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Is there an asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on exports and imports in the Central, East and Southeast European countries? 汇率波动对中欧、东欧和东南欧国家的进出口是否存在不对称影响？
IF 2.2 3区 经济学
Post-Communist Economies Pub Date : 2023-05-23 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2210925
Safet Kurtović, N. Maxhuni, B. Halili, Arta Maxhuni
{"title":"Is there an asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on exports and imports in the Central, East and Southeast European countries?","authors":"Safet Kurtović, N. Maxhuni, B. Halili, Arta Maxhuni","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2023.2210925","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2210925","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The main objective of this paper is to assess the asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on the exports and imports of 17 Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) countries. For this purpose, the linear and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and annual data for the 1995–2020 period were used. Empirical results of the assessment showed an asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on exports in nine countries and a symmetric effect on exports in four countries. Similarly, an asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on the imports of 10 countries and a symmetric effect on the imports of five countries were found. Research implications of this study are important to enable policy makers to understand that results obtained in earlier studies through the linear model may lead to incorrect views about the effect of exchange rate volatility on the exports and imports of CESEE countries.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":"35 1","pages":"597 - 618"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46334850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Migrants remittances and fertility in the Post-Soviet states 后苏联国家移民汇款与生育率
IF 2.2 3区 经济学
Post-Communist Economies Pub Date : 2023-05-13 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2210365
Boburmirzo Ibrokhimov, Rashid Javed, Mazhar Mughal
{"title":"Migrants remittances and fertility in the Post-Soviet states","authors":"Boburmirzo Ibrokhimov, Rashid Javed, Mazhar Mughal","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2023.2210365","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2210365","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The demographic consequences of remittance flows to the developing countries have so far received scant attention. In this study, we examine the impact of migrants’ remittances on fertility by employing unbalanced panel data from Post-Soviet states. During the last three decades, these countries witnessed large-scale out-migration accompanied by high inflows of migrants’ remittances, and went from a high mortality – high birth rate to a low mortality – low birth rate regime. Employing standard panel estimation methods and instrumental variable (IV) approach, we find evidence for a significant negative association between remittances and fertility. These findings are robust to alternate measures and strategies. The impact of remittances is significant beyond a minimum threshold and has strengthened over time. The findings of the study highlight the remittances’ substitution effect contributing to the post-communist countries’ demographic transition.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":"35 1","pages":"574 - 596"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42451777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Investment dynamics in central and eastern Europe: a nonlinear approach 中欧和东欧的投资动态：一种非线性方法
IF 2.2 3区 经济学
Post-Communist Economies Pub Date : 2023-05-10 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2209296
Estefanía Mourelle, J. C. Cuestas
{"title":"Investment dynamics in central and eastern Europe: a nonlinear approach","authors":"Estefanía Mourelle, J. C. Cuestas","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2023.2209296","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2209296","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The aim of this article is to understand the dynamics of investment in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). The role that investment plays in the economic development is of particular interest in these countries, as, on the one hand, they have experienced a transition to market economies and, on the other hand, they have joined the European Union. This study contributes to the related literature by resorting to nonlinear models, which give us a better and more flexible understanding of the behaviour of the dynamics of investment, in comparison to linear specifications. The aim is to analyse which economic fundamentals are behind the nonlinear behaviour, as stated by the theoretical literature, of our variable of interest. Our results evidence the importance of the macroeconomic conditions on the dynamics of investment in CEECs, particularly its own recent history and the cyclical state of the economy.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":"35 1","pages":"496 - 512"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42028814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can foreign investors accurately operate and obtain excess returns? Evidence from China 外国投资者能否准确操作并获得超额收益？来自中国的证据
IF 2.2 3区 经济学
Post-Communist Economies Pub Date : 2023-05-07 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2209301
Muhammad Jameel Hussain, S. Huang, Junbao Li
