in Europe and the former Soviet Union area and three points of time, 2006, 2010 and 2016, based on multivariate regression models. Our main findings are twofold. (I) Labour emigration to Western Europe increased people’s support for a market economy and democracy over a planned economy and authoritarian government, albeit a less robust result for democracy. This suggests the role of social remittances – migrants transmit their experiences and promote the support for transition among people remaining in the home countries. (II) However, immigrant inflows reduced these support, suggesting that the economic and cultural conflicts with immigrants made people sceptic towards liberal policies or nostalgic towards the communist era.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47494492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of fdi and regional factors on economic growth in Vietnamese provinces: A spatial econometric analysis 外商直接投资与区域因素对越南各省经济增长的影响:一个空间计量分析
IF 2.2 3区 经济学
Post-Communist Economies Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2196869
Hoang Hong Hiep, Bui Nhat Quang, Huynh Cong Minh
{"title":"The impact of fdi and regional factors on economic growth in Vietnamese provinces: A spatial econometric analysis","authors":"Hoang Hong Hiep, Bui Nhat Quang, Huynh Cong Minh","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2023.2196869","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2196869","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT By using spatial econometric models, this paper studies the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and regional spatial factors on economic growth of 63 provinces in Vietnam over the period 2007–2018. Results show that, after controlling for the important factors of the growth model (human capital, physical capital, and institutional quality), FDI inflows have a rather limited direct and indirect impact in boosting economic growth of localities in Vietnam. Results from the estimation of spatial variables show three especially interesting key points: i) there is a close relationship in economic growth and economic shocks among neighbouring provinces; ii) capitals from state sector and domestic non-state sector of neighbouring provinces have a positive impact on economic growth in the host province; and iii) surprisingly, there is a trend of competition among neighbouring localities in attracting not only high-quality human resources but also in terms of untrained human resources.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44821547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Human capital and economic growth in Central Asia 中亚地区人力资本与经济增长
IF 2.2 3区 经济学
Post-Communist Economies Pub Date : 2023-04-07 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2196872
M. Yormirzoev
{"title":"Human capital and economic growth in Central Asia","authors":"M. Yormirzoev","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2023.2196872","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2196872","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study explores the long-term economic performance in former Soviet republics of Central Asia for the last three decades. We look at sources of economic growth based on the extended version of the neoclassical growth model. Our key focus is to see whether human capital in the form of education and health inputs has an impact on growth rates in the region. Results show that over the entire period under study, on average, the growth rates of total factor productivity (TFP) were not remarkable, ranging from 1.4% for Kazakhstan and 0.51% for Tajikistan to −1.13% for the Kyrgyz Republic. Kazakhstan as a frontier economy of the region maintained better economic results in almost all indicators. Since 2000, TFP growth rates were notably stronger in Tajikistan compared to Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic. However, a reduction in TFP in Tajikistan in the 1990s is attributed to the country’s dire civil war.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44586058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Convergence patterns in income and manufacturing productivity in EU: does the latter drive the former? 欧盟收入和制造业生产率的趋同模式：后者是否推动前者？
IF 2.2 3区 经济学
Post-Communist Economies Pub Date : 2023-03-30 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2188774
P. Petrović, Mirjana Gligorić Matić
{"title":"Convergence patterns in income and manufacturing productivity in EU: does the latter drive the former?","authors":"P. Petrović, Mirjana Gligorić Matić","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2023.2188774","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2188774","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT While exploring convergence in real income and in manufacturing productivity of the central and eastern European countries (CEE) and the southern EU counties with the developed EU ones, testing and clustering methodology and sigma convergence are used. We found that CEE countries strongly converge, both in real income and manufacturing productivity, with developed EU countries, while the southern EU countries do not. Moreover, the convergence pattern in real income follows that in manufacturing productivity in both peripheral EU groups suggesting that the underlying productivity clubs determine the formation of income clubs. The observed time pattern of sigma convergence also suggests that manufacturing productivity drives economic growth, as (non)convergence of the former preceded (‘caused’) that of the latter. Aforementioned findings are robust, since they are supported by the results obtained both by the Phillips and Sul (2007) approach and sigma convergence.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47241723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The performance of politically connected firms in South East Europe: state capture or business capture? 东南欧政治关联企业的表现:国家俘获还是商业俘获?
IF 2.2 3区 经济学
Post-Communist Economies Pub Date : 2023-03-28 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2188694
W. Bartlett
{"title":"The performance of politically connected firms in South East Europe: state capture or business capture?","authors":"W. Bartlett","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2023.2188694","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2188694","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This article investigates the effects of the political connectedness on the business performance of private sector firms in South East Europe. This question is relevant to contemporary ideas about the importance of ‘state capture’ in the region, and the article provides a new perspective on the nature and consequences of this phenomenon. Analysis of survey data reveals that political connections tend to undermine the business performance of connected firms, with a potential negative impact on the economic development of the countries concerned. It is argued that this process is better described as ‘business capture’ rather than ‘state capture’. The terminology is important as it suggests how policies might be used to manage this issue. The negative effect on business performance is substantial, especially in service sectors and in countries of the Western Balkans. The EU member states of the region are relatively immune from the negative effects of business capture.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47551996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Time interval choices in forecasting stock market indices of CEE and SEE countries 中东欧和SEE国家股市指数预测的时间间隔选择
IF 2.2 3区 经济学
Post-Communist Economies Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2188768
Silvija Vlah Jerić
{"title":"Time interval choices in forecasting stock market indices of CEE and SEE countries","authors":"Silvija Vlah Jerić","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2023.2188768","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2188768","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The main objective of this analysis is to investigate how varying the forecast horizon and the input window length for calculating technical indicators affects the predictive performance of different machine learning algorithms on forecasting the direction of change of chosen stock market indices. Ten indices from CEE (Central and Eastern European) and SEE (Southern and Eastern European) countries are chosen for research in an attempt to investigate their behaviour in the light of the behaviour of bigger and more researched markets. In respect to similar research conducted on S&P 500 Index stocks, this analysis does not find the same pattern of highest system performance for each forecast horizon value when the input window length is approximately equal to the forecasting horizon. Instead, the forecasts seem to be better using shorter input window lengths for technical indicators in general. Also, on average, there is a notable deterioration in the performance with the increase of forecasting horizon. Furthermore, some algorithms perform very well for short horizons and then deteriorate substantially as the forecasting horizon increases, while others seem to have more consistent performance over different horizons.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43305479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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