{"title":"Can foreign investors accurately operate and obtain excess returns? Evidence from China","authors":"Muhammad Jameel Hussain, S. Huang, Junbao Li","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2023.2209301","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2209301","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study examines the influence of foreign investors’ trading strategies on the earnings of China’s A-shares based on trading data from Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Exchanges during the period of 2017 to 2020. The findings indicate a positive association between the net inflow of foreign capital and A-share returns, with foreign investors showing a preference for high-quality stocks in China. Additionally, foreign investors demonstrate precision in their operations, by purchasing stocks at low prices and selling them at high prices. Moreover, A-shares held by foreign investors show an ability to generate excess earnings, which can further amplify over time. Additional analyses suggest that when the A-share index rises, foreign investors sell significantly, but the buying volume is not significant; when the A-share index falls, foreign investors buy significantly, but the selling volume is not significant. When Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect is closed, foreign investors will choose to sell more on the previous trading day in order to reduce their losses. This article provides powerful enlightenment for stock investors.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":"35 1","pages":"513 - 532"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45148755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Misuse of institutions and economic performance: some evidence from Serbia 制度滥用与经济绩效:来自塞尔维亚的一些证据
IF 2.2 3区 经济学
Post-Communist Economies Pub Date : 2023-05-07 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2209344
Marko Tmušič
{"title":"Misuse of institutions and economic performance: some evidence from Serbia","authors":"Marko Tmušič","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2023.2209344","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2209344","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Having in mind the current global trends and the transition processes, it is necessary to explain the role, influence, and importance of institutions in providing conditions for economic growth and development. Theory has proven, and practice confirms, that the institutional structure (the way of forming institutions, decision-making process, decision-making effectiveness, and economic justification of goals) is one of the most important factors in achieving macroeconomic stability and economic development. This article explores the impact of the quality of institutions on the economic performance of the Republic of Serbia. A comparative analysis of the content of relevant institutional indicators and their economic effects shows the institutional matrix of possible misuse of political and economic institutions in the direction of realising short-term political goals, to the detriment of long-term sustainable economic growth and development of the Serbian economy.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":"35 1","pages":"546 - 573"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45301142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does one belt and one road initiative facilitate China‘s export of equipment? 一带一路倡议是否有利于中国设备出口？
IF 2.2 3区 经济学
Post-Communist Economies Pub Date : 2023-05-05 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2209300
Mantian Xue, Yuexian Wang
{"title":"Does one belt and one road initiative facilitate China‘s export of equipment?","authors":"Mantian Xue, Yuexian Wang","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2023.2209300","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2209300","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This article uses difference in difference estimation to examine the effect of the One Belt and One Road Initiative on China’s export of equipment to related countries, taking into consideration the different times of policy shock for different countries. The results show that signing the agreement induced a 14.07% increase of China’s export of equipment to the group of countries, which were focused on Asian and African economies, in sub-industries of electrical machinery, general equipment and special equipment, and probably through the financing mechanism of China’s transnational credit. Simply assigning the year when the One Belt and One Road Initiative is launched as the uniform time of policy shock may be misleading.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":"35 1","pages":"441 - 453"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43649442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
International labour migration and people’s views towards economic and political systems in transition countries 国际劳工移徙和过渡国家人民对经济和政治制度的看法
IF 2.2 3区 经济学
Post-Communist Economies Pub Date : 2023-04-11 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2196867
Daichi Yamada, Masato Hiwatari
{"title":"International labour migration and people’s views towards economic and political systems in transition countries","authors":"Daichi Yamada, Masato Hiwatari","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2023.2196867","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2196867","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT During the 30 years of transition from communist regimes, the people’s views towards transition have varied from support to opposition. We empirically examine the influences of international labour migration on these views, using the survey data covering 28 transition countries in Europe and the former Soviet Union area and three points of time, 2006, 2010 and 2016, based on multivariate regression models. Our main findings are twofold. (I) Labour emigration to Western Europe increased people’s support for a market economy and democracy over a planned economy and authoritarian government, albeit a less robust result for democracy. This suggests the role of social remittances – migrants transmit their experiences and promote the support for transition among people remaining in the home countries. (II) However, immigrant inflows reduced these support, suggesting that the economic and cultural conflicts with immigrants made people sceptic towards liberal policies or nostalgic towards the communist era.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":"35 1","pages":"475 - 495"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47494492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of fdi and regional factors on economic growth in Vietnamese provinces: A spatial econometric analysis 外商直接投资与区域因素对越南各省经济增长的影响:一个空间计量分析
IF 2.2 3区 经济学
Post-Communist Economies Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2196869
Hoang Hong Hiep, Bui Nhat Quang, Huynh Cong Minh
{"title":"The impact of fdi and regional factors on economic growth in Vietnamese provinces: A spatial econometric analysis","authors":"Hoang Hong Hiep, Bui Nhat Quang, Huynh Cong Minh","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2023.2196869","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2196869","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT By using spatial econometric models, this paper studies the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and regional spatial factors on economic growth of 63 provinces in Vietnam over the period 2007–2018. Results show that, after controlling for the important factors of the growth model (human capital, physical capital, and institutional quality), FDI inflows have a rather limited direct and indirect impact in boosting economic growth of localities in Vietnam. Results from the estimation of spatial variables show three especially interesting key points: i) there is a close relationship in economic growth and economic shocks among neighbouring provinces; ii) capitals from state sector and domestic non-state sector of neighbouring provinces have a positive impact on economic growth in the host province; and iii) surprisingly, there is a trend of competition among neighbouring localities in attracting not only high-quality human resources but also in terms of untrained human resources.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":"35 1","pages":"454 - 474"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44821547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Human capital and economic growth in Central Asia 中亚地区人力资本与经济增长
IF 2.2 3区 经济学
Post-Communist Economies Pub Date : 2023-04-07 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2196872
M. Yormirzoev
{"title":"Human capital and economic growth in Central Asia","authors":"M. Yormirzoev","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2023.2196872","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2196872","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study explores the long-term economic performance in former Soviet republics of Central Asia for the last three decades. We look at sources of economic growth based on the extended version of the neoclassical growth model. Our key focus is to see whether human capital in the form of education and health inputs has an impact on growth rates in the region. Results show that over the entire period under study, on average, the growth rates of total factor productivity (TFP) were not remarkable, ranging from 1.4% for Kazakhstan and 0.51% for Tajikistan to −1.13% for the Kyrgyz Republic. Kazakhstan as a frontier economy of the region maintained better economic results in almost all indicators. Since 2000, TFP growth rates were notably stronger in Tajikistan compared to Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic. However, a reduction in TFP in Tajikistan in the 1990s is attributed to the country’s dire civil war.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":"35 1","pages":"533 - 545"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44586058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Convergence patterns in income and manufacturing productivity in EU: does the latter drive the former? 欧盟收入和制造业生产率的趋同模式：后者是否推动前者？
IF 2.2 3区 经济学
Post-Communist Economies Pub Date : 2023-03-30 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2188774
P. Petrović, Mirjana Gligorić Matić
{"title":"Convergence patterns in income and manufacturing productivity in EU: does the latter drive the former?","authors":"P. Petrović, Mirjana Gligorić Matić","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2023.2188774","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2188774","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT While exploring convergence in real income and in manufacturing productivity of the central and eastern European countries (CEE) and the southern EU counties with the developed EU ones, testing and clustering methodology and sigma convergence are used. We found that CEE countries strongly converge, both in real income and manufacturing productivity, with developed EU countries, while the southern EU countries do not. Moreover, the convergence pattern in real income follows that in manufacturing productivity in both peripheral EU groups suggesting that the underlying productivity clubs determine the formation of income clubs. The observed time pattern of sigma convergence also suggests that manufacturing productivity drives economic growth, as (non)convergence of the former preceded (‘caused’) that of the latter. Aforementioned findings are robust, since they are supported by the results obtained both by the Phillips and Sul (2007) approach and sigma convergence.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":"35 1","pages":"414 - 439"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47241723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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